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Jon's Shield Hall Speech and Subsequent Plan


Ser Hedge

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On 3/9/2019 at 5:25 AM, Ser Hedge said:

The Shieldhall speech is generally seen as an intention to rouse the wildlings and call for an attack on Winterfell. Of course, perhaps it was just immaturity or an emotional overreaction on Jon's part to the taunts and threats made by the author of the PL whom he believed to be Ramsay, but I'm not convinced by that given how Jon's character had been developed up to that point. Compared to where Jon was before, if the letter were true, (f)Arya was actually free from Ramsay, so a search party was more appropriate than a war host and Jon had a better chance of saving her now than he did when she was at Winterfell/Barrowton. So what if Ramsay really had Mance - Jon could deny it was Mance since everyone at the Wall had seen Mance being burnt. Northern lords wouldn't know Mance by sight anyway.

If Ramsay was marching to the wall, Jon was better placed than at any time before to defend himself. Yes, castle black has no fortifications to the south, but he could choose his ground (the nightfort maybe), he had Tormund's 3000, the wildlings who surrendered to Stannis earlier, the Queen's 50 Knights and men at arms, the watch, a giant, a direwolf and a wargeable giant boar!

Further, he could have reached out to Northern lords - he was a son of Eddard Stark after all and the watch was being attacked by a Bolton without cause (he could have argued - and used the two clan chiefs at the Wall at the time as envoys). I agree between Robb, Stannis and the troops currently in Winterfell, there were few fighting men left in the far North, but a diplomatic offensive was worth a try. It could have at the least kept some lords from joining their strength to the Bolton attack on the wall.

I somehow don't think Jon actually intended to march his army on Winterfell to fight Ramsay straight away. I think he did want to rouse them and bind them to his cause, but he must have developed a more nuanced tactical plan with Tormund before the shield hall speech. What that is, I just cannot figure out :-(

Jon could not deny Mance wasn't who Ramsay claimed him to be. I mean, he could, but we've been shown time and again that justice in Westeros boils down to whoever has the most power is right. Ramsay is, by law, Lord of Winterfell. Roose is, by law, Warden of the North. Jon is the bastard Lord Commander of a military order that is essentially, at this point, defunct. The position of the North at this time is such that whatever the Boltons say goes. The other Lords don't really have a choice, practically and lawfully, but to go along with it barring interference from an outside power like Stannis. But Stannis is, according to the letter, dead. So for all Jon's knowledge, he's alone in this. It also happens that the Bolton's claims with regards to this issue are actually the truth. Any northern lord who'd seen Mance before he defected could back up their accusations. So even if we do assume that lords loyal to the Starks would want to side with Jon, even if we assume that they wouldn't consider it a betrayal for Jon to have allowed wildlings to infiltrate south of the Wall, they have no leverage against the Boltons that Jon can currently use to his advantage. 

Jon is in a bad position at the Wall. He has wildling refugees holed up in Mole's Town. He has supplies that he desperately needs to keep protected. Personnel is stretched too thin to protect the Wall from the north, let alone from the south. He has approximately 1000 fighting men, and even more mouths to feed. Waiting for Ramsay to attack the Wall, regardless of which castle they choose to wait at, is probably Jon's worst bet. There are too many variables to consider with no room for error. 

He can try to reach out to northern lords, but he can't expect much from them. Again, practically, they have very little to offer. Even if they had the will to respond favorably to Jon (which is a bit of a stretch) very few of them would have the means. 

He definitely was not planning on marching on Winterfell. He thinks that he needs Mel to find Ramsay. If he were planning on attacking Ramsay there, he wouldn't exactly need to go looking for him. Additionally, even if Jon's response is a mistake, he's not an idiot. People who aren't idiots make mistakes all the time. 

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On 3/8/2019 at 12:41 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

Jon was going to lead the wildlings savages to attack the Boltons.  That's why poor Bowen Marsh had little choice but to kill him.  Jon could not be allowed to do that.  The NW has a duty to protect the Boltons, not attack them over a sister.  

Poor Bowen Marsh, he never did understand that leaving the wildling savages north of the Wall would only serve to bring a greater threat to the Seven Kingdoms they were sworn to protect when those wildlings became wights that obey the Others as enemies of humanity.  Poor Bowen Marsh is among the majority of people on the Wall or south of the Wall that fail to comprehend the threat to humanity that is amassing north of the Wall but Jon is not among them.  Jon gets it. 

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12 hours ago, White Ravens said:

Poor Bowen Marsh, he never did understand that leaving the wildling savages north of the Wall would only serve to bring a greater threat to the Seven Kingdoms they were sworn to protect when those wildlings became wights that obey the Others as enemies of humanity.  Poor Bowen Marsh is among the majority of people on the Wall or south of the Wall that fail to comprehend the threat to humanity that is amassing north of the Wall but Jon is not among them.  Jon gets it. 

