Planetos, "Mega-Seasons" and Planet X. It'sh Schience!

[Three-Fingered Pete]

Good day/evening all.

 

This is a  theory that Morte and I bandied about in a PM that tries to explain Planetos' odd climate shifts. I decided to clean it up and post it for fun. AFAIK, GRRM has said nothing of substance about this phenomenon.

TL,DR: It'sh schience (fiction)!

 

DISCLAIMER: It is doubtful that this would hold up to true mathematical scrutiny, but it's good enough for a fantasy novel. So, for your own sanity, put down the protractors and calculators.

 

 

Okay nerds and nerdettes, it's time to firmly install those pocket protectors, straighten your retainer and put on your thick, square-framed glasses 'cause we're gettin' technical 'n stuff! If you don't know a term, Google is your friend.

Morte suggested some very fine thinking music while reading, but I felt that a modern arrangement would fire the grey cells a little better:

 

First, we have to assume a few things:

GIVEN: The star in the Planetos system is a main sequence G or K type yellow star.
GIVEN: The planet has, or is close to, a twenty-four hour day and a three hundred sixty five day year, as we reckon time.
GIVEN: The planet, stated as being a little larger than Earth, rotates faster than Earth to account for the similar hourly period of its days.
GIVEN: The planet, although larger than Earth, has a density that allows for a comparable gravity field as Earth's.
GIVEN: The planet has some semblance of the "normal" cyclic seasonal changes that Earth enjoys to explain the similar flora and fauna that are encountered.

 

NOTE ON THE GIVENS: It is an old unspoken rule of SF/Fantasy literature that if the author creates a world that mimics ours in such detail as to be mostly indistinguishable from it in those respects that we take for granted on a daily basis, such as time, gravity, flora and fauna and the natural abilities of humans, we can assume that those traits are consistent with what we know and experience unless specifically pointed out as different by the author. The burden is on the author because they know that we, as humans, will fill in the gaps with what we know. So, if they want a different metric to be assumed, they must present and (attempt to) explain it.

Therefore, since GRRM hasn't even hinted at any serious deviations, let alone explained one, we are safe to assume a 60s/60m/24h/365d time metric, or as close to it as to be irrelevant for our purposes, to judge our passage of time and that the humans and other familiar life forms that we encounter follow the rules and limitations that we know, unless described otherwise. In other words, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck! (Hopefully with a lemon glaze, served with candied onions and mashed and buttered neeps, and then washed down with a rich, buttery Arbor gold...)

 

 

 

THESIS:

 

Statement: The "mega-seasons" experienced by the inhabitants of Planetos can be explained by the position and behavior of the planet combined with that of other astronomical bodies within the solar system.

In ASoIaF, we mostly experience only mundane astronomical phenomenon, i.e. sun, moon and stars. The only extraordinary astronomical phenomenon we experience is the red comet. We can surmise that this comet is a single apparition and/or sun grazing comet and not a period comet (long or short) since earlier appearances are not chronicled, as far as we know. Most of the inhabitants of ASoIaF that we meet have little interest in the motions of the sky other than the sudden appearance of the comet and turns of the moon. The only real hint we have of any use of mathematical astronomy would be the maesters at the Citadel being able to determine that winter has arrived. From what we know of the maesters and their use of various "Myrish lens tubes", charts and maps, we can assume that this determination didn't come from reading a bowl of goat entrails or the like. We don't know how good the lenses are in these devices or how many focal points they have in the "tube" (at least two are needed to constitute what we term a telescope, otherwise it's just a fancy magnifying glass with an infinite focal range). Early telescopes revealed little more than magnified blurs. Given these conditions there are two possible ways that "mega-seasons" could work on Planetos and be predicted, but both take some stretching of our collective knowledge of such things.

