Jon's Shield Hall Speech and Subsequent Plan

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

Yes, but Jon would have entered the game of thrones officially, with his own army. The north did not know much about him until now, and he was not a participant in their politics. If he manages to save (f)Arya, while having dealt with Ramsay, some (if they actually believe her to be Arya) may think that there is now a legitimate Stark figurehead they could rally around, with Jon as the de facto power. Besides, Manderley and Glover think they can reach Rickon, the Liddle knows Bran is alive. If Sansa let someone in the North know that she is around and might have the Vale behind her ..... you can see a lot of potential for things to unravel for Roose.

One Liddle knows that Brandon Stark was alive. They don't know where he is nor whether he is still alive. And they did not care that he was alive, either, did they? They saw him and they let him go rather than take him in. An absent prince is as good as a dead one.

And apparently said Liddle - or other Liddles with Stannis in ADwD - didn't care to inform either Stannis or Jon Snow about the fact that Brandon Stark is still alive (and thus Rickon Stark, too). In fact, Lord Wyman Manderly and Robett Glover also don't care to inform Jon Snow about stuff like that, just as Howland Reed - if Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover are with him - also does not care to inform Jon Snow about Robb's will - assuming it actually legitimized him.

The sham of 'Arya Stark' would have been unraveled the moment Jon and Jeyne actually met - unless Jon was willing to support an impostor Arya Stark - which I don't see - this thing would have unraveled immediately.

Wyman Manderly would be dead, too, if Stannis was crushed - and Ramsay/Roose would likely send 'chops of Manderly' to White Harbor rather than 'pieces of prince' considering that Roose would be learning about the Frey pies before he would allow the fat man to die. Wylis Manderly was pretty much a shell of a man when Jaime freed him at Harrenhal. That guy is not likely going to continue his father's plans once said father - and all the Manderly knights at Winterfell - met an unpleasant end.

The Stark power base for a restoration of Rickon Stark would be almost non-existent after a Bolton victory at Winterfell.

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

In terms of strategy, if Jon manages to deal with Ramsay, the next step should not be to march on the Dreadfort or take on any other Bolton loyalists, but to reach out all the lords and ladies and consolidate/negotiate. Should Stannis or Shireen legitimize Jon that would help, or if Rob's will surfaced, even more so - to deal with his NW vows.

But they have no fall-back position, have they? Castle Black and the other castles at the Wall cannot be defended against the south, so it should be rather easy to crush them completely.

Shireen or Stannis or Robb's will could legitimize Jon, but that wouldn't get him out of his vows. He could not possibly set himself up as the new ruler of the North. Especially not with the wildlings backing him.

[Eli Cross]

On 3/8/2019 at 3:25 PM, Ser Hedge said:

The Shieldhall speech is generally seen as an intention to rouse the wildlings and call for an attack on Winterfell. Of course, perhaps it was just immaturity or an emotional overreaction on Jon's part to the taunts and threats made by the author of the PL whom he believed to be Ramsay, but I'm not convinced by that given how Jon's character had been developed up to that point. Compared to where Jon was before, if the letter were true, (f)Arya was actually free from Ramsay, so a search party was more appropriate than a war host and Jon had a better chance of saving her now than he did when she was at Winterfell/Barrowton. So what if Ramsay really had Mance - Jon could deny it was Mance since everyone at the Wall had seen Mance being burnt. Northern lords wouldn't know Mance by sight anyway.

Jon can't deny because Ramsay got all the information out of Mance.  Mance talked and his helpers talked.  The lie has been revealed.  The crime has been committed.  It's too late to play games with Ramsay and his allies.  

If Ramsay was marching to the wall, Jon was better placed than at any time before to defend himself. Yes, castle black has no fortifications to the south, but he could choose his ground (the nightfort maybe), he had Tormund's 3000, the wildlings who surrendered to Stannis earlier, the Queen's 50 Knights and men at arms, the watch, a giant, a direwolf and a wargeable giant boar!

Jon wants to get Arya away from Ramsay.  He made his choice to save Arya.  The wall and the safety of his men were no longer important to him.  Jon put all of his eggs in the Arya basket because Samwell was not there to give him sound advice.

Further, he could have reached out to Northern lords - he was a son of Eddard Stark after all and the watch was being attacked by a Bolton without cause (he could have argued - and used the two clan chiefs at the Wall at the time as envoys). I agree between Robb, Stannis and the troops currently in Winterfell, there were few fighting men left in the far North, but a diplomatic offensive was worth a try. It could have at the least kept some lords from joining their strength to the Bolton attack on the wall.