Poor Jon doesn't get it.  He does know nothing.  He should have kept the peace with the Boltons instead of doing something so reckless as to send his operative, who also happens to be a sworn brother of the NW, to fetch his sister.  Jon was a hypocrite throughout that whole time.  He sent a sworn brother of the watch to do something criminal and against the laws of the land.  Mance Rayder is still a man of the watch and what he did under Jon's orders was illegal.  Killing the Bolton servants was very inappropriate and broke the custom of guest rights.  

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A lot of the comments are using our knowledge of the events and people to pass judgement of Jon, but forget that Jon has been isolated and does not know what we know. 

The big problem with his "Plan" (which we know little of) is his plan to divide his forces.  The Hardhome endeavor is doomed, and thus  many of his the Night's Watch brothers will be as well. 

 

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On 3/12/2019 at 6:17 PM, Chris Mormont said:

 

A lot of the comments are using our knowledge of the events and people to pass judgement of Jon, but forget that Jon has been isolated and does not know what we know. 

 

A very good point. Similarly, I think we subconsciously attribute availability of full information to the actors present in Winterfell. 'A captured Mance Rayder is bad because he is real and Jon did indeed send him to free his sister.'  As far as the Lords are concerned, this is a pretty fantastic story being spun by the Boltons. Yes, maybe Jon did want to free his sister, so what? We can hear how well Ramsay treats her. And Jon is so supposed to have sent the King o' the wildlings to free her? What a skin o'tales.

 

On 3/11/2019 at 3:21 AM, Alaynsa Starne said:

Any northern lord who'd seen Mance before he defected could back up their accusations. 

Ah, but no one probably has. Mance may have visited their halls when they hosted a fair or a feast for their small folk, or maybe at another time, posing as a bard, but they are not like to remember the face of a random commoner from years ago. While I agree that Jon's wildling policies are always an issue, apart from the two clan chiefs at the wall, the rest of the North does not know about the full extent of his policies yet, likely not even the Alys-Magnar wedding yet. And the mountain clan chiefs were not sending ravens to all the North with daily updates. For all the actors in WF know, it was Stannis' doing, letting the first batch of defeated wildlings in. So, maybe Jon picked one of them to free Arya, good on him! So maybe he picked their king?! Ha, he's got some style that lad, making the king beyond the wall to do his dirty work, seems smarter than what we get with the usual Starks!

So, I think we are overreacting to Mance being in a cage, at this point in time.

I will come back on the reactions to other aspects of Jon's plan later, just catching up.

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On 3/11/2019 at 1:23 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

You know vegence is swell, but so is living and keeping their kin alive. The moutain clans have waged their bets on a skilled, experienced military leader, with his own trained army to lead them to victory. And in the course lose as many useless mouths as they can. Not the untested(in their eyes) boy. And the useless mouths have mostly been dealt with. Also, it may be worth considering the Boltons could/would have strived to have captured Hostages, from these clans to further compell them to submit. And the Boltons already had supposed loyalties from at least one half of House Umber. Assuming Crow’s food is dead, or captured that would only leave his brother whose alligned with House Bolton in charge

And both the Boltons and Wildlings have been responsible for  clansmen’s losing kin. A lot the graybeards would probably remember female kin of theirs stolen, and raped, and male kin of theirs butchered. I will not say them working together would be impossible, but I still think if they decide to do so, the situation would be delicate. 

Also, what’s the plan for when Ramsey, sends out his own scouts to track Jon and his wildlings? 

I mean they’re not just going to do nothing in response, to the attacks.

 Also, if I was Ramsey I would probably place the kin of the allies have that are the most probable to defect in the columns. With Jon’s attacks, he becomes more hated.

These mountain clans are clearly modelled on Scottish Highlanders. Blood feuds run deep, so the animosity towards the Boltons will be strengthened by the defeat of their kin riding with Stannis. It is of course possible that their strength is spent and that they cannot provide any more swords. Their reaction to the wildlings could also be problematic, but perhaps not unsurmountable.

 

On 3/10/2019 at 10:15 PM, Lord Varys said:

You have to keep in mind that the clansmen don't communicate via raven.

Yes, that's why the presence of the two chiefs at the wall is god sent. They have observed the whole process of how Jon dealt with this (including asking for hostages) and if they agree to help him here, then they can ride back to provide whatever help is possible from their mountains, even if it's just a refuge for Jon's ambush parties to launch hit and run raids on the Kingsroad. Will that by itself solve Jon's problems? No, but we are putting together all the things Jon can do to give himself as many options as possible.

