Heresy 219 and a whisper of Winter

[Frey family reunion]

4 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

As to your first point that's precisely why I'm arguing that it was a formal, pre-arranged rencounter rather than the culmination of a military expedition.

As to the rest JNR and I are in agreement that Lyanna was't lying inside receiving a running commentary on the fight from whatever passed for the domestic staff, and that instead Lord Eddard went elsewhere [probably Starfall] to pick her up.

I’m in complete agreement that Lyanna wasn’t inside the tower of joy, and my guess was that she was never inside the tower of joy.  There is nothing about a tower that can be single handedly pulled down to create eight cairns located in a mountain pass which during wartime is mainly used for Dorne to have their army gather which is consistent with housing someone, especially a pregnant girl for any significant length of time.

But of course we have to answer the next logical question.  If Lyanna wasn’t in the tower of joy, why does Rhaegar refer to it as the tower of joy?  

I think the answer lies in what Rhaegar’s true passion was.  It’s evident that like Melisandre, Rhaegar seems very influenced by prophecy.  Specifically prophecies involving the Prince that was Promised, bleeding stars, and being reborn among salt and smoke.

Melisandre believes these prophecies are precursors to the coming fo the Long Night.  Aemon seems to agree with Melisandre on that point when he states that if the Battle for the Dawn is coming “where is the prince that was promised”.  In other words the Prince that was Promised in Aemon’s mind needs come about to fight the Battle for the Dawn.

If Aemon believes that, it seems a safe bet that Rheagar believed that as well.

I think we need to look at Rhaegar’s curious actions at Harrenhal and his alleged interest in Lyanna and her subsequent abduction through the lens of Rhaegar’s belief in prophecy.  In other words, like Melisandre, Rhaegar seems to be trying to steer events to meet his view of what needs to occur to fulfill the prophecy of the Prince that was Promised.

And it seems that the Prince that was Promised prophecy also involves dragons.  At least Aemon seems to believe that Dany may be the Princess that was Promised due to her dragons.  In fact he said that the dragons proved it.  

And couple that with the belief that the place that Rhaegar truly loved was Summerhall.  And the Summerhall tragedy specifically seems to be linked to this dream of dragons.

If Rhaegar and Melisandre may have been interpreting the same or similar prophecies, and if both Melisandre and Rhaegar seemed to think that dragons were an integral part of the prophecy, is it that much of a stretch to believe that both believed that the same type of sacrifice was needed to bring dragons back into existence?

So I wonder if perhaps, if Rhaegar named it the tower of joy, because he did anticipate a birth to occur there.  But perhaps he’s not referring to the birth of a human child, but instead the birth of a dragon, or dragons.  Or perhaps the tower of joy was where the prince that was promised prophecy was finally going to be fulfilled.

If this required a sacrifice or sacrifices of kingsblood, perhaps to include a child of Lyanna’s, then that may explain why Ned made a secret mission to the tower.  A mission that was made without Robert’s knowledge because it specifically dealt with rescuing Lyanna’s child a child she had with someone other than Robert.

 

[Brad Stark]

The common fan view is that the Kingsguard were at the Toj to protect Lyanna's son as a member of the royal family. 

I don't buy this, as the Kingsguard were there on Aerys's orders, and I don't see Aerys wanting to protect Rhaegar's son, at least not as much as Viserys or Aegon's family in King's Landing.  There was no war in Dorne so Lyanna would be much safer. 

Black Crow's view is that they agreed to duel at the Toj.  I don't buy this either.  Why would Ned agree to the duel?  He has nothing to gain if Lyanna is not in the tower. And why are the Kingsguard there?  Aerys certainly didn't ask them to wait at a remote tower a thousand miles away in case someone asks for a duel.

Ned was either there because of his sister or Ashara or both.  He fought because he felt he had to.  The Kingsguard were there on Aerys's orders, likely to do something that threatened Ned reaching Lyanna.  Unless there is a significant reason why, they were all at the Toj.  This is the simplest explanation and the story does not change if we say they were really somewhere else nearby.  GRRM is not going to give us a surprise twist that is trivially irrelevant. 

[alienarea]

If I were on a mission to rescue my sister I wouldn't care about honor and surely wouldn't agree to duel, but rather get precision archers and other specialists.

What is evident to me is that Ned must have known where to go ("someone always tells") and brought only trusted friends from the North. I assume he didn't want details of this mission to leave the North / spread in KL? Maybe he already learned that Lyanna was pregnant?

That brings me to the point of "Rhaegar raped Lyanna". When did this talk start and by whom? Ned could not foresee how his mission would end, if he knew Lyanna was pregnant this would have been a convenient explanation for a child. 

