Jon's Shield Hall Speech and Subsequent Plan

[kissdbyfire]

@Ser Hedge, I don’t think Jon took the PL to be “mostly true”... 

He knows there’s truth in it, but he questions some its contents as well. The letter makes certain claims and makes some demands/threats. Let’s separate the two. 

“Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red witch.”

1 - claim, could be true or false

“Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfel

2 - claim, could be true or false

Come see them, bastard. 

3 - taunt 

Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

4 - claim (you sent the KbtW etc) and threat/accusation 

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

5 - claim (Jon has fArya); and taun. But also, this is, IMO, what makes Jon think that some of the letter is true. Whoever wrote the letter (it’s Ramsay btw) knows of/has Mance Rayder. As far as the reader knows, Mel, Jon, and Mance are the only people who know of the Mancelshirt switcheroo - as of Mance leaving CB w/ the spearwives at least. So, by bringing up Mance the author (Ramsay) gives Jon the biggest clue about at least some of it being true. 

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

6 - threats based on things Jon knows are both true (Selyse, Shireen, Mel, Val, and Monster at CB) and false (fArya and who the hell is Reek?)

It was signed,

Ramsay Bolton,
Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.”

(there was something else I meant to comment on but can’t remember what it was...

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

20 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You are arguing from personal bias. Martin’s intention has never been to portray Jon as an idiot. And in an interview he directly disputes a statement that calls Jon’s actions to let the wildlings through the Wall a mistake. Much of your longstanding argument in favour of Marsh’s actions is that Marsh was right and Jon was wrong about the wildling situation. And yet, Martin questions that, saying it is a complex choice.

George did portray Jon here as an idiot who was carried away by his emotions and acted rashly on the basis of insufficient information. That's also why he could be killed. He failed to understand how the people around him actually thought.

I never said that allowing Tormund's wildlings through the Wall was a mistake. I said and say that the Hardhome mission was a mistake, that believing it would be possible/wise to make a deal with the Weeper a deal the man would uphold is a mistake, and that him failing to either make the officers of the Watch his men or replace them with his own men is a mistake.

I don't think those are particularly contentious issues.

I also think that Jon fails properly understand what a cruel winter at the Wall without sufficient provisions means, and how the knowledge and experiences the veterans do have with that kind of thing affects their assessment of the political situation.

20 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, besieging Winterfell would be idiotic. Ambushing Ramsay’s forces in the snow along the way may be a better plan.

What did Jon and Tormund discuss at length in the hours preceding the assassination? A conversation Martin mentions, but does not reveal the contents of?

We don’t know.

We actually can make a pretty good guess: They made up his speech in the hall and the way they would win the men there to Jon's cause. Jon cannot have a plan for things he has no information about. Sure, he may want to attack Ramsay at a place of his choosing and not at Winterfell, but he has no idea where Ramsay is nor how he will behave in the future. He may have an idea how to find and/or surprise him, but he can only make a plan for that once he knows or believes he knows where Ramsay is or will be at a point in the future.

He doesn't know any of that in the hall.

And if the worst case scenario is true - i.e. everything in the Pink Letter is true and no lie - then Jon simply is dead no matter what he does. And he would likely also be dead if he successfully 'surprised' Ramsay unless the man is more or less completely alone. After all, Jon doesn't exactly have 3,000 trained soldiers. Even the 3,000 wildlings - as per Marsh's assessment on the basis of their cook fires - are not 3,000 warriors. Tormund's gang brought all their families, which likely means he has less than a 1,000 actual fighters - there would also be old people, children, and women who are not spear wives among Tormund's people. The Boltons could have lost nearly all their men at Winterfell - a hundred good Dreadfort men likely could dispose of ten times as many wildlings, even if they are surprised by them.

11 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

The trouble is Jon needs people signed up to the cause and he needs to get out of the well publicised mission to Hardhome that he has already committed a lot of resources to. So, maybe that's what he will use some of the wildlings for - reconnaissance and gathering Stannis' broken men. If it should turn out that Stannis was not really defeated, then even better, obviously. 

Sure, but there would have been other, less radical ways to do this. Ways involving a consensus reached by discussing things with his officers as well as Melisandre and Selyse. They could have made preparations for a war with the Boltons without actually being the party who threw the first stone.

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

George did portray Jon here as an idiot who was carried away by his emotions and acted rashly on the basis of insufficient information. That's also why he could be killed. He failed to understand how the people around him actually thought.

No, he didn’t, and you know that. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

I do get the feeling whoever wrote the PL did have malignant intent against Jon and the watch as a whole. I mean the prospect of Jon trying to rush into preparing for a fight(as he did), or rushing to give into the demands, would be pretty natural reactions one could expect. Either option could cause a lot of bloodshed.  If Jon tries to handover Stannis’ wife, witch, and daughter, a lot of brothers at Castle black could die trying to get them through fighting they’re way through. 