Finally, to the presence of Highland clan hostages, @Varysblackfyre321 , in Ramsay's column: They rode forth for "blood and battle" and to die "with the taste of Bolton blood on their lips". In an attack or melee, they should turn on the Boltons if they can. It would actually be pointless for Ramsay to be marching to CB with clan hostages in tow. Lowland northerners like Manderleys? Maybe, but don't see the point of that either, they might slow his column down. I think we are overthinking this, Jon, after receiving the PL, needed to tie up all the allies he could. We saw he got the wildlings. He should have reached out to the clans next.

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On 3/9/2019 at 10:05 PM, Rose of Red Lake said:

I think it will, although I'm not sure how yet. I just see it as an obstacles later when Jon does try to rally the North, he'll face difficulties because of his wildling policies. I think it's just GRRM trying to be realistic and also make it harder for Jon. Another thing I think will happen is that the women will have to run most of the Houses Jon would ally with, and although they will have a standing army, it will be greatly reduced. If the male Manderlys are dead, for instance, I bet the Manderly daughters are in the queue. It doesn't mean the houses are "done" though. 

Great points about both Jon's wildling policies and the greatly reduced armies of the various houses. Taking a story-external approach, the wildlings are a way of giving Jon his own band of followers that he would not have been able to raise otherwise given the feudal structures. The reduced strength of the houses will effectively give him the vacuum to operate in as a 'new' player. In some sense this is similar to Daenerys raising not just an army but a 'people' from freed slaves, which works better in the story than just hiring sellswords or using the Dothraki followers of her dead husband.

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On 3/10/2019 at 10:15 PM, Lord Varys said:

If I had written the letter and it was more or less true, then I'd be a couple of days away from CB when sending the letter, giving the bastard the time to arrest Stannis' people and my wife so I can take them when I suddenly arrive and the time to amass a small enough force to race directly in my trap.

That would be fiendishly devious, but still a force of several hundred wildlings coming the other way might not necessarily be what Ramsay was expecting. Throw in a direwolf and maybe Wun Wun and this could be quite a mess. Both parties would have scouts and outriders, so perhaps it does not become a full on engagement, but a series of skirmishes around the kings road and surrounding areas. Still, Jon gave himself a chance in this scenario with fighters around him.

@Lord Varys

That still leaves the scenario where Ramsay does not ride out at all that you mentioned. This will require more work :-)

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On ‎3‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 9:42 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

Poor Jon doesn't get it.  He does know nothing.  He should have kept the peace with the Boltons instead of doing something so reckless as to send his operative, who also happens to be a sworn brother of the NW, to fetch his sister.  Jon was a hypocrite throughout that whole time.  He sent a sworn brother of the watch to do something criminal and against the laws of the land.  Mance Rayder is still a man of the watch and what he did under Jon's orders was illegal.  Killing the Bolton servants was very inappropriate and broke the custom of guest rights.  

Jon didn't send any operative of his, especially not a sworn brother. Melisandre sent lord of bones, a wildling chief eho is in fact Mance, a brother of the watch that has forsworn his oathes and is thoughtto be dead by the World. Jon had provided horses and supplies mance would have acquired anyway and gave him leave to take some spearwives with him, which would have joined him either way;

 

Wildlings are prisoners of Stannis, The King IN(not of) the North and his steward in the North, Melisandre no doubt has authority to whatever she sees fit with them and she can also provide supplies to the Mance, either from Stannis' or from the stuf that NW give to Stannis.

How hard can that be to grasp, why people came up with the same thing over and over again, I really don't know.

 

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On 3/12/2019 at 2:17 PM, Chris Mormont said:

A lot of the comments are using our knowledge of the events and people to pass judgement of Jon, but forget that Jon has been isolated and does not know what we know. 

The big problem with his "Plan" (which we know little of) is his plan to divide his forces.  The Hardhome endeavor is doomed, and thus  many of his the Night's Watch brothers will be as well. 

 

Jon doesn't  need more information to tell him it was wrong to send Mance on a mission to get Arya.  He knew that already.  Whatever his plan was, it was doomed to fail because he was trying to do something stupid.  It's a good thing Bowen stopped him before Jon made more bad decisions.  

Yes.  Hardhome is going to be a disaster.  Jon let his fondness for the wildlings determine his decision.  He wasted his best trained forces to make a rescue attempt at some likely troublemakers.  

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3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Jon didn't send any operative of his, especially not a sworn brother. Melisandre sent lord of bones, a wildling chief eho is in fact Mance, a brother of the watch that has forsworn his oathes and is thoughtto be dead by the World. Jon had provided horses and supplies mance would have acquired anyway and gave him leave to take some spearwives with him, which would have joined him either way;

 

Wildlings are prisoners of Stannis, The King IN(not of) the North and his steward in the North, Melisandre no doubt has authority to whatever she sees fit with them and she can also provide supplies to the Mance, either from Stannis' or from the stuf that NW give to Stannis.

How hard can that be to grasp, why people came up with the same thing over and over again, I really don't know.

