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Season 8 Official Trailer

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2 hours ago, Ser Uncle P said:

Don't forget D&D were asked by GRRM on Jon's parentage years before the show was made. 

No, they were asked “who is Jon Snow’s mother”, there is a difference.

2 hours ago, Ser Uncle P said:

It's so central to the plot of the whole saga that it's inconceivable that D&D just made it up like, say,  Jaime's jolly to Dorne or Asha visiting the Dreadfort. 

On top of the hints in the books, the evidence puts the R+L deniers straight into tinfoil hat land! 

And as I said above, I am on the R+L=J camp, and have been for a very long time. Still, I don’t take anything the Ds put on the show as confirmation - not for Jon’s parentage, nor anything else. 

And sure, some of the theories for this are nonsensical and don’t fit the timeline, and have many other issues. But others aren’t. So, if I don’t take the show as confirmation, and I fully believe it to be true, I can totally understand why someone who doesn’t believe in R+L=J to not take the show as confirmation either. 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

What's odd to me is that people are so certain about this.

The entire Ramsay vs Jon story line from season 6 would fit like a square peg in a round hole in the books. What would it achieve, other than ruining Stannis's arc and delaying the arrival of the Others? There's no long standing rivalry between Jon and Ramsay that needs to pay off, no immediate stakes to drive the conflict - Ramsay doesn't have Rickon and he never abused Sansa. Why would we be invested in this story? Would there be any tension at all, would we really expect a freshly resurrected Jon to lose to Ramsay Bolton? Winds is the penultimate installment in the series, how could such a story line be seen as anything other than filler, eating precious page space from the real endgame?

When it comes to the show, however, they had every reason to delay the Others as much as they could, because dressing up actors in prosthetics and CGI-ing zombies is expensive... And what's probably even more expensive is covering everything with snow, which they avoided doing for the longest time, even though the North should have been blanketed with thick layers of it as far back as season 5 (it would be a bit hard for the Vale army to reach Winterfell like that, or do much fighting at all). Even in the season 8 trailer snow looks like a light spring sprinkling.

If you look at the specific circumstances of both the books and the show, it should become obvious that some story lines didn't come from George.

No one really argues that what is happening in the show is how it is exactly playing out in the books. And the reasons have been dicussed millions of times, not only by book fans, but also by people who understand TV (who can provide a way better analysis than book fans, because this is at the end of the day a TV show and not a audiobook)  and last but not least by the producers and the writers of the show. The main points are the following:

- The overall story will be the same, except GRRM decided to change his story in the meantime. 

- There are huge deviations regarding how the show tells the story. Most importantly is, they use shortcuts to get from Point A to Point B. But point B ist still point B. (e.g. Jon is still the son of Rhaegar and Lyana). 

- It will spoil the outcome of the main storylines of the book. It probably won't spoil the fate of side or minor characters, since as told by GRRM several times, he has no idea what the fate of those characters will be. 

This has been told by the writers dozens of times, since the show went ahead of the books. 

It is still up to you, to decide if knowing the outcome and knowing some plotpoints is a spoiler to you. And that is basically it. There is no reason to fight about this. 

Edited by T and A

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5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, they were asked “who is Jon Snow’s mother”, there is a difference.

And as I said above, I am on the R+L=J camp, and have been for a very long time. Still, I don’t take anything the Ds put on the show as confirmation - not for Jon’s parentage, nor anything else. 

And sure, some of the theories for this are nonsensical and don’t fit the timeline, and have many other issues. But others aren’t. So, if I don’t take the show as confirmation, and I fully believe it to be true, I can totally understand why someone who doesn’t believe in R+L=J to not take the show as confirmation either. 

Also (trying to do this from memory) he never said they were right, correct? He just smiled and then D&D just "knew" they were right. Unless there was another article that explained it better.

I think ?+L=J is probably most likely but it's pretty heavy handed, in regards to his mother, not his father (in my opinion) in the books. I still wouldn't put it past George to be doing a sort of fake out on it. For what means and ends though? No idea. And couldn't begin to guess....

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13 minutes ago, btfu806 said:

Also (trying to do this from memory) he never said they were right, correct? He just smiled and then D&D just "knew" they were right. Unless there was another article that explained it better.

I think ?+L=J is probably most likely but it's pretty heavy handed, in regards to his mother, not his father (in my opinion) in the books. I still wouldn't put it past George to be doing a sort of fake out on it. For what means and ends though? No idea. And couldn't begin to guess....

They had this conversation with him on their first meeting, where they tried to convince him about the show. This was before they even begun writing for the show, not to speak about producing or even airing. They had a lot of meetings with him again since then. They definitively got an answer to that question. And as confirmed by both sides, they had a big meeting with him after season 2 ended and they knew they are gonna surpass the books back then. In this meeting that took several days, they got the outline of the story that GRRM intented to be. Of course things may have change in the mean time. My point is, they definitively know first handedly who Jons parents are. 