If Jon decides to leave and fight, the watch again is hurt. Most of the people who’d likely be his successors (along with for that matter most of his brothers) hate the wildlings would probably immediately begin plans to kill and/or drive them  back north of the wall as soon as they can and perhaps fork over the last of Stannis’ loyalists if they stuck around anyway. A likely bloody affair. And it would take awhile probably for a new LC to even be chosen. Weeks of time needed for preparation probably  lost.

Honestly, if Mance is the one to have written the letter, I would take it as proof to my suspicion the man is working for dark forces. 

He more than anyone should be able to seethe best chance of Amnesty being granted towards the wildlings lies with Jon being LC. If Malister, Pyke, or Marsh gets the helm,all the progress Jon has made in brokering a peace between the wildlings and crows could easily shatter.

I mean could you seriously see Pyke or Malister, or Marsh, negotiatoting with a wildling leader? Or being a mediator between the two groups when tensions run hot? They won’t care to really chastise or keep the black brothers from abusing the wildlings. If a spearwife defends herself from a brother’s sexual assault I imagine she’d be punished by these men for assaulting/killing a brother. 

Jon as Warden(even if Stan would have any sort of use for Jon after he’s shown repeatedly to be non-compliant, and beholden to him), would politically strapped to being able to pull muscle with the watch-it’s  going to be nigh impossible for him to make forcing the order, he abandoned to allow in the murdering, savages, who’ve been stealing good northern women to rape for centuries, sound particularly good.  Roose was wary of actually attacking the brotherhood because of the potential backlash it could spark. The houses are strapped for food themselves and bloodied, it’s unlikely Jon could use the prospect of more food from the stores of Houses to incentive th brotherhood to keep on his policies.

Hell even the violent rebellion that was put on by Marsh could probably be counted on as to have a strong likelihood. Even if Marsh doesn’t believe in the letter perse(that Jon let the massmurdering brother killer Mance Rayder go)  he could be guessed as seeing Jon having made up the whole thing to justify forswearing his vows  to go and aid the failing usurpher’s quest to rescue his half-sister.  Marsh hasn’t really been discreet about his views-he sees Stannis as another doomed pretender. With Jon’s proclaimation in Marsh’s mind that could likely mean the utter doom of the Watch.

 

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, he didn’t, and you know that. 

Sure he did. He paints a lot of characters as idiots, all the time. He likes doing that. He even said that his characters mostly only get killed when they make mistakes. And they all make mistakes, some get lucky and survive them, others don't.

Jon obviously didn't, no ;-)?

Robert, Viserys III, Ned, Renly, Balon, Mormont, Robb and Catelyn, Joffrey, Oberyn, Tywin, Lysa, Quentyn, Jon, Pycelle, Kevan, etc. all could have lived had they not made certain crucial mistakes.

It is more glaring in certain cases - Robert and Viserys and Tywin and Oberyn, say - and less glaring in other cases - Mormont, Balon, Pycelle - but it is always there.

[Seams]

When GRRM is using a dream or legend to link contemporary events with events in an ancient story, he will often use a title such as "your false king" instead of naming a specific king such as Stannis. This allows the reader to take a step back and see whether, for instance, a dead man with a wolf's head, seated on a throne and wearing an iron crown is definitely Robb Stark and only Robb Stark, or whether there might be layers of meaning or alternate interpretations. We see this also with some of the chapter headings that don't use the name of the POV: "The Prince of Winterfell," "The Drowned Man," and "The Captain of the Guards" allow the author to tell a story that is both specific to the current novels but also an echo of an older story or foreshadowing of a story that will come up again.

In this case, in addition to "your false king," the pink letter refers to "bastard," "his red witch," "the wildling babe" and other people whose names are not used. Mance Rayder is the only name that is used directly, which is ironic because he is also King Beyond the Wall, Bael, Abel, a glamored Rattleshirt and (in the opinions of some people in this forum) a symbolic or literal version of Prince Rhaegar.

The events surrounding the pink letter are given this vague, dream-like treatment because the author wants us to find a comparison to one of the major legends associated with the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

The gathering gloom put Bran in mind of another of Old Nan's stories, the tale of Night's King. He had been the thirteenth man to lead the Night's Watch, she said; a warrior who knew no fear. "And that was the fault in him," she would add, "for all men must know fear." A woman was his downfall; a woman glimpsed from atop the Wall, with skin as white as the moon and eyes like blue stars. Fearing nothing, he chased her and caught her an loved her, though her skin was cold as ice, and when he gave his seed to her he gave his soul as well.

He brought her back to the Nightfort and proclaimed her a queen and himself her king, and with strange sorceries he bound his Sworn Brothers to his will. For thirteen years they had ruled, Night's King and his corpse queen, till finally the Stark of Winterfell and Joramun of the wildlings had joined to free the Watch from bondage. After his fall, when it was found he had been sacrificing to the Others, all records of Night's King had been destroyed, his very name forbidden.