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

If I were on a mission to rescue my sister I wouldn't care about honor and surely wouldn't agree to duel, but rather get precision archers and other specialists.

What is evident to me is that Ned must have known where to go ("someone always tells") and brought only trusted friends from the North. I assume he didn't want details of this mission to leave the North / spread in KL? Maybe he already learned that Lyanna was pregnant?

That brings me to the point of "Rhaegar raped Lyanna". When did this talk start and by whom? Ned could not foresee how his mission would end, if he knew Lyanna was pregnant this would have been a convenient explanation for a child. 

I don't think that there's anything significant in the assumption by everyone from Trouserless Bob downwards that "Rhaegar raped Lyanna" . Abduction, whether dignified as Stealing a Wife or not has a pretty inevitable outcome. Once again though, as you say, whatever happened at the tower wasn't the culmination of a rescue mission. It was far too formal for that.

[alienarea]

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

I don't think that there's anything significant in the assumption by everyone from Trouserless Bob downwards that "Rhaegar raped Lyanna" . Abduction, whether dignified as Stealing a Wife or not has a pretty inevitable outcome. Once again though, as you say, whatever happened at the tower wasn't the culmination of a rescue mission. It was far too formal for that.

Taking into account GRRM's note that it is a dream and we should not take all of it literally, maybe the timeline is reversed?

Scenario:

- Ned learns that Lyanna is at Starfall, hurries there to pick her up with his comrades [that would explain why he picks his friends and not some elite SWAT team - he was not expecting an epic fight and knew where to go. And maybe he learned Lyanna was pregnant and picked his friends to not spread these news].

- Ned finds Lyanna at Starfall, but she's dying ... "promise me" [Ned could have ordered her bones to be prepared and send to Winterfell which would solve some questions]

- the 3 KG are somewhere around with their last order, whatever it is. They know the war is lost, but they will not surrender but chose to go down in a "blaze of glory"

- they agree to fight it out at the ToJ [Maybe with some agreement whoever wins buries the fallen ones there?]

[Brad Stark]

5 hours ago, alienarea said:

If I were on a mission to rescue my sister I wouldn't care about honor and surely wouldn't agree to duel, but rather get precision archers and other specialists.

What is even the point of that?  If Lyanna wasn't in the tower, Ned would just tell Arthur to take a hike, grab his sister and go home.  

[Mullocose]

I think the King's Guard Members @ the tower had recently completed a mission, possibly concerning Aegon, & needed to die fighting.

Otherwise they would have assumed that they would be tortured to death by Robert to learn what they had done with Aegon.

I think they had recently delivered him to Horn Hill.

[Janneyc1]

All of this speculation about Starfall and it's accessibility has given me the idea of how we learn about the events that unfolded. We know that Darkstar has supposedly fled to High Hermitage and that a party has been dispatched to kill him (Hotah, Obara, and Swann I think). My guess is that they won't be able to cross the mountains, and will go up the Prince's Pass and down the Torrentine to get to Darkstar. That journey takes them past the ToJ and that is where we could learn a lot about what happened there. 

[Melifeather]

44 minutes ago, Janneyc1 said:

All of this speculation about Starfall and it's accessibility has given me the idea of how we learn about the events that unfolded. We know that Darkstar has supposedly fled to High Hermitage and that a party has been dispatched to kill him (Hotah, Obara, and Swann I think). My guess is that they won't be able to cross the mountains, and will go up the Prince's Pass and down the Torrentine to get to Darkstar. That journey takes them past the ToJ and that is where we could learn a lot about what happened there. 

Arianne's plan was to take Myrcella to Hellholt to crown her. Hellholt is the seat of Ellaria Sand's father, Harman Uller. You can trace her route on The West map. From Sunspear they met at an abandoned holdfast (not on the map) called Shandystone. The plan was to take a poleboat down the Greenblood river to the Vaith river, get off at the town of Vaith, and finish the rest of the way overland to Hellholt. They didn't get very far, because they were ambushed on the banks of the Greenblood. If Darkstar's plans were to go all the way to High Hermitage, he has a very long journey. Since he left on horseback, what choice does he have? He either has to ride northwest along the Greenblood, or go southeast down to Lemonwood to catch a ship. No matter which route he takes, there's no route to High Hermitage that goes past the tower of joy in the Prince's Pass.

10 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

The common fan view is that the Kingsguard were at the Toj to protect Lyanna's son as a member of the royal family. 