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10 minutes ago, T and A said:

They had this conversation with him on their first meeting, where they tried to convince him about the show. This was before they even begun writing for the show, not to speak about producing or even airing. They had a lot of meetings with him again since then. They definitively got an answer to that question. And as confirmed by both sides, they had a big meeting with him after season 2 ended and they knew they are gonna surpass the books back then. In this meeting that took several days, they got the outline of the story that GRRM intented to be. Of course things may have change in the mean time. My point is, they definitively know first handedly who Jons parents are. 

You're probably right. I just always found it odd that GRRM just smiled and never told them they were right and this went to print. You could argue that for the book people who guessed R+L=J the show runners didn't want to confirm it or something. That would make sense. 

I don't know, it was always something that caught my attention and didn't know if there was another article about it, confirming it more or something.

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2 hours ago, T and A said:

No one really argues that what is happening in the show is how it is exactly playing out in the books. And the reasons have been dicussed millions of times, not only by book fans, but also by people who understand TV (who can provide a way better analysis than book fans, because this is at the end of the day a TV show and not a audiobook)  and last but not least by the producers and the writers of the show. The main points are the following:

- The overall story will be the same, except GRRM decided to change his story in the meantime. 

- There are huge deviations regarding how the show tells the story. Most importantly is, they use shortcuts to get from Point A to Point B. But point B ist still point B. (e.g. Jon is still the son of Rhaegar and Lyana). 

- It will spoil the outcome of the main storylines of the book. It probably won't spoil the fate of side or minor characters, since as told by GRRM several times, he has no idea what the fate of those characters will be. 

This has been told by the writers dozens of times, since the show went ahead of the books. 

It is still up to you, to decide if knowing the outcome and knowing some plotpoints is a spoiler to you. And that is basically it. There is no reason to fight about this. 

But how do you know which particular situations are "point A" and "point B" and which are the shortcuts or inventions? That's the really tough question.

You can't say Jaime going to Dorne to save Myrcella is a plot point from the book. You can't say Sansa marrying Ramsay is a plot point from the book either, since she was obviously assigned a different character's plot line. Will she be raped? It's impossible to tell if that is a plot point from Sansa's arc or simply something she went through because it happened to Jeyne (and frankly because it was inevitable given the circumstances).

There are certain plot points where the show confirms or reinforces an already solid theory, such as R+L-J. The Cersei-Euron alliance also make sense, it's something I can easily imagine happening, but without the show it would have been a much less solid theory. That Dany and Jon would eventually meet was also a given, since all story lines must converge or at least intersect in order to justify being part of the same series.

However, seeing how D&D removed entirely major characters like Aegon and completely reworked the Dornish plot line, I can't imagine them being too faithful, especially if it's an issue of production cost or complexity. I have to believe they would be very reluctant to introduce new characters and locations, especially cities*, and like I said in the previous comment, it would have been in their interest to delay and limit the magnitude of winter as much as possible. All of these things could have an enormous impact on the accuracy of the adaptation, much bigger than the fates of some secondary characters.

You say the outcome will be the same, but how much does that mean? I've been theorizing that the remaining books will be about a massive Exodus to Essos triggered by the invasion of the Others. This couldn't be more different from what we've seen in seasons 6 and 7, as well as the bits and pieces from the season 8 trailer. My scenario features no big battle of Winterfell and no return to Westeros for Danerys... and yet if the Night King wins in episode 3 and the rest of the season is about stealing Euron's fleet so the good guys can take their people east (since it's already been established that the Others do not swim), the outcome will be the same.

You should also keep in mind that D&D have proven themselves perfectly capable of lying when the stakes were high enough, they lied about Jon staying dead for a year. As for George, iirc he said they are using his ideas, which technically speaking also applies to the leaked outline George himself isn't following anymore. Neither of them has anything to win from admitting the stories are different at this point. Interest in the show might decrease if it comes out they're grossly deviating from the books, and George would somehow be blamed for it for not writing faster. Once Winds is ready to be published, however, George can easily say "Come read the real story!".

*I firmly believe that the Hardhome episode is repurposing an attack on White Harbor, which is foreshadowed in Davos II, ADwD.

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Your exodus theory is wrong.

While it isn't an exact science, we can certainly glean a lot from the show in terms of how the books will go.  We can reasonable surmise that the Tyrell family goes extinct or close to it, Marg will eventually lose to Cersei, not the other way around. We can reasonably surmise that Aegon and everyone in Dorne are also expendable, and not a factor in the end.  We can guess that the Vale army goes North.  We can guess that Dany loses a dragon.  We can guess that Euron is important enough in the end game that he is cast in the show.  We can guess that whatever happens with Stoneheart, it could be cut.  We can guess that Cersei stays alive a lot longer that many expected and may stay alive until almost the end.  