 

Breaking your oaths does not relieve you of your duties to the Night's Watch.  It doesn't matter what that criminal Mance Rayder felt.  His opinions are unimportant.  He is a sworn brother of the Night's Watch.  Desertion does not relieve him nor does it free him from his vows.  Nothing can.  Mance Rayder is still a member of the Night's Watch.  

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Based on our discussion so far and the text, I guess this is what we can say about Jon's Plan:

 

1. Jon has come to a major decision about what feels right to him, even if it means breaking his vows, even if it is 'treason''. After reading the PL and when Tormund asks him what he means to do, Jon thinks about each of his siblings, he thinks about Maester Aemon's words about killing the boy and becoming a man, he says to himself Ygritte's words "You know nothing, Jon Snow" and he thinks of Ramsay's boasts and threats specifically about skinning the spear wives (the cruelty of it - what kind of person is this?) and demanding his bride back (it must have been so bad, Arya had to run away - do I not owe it to my family to do something about this?). Clearly, Jon's taking a big decision and he confirms in the SH speech that he means to ride south to make Ramsay answer for his words.

 

2. He then raises men to fight with him, the only ones available and the ones who owe him - many of these wildlings had offered Jon their swords when they crossed the wall, out of a sense of obligation. This opportunity for an adventure, a fantastic tale about also rescuing 'Mance', who in turn seemed to have had a hand in stealing the Lord of Winterfell's bride and the possibility of blood and battle seems to have got them all excited. Perhaps it beats living in a ruined castle on the wall, perhaps it's an opportunity to go further south, perhaps it's the Bael imagery that @SFDanny posted - whatever it was, it has tied these Wildling clan chiefs to Jon more closely now. Having won their swords though, Jon will have to give them a bit of an adventure, he can't lock himself in a castle and rely on his newly won army to defend it - that is not what they signed up for here. He has to lead the bulk of them out with him.

 

3. He is going to ask Mel to look for Ramsay in her fires, thank you @kissdbyfire and @Alaynsa Starne for highlighting. I agree with them and @Free Northman Reborn that this means intercepting/ambushing Ramsay.

 

4. @Lord Varys asks what if Ramsay never rides North? That's not a chance Jon can take. If Ramsay does ride North and Jon has done nothing, it will not end well. Yes, Jon is in a bad situation if Stannis is truly dead, but has taken a bold decision to raise a small army and come out fighting.

Why will it go better for Jon's army than for Stannis?

Stannis had heavily armoured southern Knights on destriers, got stuck in the snow and starved. Jon's Wildlings can move faster than anyone through these conditions and live off the land better.

Can they fight better on open ground? Nope, so don't fight an open battle.

So, what exactly are they going to do if they can't intercept Ramsay?

We can only speculate. Theon V2.0 as @Rose of Red Lake says? Another thing Wildlings can do very well is scale walls.

 

Other Allies:

A.

@Corvo the Crow reminded us of the other giants and the mammoths at East watch.

B. The Karhold: Not just the Thenns, but any green boys and grey beards Lady Karstark can raise from her lands. She has legitimate authority over them.

C. The mountain clan chiefs at the wall have had time to observe Jon's of the situation, including requiring hostages. They are not fans of his Wildling policies, but they can see, if for some reason Wildlings have to be brought south, Jon did it the best way possible. He has leadership qualities. He can and did organise a major operation of re-settling 3000 Wildlings across several castles without any fights breaking out. The clans deeply dislike the Boltons and want to help Ned's girl, they have already declared for Stannis, whose widow and daughter Jon is now defending. And Jon is after all of Stark blood (with a mountain Flint grandmother). The Liddle knows Bran escaped WF and hence perhaps Rickon did as well. The problem of their being children is overcome if they have a capable stepbrother as described facto authority, so hopes for a Stark restoration need to have died with Stannis.

D. The Iron bank. Even if their emissary never makes it back, Jon has his piece of parchment. Obviously, he has no way of reaching them for now, but maybe at some point, he can bring them into play.

E. Any surviving Stannis forces out there, also anyone still left to the Mormonts and Glovers.

Final thoughts:

Now that Jon has taken the plunge and effectively left the NW, and assuming he survives the stabbing (or is resurrected obviously) he has put himself 'in play', politically speaking. Sure, some in the North will still think he is a vow-breaker and a wildling-lover, but others might see an opportunity here. Sure, if the Boltons truly killed Stannis, few will come out publicly, but covert help will be available. The RW is a big deal, and to Hornwoods and Manderleys, Lady Hornwood's death is too. Ramsay's treatment of (f)Arya at WF did not help, so if Jon shows himself to be even halfway capable, help will be given. 

PS: I'm sorry if I have missed anyone's contribution, I'm doing this from a phone, not that easy scrolling through all the posts. A definite thank you for everyone who disagreed (and is about to disagree) as well, it all helped/helps make this come together.