"Some say he was a Bolton," Old Nan would always end. "Some say a Magnar out of Skagos, some say Umber, Flint or Norrey. Some would have you think he was a Woodfoot, from them who ruled Bear Island before the ironmen came. He never was. He was a Stark, the brother of the man who brought him down." She always pinched Bran on the nose then, he would never forget it. "He was a Stark of Winterfell, and who can say? Mayhaps his name was Brandon. Mayhaps he slept in this very bed in this very room."

(ASoS, Bran IV, Chap. 56)

But Jon Snow hasn't declared himself a king, and Ramsay is not removing Jon Snow as Lord Commander, so how could this be a parallel situation?

I suspect this is where GRRM wants us to use details and to make allowances for unreliable narrators. Old Nan tells us that the records of the Night's King were destroyed, so the story presumably survives only from oral tradition which would be subject to the biases of the storyteller, embellishment and forgotten or confused elements. If you make allowances for some of the details, there are a number of matching elements in the two situations:

• Ramsay signs his letter, "The Trueborn Lord of Winterfell." We know this is not true on one or two levels, at least, but it puts him in the position of being "of Winterfell," like the Stark brother who teams up with Joramun to depose the Night's King.
• Ramsay and Jon are the only two characters in the novels who grew up with the surname "Snow." I think we are supposed to see them as symbolic brothers or, at the very least, parallels. Ramsay addresses his letter to "Bastard." When Jon Snow resolves to march south with armed companions, he thinks to himself, "... we are coming for you, Bastard."
• Note: I believe Ramsay might be the biological son of Ned's brother Brandon, not of Roose Bolton. The chapter opened with Jon putting up with the diplomatic efforts of Queen Selyse to subdue the wildlings through strategic marriages, focusing on Gerrick Kingsblood, who she has named as King of the Wildlings because he is descended in an unbroken male line from the "house" of the ancient wildling king Raymun Redbeard. Jon thinks, "Gerrick is descended from a younger brother of Raymun Readbeard. To the free folk that counted about as much as being descended from Raymun Redbeard's horse." If Ramsay is the son of Brandon, he would be descended from the older Stark brother. If Jon is the son of Ned, he would be like the non-king descended from the younger brother of Raymun. Maybe this is why GRRM put the Raymun Redbeard information in this chapter.
• Speaking of Selyse, she and Stannis are the ones who keep insisting that Val is a wildling princess or queen or lady. The legend says that the Night's King proclaimed the white woman to be a queen. If Val is the equivalent of the corpse queen from the legend, not only has Jon not proclaimed her a queen, he has also refrained from having sex with her (as far as we know) although there seems to be an attraction and possibly a flirtation between them.
• Another candidate for Jon's corpse queen could be Melisandre. He does think about her and plans to consult her expertise in this chapter, but he doesn't make her a queen or have sex with her.
• While there is no corpse queen on Jon's mind, he is thinking about corpses. Falling snow threatens to seal off the ice cells where two bodies had been stored. Jon had expected them to reanimate as wights and had put them in shackles before locking them in a cell. This idea of animated corpses may be part of the parallel with the ancient legend although these corpses don't seem to be turning into wights.
• Is it possible that Ramsay is the equivalent of the Night's King in this iteration of the legend, and Jon Snow and Tormund are "The Stark" and "Joramun" parallels? This might imply that fArya / Jeyne Poole is the corpse bride. There are some good possibilities in this match-up: Arya was presumed dead but ended up being "resurrected" when Jeyne was sent north using her identity. To the reader, it does feel better if we anticipate that Ramsay will be deposed, like the Night's King, and Jon and Tormund will "free the Watch from bondage," except they will be freeing Winterfell and/or Mance.

 

[Quoth the raven,]

Jon planned his moves in advance.  He knew he was going to commit treason and his brothers of the watch will try to stop him.  So he got the wildlings to side with him first because he underestimated the dedication of Bowen Marsh and the brothers of the watch.  He thought he could get the wildings and his brothers would have no choice except to let him attack House Bolton.  It's the worse thing for a crow to do.  Jon threw every bit of responsible behavior aside for his sister.  It's not wise to ride out in that weather condition but Jon was already lost to reason.  

[Quoth the raven,]

On 3/8/2019 at 9:06 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

And yet Jon is not mad. And is a very capable strategist as Martin has been at pains to point out repeatedly.

So the original question remains. What was his actual plan? Besieging Winterfell even with all the power of the wildlings and Watch combined would be foolish.

Or was it another “Wex Pyke” moment, where George was just rushed to push the plot in a certain direction (Jon’s assassination as oppossed to getting Davos to Skagos in the Wex plotline) and mashed together a chapter to force the event, leaving logic behind?

It is foolish to attack because Jon was already lost to reason.  He was going to get his sister and that was that.  There is really no strategy for an attack like that.  The weather is pretty damn awful and it's a long ride.  Stannis lost his war.  Even if Jon was successful in getting his sister, what then?  Ramsay will do precisely what he did.  Demand his bride back.  All of the drama created by Jon to fetch his sister is a distraction from the mission of the watch and it came at the worst possible time.  Jon is not a capable strategist under the best of circumstances.  Put Arya in danger and he gets even worse.  