The first scenario is that the star is a variable output star. All main sequence yellow dwarf stars (like ours) go through periods of greater output and then settle down again. From what we have observed with our sun and other stars like it, these periods are intermittent and not cycled and usually last many decades at the least and several thousand years at the most. The other thing is that these periods are always an increase in output from the star's usual brightness. A decrease from the norm indicates the star is losing fuel, and subsequently likely to turn into a red giant soon on the cosmic timescale. In any case, it wouldn't be a cyclic phenomenon.

The problem with this scenario is that it would need to be an abnormal star. The change in output, while measurable, is never enough to greatly change the climate on our planet. It might make the winters a little colder or the summers a little warmer, but not effect drastic climate change. A really good study awhile back linked our position in the galaxy on a 250,000 year oscillation cycle to most of Earth's dramatic climate upheaval. Right now we are in the friendly zone, however, that cycle, mixed with our planet's precession cycle and the magnetic poles' weird tendency to swap charges from time to time, makes for most of our planet's environmental change (at least until we came along )

So, Planetos' star would need to be one that changes output on a short, regular cycle and at about the same rate on each cycle. The universe is large and wonderful, so it's not impossible, but we haven't observed that in G/K type stars. We have in other types, though. Some blue giants do it a lot, but they only last a few million years and then explode and create other phenomena. Because of these facts, neither are likely scenarios for our purposes.

The second scenario seems like it is more exotic, but considering the weird things we have seen in exo-solar systems in recent years, it sounds more possible all the time. This scenario requires the existence of a dark, mysterious body called Planet X!!! (dum-DUM-dummmmm! ; imagine a deep voice with reverb for full effect), probably a significantly sizeable gas giant, in the next outer orbit from Planetos. This planet would appear as just another star to the ignorant and one of the several (we assume) starry wanderers that the educated, i.e. the maesters and certain arcane acolytes, knew to be observed and noted at certain times and positions to predict/prepare for certain things like planting, harvest and the coming of winter/summer. For this reason, having a significant mention in the text isn't necessary.

For this system to work we have to assume that Planetos has a significantly exaggerated precession cycle, probably due to the fact that the planet is top heavy on its axis. This precession causes the planet to tip its northern hemisphere significantly at times. We will also assume that the normal, fairly upright, orientation of the planet is what results in the season the inhabitants identify as summer, with what we classify as some form of the "normal" regular cyclic seasons that Earth enjoys.

Now, normally this significant tilt would result in extreme yearly seasons as the northern pole would alternate between facing directly away from the star and facing directly into it. In order to have a ten to fifteen year autumn/winter/spring cycle, the northern pole would have to continuously face away from the star during this extreme tilt. The only way for this to occur is if the planet literally rolls in its orbit as it revolves around the star. The only way for that to occur is if there is an outside gravitational source acting on it to give it energy, hence the mysterious Planet X!!! (dum-DUM-dummmmm! )

Planet X must have a much more exaggerated elliptical orbit than Planetos, say in an eighteen to twenty-four year period, so that it gets rather close to Planetos every nine to twelve years. Over time, Planetos' precession cycle has become synchronized with the approach of Planet X's perigee, so while Planet X makes its journey through its closest point of orbit, it tugs at Planetos and provides the energy to keep the northern hemisphere tilted away from the star and rolling during the six month (or so) period that the planet is in opposition to Planet X. Then the orbits align again and Planetos gets another boost of energy for the next six months of travel until Planet X moves too far away to influence it for another nine to twelve years. At those periods, Planetos moves back to more or less upright due to gyroscopic forces and summer returns until the cycle starts again.

Since these cycles are not like clockwork and the relative positions of the bodies will differ slightly at each interaction period, sometimes the forces align to make for a mild, short winter or a harsh, short winter or a mild, long winter or a harsh, long winter. Basically, if the forces align stronger and longer, your winter will be stronger and longer and vise-versa. Planet X could be responsible for Planetos' top heaviness as well. When Planetos was forming, the periodic gravitational increase pulled the center of mass toward Planet X, offsetting the core position enough to cause the heavy precession angle and quick cycle period. Also, Planetos' faster rotation rate would help to keep things more unstable orbit-wise.