Anyone who is still clinging to the idea that Rhaegar and Lyanna are not Jon's parents is deluded.  IMO

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

But how do you know which particular situations are "point A" and "point B" and which are the shortcuts or inventions? That's the really tough question.

You can't say Jaime going to Dorne to save Myrcella is a plot point from the book. You can't say Sansa marrying Ramsay is a p7lot point from the book either, since she was obviously assigned a different character's plot line. Will she be raped? It's impossible to tell if that is a plot point from Sansa's arc or simply something she went through because it happened to Jeyne (and frankly because it was inevitable given the circumstances).

There are certain plot points where the show confirms or reinforces an already solid theory, such as R+L-J. The Cersei-Euron alliance also make sense, it's something I can easily imagine happening, but without the show it would have been a much less solid theory. That Dany and Jon would eventually meet was also a given, since all story lines must converge or at least intersect in order to justify being part of the same series.

However, seeing how D&D removed entirely major characters like Aegon and completely reworked the Dornish plot line, I can't imagine them being too faithful, especially if it's an issue of production cost or complexity. I have to believe they would be very reluctant to introduce new characters and locations, especially cities*, and like I said in the previous comment, it would have been in their interest to delay and limit the magnitude of winter as much as possible. All of these things could have an enormous impact on the accuracy of the adaptation, much bigger than the fates of some secondary characters.

You say the outcome will be the same, but how much does that mean? I've been theorizing that the remaining books will be about a massive Exodus to Essos triggered by the invasion of the Others. This couldn't be more different from what we've seen in seasons 6 and 7, as well as the bits and pieces from the season 8 trailer. My scenario features no big battle of Winterfell and no return to Westeros for Danerys... and yet if the Night King wins in episode 3 and the rest of the season is about stealing Euron's fleet so the good guys can take their people east (since it's already been established that the Others do not swim), the outcome will be the same.

You should also keep in mind that D&D have proven themselves perfectly capable of lying when the stakes were high enough, they lied about Jon staying dead for a year. As for George, iirc he said they are using his ideas, which technically speaking also applies to the leaked outline George himself isn't following anymore. Neither of them has anything to win from admitting the stories are different at this point. Interest in the show might decrease if it comes out they're grossly deviating from the books, and George would somehow be blamed for it for not writing faster. Once Winds is ready to be published, however, George can easily say "Come read the real story!".

*I firmly believe that the Hardhome episode is repurposing an attack on White Harbor, which is foreshadowed in Davos II, ADwD.

It is of course hard to explain without having the books. But you can do a backwards induction if you will. Take for example Season 5. Jon becomes LC, quite differently than in the books, he marshes to Hardhome (unlike the books) but he gets stabed and dies at the end. Just like in the books. Or take Daenerys story in Mereen: she has different problems than in the book, quite a lot of characters don't apear in her the story unlike in the books, she meats Tyrion (unlike in the books), yet at the end she disapears on Drogos back, just like in the books. You can take a lot more comparisons if you will. But the destiny is allways the same. I am ready to take any bet, that Jon will become King in the North ruling over Winterfell when Daenerys arrives. You can counterbet if you dare :P.  Will it happen like in the show? Probably not.

With the points I mean plotpoints, or in terms of television, acts. 

Edited by T and A

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35 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Your exodus theory is wrong.

The Exodus is the keystone that makes everything in Feast and Dance fall into place! :P I could be wrong, of course, George will ultimately write whatever he pleases, but if you do the math this makes more sense than anything else.

However, the reason I mentioned my theory (aside from the fact that I like to peddle it whenever I can) was to show that similar outcomes can be reached with wildly different stories (especially when said stories don't entirely need to follow any logic).

34 minutes ago, T and A said:

It is of course hard to explain without having the books. But you can do a backwards induction if you will. Take for example Season 5. Jon becomes LC, quite differently than in the books, he marshes to Hardhome (unlike the books) but he gets stabed and dies at the end. Just like in the books. Or take Daenerys story in Mereen: she has different problems than in the book, quite a lot of characters don't apear in her the story unlike in the books, she meats Tyrion (unlike in the books), yet at the end she disapears on Drogos back, just like in the books. You can take a lot more comparisons if you will. But the destiny is allways the same.

It's a lot easier to do it retroactively! :D

But let's indeed look at Meereen. In the books, the conflict with the other slave cities is the main plot line, and it ties together with the events in Storm and Clash. In the show it's kind of introduced, then waved away, and then the war is established an resolved within an episode and a quarter. At the point it actually came into play you can argue it could have been removed entirely. Assuming we didn't already have Dance, do you think you could have accurately predicted the story based on the show?