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 minutes ago, Quoth the raven, said:

It is foolish to attack because Jon was already lost to reason.  He was going to get his sister and that was that.  There is really no strategy for an attack like that.  The weather is pretty damn awful and it's a long ride.  Stannis lost his war.  Even if Jon was successful in getting his sister, what then?  Ramsay will do precisely what he did.  Demand his bride back.  All of the drama created by Jon to fetch his sister is a distraction from the mission of the watch and it came at the worst possible time.  Jon is not a capable strategist under the best of circumstances.  Put Arya in danger and he gets even worse.  

And yet Martin is setting him up as the saviour of mankind.

Going to great effort to make him leader of the Watch at 16, having him point out Stannis’s strategic flaws, set up life saving deals with the Iron Bank, and is about to ressurect him from death to lead humanity in the War against the Others.

I don’t think Martin’s overall intention is to portray Jon as a bad strategist. Do you?

[Quoth the raven,]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

And yet Martin is setting him up as the saviour of mankind.

Going to great effort to make him leader of the Watch at 16, having him point out Stannis’s strategic flaws, set up life saving deals with the Iron Bank, and is about to ressurect him from death to lead humanity in the War against the Others.

I don’t think Martin’s overall intention is to portray Jon as a bad strategist. Do you?

You and I must be reading different stories.  I don't think Martin is setting him up to be the saviour of mankind.  His folly will be the doom of the north.  Jon's arc is not big enough to affect all of mankind.  He's strictly local.  Now, the show might do what you predicted,  but the books, I don't think, are headed in that direction.  

[Free Northman Reborn]

35 minutes ago, Quoth the raven, said:

You and I must be reading different stories.  I don't think Martin is setting him up to be the saviour of mankind.  His folly will be the doom of the north.  Jon's arc is not big enough to affect all of mankind.  He's strictly local.  Now, the show might do what you predicted,  but the books, I don't think, are headed in that direction.  

Views noted. Think we should just agree to disagree. Our fundamental interpretations of the series are simply too divergent.

Look forward to revisiting this discussion after the release of Winds, though. I think some major eye openers are in store for a small but vocal section of the fandom.

[Ser Hedge]

7 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t think Jon took the PL to be “mostly true”... 

He knows there’s truth in it, but he questions some its contents as well. The letter makes certain claims and makes som

@kissdbyfire Good distinction, in fact, there are even varying degrees to which one can believe in the first claim

7 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

“Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red witch.”

In his thoughts though Jon thinks that Selyse deserved to hear that her Lord is dead, indicating he seems to believe it himself, but I agree this still open to discussion.

For the purposes of trying to reconstruct Jon's strategy, I think it is enough to assume Jon thinks there is a high chance Stannis is dead and most of the host has been smashed. If it eventually turns out otherwise, his situation has not really changed. In fact, by his Shield hall speech, he has gained a lot of standing in the eyes of the wildlings - he has their swords for now. I think only a situation where Mance re-emerges with his reputation intact (i.e. does not need to be rescued from a cage) leads to a situation where the wildlings might consider changing their allegiance again. At this point, Jon has raised ^1000 swords, irrespective of Stannis being alive or dead. Only a situation where Mance has not been captured and comes out looking good for having outwitted the kneelers and stolen the bride of the the 'Lord of Winterfell' could Jon end up worse off (deserted the watch, wildlings look up to Mance as the true leader), so in a sense if Stannis is truly dead or not does not matter now that he's made his speech.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And if the worst case scenario is true - i.e. everything in the Pink Letter is true and no lie - then Jon simply is dead no matter what he does. And he would likely also be dead if he successfully 'surprised' Ramsay unless the man is more or less completely alone. After all, Jon doesn't exactly have 3,000 trained soldiers. Even the 3,000 wildlings - as per Marsh's assessment on the basis of their cook fires - are not 3,000 warriors. Tormund's gang brought all their families, which likely means he has less than a 1,000 actual fighters - there would also be old people, children, and women who are not spear wives among Tormund's people. The Boltons could have lost nearly all their men at Winterfell - a hundred good Dreadfort men likely could dispose of ten times as many wildlings, even if they are surprised by them.

I agree with a lot of the rest of your post, but not with a couple of points above. First, while Jon faces lower odds of survival, he is not  'simply dead no matter what'. He has some cards left to play and is doing exactly that. He has raised hundreds of seasoned fighters well suited for skirmishes and ambushes in those weather conditions. 