I don't buy this, as the Kingsguard were there on Aerys's orders, and I don't see Aerys wanting to protect Rhaegar's son, at least not as much as Viserys or Aegon's family in King's Landing.  There was no war in Dorne so Lyanna would be much safer. 

Black Crow's view is that they agreed to duel at the Toj.  I don't buy this either.  Why would Ned agree to the duel?  He has nothing to gain if Lyanna is not in the tower. And why are the Kingsguard there?  Aerys certainly didn't ask them to wait at a remote tower a thousand miles away in case someone asks for a duel.

Ned was either there because of his sister or Ashara or both.  He fought because he felt he had to.  The Kingsguard were there on Aerys's orders, likely to do something that threatened Ned reaching Lyanna.  Unless there is a significant reason why, they were all at the Toj.  This is the simplest explanation and the story does not change if we say they were really somewhere else nearby.  GRRM is not going to give us a surprise twist that is trivially irrelevant. 

You raise some really good points. The Kingsguard would be under Aery's orders. Would Aerys have allowed three of his Kingsguard to leave with Rhaegar when he hit the road at the beginning of the new year? Anyone that believes the Kingsguard were south of Kings Landing in the Prince's Pass needs to explain how and when they left - and why. 

Rhaegar returned sometime after the Battle of the Bells. Were any of the Kingsguard with him then? Did all three remain "down south"? Surely Aerys would have asked where his Kingsguard were when they didn't return with Rhaegar. King Aerys was already very suspicious of Rhaegar by the tourney. He's not going to release any of his Kingsguard - let alone three of them - to help Rhaegar. 

Prior to the Battle of the Bells there would be no reason for the Kingsguard to flee Kings Landing. When Rhaegar was killed on the Trident, Aerys shipped Rhaella and Viserys to Dragonstone for safety, but everyone else was kept prisoner, so when did the Kingsguard leave?

I'd be interested in hearing everyone's explanations for when they left and why.

[redriver]

Sad to see heresy has turned into RLJ 2.I would say enough internet space has been wasted on this already.

R+L=J

Simple as.

[Janneyc1]

55 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Arianne's plan was to take Myrcella to Hellholt to crown her. Hellholt is the seat of Ellaria Sand's father, Harman Uller. You can trace her route on The West map. From Sunspear they met at an abandoned holdfast (not on the map) called Shandystone. The plan was to take a poleboat down the Greenblood river to the Vaith river, get off at the town of Vaith, and finish the rest of the way overland to Hellholt. They didn't get very far, because they were ambushed on the banks of the Greenblood. If Darkstar's plans were to go all the way to High Hermitage, he has a very long journey. Since he left on horseback, what choice does he have? He either has to ride northwest along the Greenblood, or go southeast down to Lemonwood to catch a ship. No matter which route he takes, there's no route to High Hermitage that goes past the tower of joy in the Prince's Pass.

I am of the suspicion that Darkstar knew about the ambush on the Greenblood. Yes he has a long way to go, but Doran plans out long. It also adds a factor for the fight that is about to ensue. The hunting party will need to cross all that distance, giving Darkstar time to rest and plan. Looking at that map, the distance is long, but doable. between 1/3 and 1/2 of that journey could be taken following the Greenblood, then following the Scourge. At that point, you have to cross the desert. The distance from the end of the Scourge to the Yronwood mountains is about the same as the distance from Vaith to Hellholt. While the journey won't be easy, it's doable. 

 Plus Martin will need to give us some resolution about the ToJ and cap off the Dorne arc. By tying them together, he kills two birds with one stone. 

55 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

You raise some really good points. The Kingsguard would be under Aery's orders. Would Aerys have allowed three of his Kingsguard to leave with Rhaegar when he hit the road at the beginning of the new year? Anyone that believes the Kingsguard were south of Kings Landing in the Prince's Pass needs to explain how and when they left - and why. 

Rhaegar returned sometime after the Battle of the Bells. Were any of the Kingsguard with him then? Did all three remain "down south"? Surely Aerys would have asked where his Kingsguard were when they didn't return with Rhaegar. King Aerys was already very suspicious of Rhaegar by the tourney. He's not going to release any of his Kingsguard - let alone three of them - to help Rhaegar. 

Prior to the Battle of the Bells there would be no reason for the Kingsguard to flee Kings Landing. When Rhaegar was killed on the Trident, Aerys shipped Rhaella and Viserys to Dragonstone for safety, but everyone else was kept prisoner, so when did the Kingsguard leave?

I'd be interested in hearing everyone's explanations for when they left and why.