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18 hours ago, Bowen 747 said:

Breaking your oaths does not relieve you of your duties to the Night's Watch.  It doesn't matter what that criminal Mance Rayder felt.  His opinions are unimportant.  He is a sworn brother of the Night's Watch.  Desertion does not relieve him nor does it free him from his vows.  Nothing can.  Mance Rayder is still a member of the Night's Watch.  

This fact was established on the first chapter of the first novel.  The deserter got executed.  Desertion does not make the oaths go away.  Ned was not going to accept any excuse.  Any last words by the man was just a courtesy.  Ned was going to execute him and did.  Mance Rayder should have been executed.  Not sent on that mission.  

Jon's plan to attack the Boltons didn't require a lot of planning.  Gather the wildlings to his cause and attack the Boltons.  It's that simple.  The delicate part of the planning involved the question of how to keep the Night Watch from stopping his mad plan to attack.  The only way to accomplish this is to rouse the wildlings and get them fired up either before or at the same time the announcement was made.  Jon needed to get the wildlings on his side because he was going to do something that violated the rules of the Night Watch.  Jon was more concerned about the Crows than he was about anybody else.   The planning time was spent on how to keep the Crows from interfering.  This put the Crows in a tough spot.  They had to come up with a plan to stop Jon's crazy plan and do it fast.  That's why the assassination was carried out in haste.  Jon and Tormund spent hours planning.  The dedicated Crows only had minutes to plan a response.

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I suspect we need to look to the legend of Gendel and Gorne for a distant model of Jon's "March on Winterfell" strategy. (Or a version of the results we can expect from that march.)

Gendel and Gorne were brothers and they shared the title of King Beyond the Wall. They marched to Winterfell, killed the Stark lord but Gorne also died. The son of the Stark lord continued the battle and won, with help from the Night's Watch marching in behind Gendel's wildling fighters. The Night's Watch version of the tale says that Gendel died; the Free Folk version says he lived but he and the wildlings were lost in Gorne's Way on the return trip. Their descendants supposedly still live in the tunnels beneath the Wall.

I could see Jon Snow and Stannis as the contemporary equivalents of Gendel and Gorne. As Warden of the North and Lord of Winterfell, maybe Roose and Ramsay are the equivalents of the Stark lords. The deep snow would represent the tunnels: I imagine many fighters will be lost in the snow on the trip to, or the retreat from, Winterfell.

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On 3/15/2019 at 2:33 PM, Ser Hedge said:

Great points about both Jon's wildling policies and the greatly reduced armies of the various houses. Taking a story-external approach, the wildlings are a way of giving Jon his own band of followers that he would not have been able to raise otherwise given the feudal structures. The reduced strength of the houses will effectively give him the vacuum to operate in as a 'new' player.

Something that I think is important here is that Jon sees the Free Folk as human beings, and therefore part of the “realms of men” he’s sworn to defend and protect. And that’s exactly what he’s doing. Are his actions unprecedented? Yes, as far as we know. But then again, the threat the world faces now is also unprecedented, apart from the original LN, and that happened thousands of years back, before the Wall and before the separation of peoples we see now. Adapt [to new circumstances] or die, it’s that simple. Bowen Marsh is a xenophobic coward who wants to seal all the gates and plant his arse atop the Wall. Jon otoh is trying to deal with the situation the best way he can, and trying to save as many human beings as he can. 

ADwD, Jon XI

“I know what I swore.” Jon said the words. “I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. Were those the same words you said when you took your vows?”
“They were. As the lord commander knows.”
Are you certain that I have not forgotten some? The ones about the king and his laws, and how we must defend every foot of his land and cling to each ruined castle? How does that part go?” Jon waited for an answer. None came. I am the shield that guards the realms of men. Those are the words. So tell me, my lord—what are these wildlings, if not men?”
Bowen Marsh opened his mouth. No words came out. A flush crept up his neck.”

 

Quote

In some sense this is similar to Daenerys raising not just an army but a 'people' from freed slaves, which works better in the story than just hiring sellswords or using the Dothraki followers of her dead husband.

:agree:

If you haven’t yet, check out an old thread (re-read sub) called “Learning to Lead”. It’s a great read, w/ many very insightful posts by many great posters. :)

 

3 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

1. Jon has come to a major decision about what feels right to him, even if it means breaking his vows, even if it is 'treason''. After reading the PL and when Tormund asks him what he means to do, Jon thinks about each of his siblings, he thinks about Maester Aemon's words about killing the boy and becoming a man, he says to himself Ygritte's words "You know nothing, Jon Snow" and he thinks of Ramsay's boasts and threats specifically about skinning the spear wives (the cruelty of it - what kind of person is this?) and demanding his bride back (it must have been so bad, Arya had to run away - do I not owe it to my family to do something about this?). Clearly, Jon's taking a big decision and he confirms in the SH speech that he means to ride south to make Ramsay answer for his words

This, so so much, especially the bold. And it’s such a beautiful passage...

