Heresy 219 and a whisper of Winter

[alienarea]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

We are not discussing RLJ, we are discussing the tower of joy and it's connections to the north. For some people the topic of RLJ and TOJ may be the same, they are not.

e.g. as far as I know Lady Dustin and the red stallion play no role in RLJ. 

Or maybe R + L = J means

Red Stallion + Lady Barbrey = Jon

[Melifeather]

47 minutes ago, Janneyc1 said:

He also wants to make the Lannisters suffer. Even after this, he is still maneuvering to harm the Lannisters, while still staying out of a war. In my opinion, Darkstar works for Doran, as a sort of wet works person. We have no idea why Darkstar wants a war, just that he does. Plus we need to remember that he is was supposedly trying to kill a little girl on a horse. Even if the horse shied away, he likely had time for a second slash. No, I think that he intended to maim Myrcella, In other words, why on Earth would Darkstar want a war, why not finish killing Myrcella, and why run to High Hermitage? Just my read on the situation. 

Anyways, back onto why I think we will get some ToJ info is that in order to get to High Hermitage, you either need to come from Starfall or down from the Prince's Pass. Both locations play a role in the ToJ discussions and we now have PoV's that will likely see one of those places. 

Doran is a very cautious man. His subjects are upset with him, because he hasn't declared war. That is why they throw fruit at him upon his arrival to Sunspear. The gout that he suffers from is an outward physical sign of his inverted parallel to Tywin's hidden simmering anger. The overripe blood oranges that are dropping in the Captain of Guards chapter is symbolic of Doran's hesitation to act. He's waited too long to make his move that his plans are over ripe and past due. Doran did work for years with Oberyn trying to circumnavigate Tywin Lannister's plans by working behind the scenes to make marriage alliances for Arianne and Quentyn with Viserys and Daenerys, sending Oberyn to Dragonstone to negotiate with Willem Darry. But just as poison is considered a weapon of the weak, Doran never openly defied Tywin. Everything was done in secret. If Doran truly wanted war, all he had to do was crown Myrcella himself. It makes no sense for Doran to frustrate Arianne's plans if war is what he wanted. Doran also honors "guest right", so he would never kill Myrcella, but allow Ser Balon Swann to live when the plot to kill Trystane is revealed.

[Azor Azai]

On 3/18/2019 at 1:27 PM, Feather Crystal said:

 

Returning to Lady Barbary's mind set on her dead husband...she apparently didn't want to honor her husband by leaving his remains buried where he was slain. She wanted his remains back. Could her deep feelings on the subject be fueled by something else? Was she dismayed that he even left to fight in the first place? Maybe she never supported the Rebellion? Maybe she knows something that the reader doesn't? 

 

I am of the opinion that she knows that Lord Dustin isn't dead. Why else wouldn't she be forced to marry? Lady Hornwood, prior to being forced to marry Ramsey, was being shopped around to Northern lords; so I ask, why was Lady Dustin allowed to be unmarried for so long? 

[Melifeather]

When Tyrion sent Myrcella to Dorne, didn't Doran send any hostages to Kings Landing? After Myrcella's injury he sent Nymeria to fill Dorne's position on the Small Council. Cersei had "invited" Tystane, but she really wanted him killed and blame it on Tyrion.

[Black Crow]

15 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

The common fan view is that the Kingsguard were at the Toj to protect Lyanna's son as a member of the royal family. 

I don't buy this, as the Kingsguard were there on Aerys's orders...

A popular interpretation but actually its probably not true.

Lord Eddard says he expected them at the Trident, at King's Landing or at Storm's End, but they weren't there.

Curiously, they don't respond that it was because they were "here", ie; at the tower, but instead they were "far away". The two are not one and the same. Wherever they were, "far away" is not where they are when they are speaking.

[Melifeather]

2 minutes ago, Azor Azai said:

I am of the opinion that she knows that Lord Dustin isn't dead. Why else wouldn't she be forced to marry? Lady Hornwood, prior to being forced to marry Ramsey, was being shopped around to Northern lords; so I ask, why was Lady Dustin allowed to be unmarried for so long? 

I too have wondered why Lady Barbary wasn't forced to remarry, but I don't think it's because Lord Dustin is still alive. For some odd reason she has a good relationship with Roose and I think he offers her some protection.

[Brad Stark]

3 hours ago, Janneyc1 said:

I am of the suspicion that Darkstar knew about the ambush on the Greenblood. Yes he has a long way to go, but Doran plans out long. It also adds a factor for the fight that is about to ensue. The hunting party will need to cross all that distance, giving Darkstar time to rest and plan. Looking at that map, the distance is long, but doable. between 1/3 and 1/2 of that journey could be taken following the Greenblood, then following the Scourge. At that point, you have to cross the desert. The distance from the end of the Scourge to the Yronwood mountains is about the same as the distance from Vaith to Hellholt. While the journey won't be easy, it's doable. 