I only have a scenario in my head: Looking into the three Kingsguard, we have Arthur Dayne, Gerold Hightower, and Whathisface Whent. The Tourney at Harrenhall was held by the Whents, so I would be very reluctant to let him go after Rhaeghar. Gerold hightower is the Lord Commander, he had no business running errands for the king and was dispatched to find Rhaeghar after the War started. And finally AD, seemingly Rhaeghar's best friend. 

Why would anyone in their right mind pick these three to go after Rhaeghar? Two of the three are his friends and the third is the Lord Commander. We know that Hightower was dispatched to find Rhaeghar, but we do not know the orders for the other two. My guess is that Hightower asked for two extra men, as he likely had to travel through the Stormlands, which were rebelling. One thing that those three have in common is an understanding of magic, and an understanding of what was to come. If Rhaeghar walked them through why he did what he did, he may have caused them to defect. 

[SirArthur]

19 minutes ago, redriver said:

Sad to see heresy has turned into RLJ 2.I would say enough internet space has been wasted on this already.

R+L=J

Simple as.

And would you, in your wisdom, explain which version of RLJ is the simple one. Because RLJ can mean a lot of different things to a lot of different people. It is stated as "Jon is most likely the son of R+L" but most things discussed within the theory have nothing to do with this simplistic approach. 

Like our tower of joy discussion. RLJ can be true and yet have nothing to do with the TOJ at all. So what is your point if I may ask ?

[Melifeather]

20 minutes ago, Janneyc1 said:

I am of the suspicion that Darkstar knew about the ambush on the Greenblood. Yes he has a long way to go, but Doran plans out long. It also adds a factor for the fight that is about to ensue. The hunting party will need to cross all that distance, giving Darkstar time to rest and plan.

You do realize that the only reason why Darkstar attacked Myrcella was because they were ambushed? Darkstar was on board, because he wanted war between Dorne and the crown/Lannisters. They all knew by crowning Myrcella that war would break out, which is what everybody in Dorne wants, because they want to avenge Elia and her children. So when they were ambushed and their plot to crown her failed, he did the only other thing that could start a war - kill Myrcella.

20 minutes ago, Janneyc1 said:

We know that Hightower was dispatched to find Rhaeghar,

Everybody always says this, but I don't believe there's anything in the text to support it. Am I wrong? Can you help by supplying the text?

20 minutes ago, Janneyc1 said:

My guess is that Hightower asked for two extra men, as he likely had to travel through the Stormlands, which were rebelling.

Storms End was under siege by the Tyrell's army, so quite safe for any loyalists.

32 minutes ago, redriver said:

Sad to see heresy has turned into RLJ 2.I would say enough internet space has been wasted on this already.

R+L=J

Simple as.

As far as I'm concerned, Heresy is the only place where we can really examine the evidence with a critical eye.

[redriver]

2 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

And would you, in your wisdom, explain which version of RLJ is the simple one. Because RLJ can mean a lot of different things to a lot of different people. It is stated as "Jon is most likely the son of R+L" but most things discussed within the theory have nothing to do with this simplistic approach. 

Like our tower of joy discussion. RLJ can be true and yet have nothing to do with the TOJ at all. So what is your point if I may ask ?

My point is that there is already a long running thread dedicated to this subject where,whether yay or nay,you can discuss the nuances of this subject ad fucking nauseam.

So why has it taken over here?

[redriver]

4 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

As far as I'm concerned, Heresy is the only place where we can really examine the evidence with a critical eye.

Well if y'all wanna waste your time,carry on!

[SirArthur]

18 minutes ago, redriver said:

My point is that there is already a long running thread dedicated to this subject where,whether yay or nay,you can discuss the nuances of this subject ad fucking nauseam.

So why has it taken over here?

We are not discussing RLJ, we are discussing the tower of joy and it's connections to the north. For some people the topic of RLJ and TOJ may be the same, they are not.

e.g. as far as I know Lady Dustin and the red stallion play no role in RLJ. 

[Janneyc1]

9 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

You do realize that the only reason why Darkstar attacked Myrcella was because they were ambushed? Darkstar was on board, because he wanted war between Dorne and the crown/Lannisters. They all knew by crowning Myrcella that war would break out, which is what everybody in Dorne wants, because they want to avenge Elia and her children. So when they were ambushed and their plot to crown her failed, he did the only other thing that could start a war - kill Myrcella.