The Boltons haven't attacked anybody.  It's Jon who attacked them.  The lords of the north are not about to rebel again.  They already bent their knees to Tommen and accepted Roose Bolton as their boss.  Supporting Jon would mean rebellion against Tommen.  It would also mean accepting the Wildlings and sharing land with them.  Recognizing Lord Thenn's right to Karstark lands and titles.  Overlook Jon's leaving the Watch and breaking neutrality.  It's too much when all they want is peace.

I somehow don't think Jon actually intended to march his army on Winterfell to fight Ramsay straight away. I think he did want to rouse them and bind them to his cause, but he must have developed a more nuanced tactical plan with Tormund before the shield hall speech. What that is, I just cannot figure out :-(

 

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Please make sure you read Post #4 by @kissdbyfirefor the original text

Post #52 tries to summarize the main discussion so far, if you are just joining and are pressed for time, you can start there

 

 

[Ser Hedge]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They saw him and they let him go rather than take him in. 

Good point, I have wondered about that in the past, need to re-read that encounter, it could be the Liddle did not want to interfere with Bran's plans.

 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And apparently said Liddle - or other Liddles with Stannis in ADwD - didn't care to inform either Stannis or Jon Snow about the fact that Brandon Stark is still alive (and thus Rickon Stark, too).

Well, this could be because they don't have anything concrete to tell Stannis yet - they have no idea where Bran is at the moment. I guess their main aim is to fight the Boltons, once (and if) that's accomplished, and Stannis looks to name a Lord of Winterfell, that would be the time. We also really don't know what conversations the clan chiefs, Mormonts and smaller clans/house chiefs sworn to the Glovers are having amongst themselves, they are not going to be doing it within Asha's earshot.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Lord Wyman Manderly and Robett Glover also don't care to inform Jon Snow about stuff like that

Jon was sworn to the NW, hence I guess neither the Liddle nor Wyman and Robett thought to get in touch, as they think there was nothing Jon could do about anything anyway. Also, this is not something to put in a Raven message. Wyman, is however acting on this Intel at the soonest opportunity and he has shared the information with Stannis' hand.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

just as Howland Reed - if Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover are with him - also does not care to inform Jon Snow about Robb's will - assuming it actually legitimized him.

Waiting for the right opportunity? To prematurely crown him would be to kill him? Need to gather houses and men that will stand with him against the Boltons before making the big announcement. Maybe they are waiting to see what happens with Stannis, waiting for the Freys to head back south, it's impossible to say. 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Wyman Manderly would be dead, too, if Stannis was crushed -

We know that, but actors outside WF don't necessarily. White Harbor is a populous city and WM did not all his strength with him.

 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But they have no fall-back position, have they? Castle Black and the other castles at the Wall cannot be defended against the south, so it should be rather easy to crush them completely.

The Karhold? Deepwood Motte is not very strong, but an option. If you have to lie low for a while, Bear Island, the mountains, Skargos, the Neck, though if he had full information, Jon should head to White Harbor. The north is a vast place, food and shelter are a problem if the weather is going to just stay like this all the time, but that also means Roose cannot go marching around the entire region with a large army. There's a good reason why wars were not fought in winter in the real world in medieval times. 

[Lord Varys]

39 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Good point, I have wondered about that in the past, need to re-read that encounter, it could be the Liddle did not want to interfere with Bran's plans.

Since they don't even talk about any plans and it is rather clear that Bran is still a child who doesn't know what's good for him such an explanation is odd. I mean, do we think that Lord Wyman would have cared that Bran had 'a plan' had they met on the road? I don't think so.

39 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Well, this could be because they don't have anything concrete to tell Stannis yet - they have no idea where Bran is at the moment. I guess their main aim is to fight the Boltons, once (and if) that's accomplished, and Stannis looks to name a Lord of Winterfell, that would be the time. We also really don't know what conversations the clan chiefs, Mormonts and smaller clans/house chiefs sworn to the Glovers are having amongst themselves, they are not going to be doing it within Asha's earshot.

There are several important Liddles with Stannis, so it is odd that nobody told him that at least one of Lord Eddard's sons is still alive. But nobody seems to look for Bran, anyway.