Ok, now on to Ramsay's likely strength: Even assuming he has all the Dreadfort men at his disposal, Lord Bolton is not going to let him take all of them. WF needs to be held with a large garrison to prevent a Theon v2.0 and to continue to keep other lords in line. Having seen what happened to Stannis' army, they will not bothering with heavy armour and destriers or even palfreys. It's going to be a force that can travel light, likely clad in boiled leather and mail at best, mounted on garrons used to the snow. We can argue about numbers, but what is prudent is a few hundreds, as they (or even Mance the six spear wives) do not know about Tormund's forces. They don't expect the watch to fight the forces of the warden of the North represented here by his son, the 'trueborn Lord of Winterfell'. I really doubt 1000+ men (with those kind of numbers, you are now taking of archers and spearmen on foot as well) are sent forth on a 600 mile trip through heavy snow. It's little better than what Stannis did.

In an ambush, taking on a column struggling through a snowy forest with more or at worst the same number of men, Jon has an element of surprise and had given himself the best chance of survival in the short-term than just meekly accept he has lost. We are not talking about wildlings taking on men armoured in plate fighting in good conditions. I agree the wildlings have no mail or even boiled leather and their weapons are poor, but if the ambush is well planned, they stand a fighting chance.

I was originally thinking of Teutoburg Forest where 3 Roman Legions perished, but that's on a bigger scale and was actually a 3 day battle with multiple engagement, so maybe too grandiose of an example. There are plenty of smaller-scale skirmishes and ambushes that have been pulled off by forces with inferior equipment.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

I agree with a lot of the rest of your post, but not with a couple of points above. First, while Jon faces lower odds of survival, he is not  'simply dead no matter what'. He has some cards left to play and is doing exactly that. He has raised hundreds of seasoned fighters well suited for skirmishes and ambushes in those weather conditions. 

Perhaps it is hundreds. We don't really know the ratio of warriors vs. non-warriors in Tormund's gang. The fact that a lot of people were at the hall doesn't mean they are all good fighting material.

Quote

Ok, now on to Ramsay's likely strength: Even assuming he has all the Dreadfort men at his disposal, Lord Bolton is not going to let him take all of them. WF needs to be held with a large garrison to prevent a Theon v2.0 and to continue to keep other lords in line.

Oh, but Roose could have killed all his enemies, no? All those would-be traitors - the Manderlys, the Umbers, etc. could be dead, and the Freys could be still alive, for the most part. If Stannis lost then something went terribly, terribly wrong.

The idea that the Boltons would then need many men to prevent a Theon-like attack is rather low. I'd say a garrison of a 100-200 men would be enough. And it is also quite clear that Roose would have never emptied Winterfell during the victorious campaign against Stannis, which means chances are not that great that the Boltons had that many losses.

One also has to keep in mind that Ramsay/Roose may have written other letters to the other castles in the North announcing the death of Stannis and the crushing of all resistance in the North. People were reluctant before to open move against Roose Bolton and declare for Stannis, the chances that they would not fall in line now - when they effectively already fell in line back then - is not all that likely.

Add that to the fact that Jon's army would be made up completely of wildlings and you know why nobody would support him.

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Having seen what happened to Stannis' army, they will not bothering with heavy armour and destriers or even palfreys. It's going to be a force that can travel light, likely clad in boiled leather and mail at best, mounted on garrons used to the snow. We can argue about numbers, but what is prudent is a few hundreds, as they (or even Mance the six spear wives) do not know about Tormund's forces. They don't expect the watch to fight the forces of the warden of the North represented here by his son, the 'trueborn Lord of Winterfell'. I really doubt 1000+ men (with those kind of numbers, you are now taking of archers and spearmen on foot as well) are sent forth on a 600 mile trip through heavy snow. It's little better than what Stannis did.

Well, I actually doubt that Ramsay would really intend to go to the Wall and collect his prices. If he wanted to do that, he would have just shown up unexpected to deal with Jon and Stannis' family. Instead, he wanted Jon to throw the first stone. He is going to be the one who expects Jon Snow, not the other way around.

The way the letter is phrased makes it perfectly clear that Ramsay does not exactly expect a reply in which Jon asks how to deliver the people Ramsay wants, etc. Instead it expects him to race down south.

Ramsay does not know about Tormund's wildlings, but he knows about the wildlings Stannis captured, and one assumes he also expects Jon to use them - i.e. wildlings - in battle. Most of those guys were not at the hall, though, since he already sent the majority of them to the other castles.

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In an ambush, taking on a column struggling through a snowy forest with more or at worst the same number of men, Jon has an element of surprise and had given himself the best chance of survival in the short-term than just meekly accept he has lost. We are not talking about wildlings taking on men armoured in plate fighting in good conditions. I agree the wildlings have no mail or even boiled leather and their weapons are poor, but if the ambush is well planned, they stand a fighting chance.

See above. Even if Ramsay were stupid enough to march against the Wall he would expect such an attack because that's what the letter wanted Jon to do.

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I was originally thinking of Teutoburg Forest where 3 Roman Legions perished, but that's on a bigger scale and was actually a 3 day battle with multiple engagement, so maybe too grandiose of an example. There are plenty of smaller-scale skirmishes and ambushes that have been pulled off by forces with inferior equipment.