We actually don't see who hurt Myrcella. Plus there is speculation that the Myrcella we see is her body-double Rosamund. anyways, her is the quote for when she is attacked:

Quote

Arianne did not remember climbing from her horse. Perhaps she'd fallen. She did not remember that either. Yet she found herself on her hands and feet in the sand, shaking and sobbing and retching up her supper. No, was all that she could think, no, no one was to be hurt, it was all planned, I was so careful. She heard Areo Hotah roar, "After him. He must not escape. After him!" Myrcella was on the ground, wailing, shaking, her pale face in her hands, blood streaming through her fingers. Arianne did not understand. Men were scrambling onto horses whilst others swarmed over her and her companions, but none of it made sense. She had fallen into a dream, some terrible red nightmare. This cannot be real. I will wake soon, and laugh at my night terrors.

Afterwards, it is speculated that Darkstar did the deed, but we all we see is that she has been hurt. there is plenty of misdirects in this series. Even if it was Darkstar, he could still have been working on orders from Doran. Without more info, we have no way of proving or disproving it. 

9 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

29 minutes ago, Janneyc1 said:

We know that Hightower was dispatched to find Rhaeghar,

Everybody always says this, but I don't believe there's anything in the text to support it. Am I wrong? Can you help by supplying the text?

Huh. guess group think isn't reliable. I couldn't find it in the search. You can make some speculation, given Hightower's loyalty to Aerys, etc. but it isn't explicitly called out. 

[Melifeather]

9 minutes ago, Janneyc1 said:

Afterwards, it is speculated that Darkstar did the deed, but we all we see is that she has been hurt. there is plenty of misdirects in this series. Even if it was Darkstar, he could still have been working on orders from Doran. Without more info, we have no way of proving or disproving it. 

The very last thing Doran wants is for Myrcella to be injured. He's trying to prevent a war! 

It is very heavily implied that Darkstar tried to kill Myrcella. From Feast, the Queenmaker:

Quote

 

“How was your piss?” Arianne inquired archly.

“The sands were duly grateful.” Dayne put a foot upon the head of a statue that might have been the Maiden till the sands had scoured her face away. “It occurred to me as I was pissing that this plan of yours may not yield you what you want.”

“And what is it I want, ser?”

“The Sand Snakes freed. Vengeance for Oberyn and Elia. Do I know the song? You want a little taste of lion blood.”

That, and my birthright. I want Sunspear, and my father’s seat. I want Dorne. “I want justice.”

“Call it what you will. Crowning the Lannister girl is a hollow gesture. She will never sit the Iron Throne. Nor will you get the war you want. The lion is not so easily provoked.”

“The lion’s dead. Who knows which cub the lioness prefers?”

“The one in her own den.” Ser Gerold drew his sword. It glimmered in the starlight, sharp as lies. “This is how you start a war. Not with a crown of gold, but with a blade of steel.”

I am no murderer of children. “Put that away. Myrcella is under my protection. And Ser Arys will permit no harm to come to his precious princess, you know that.”

 

 

Garin and Drey put their weapons down:

Quote

Princess Myrcella sat motionless upon her mount. Garin backed slowly from the poleboat, his hands in the air. Drey unbuckled his swordbelt. “Yielding seems the wisest course,” he called to Arianne, as his sword thumped to the ground.

That leaves Arianne, Spotted Sylva, and Darkstar - Arys rushed forward to meet Areo Hotah and he would not have raised his sword towards Myrcella. Arianne was too stunned and would never have harmed Myrcella, so now we're down to Spotted Sylva and Darkstar, and somehow I don't see Spotted Sylva doing it.

 

[Janneyc1]

6 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

he very last thing Doran wants is for Myrcella to be injured. He's trying to prevent a war! 

It is very heavily implied that Darkstar tried to kill Myrcella. From Feast, the Queenmaker:

He also wants to make the Lannisters suffer. Even after this, he is still maneuvering to harm the Lannisters, while still staying out of a war. In my opinion, Darkstar works for Doran, as a sort of wet works person. We have no idea why Darkstar wants a war, just that he does. Plus we need to remember that he is was supposedly trying to kill a little girl on a horse. Even if the horse shied away, he likely had time for a second slash. No, I think that he intended to maim Myrcella, In other words, why on Earth would Darkstar want a war, why not finish killing Myrcella, and why run to High Hermitage? Just my read on the situation. 

Anyways, back onto why I think we will get some ToJ info is that in order to get to High Hermitage, you either need to come from Starfall or down from the Prince's Pass. Both locations play a role in the ToJ discussions and we now have PoV's that will likely see one of those places. 

[alienarea]

1 hour ago, redriver said:

Sad to see heresy has turned into RLJ 2.I would say enough internet space has been wasted on this already.

R+L=J

Simple as.

Robert + Lysa = Jorjen :P