“Snow?” said Tormund Giantsbane. “You look like your father’s bloody head just rolled out o’ that paper.”

<snip>

“I won’t say you’re wrong. What do you mean to do, crow?”
Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night’s Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason. He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon’s breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady’s coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird’s nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back …
“I think we had best change the plan,” Jon Snow said.”

Jon is clearly weighing his duties and his feelings... And he makes the right decision IMO. Not the easy decision, mind you, but the right one. The easy decision is to stick to all the vows and do his duty, do what’s expected of him. But he decides to do the right thing, as he had when he decided to let the FF through the Wall, and when he decided to try and save as many as he could from HH. He has faced this type of dilemma before, and he did his duty. And Eddard is dead, Robb is dead. I bet he wonders, what if. 

And what he’s doing is the honourable thing to do, the right thing to do, and not to just do his duty and “let them die”, as Selyse, Mel, Bowen want him to do. 

3 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

2. He then raises men to fight with him, the only ones available and the ones who owe him - many of these wildlings had offered Jon their swords when they crossed the wall, out of a sense of obligation.

I’m not sure it’s purely out of a sense of obligation, I think other factors play a part as well. But the bottom line is, whether he realises it already or not, he is the de facto leader of the FF as of the end of Dance

Quote

This opportunity for an adventure, a fantastic tale about also rescuing 'Mance', who in turn seemed to have had a hand in stealing the Lord of Winterfell's bride and the possibility of blood and battle seems to have got them all excited

Here I disagree. Jon and Mel are the only ones at CB who know Mance is alive. Everyone (except the FF who arrived w/ Tormund) saw Mance burn and then be pincushioned at Jon’s command. And no one has any reason to think Mance is alive. Even Tormund, when talking privately w/ Jon, dismisses the idea and suggests the whole PL may be just lies.

When he was done, Tormund whistled. “Har. That’s buggered, and no mistake. What was that about Mance? Has him in a cage, does he? How, when hundreds saw your red witch burn the man?”

And Jon never tells him it was Rattleshirt. Maybe he told him later, when they talk for two hours, but we don’t know. At any rate, when Jon reads the letter in the Shieldhall, he never says anything about Mance being alive, and Tormund, if he’s learned about it off page, doesn’t say anything either. 

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On 3/15/2019 at 6:52 PM, Ser Hedge said:

 

Yes, that's why the presence of the two chiefs at the wall is god sent. They have observed the whole process of how Jon dealt with this (including asking for hostages) and if they agree to help him here, then they can ride back to provide whatever help is possible from their mountains, even if it's just a refuge for Jon's ambush parties to launch hit and run raids on the Kingsroad. Will that by itself solve Jon's problems? No, but we are putting together all the things Jon can do to give himself as many options as possible.

They agreed to the wildling plan with Tormund - they did not agree to allow the wildlings to march into the North avenging Stannis or fight against the Boltons. They may no longer want to fight the Boltons after they know they won. There is a time when you have to make peace even if you hate it. And they would have just lost 3,000 men, give or take, if Stannis lost. Because it is made perfectly clear that the clansmen at the village won't yield or stop fighting in their fight against the Boltons. They will fight to the bitter end, and if the Boltons won then all of them - or at least most of them - will be dead.

Even if they had men left - they would first have to ride back there and they would have muster such men, because if whatever men they have had assembled already they would have gone with Stannis. That would take considerable time, even if it were feasible.

On 3/15/2019 at 8:49 PM, Ser Hedge said:

That would be fiendishly devious, but still a force of several hundred wildlings coming the other way might not necessarily be what Ramsay was expecting. Throw in a direwolf and maybe Wun Wun and this could be quite a mess. Both parties would have scouts and outriders, so perhaps it does not become a full on engagement, but a series of skirmishes around the kings road and surrounding areas. Still, Jon gave himself a chance in this scenario with fighters around him.

@Lord Varys

That still leaves the scenario where Ramsay does not ride out at all that you mentioned. This will require more work :-)

Even if we assume Jon is terribly lucky and kills Ramsay - what's the point of that? Ramsay isn't the Warden of the North, his father is. And the fact that Ramsay already wrote two intimidation letters - one to Asha and another one to Jon before the Pink Letter - strongly suggests that this third letter is just part of that 'genre', too, meaning that Roose would be - if the letter were true - in perfect health and complete control of Winterfell.

Half the North already bent the knee to Roose before Stannis marched - how likely is it that any of the men playing both sides or trying to conspire against him would continue such efforts after Stannis and most/all his troops (including the Northmen he gathered) were destroyed?

Jon cannot hope to prevail against the Bolton if they crushed Stannis. Even if Jon actually surprised Ramsay somehow - he would have just taken out Roose Bolton's unpopular son. Roose himself is not going to be played by Jon.