 

Are you people taking notes? There's going to be a quiz later.

 

Analogous Data Points on the Size, Location and Origin of Planet X!!! (dum-DUM-dummmmm! ):

In order to affect Planetos in the ways described above, Planet X needs to be very massive. It needs to be on the scale of Jupiter massive and a lot closer to Planetos than Jupiter is to Earth to do this. This creates a problem if Planet X is as large and as bright as Jupiter. With Planet X at its perigee, it would be brighter than any star and very noticeable in the sky and worthy of note by anyone observing it. Planet X needs to be hard to spot by a casual observer, yet still located and tracked by those in the know and with the proper equipment. The good thing is that Planet X need not be large and/or bright to do the job. An object, large or small, with a high mass and a dark surface resulting in a low albedo would be hard to detect and with a bad enough telescope it still would not be recognizable as a planet, as it will vanish from sight for years because of its orbit. So, Planet X can stay dark and unmentioned in the text, but still be used as a guide post for those who portend events and circumstances, who as of this time, we have little information on which to speculate.

When it comes to Planet X's origin, there are two possibilities for such an extreme orbital path. One is that it is a captured object. This works well if it is wanted to be a dense, dark body, like a dead stellar core or rogue brown dwarf star (named Tyrion no doubt), however, this presents certain problems with the small mass of the parent star compared to its captured companion. The chance of any orderly formation or the continued existence of smaller bodies or their stable orbits would be in question with such an extreme binary system, i.e. planets within the orbits of the two massive objects.

I prefer a scenario that builds on what has already been discussed. A collision with another large body (possibly another gas giant) going faster and in the same direction as Planet X when it was already heading out to its apogee, pushed its orbit out of whack and subsequently caused Planetos' top heavy spin and precession problems during its formation. This would add to Planet X's mass after its initial formation, so that any disruptions in the formation of Planetos happened at a stage where it couldn't be ripped apart anymore, but may have helped form/capture its moon. The collision would have had to be enormous to cause Planet X's extreme orbit, but such things have happened. In our own solar system, Uranus was knocked onto its side (or ass if you prefer ) by a collision with a body only as big as the Earth.

If we use our solar system as a template and place Planetos approximately 1AU from its star, Planet X would be approximately where the asteroid belt is at its perigee and about where Jupiter is at its apogee. At this distance, we are likely to see perturbations in Planetos' behavior, but not enough gravitational force to rip the planet apart or pull its moon from orbit. Too much gravity would cause Planetos to be much more geothermally and volcanically active as the planet was squeezed and stretched and we have no evidence of that. Now, this is all supposition since we don't have a super-computer to figure it out, but we do have some analogous data points though:

We know for a fact that an object the mass of Jupiter will either destroy, or disrupt the formation of, a rocky planet approximately 228,000,000 km away; the distance from Jupiter to the approximate center of the asteroid belt.

We also know for a fact that at a distance of approximately 533,000,000 km, the distance between Mars and Jupiter, that mass has no serious effect on the formation or orbit of a small rocky planet.

Suppose we move Jupiter to the position of the asteroid belt. That places it approximately 360,000,000 km from Mars. Too far away to be sure that it will destroy the planet or that it might have kept it from forming, but we can be sure that the influence would be enough that Mars' system would not look like it does today. It likely would have no moons for one thing, since Jupiter probably would have munched them before they were captured. The effect on Earth, a mere 55,000,000 km or so further, would be noticeable too. It is probable that Planet X would have to be a little closer and/or a little more massive to affect Planetos at 1 AU the way it has to, but we have no way of calculating that.