Can you say Cersei will specifically blow up the Sept of Baelor in order to kill the High Sparrow and the Tyrells, or is it possible that she uses wildfire against Aegon, and might destroy a lot more than a single building? Extrapolating from the perspective of someone who is familiar with TV shows, wouldn't you say D&D would be more reluctant to give up King's Landing than George, since it's an important shooting location they would have to replace with something else? In that sense, if Aegon was replaced entirely by the High Sparrow, is it really because he isn't important, or because D&D wanted a smaller scale face-off? The same question can be asked about a lot of things.

52 minutes ago, T and A said:

I am ready to take any bet, that Jon will become King in the North ruling over Winterfell when Daenerys arrives. You can counterbet if you dare :P.  Will it happen like in the show? Probably not.

I'm quite sure Jon will become the king of the wildlings and the northmen, the first because he saved their lives and the second because Robb's will named him his heir. Will he be ruling over Winterfell? That would be a bit too quaint. Again, you have to keep in mind that from D&D's perspective, that's a set they already have (complete with a full digital model for aerial shots) that viewers also happen to be emotionally attached to. For them Winterfell is like the Hangar Deck in BSG, or Walter's house in Breaking Bad. From a narrative perspective Winterfell is just a husk, since almost all of the people who lived there in AGoT are dead.

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1 hour ago, The Coconut God said:

It's a lot easier to do it retroactively! :D

Smartass :D. But a backwards induction is the scientific way of playing the game backwards :P.  A term used in Game Theory. Game of Thrones...Game Theory...get it :D...Yes it's bad I know.

 

1 hour ago, The Coconut God said:

Can you say Cersei will specifically blow up the Sept of Baelor in order to kill the High Sparrow and the Tyrells, or is it possible that she uses wildfire against Aegon, and might destroy a lot more than a single building?

No you can't. I already said, that you can not know how a specific plotpoint will be achieved in the books. But the Red Keep is definitively a goner in the books too. That is my Point B, that I mentioned. And that is all I said all the time. The journey of the book won't be spoiled. But, and this is a big but, crucial points of the destination will be spoiled. 

Is it a spoiler to know that Jon will come back? It is being suggested by book fans since they read Dance of the Dragons, but fans suggest things all the time. These are just fan theories. It happens on every ongoing book series. Before Deathly Hallows came out, it was a common known theory amongs fans,  that Harry is a Horcrux. Now imagine if JKR were as slow as GRRM and the final movie came out before she wrote the book, where the movie proves this theory. One could not argue, that Warner Bros didn't spoil anything, since it was a long known fan theory. 

At the end of the day, the joy to read the book won't be nullified. But you won't be surprised about the ending of the story, as if Game of Thrones would not exist.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, T and A said:

No you can't. I already said, that you can not know how a specific plotpoint will be achieved in the books. But the Red Keep is definitively a goner in the books too. That is my Point B, that I mentioned. And that is all I said all the time. The journey of the book won't be spoiled. But, and this is a big but, crucial points of the destination will be spoiled. 

Is it a spoiler to know that Jon will come back? It is being suggested by book fans since they read Dance of the Dragons, but fans suggest things all the time. These are just fan theories. It happens on every ongoing book series. Before Deathly Hallows came out, it was a common known theory amongs fans,  that Harry is a Horcrux. Now imagine if JKR were as slow as GRRM and the final movie came out before she wrote the book, where the movie proves this theory. One could not argue, that Warner Bros didn't spoil anything, since it was a long known fan theory. 

At the end of the day, the joy to read the book won't be nullified. But you won't be surprised about the ending of the story, as if Game of Thrones would not exist.

You are right here, some things will be spoiled. At the very least, the ending of season 8 will certainly color future theories.

But we can still play around with importance, order, the characters involved... and yes, even location! We fool ourselves into believing that geography isn't as flexible as humans because that's how things work in real life, but in a work of fiction they are both just as imaginary, mere words on the page in the books.

If Sansa can stand in for Jeyne Poole in the show, who's to say Casterly Rock can't stand in for Volantis, or that King's Landing can't stand in for Braavos? ;)

Edited by The Coconut God

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7 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

You are right here, some things will be spoiled. At the very least, the ending of season 8 will certainly color future theories.

But we can still play around with importance, order, the characters involved... and yes, even location! We fool ourselves into believing that geography isn't as flexible as humans because that's how things work in real life, but in a work of fiction they are both just as imaginary, mere words on the page in the of the books.

If Sansa can stand in for Jeyne Poole in the show, who's to say Casterly Rock can't stand in for Volantis, or that King's Landing can't stand in for Braavos? ;)

So, if the exodus theory isn't in the show, does that mean you're not giving it up?  LOL.

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Just now, Cas Stark said:

So, if the exodus theory isn't in the show, does that mean you're not giving it up?  LOL.

I'll give it up if Winds comes out and it doesn't happen.

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