If Roose had won then Jon's wildling army would suffer the same fate Stannis' wildling army would have suffered on their way to the Dreadfort. The Northmen would attack it on the way because there is simply no way a majority of the Northmen would accept a Lord Commander of the Night's Watch leading an army against Winterfell. 

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6 hours ago, Seams said:

I suspect we need to look to the legend of Gendel and Gorne for a distant model of Jon's "March on Winterfell" strategy. (Or a version of the results we can expect from that march.)

Gendel and Gorne were brothers and they shared the title of King Beyond the Wall. They marched to Winterfell, killed the Stark lord but Gorne also died. The son of the Stark lord continued the battle and won, with help from the Night's Watch marching in behind Gendel's wildling fighters. The Night's Watch version of the tale says that Gendel died; the Free Folk version says he lived but he and the wildlings were lost in Gorne's Way on the return trip. Their descendants supposedly still live in the tunnels beneath the Wall.

I could see Jon Snow and Stannis as the contemporary equivalents of Gendel and Gorne. As Warden of the North and Lord of Winterfell, maybe Roose and Ramsay are the equivalents of the Stark lords. The deep snow would represent the tunnels: I imagine many fighters will be lost in the snow on the trip to, or the retreat from, Winterfell.

Well that is assuming Stannis isn't already dead.  There is little evidence to support that it was a lie.  Ramsay claimed the battle was won and Stannis is dead. 

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11 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Jon and Mel are the only ones at CB who know Mance is alive. Everyone (except the FF who arrived w/ Tormund) saw Mance burn and then be pincushioned at Jon’s command. And no one has any reason to think Mance is alive. Even Tormund, when talking privately w/ Jon, dismisses the idea and suggests the whole PL may be just lies.

When he was done, Tormund whistled. “Har. That’s buggered, and no mistake. What was that about Mance? Has him in a cage, does he? How, when hundreds saw your red witch burn the man?”

And Jon never tells him it was Rattleshirt. Maybe he told him later, when they talk for two hours, but we don’t know. At any rate, when Jon reads the letter in the Shieldhall, he never says anything about Mance being alive, and Tormund, if he’s learned about it off page, doesn’t say anything either. 

I don't disagree, but I was wondering about the outright exuberance in the SH. Maybe it was battlelust or just their way of endorsing their new leader's gung ho, all action style that speaks to them "Hey these kneelers aren't so bad after all, eh", but I was wondering if there was more to it than that. Jon does not explicitly deny the PL's claims that it is Mance. After all Tormund and the vast majority of FF in the SH did not actually see Mance being pincushioned and burnt, they only heard of it second-hand, it's easier to disbelieve it when you did not actually see it happen. Perhaps, they are reading something into Jon's silence about the possibility of the truth of the claim. So, essentially I thought they might be part-cheering the possibility Mance is still alive, part-cheering Jon's expedition.

When they came through the wall, their support for Jon was grudging, since they had to give up hostages (a custom the FF were most likely not used to, and one even kneelers obviously only do very reluctantly) and their wealth, hence I thought at that point in time, they only gave Jon their swords out of a sense of obligation. The SS speech has changed that, but I am not completely sure it was just Jon they were cheering. Perhaps they were and that builds Jon's story arc faster, but other readers would still have other interpretations.

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42 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

I don't disagree, but I was wondering about the outright exuberance in the SH. Maybe it was battlelust or just their way of endorsing their new leader's gung ho, all action style that speaks to them "Hey these kneelers aren't so bad after all, eh", but I was wondering if there was more to it than that. Jon does not explicitly deny the PL's claims that it is Mance. After all Tormund and the vast majority of FF in the SH did not actually see Mance being pincushioned and burnt, they only heard of it second-hand, it's easier to disbelieve it when you did not actually see it happen. Perhaps, they are reading something into Jon's silence about the possibility of the truth of the claim. So, essentially I thought they might be part-cheering the possibility Mance is still alive, part-cheering Jon's expedition.

When they came through the wall, their support for Jon was grudging, since they had to give up hostages (a custom the FF were most likely not used to, and one even kneelers obviously only do very reluctantly) and their wealth, hence I thought at that point in time, they only gave Jon their swords out of a sense of obligation. The SS speech has changed that, but I am not completely sure it was just Jon they were cheering. Perhaps they were and that builds Jon's story ark faster, but other readers would still have other interpretations.

True, Jon doesn’t deny the letter’s claim that Mance is in a cage. And it’s also true the FF that came w/ Tormund were not there when “Mance” was executed. But none of them seem to doubt it. 

ADwD, Jon V

“And then Halleck. “I don’t like you, crow,” he growled, “but I never liked the Mance neither, no more’n my sister did. Still, we fought for him. Why not fight for you?”