Of course, there's always the other explanation of where Planet X lies. Here's a short clip of Morte and I discussing it:

 

CONCLUSION:

So, in this latter scenario, we could see the "mega-seasons" as well as the normal seasonal changes that afford Planetos the flora and fauna that we can identify with. We can also assume that many of these life forms, while similar in appearance and behavior to ones familiar to us, probably have developed some special survival options, such as hibernation, migration, or in the case of plants, hardy seeds that can wait for better conditions to prosper, that allow them to survive these extreme periods. The conditions in the southern hemisphere during these periods could also indicate why more exploration/settlement has not been done in that region. Long, severe winters in the north means long, severe summers in the south. Drought would be harder to deal with on a decade long basis without the proper technology.

 

Wow, what a mess! Is anyone still awake? I hope so, because here's your quiz!

 

QUIZ:

A train leaves the station at 5:02 pm traveling in a northerly direction going fifty-two miles an hour with forty-four passengers aboard. At the same time, another train leaves another station, using a parallel track to the first, and traveling in a southerly direction at forty-seven miles an hour with twenty-three passengers aboard. After thirty-five minutes of travel, the two trains meet and pass each other on their respective tracks. Question: For each train, what are the colors of the conductors' socks?

Is Hot Pie Azor Ahai?

How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

What's that weird thing crawling on your shoulder?

Do you think that season 8 of GoT has been over-hyped?

Where's Waldo?

What's in Egg's other boot?

Your fly is open.

What have I got in my pocket?

Why are you still reading this ridiculous post?

[Ser Leftwich]

Or, it's magic.

[Clegane'sPup]

I turned on the music so to set the mood.

1 hour ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

What have I got in my pocket?

Since you the used the word "I" I assume it ain't a mouse.

1 hour ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

Why are you still reading this ridiculous post? 

Because you rock. 

Edit: still laughing my ass off ---- Daffy taking credit for Porky's idea --- wonderful.

[The Fattest Leech]

The thread that was promised 

Now I have to ask myself, where did my nose go? Which one of you took it?

[Clegane'sPup]

56 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

The thread that was promised 

Now I have to ask myself, where did my nose go? Which one of you took it?

Well, I dunna know about your nose or who took it but sumbody (Russell Peters imitating his fathers voice) knows how to tell a tale.

Edit: Funny part or scary part --- TFP may be a real life Sheldon and I wouldn't know ---

[kissdbyfire]

I swear by the Old Gods... when I saw the topic title on the main page my first thought was: “Yay, a thread by Vargo Hoat!”

[Three-Fingered Pete]

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I swear by the Old Gods... when I saw the topic title on the main page my first thought was: “Yay, a thread by Vargo Hoat!”

 

Careful, you'll make me want to rewrite the entire thing with a lisp!

[Clegane'sPup]

23 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I swear by the Old Gods... when I saw the topic title on the main page my first thought was: “Yay, a thread by Vargo Hoat!”

I didn't thanks for pointing it out.

It was just a jovial thread. Now, well you and Leech .... made me and exposed my ignorance.

 

[Three-Fingered Pete]

57 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Edit: Funny part or scary part --- TFP may be a real life Sheldon and I wouldn't know ---

 

Nah, I'm more like Zack:

 

[kissdbyfire]

4 hours ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

Good day/evening all.

Good afternoon.  (nah, it’s nighttime over here but couldn’t help it)

Quote

 

This is a  theory that Morte and I bandied about in a PM that tries to explain Planetos' odd climate shifts. I decided to clean it up and post it for fun. AFAIK, GRRM has said nothing of substance about this phenomenon.

Good company, good start.

I will be very honest, (before reading, you,’ll understand why in a sec) theories about WWS (Westeros’ Wacky Seasons) usually do my head in. They’re usually either utterly absurd or super duper technical and most stuff just goes right over my head. I would so love to find a climate theory focused on the mammoths, but I won’t hold my breath. 

And as far as I know, Martin has spoken very little about specific fan theories and whathaveyou. But I seem to recall something about dismissing some technical explanation for WWS and saying it’s not science, it’s magic. Still has to make sense, so I am very curious to learn more about it. 

Quote

TL,DR: It'sh schience (fiction)!