39 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Jon was sworn to the NW, hence I guess neither the Liddle nor Wyman and Robett thought to get in touch, as they think there was nothing Jon could do about anything anyway. Also, this is not something to put in a Raven message. Wyman, is however acting on this Intel at the soonest opportunity and he has shared the information with Stannis' hand.

Not sure why one couldn't mention that in a raven. Sure, Wyman doesn't trust his own maester, but he doesn't has to allow his maester to read letters he has already sealed.

The Boltons clearly do know what happened, so loyalist Stark friends have to know it, too, so they can look for the boys.

39 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Waiting for the right opportunity? To prematurely crown him would be to kill him? Need to gather houses and men that will stand with him against the Boltons before making the big announcement. Maybe they are waiting to see what happens with Stannis, waiting for the Freys to head back south, it's impossible to say. 

Well, it rather obvious failing to actually reveal and install a successor to Robb's crown while his kingdom hasn't completely disintegrated is rather crucial. A legitimized Jon technically could have taken possession of Winterfell long before Roose Bolton ever returned back north. 

The reason why Northmen gather around Roose at all is because Robb Stark didn't leave any male heirs.

39 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

We know that, but actors outside WF don't necessarily. White Harbor is a populous city and WM did not all his strength with him.

Oh, but if Ramsay can write a letter to Jon Snow he can write a lot of letters to other castles in the North, too. He can also send out messenger riders, etc. 

Not all the remaining Manderly strength was with Lord Wyman, true, but Lord Wyman didn't have the will to actually actively move in favor of a Stark restoration while Tywin was still alive and while Davos hadn't yet arrived in the city.

39 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

The Karhold? Deepwood Motte is not very strong, but an option. If you have to lie low for a while, Bear Island, the mountains, Skargos, the Neck, though if he had full information, Jon should head to White Harbor. The north is a vast place, food and shelter are a problem if the weather is going to just stay like this all the time, but that also means Roose cannot go marching around the entire region with a large army. There's a good reason why wars were not fought in winter in the real world in medieval times. 

Those castles are hundreds of leagues away from the Wall, and none of them actually can support the thousands of refugees Jon has taken in. The Glovers and Karstarks don't have sufficient winter provisions for themselves. They cannot feed additional mouths. Roose has some problems with provisions at Winterfell, too, but there is no indication that he and his Dustin and Ryswell allies are in as dire situation there as the Glovers and Karstarks. And the latter are real down to their last men. Cregan Karstark apparently didn't have a sufficient enough garrison to pursue Alys Karstark or to keep her out of Karhold upon her arrival with Sigorn and his men.

The problem with the islands is that they don't seem to have the ships to move people there, especially at the eastern coast. The Skagosi don't have ships, and Jon didn't even have the ships for the original Hardhome mission.

Also, Jon actually wants to hold the Wall and prevent the Others from coming into the Realm. How could he hope to accomplish that if pretty much all his men abandoned their posts?

[Rose of Red Lake]

The plot illustrates how sometimes the realm has to be defended from the south and how humans can be just as scary as a generic fantasy threat. I disagree that Jon is supposed to just stand by while Ramsay is raping, torturing, flaying and starving his own people. It's supposed to be a dilemma for Jon, there is no clear cut answer about what he should do. But one things for sure, it's definitely not sit at the Wall, be neutral, and wait for the Lannisters to ignore his pleas for aid. 

[Ser Hedge]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Since they don't even talk about any plans and it is rather clear that Bran is still a child who doesn't know what's good for him such an explanation is odd. I mean, do we think that Lord Wyman would have cared that Bran had 'a plan' had they met on the road? I don't think so.

Yeah, it's a bit of a Tom Bombadil scene, once you've read the entire epic and come back to it, you feel a bit, "err.... does this really fit in", here more for plot reasons than style. I guess you can argue the Liddle did see the Reeds travel with Bran, and assumed they had a good plan, maybe seek refuge at CB. Maybe he didn't trust the other clans enough to take them in and be betrayed, but overall it's a bit weak, I agree. This needs a bit of a backstory to reconcile with the "blood and battle" hungry mountain clans riding with Stannis to bathe in Bolton blood and to rescue The Ned's girl.

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, it rather obvious failing to actually reveal and install a successor to Robb's crown while his kingdom hasn't completely disintegrated is rather crucial. 