ADwD, Jon VII

“The Wall is only a few hours south of here,” said Jon. “Why not seek shelter there? Others yielded. Even Mance.”
The wildlings exchanged looks. Finally one said, “We heard stories. The crows burned all them that yielded.”
Even Mance hisself,” the woman added.”

And there’s Tormund, doubting the contents of the letter in Jon XIII, partly because of the claim that Mance is in a cage:

“Har. That’s buggered, and no mistake. What was that about Mance? Has him in a cage, does he? How, when hundreds saw your red witch burn the man?”

So, I think that saving Mance is not playing a part in the reaction we see from the FF  in the Shieldhall. IMO their reaction is, in part, battle list, seeing an opportunity to go fight instead of being banged up at CB. I think the claim that spearwives were flayed may have played a part as well. They don’t believe Mance is alive, but they can’t be sure Ramsay hasn’t captured a few spearwives. And the other thing adding to the above is that Jon is the only chance the FF at HH have, and they know it. Tormund himself will lead that ranging, and Jon will go to face Ramsay alone while they sit on their arses at CB? Hell, no! And I think the way Jon addresses them has a lot to do w/ his private 2-hr convo w/ Tormund. I think Tormund coached Jon, telling him what to say and how. 

 

“At the top of the hall a sagging platform stood. Jon mounted it, with Tormund Giantsbane at his side, and raised his hands for quiet. The wasps only buzzed the louder. Then Tormund put his warhorn to his lips and blew a blast. The sound filled the hall, echoing off the rafters overhead. Silence fell.
“I summoned you to make plans for the relief of Hardhome,” Jon Snow began. “Thousands of the free folk are gathered there, trapped and starving, and we have had reports of dead things in the wood.” To his left he saw Marsh and Yarwyck. Othell was surrounded by his builders, whilst Bowen had Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd beside him. To his right, Soren Shieldbreaker sat with his arms crossed against his chest. Farther back, Jon saw Gavin the Trader and Harle the Handsome whispering together. Ygon Oldfather sat amongst his wives, Howd Wanderer alone. Borroq leaned against a wall in a dark corner. Mercifully, his boar was nowhere in evidence. “The ships I sent to take off Mother Mole and her people have been wracked by storms. We must send what help we can by land or let them die.” Two of Queen Selyse’s knights had come as well, Jon saw. Ser Narbert and Ser Benethon stood near the door at the foot of the hall. But the rest of the queen’s men were conspicuous in their absence. “I had hoped to lead the ranging myself and bring back as many of the free folk as could survive the journey.” A flash of red in the back of the hall caught Jon’s eye. Lady Melisandre had arrived. “But now I find I cannot go to Hardhome. The ranging will be led by Tormund Giantsbane, known to you all. I have promised him as many men as he requires.
“And where will you be, crow?” Borroq thundered. “Hiding here in Castle Black with your white dog?”
“No. I ride south.” Then Jon read them the letter Ramsay Snow had written.
The Shieldhall went mad.

Every man began to shout at once. They leapt to their feet, shaking fists. So much for the calming power of comfortable benches. Swords were brandished, axes smashed against shields. Jon Snow looked to Tormund. The Giantsbane sounded his horn once more, twice as long and twice as loud as the first time. 

“The Night’s Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms,” Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. “It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.
The Night’s Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …” Jon paused. “is there any man here who will come stand with me?
The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that the two old shields tumbled from the walls. Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the Great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if we assume Jon is terribly lucky and kills Ramsay - what's the point of that? Ramsay isn't the Warden of the North, his father is.

Yes, but Jon would have entered the game of thrones officially, with his own army. The north did not know much about him until now, and he was not a participant in their politics. If he manages to save (f)Arya, while having dealt with Ramsay, some (if they actually believe her to be Arya) may think that there is now a legitimate Stark figurehead they could rally around, with Jon as the de facto power. Besides, Manderley and Glover think they can reach Rickon, the Liddle knows Bran is alive. If Sansa let someone in the North know that she is around and might have the Vale behind her ..... you can see a lot of potential for things to unravel for Roose.

In terms of strategy, if Jon manages to deal with Ramsay, the next step should not be to march on the Dreadfort or take on any other Bolton loyalists, but to reach out all the lords and ladies and consolidate/negotiate. Should Stannis or Shireen legitimize Jon that would help, or if Rob's will surfaced, even more so - to deal with his NW vows.

One argument of course is that Jon cannot know about Bran, Rickon or Sansa. As far as he knows Stannis is most likely dead and it is not clear if Selyse as regent would be quick thinking enough to ask Shireen to legitimize him and release him from his vows. Jon doesn't know about Rob's will either. He, however, believe Arya to be real, and he will be looking for her after (or on the way to) dealing with Ramsay. Perhaps he intends to install her as the Lady of Winterfell and then take things from there. In his mind, he's doing what is right.

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