There it is (sorta), reminds me of “saphireths”. 

Quote

DISCLAIMER: It is doubtful that this would hold up to true mathematical scrutiny, but it's good enough for a fantasy novel. So, for your own sanity, put down the protractors and calculators.

You made me think of a prostate check up now. But I don’t have a prostrate, so I don’t really know.  

Quote

Okay nerds and nerdettes, it's time to firmly install those pocket protectors, straighten your retainer and put on your thick, square-framed glasses 'cause we're gettin' technical 'n stuff! If you don't know a term, Google is your friend.

Sometimes, Google is your best friend. Ever. 

Quote

Morte suggested some very fine thinking music while reading, but I felt that a modern arrangement would fire the grey cells a little better:

 

First, we have to assume a few things:

GIVEN: The star in the Planetos system is a main sequence G or K type yellow star.

See? That’s what I meant... it’s the first line, and it already went way, way over my head.

(now I’m gonna go try to understand something...)

[Clegane'sPup]

28 minutes ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

 

Nah, I'm more like Zack:

 

You are an interesting poster.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

And as far as I know, Martin has spoken very little about specific fan theories and whathaveyou. But I seem to recall something about dismissing some technical explanation for WWS and saying it’s not science, it’s magic. Still has to make sense, so I am very curious to learn more about it. 

 

Oh, goody! It's sophistry time!

Point 1: How can a magical event be reliably predicted by a body of scholars who actively eschew magic in every serious way?

Point 2: Any sufficiently advanced science would appear as magic to lesser evolved culture, so it is "magic".

 

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

You made me think of a prostrate check up now. But I don’t have a prostrate, so I don’t really know.  

 

No need to prostrate yourself.  I'm not holy (yet).

 

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

See? That’s what I meant... it’s the first line, and it already went way, way over my head.

 

That's our type of star. That's explained by the Note On The Givens. I could've been more clear.

[kissdbyfire]

20 minutes ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

No need to prostrate yourself.  I'm not holy (yet)

dumb as shit autocorrect, and I didn’t catch it. 

[Morte]

Just wanted to thank @Three-Fingered Pete for putting this in a readable and comprehensive (and funny!) form and doing the publishing work!

Thank you!

[Three-Fingered Pete]

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Just wanted to thank @Three-Fingered Pete for putting this in a readable and comprehensive (and funny!) form and doing the publishing work!

Thank you!

 

Aha! You fell for it then!

 

Now you have to put out the next one... and you know what that means!

 

[Morte]

1 hour ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

 

Aha! You fell for it then!

 

Now you have to put out the next one... and you know what that means!

 

But at this moment I am save, as we don't have a release date still

[hiemal]

Great stuff, 3FP!

I'm quite taken with the idea of Nemesis/Planet X idea as a rogue world, and the source of magic on Planetos, so I've kicked the idea around a bit, but your detailed analysis really puts it all together and sells it. Kudos!

[Three-Fingered Pete]

2 hours ago, Morte said:

But at this moment I am save, as we don't have a release date still

 

Don't run. You'll only die tired.

 

33 minutes ago, hiemal said:

Great stuff, 3FP!

I'm quite taken with the idea of Nemesis/Planet X idea as a rogue world, and the source of magic on Planetos, so I've kicked the idea around a bit, but your detailed analysis really puts it all together and sells it. Kudos!

 

Cool! It's always nice when one crackpot theory can scratch another's back.

Mayhaps Planet X was responsible for the breakup of the moon that created the dragons in the Asshai myth?

[Free Northman Reborn]

1. There are indications that the lopsided seasons are a fairly recent phenomenon - meaning before the Long Night the seasons were likely normal. I think it is even mentioned in one of the fake history books. So it is doubtful that it goes back to the formation of the solar system or some other pre-human era.

2. Martin has said it is due to magic.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 3/6/2019 at 5:34 PM, Three-Fingered Pete said:

Edited 10 hours ago by Three-Fingered Pete
added new link

I like it.