That thing was a days-long attack-and-retreat butchery done to a long drawn-out column of marching men. If Ramsay got the impression he was into something like that, he would just ride away and retreat to Winterfell.

If Jon had a couple of hundred great archers - like Aegon has in the Golden Company - one could see him setting a trap to a superior force. But not the a battle-hardened army who just put an end to Stannis Baratheon in a seven days battle. Tormund's people never fought through anything like that.

[Ser Hedge]

8 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

Jon planned his moves in advance.  He knew he was going to commit treason and his brothers of the watch will try to stop him.  So he got the wildlings to side with him first because he underestimated the dedication of Bowen Marsh and the brothers of the watch.  He thought he could get the wildings and his brothers would have no choice except to let him attack House Bolton.  It's the worse thing for a crow to do.  Jon threw every bit of responsible behavior aside for his sister.  It's not wise to ride out in that weather condition but Jon was already lost to reason.  

Agree with the first two sentences mostly - Jon planned and he did well to secure the wildings' support. The senior leadership of the watch was never going to support him anyway. Ser Axell and most of the other Queen's Men interests are aligned with Jon's, but these Knights are prickly, proud and prone to get in the way, so not a lot of point wasting time with. Jon was going to meet Selyse as a courtesy, and was going to see Mel after that to get intel - she did predict a few things after all. We don't know that he was not going to meet with the two clan chiefs, I think that would have been quite important too.

The weather conditions are what they are, and if Ramsay was riding north towards CB, then why not ambush him on the way with fighters used to cold and snow?

Maybe it's about his sister, but maybe that's not all. Recall Jon's thoughts are to get Mel to look for Ramsay in the fire, not for Arya! Also, Ramsay's demand cannot be humanely met, and if he did, his project at the Wall unravels, the wildlings lose trust in Jon for meekly surrendering Val and Mance's son (who is no prince, but what good is this crow who gives up his guests and even gives up on his sister who managed to escape?) No, at this point, Jon has few options. I think the alternative to what he did was to go and look for the escaped 'Arya' secretly. But once he found her, he has to secretly ship her out our hide her at the Karhold - Ramsay as son of the warden and Lord of Winterfell, could demand to inspect all the castles in the wall, so no hiding places there, and even if he doesn't find her, could accuse Jon of having spirited her way and have his head on a spike (or worse)-a very weak strategy.  No, short of surrendering to these threats, Jon was doing more or less the best he could.

[Ser Hedge]

On 3/10/2019 at 1:49 PM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, but Roose could have killed all his enemies, no? All those would-be traitors - the Manderlys, the Umbers, etc. could be dead, and the Freys could be still alive, for the most part. If Stannis lost then something went terribly, terribly wrong.

The idea that the Boltons would then need many men to prevent a Theon-like attack is rather low. I'd say a garrison of a 100-200 men would be enough. And it is also quite clear that Roose would have never emptied Winterfell during the victorious campaign against Stannis, which means chances are not that great that the Boltons had that many losses.

Ok, let's say Ramsey wants to make a show of force and takes a strength a bit too large to be overpowered in a single ambush. It's still worth harassing that column, try some night attacks and whittle the enemy down gradually over a long journey. The mountain clans have likely given up all their fighting men, but the greybeards and green boys left could prove some assistance to seek vengeance for their dead kin (overcoming their natural aversion to wildlings). That the two chiefs are at the Wall already is very useful, also the Liddle knows Bran is alive, I can't see clans meekly surrendering to the Boltons, they will be willing to fight them in their Highlands.

Staying at CB to see how things pan out and see if Ramsay makes good on the threat is a pretty week option for Jon, I think.

[Darth Sidious]

17 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I do get the feeling whoever wrote the PL did have malignant intent against Jon and the watch as a whole. I mean the prospect of Jon trying to rush into preparing for a fight(as he did), or rushing to give into the demands, would be pretty natural reactions one could expect. Either option could cause a lot of bloodshed.  If Jon tries to handover Stannis’ wife, witch, and daughter, a lot of brothers at Castle black could die trying to get them through fighting they’re way through. 

If Jon decides to leave and fight, the watch again is hurt. Most of the people who’d likely be his successors (along with for that matter most of his brothers) hate the wildlings would probably immediately begin plans to kill and/or drive them  back north of the wall as soon as they can and perhaps fork over the last of Stannis’ loyalists if they stuck around anyway. A likely bloody affair. And it would take awhile probably for a new LC to even be chosen. Weeks of time needed for preparation probably  lost.

Honestly, if Mance is the one to have written the letter, I would take it as proof to my suspicion the man is working for dark forces. 

He more than anyone should be able to seethe best chance of Amnesty being granted towards the wildlings lies with Jon being LC. If Malister, Pyke, or Marsh gets the helm,all the progress Jon has made in brokering a peace between the wildlings and crows could easily shatter.