The RW was a huge game changer, both psychologically and in terms of the hostages taken.  The Iron born controlled Moat Cailin, Torrhen Square and Deepwood Motte, while the bastard of Bolton roamed free in the North. A few key loyalists (Mormont, Glover) were somewhere in transit, so it's not surprising Stark loyalists didn't fall over themselves to come out with their support right after. What happened to the crew stuck in the Neck or wherever with Rob's will, hard to say. Waiting to get more support before approaching the heir stated in the will?

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

but Lord Wyman didn't have the will to actually actively move in favor of a Stark restoration while Tywin was still aliv

His son was a hostage.

Look I'm not arguing that the Stark supporters were fanatics. They are like real world barons in England or Scotland: support a rebel/independent king, get defeated, lie low for a while, hope you don't face the worst punishment and when the next rebellion starts again, re-assess.

The Wallace/Bruce years were a continuous cycle of Nobles rising in rebellion, surrendering to Edward I or II, and trying again later. Sometimes, some of them get alienated from the rebellion/indepence movement because their traditional rivals were treated better and ended up changing sides again.

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Those castles are hundreds of leagues away from the Wall, and none of them actually can support the thousands of refugees Jon has taken in.

Agreed, I was thinking in military terms. He cannot take all the refugees in Mole's town with him into any fortress for sure. You can, however, argue that since Jon cannot protect all the people he has taken in against a 'visit' from Ramsay, he's better off going on the offensive in the first place. Imagine Ramsay actually came riding up there to collect his prizes and then also found all the refugees in Mole's town, Long Barrow, CB etc? 

In terms of feeding them long-term, Jon has the IB loan, but really at the moment, worrying about the long-term is a luxury, anyway.

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, Jon actually wants to hold the Wall and prevent the Others from coming into the Realm. How could he hope to accomplish that if pretty much all his men abandoned their posts?

I agree with @Rose of Red Lake above on this issue. To protect the Wildlings from the Others, he brought them south, where they have the Wall as a defence. A better manned Wall protects everyone in the 7K as well. Now in order to protect those manning the Wall, he has to ride South to sort out Ramsay. It's fire-fighting for sure, but there aren't a ton of better options at this point in time.

[Chris Mormont]

On 3/15/2019 at 8:00 PM, Bowen 747 said:

Yes.  Hardhome is going to be a disaster.  Jon let his fondness for the wildlings determine his decision.  He wasted his best trained forces to make a rescue attempt at some likely troublemakers.  

Jon's decision about Hardhome is not based on his "fondness" for the wildings, it is based on the fact that once these wildings are killed, and we know that will happen, they will become wights and then they will be more than troublemakers.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I suspect it was a plot device so that his men would whack him. 

Quote

Three-headed Trios has the tower with the three turrets. The first head devours the dying, and the reborn emerge from the third. I don't know what the middle head's supposed to do.

The Ugly Little Girl, Dance 64

Daenerys was our first Targaryen hero, Aegon is revealed to be our second (black or red, a dragon is still a dragon), and the special snowflake will be revealed to be the third. He had to die to be reborn. 

Quote

Kill the boy and let the man be born. 

Jon II, Dance 7

[Ser Hedge]

27 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

 

I suspect it was a plot device so that his men would whack him. 

 

Ah, if Gandalf had summoned the eagles earlier, it would have been a less interesting story :-)

[Rose of Red Lake]

48 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I suspect it was a plot device so that his men would whack him. 

Or worse, to get out of his Night's Watch vows. Which is a cop-out. I want him to break more oaths. 

[DMC]

Been thinking about this recently and have something new to say on the whole subject.  Anyone that thinks Jon made the wrong "political" decision by conducting the Shield Hall speech is an idiot.  There are, of course, other avenues he could have taken that we the readers know, but in his position -- at that moment?  Nah, he made the exactly right decision.  

Did Jon make mistakes?  Sure.  So did Dany.  They're kids that we're supposed to believe are capable of leading large groups while also being teenagers.  If they didn't make mistakes Martin wouldn't be doing his job.  In this, or Jon's case, however, he did the exactly right thing that any political analyst that didn't have fire magic would tell him to do. 

Once he got the pink letter he was backed into a corner, fucked six ways to sunday.  His best chance at survival, and also the survival of any semblance of the NW btw but let's leave that for another day, was to do exactly what he did.  Which is to galvanize an army by telling the truth.  You wanna whine about him betraying his vows?  Fine, whatever.  But don't tell me it was a stupid decision politically.  Because it plainly was the smartest political decision to, ya know, become the leader of an army simply by reading a letter.  If you have a problem with that in terms of a political maneuver, you simply don't understand politics.  Plus that's why Martin wrote it that way, and that's why narratively he likely will have the chance to be resurrected.