I mean could you seriously see Pyke or Malister, or Marsh, negotiatoting with a wildling leader? Or being a mediator between the two groups when tensions run hot? They won’t care to really chastise or keep the black brothers from abusing the wildlings. If a spearwife defends herself from a brother’s sexual assault I imagine she’d be punished by these men for assaulting/killing a brother. 

Jon as Warden(even if Stan would have any sort of use for Jon after he’s shown repeatedly to be non-compliant, and beholden to him), would politically strapped to being able to pull muscle with the watch-it’s  going to be nigh impossible for him to make forcing the order, he abandoned to allow in the murdering, savages, who’ve been stealing good northern women to rape for centuries, sound particularly good.  Roose was wary of actually attacking the brotherhood because of the potential backlash it could spark. The houses are strapped for food themselves and bloodied, it’s unlikely Jon could use the prospect of more food from the stores of Houses to incentive th brotherhood to keep on his policies.

Hell even the violent rebellion that was put on by Marsh could probably be counted on as to have a strong likelihood. Even if Marsh doesn’t believe in the letter perse(that Jon let the massmurdering brother killer Mance Rayder go)  he could be guessed as seeing Jon having made up the whole thing to justify forswearing his vows  to go and aid the failing usurpher’s quest to rescue his half-sister.  Marsh hasn’t really been discreet about his views-he sees Stannis as another doomed pretender. With Jon’s proclaimation in Marsh’s mind that could likely mean the utter doom of the Watch.

 

All that supports why it was foolish for Jon to stick his nose in Ramsay's business.

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Ok, let's say Ramsey wants to make a show of force and takes a strength a bit too large to overpower a single ambush. It's still worth harassing that column, try some night attacks and whittle the enemy down gradually over a long journey. The mountain clans have likely given up all their fighting men, but the greybeards and green boys left could prove some assistance to seek vengeance for their dead kin (overcoming their natural aversion to wildlings). That the two chiefs are at the Wall already is very useful, also the Liddle knows Bran is alive, I can't see clans meekly surrendering to the Boltons, they will be willing to fight them in their Highlands.

Well, that idea is based on the idea that Ramsay is actually going to come without doing sufficient reconnaissance first, and it is based on the idea that there is going to be much time between the letter and Ramsay arriving. If I had written the letter and it was more or less true, then I'd be a couple of days away from CB when sending the letter, giving the bastard the time to arrest Stannis' people and my wife so I can take them when I suddenly arrive and the time to amass a small enough force to race directly in my trap.

The clansmen seem to be pretty much spent. Some - not many- were with Robb already, and Stannis apparently got all the 3,000 men they can offer collectively. What's left shouldn't have the strength to actually trouble a proper Bolton army, never mind the exact numbers.

In any case, it would take far too much time to actually get any of the remaining clansmen together for a properly planned attack on the Boltons if Ramsay was already on the march. You have to keep in mind that the clansmen don't communicate via raven.

Quote

Staying at CB to see how things pan out and see if Ramsay makes good on the threat is a pretty week option for Jon, I think.

He is pretty much in a shitty situation. If Stannis is dead, he is dead, too. Even if he were very lucky and killed Ramsay in some skirmish, this wouldn't take care of Roose Bolton, Lady Dustin, or the Freys. Nor any other Northmen who finally saw the light and realized that the Boltons were the true rulers of the North after all, while they were watching Stannis being skinned alive, begging for death.

The way out of this is not some 'grand plan' but rather the fact that the Pink Letter is not exactly right on the situation at Winterfell. Either because the battles didn't take place yet when the letter was written, or because the Boltons have some other reason to pretend Stannis is dead.

[Varysblackfyre321]

10 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Ok, let's say Ramsey wants to make a show of force and takes a strength a bit too large to overpower a single ambush. It's still worth harassing that column, try some night attacks and whittle the enemy down gradually over a long journey. The mountain clans have likely given up all their fighting men, but the greybeards and green boys left could prove some assistance to seek vengeance for their dead kin (overcoming their natural aversion to wildlings). That the two chiefs are at the Wall already is very useful, also the Liddle knows Bran is alive, I can't see clans meekly surrendering to the Boltons, they will be willing to fight them in their Highlands.

Staying at CB to see how things pan out and see if Ramsay makes good on the threat is a pretty week option for Jon, I think.

You know vegence is swell, but so is living and keeping their kin alive. The moutain clans have waged their bets on a skilled, experienced military leader, with his own trained army to lead them to victory. And in the course lose as many useless mouths as they can. Not the untested(in their eyes) boy. And the useless mouths have mostly been dealt with. Also, it may be worth considering the Boltons could/would have strived to have captured Hostages, from these clans to further compell them to submit. And the Boltons already had supposed loyalties from at least one half of House Umber. Assuming Crow’s food is dead, or captured that would only leave his brother whose alligned with House Bolton in charge. 

And both the Boltons and Wildlings have been responsible for  clansmen’s losing kin. A lot the graybeards would probably remember female kin of theirs stolen, and raped, and male kin of theirs butchered. I will not say them working together would be impossible, but I still think if they decide to do so, the situation would be delicate. 