[Lady Topspin]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

Once he got the pink letter he was backed into a corner, fucked six ways to sunday.  His best chance at survival, and also the survival of any semblance of the NW btw but let's leave that for another day, was to do exactly what he did.  Which is to galvanize an army by telling the truth.  You wanna whine about him betraying his vows?  Fine, whatever.  But don't tell me it was a stupid decision politically.  Because it plainly was the smartest political decision to, ya know, become the leader of an army simply by reading a letter.  If you have a problem with that in terms of a political maneuver, you simply don't understand politics.  Plus that's why Martin wrote it that way, and that's why narratively he likely will have the chance to be resurrected.

The problem is, Jon should never have started that feud with the Boltons.  There would have been no pink letter if Jon had kept to his duties instead of messing with Ramsay.  It was all Jon's fault.  

[broken one]

1 minute ago, Gabbie Roxas said:

The problem is, Jon should never have started that feud with the Boltons.  There would have been no pink letter if Jon had kept to his duties instead of messing with Ramsay.  It was all Jon's fault.  

As far as I remember Lannisters do not give a damn about NW's problems and defence of the Wall and even plan to remove Jon (what would eventually weaken NW). It is NW's best interest to help Stannis win (as he is in the place and renders substantial aid) and to smash Boltons (Lannisters' allies, who may try to eliminate Jon anyway). The only way to fulfill NW's mission is to piss on vows in this case.  Jon may not be aware of all the things, but that's a fact :-)

[DMC]

2 hours ago, Gabbie Roxas said:

The problem is, Jon should never have started that feud with the Boltons. 

You're right, if I thought my sister was under the control of reputable monsters that killed my mother and brother, I wouldn't have done anything either.  Because that's what's honorable.

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, DMC said:

You're right, if I thought my sister was under the control of reputable monsters that killed my mother and brother, I wouldn't have done anything either.  Because that's what's honorable.

Some of the arguments made by some here are un-fucking-believable. And it's either because people struggle to understand the text - in the novels but also in several interviews Martin has given over the years - or because "booo, I hate Jon Snow so I would rather come across as a Bolton fan w/ poor reading comprehension skill than engage in intelligent debate". 

Gotta say though, once you get past the annoyance and frustration, you can have a few good laughs. 

[DMC]

Just now, kissdbyfire said:

Gotta say though, once you get past the annoyance and frustration, you have have a few good laughs. 

Cheers to that.

[Moiraine Sedai]

Hard home was a dumb and irresponsible decision because the chance of success was low.  All of the men sent on this mission can come back to haunt them. 

[kissdbyfire]

Yes, because one must make decisions based on the chances of succeeding, and never ever w/ the goal in mind to save as many human beings as possible. /s

[Lollygag]

56 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Hard home was a dumb and irresponsible decision because the chance of success was low.  All of the men sent on this mission can come back to haunt them. 

ADWD Jon VIII

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. "Cotter Pyke's galleys sail past Hardhome from time to time. He tells me there is no shelter there but the caves. The screaming caves, his men call them. Mother Mole and those who followed her will perish there, of cold and starvation. Hundreds of them. Thousands."

"Thousands of enemies. Thousands of wildlings."

Thousands of people, Jon thought. Men, women, children. Anger rose inside him, but when he spoke his voice was quiet and cold. "Are you so blind, or is it that you do not wish to see? What do you think will happen when all these enemies are dead?"

Above the door the raven muttered, "Dead, dead, dead."

"Let me tell you what will happen," Jon said. "The dead will rise again, in their hundreds and their thousands. They will rise as wights, with black hands and pale blue eyes, and they will come for us." He pushed himself to his feet, the fingers of his sword hand opening and closing. "You have my leave to go."

Septon Cellador rose grey-faced and sweating, Othell Yarwyck stiffly, Bowen Marsh tight-lipped and pale. "Thank you for your time, Lord Snow." They left without another word.

 

[Rose of Red Lake]

Well, Stannis is feuding with the Boltons too. 

As will most of the Starks in the future, unless folks think their storyline is about hiding forever and never returning to Winterfell. 

So yeah, it all would have come to a head at some point, Jon just did it in the most satisfying way possible. Because my thoughts were, YES steal his fake bride from him! HAHAHA he has no claim now!