Also, what’s the plan for when Ramsey, sends out his own scouts to track Jon and his wildlings? 

I mean they’re not just going to do nothing in response, to the attacks.

Also, if I was Ramsey I would probably place the kin of the allies have that are the most probable to defect in the columns. With Jon’s attacks, he becomes more hated.

If I even Jon the chance to do that.

@Lord Varys makes a solid point. There’s no good reason to think if Ramsey wrote the PL that he’d have sent it if Jon could possibly hurt him. He’s not a comicbook villain, who’d suddenly stop suddenly to monologue to the hero about his evil plan before its complete.It would take awhile to mobilize a force that could take on the Boltons, or fulfill the demands. Honestly, I imagine if Ramsey sent it he hopes/expects Jon to do exactly what he did- be the one to officially declare war. You know, to offset the political backlash Roose feared would happen if the Boltons attacked the watch unprovoked. 

 

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

@Lord Varys makes a solid point. There’s no good reason to think if Ramsey wrote the PL that he’d have sent it if Jon could possibly hurt him. He’s not a comicbook villain, who’d suddenly stop suddenly to monologue to the hero about his evil plan before its complete.It would take awhile to mobilize a force that could take on the Boltons, or fulfill the demands. Honestly, I imagine if Ramsey sent it he hopes/expects Jon to do exactly what he did- be the one to officially declare war. You know, to offset the political backlash Roose feared would happen if the Boltons attacked the watch unprovoked. 

One has to add the fact that if the letter is not a lie, then Mance Rayder is right now on the way to become the third Reek. This shouldn't be downplayed. If Mance is Ramsay's most recent pet now - even the mere knowledge that Mance is still alive and working on behalf of Jon Snow - is going to have a tremendous effect on those Northmen at Winterfell - especially, but not only, on those leaning more to Roose than Stannis.

It means that Stannis Baratheon is a lying to the world, and it means that he and his pet Lord Commander work with the wildlings against the North. That is no small thing that is easily ignored, especially if it is played right.

Mors Umber only agreed to fight for Stannis because he got Mance's skull for a drinking cup. What do we think he would do if he ever learned how people played him for a fool?

We all assume that Doran Martell finding out that Cersei played him for a fool, too, in the Gregor affair also would not exactly have a positive effect on his allegiance to King Tommen, right?

The loss of 'Arya' will have a negative effect on the Bolton regime at Winterfell. But the capture of Mance Rayder may have a rather positive effect, especially if Roose plays his cards right. Stannis will look like a filthy liar, and Jon Snow as the scheming, treasonous wildling-loving bastard that he is.

Propaganda doesn't necessarily decides battles, but it can help.

[Varysblackfyre321]

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

One has to add the fact that if the letter is not a lie, then Mance Rayder is right now on the way to become the third Reek. This shouldn't be downplayed. If Mance is Ramsay's most recent pet now - even the mere knowledge that Mance is still alive and working on behalf of Jon Snow - is going to have a tremendous effect on those Northmen at Winterfell - especially, but not only, on those leaning more to Roose than Stannis.

It means that Stannis Baratheon is a lying to the world, and it means that he and his pet Lord Commander work with the wildlings against the North. That is no small thing that is easily ignored, especially if it is played right.

Mors Umber only agreed to fight for Stannis because he got Mance's skull for a drinking cup. What do we think he would do if he ever learned how people played him for a fool?

We all assume that Doran Martell finding out that Cersei played him for a fool, too, in the Gregor affair also would not exactly have a positive effect on his allegiance to King Tommen, right?

The loss of 'Arya' will have a negative effect on the Bolton regime at Winterfell. But the capture of Mance Rayder may have a rather positive effect, especially if Roose plays his cards right. Stannis will look like a filthy liar, and Jon Snow as the scheming, treasonous wildling-loving bastard that he is.

Propaganda doesn't necessarily decides battles, but it can help.

True, the clans men largely contended on Stannis’ handling of the wildlings. They were deceived into believing the man did face Justice for his crimes(being. That should make them more distrustful. And one must, awknowledge the man who was executed was for all purposes publicly pardoned and promised sanctuary, for his alliegence. Instead he was burned at a stake. There’s no one the clansmen trust that could reasonably attest how involved Jon was in the plot-he could have been silently threatened to go along with it, or this could have been his entire idea(hell hes publicly known as having tried very hard to have the man spared-a ver), the clansmen can’t know for sure. All the All they could know is that he definitely had a hand in the deception. The clansmen would be probably wary of joining with Jon knowing he’s positioned himself along with the last of Stannis’ rebels-with Melisandre still around there should always be a real fear of the type replacement she pulled with Mance. How could they know Jon really executed the Weeper instead of someone less useful to him if he captures the wildling chieftain? Or wouldn’t pull some tricks replace some inconvenient allies with ones far more subservient?