 Plus Martin will need to give us some resolution about the ToJ and cap off the Dorne arc. By tying them together, he kills two birds with one stone. 

I only have a scenario in my head: Looking into the three Kingsguard, we have Arthur Dayne, Gerold Hightower, and Whathisface Whent. The Tourney at Harrenhall was held by the Whents, so I would be very reluctant to let him go after Rhaeghar. Gerold hightower is the Lord Commander, he had no business running errands for the king and was dispatched to find Rhaeghar after the War started. And finally AD, seemingly Rhaeghar's best friend. 

Why would anyone in their right mind pick these three to go after Rhaeghar? Two of the three are his friends and the third is the Lord Commander. We know that Hightower was dispatched to find Rhaeghar, but we do not know the orders for the other two. My guess is that Hightower asked for two extra men, as he likely had to travel through the Stormlands, which were rebelling. One thing that those three have in common is an understanding of magic, and an understanding of what was to come. If Rhaeghar walked them through why he did what he did, he may have caused them to defect. 

Hightower was not looking for Rhaegar after he died on the Trident. Timing matters. 

So knew about the rebellion, chose to avoid it, and these 3 show up and say or do something to convince him to go fight on the trident.  The 3 stay for some reason while Rhaegar goes off to die.  Ned shows up a lot later, so what were they doing in the mean while? 

[Melifeather]

8 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

A popular interpretation but actually its probably not true.

Lord Eddard says he expected them at the Trident, at King's Landing or at Storm's End, but they weren't there.

Curiously, they don't respond that it was because they were "here", ie; at the tower, but instead they were "far away". The two are not one and the same. Wherever they were, "far away" is not where they are when they are speaking.

 

Technically, Ned didn't say he looked for the Kingsguard in Kings Landing. He just said he wondered where they were when Jaime killed the king.

The Red Keep has seven massive drum towers. The Great Hall with the throne room and the Tower of the Hand are just two of them. The Great Hall is large enough to feast a thousand people. It's second only to Harrenhal's Great Hall in size. Maegor's Holdfast is square-shaped tower that holds the royal apartments and is located at the heart of the Red Keep. It has massive twelve-foot thick walls, a moat, and a drawbridge with stairs that lead up to the drawbridge. In a compound this large, if the Kingsguard were guarding Maegor's Holdfast during the Sack, they certainly were far and away from the throne room.

 

Quote

 

“When King’s Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were. ”

“Far away,” Ser Gerold said, “or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells. ”

 

 

 

[Brad Stark]

34 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

A popular interpretation but actually its probably not true.

Lord Eddard says he expected them at the Trident, at King's Landing or at Storm's End, but they weren't there.

Curiously, they don't respond that it was because they were "here", ie; at the tower, but instead they were "far away". The two are not one and the same. Wherever they were, "far away" is not where they are when they are speaking.

Most likely, they were doing something.  Not just standing around as Lyanna's personal body guards for months.  This means they moved around and were not 'nailed to the floor' any more than Ashara.  This does not mean they were not ever at the tower, it just refutes the unlikely scenario that they were in the tower the entire time. 

[Brad Stark]

We also the popular notion of Rhaegar dying for the women he loves, thought to be Lyanna. 

But this does not fit.  If Rhaegar died fighting Arthur at the Toj to protect Lyanna, it fits.  But he died thousands of miles away fighting his cousin who had a thing for Lyanna but wasn't an immediate threat to her. 

If Rhaegar primarily cared about Lyanna, why not stay with her in Dorne?  Instead of dying for a woman (Lyanna or another woman) he loved, he apparently died for a father he hated. 

[Melifeather]

42 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

We also the popular notion of Rhaegar dying for the women he loves, thought to be Lyanna. 

But this does not fit.  If Rhaegar died fighting Arthur at the Toj to protect Lyanna, it fits.  But he died thousands of miles away fighting his cousin who had a thing for Lyanna but wasn't an immediate threat to her. 

If Rhaegar primarily cared about Lyanna, why not stay with her in Dorne?  Instead of dying for a woman (Lyanna or another woman) he loved, he apparently died for a father he hated. 

Well, I think Rhaegar went to the Trident thinking he could straighten out a misunderstanding. For shits and giggles lets try to imagine Rhaegar's movements as if he were plotting to overthrow his father.

1) He goes to Harrenhal to gauge and gather support. Actually, we need to back up a bit and question who has backed this tourney? Surely this wasn't all Lord Whent's idea?

2) Leaves after the tourney to attend Aegon's birth on Dragonstone.

3) After Elia has recovered they all travel to Dorne to request 10,000 Dornish to protect Elia while he tries to force his father off the throne. He may have swapped his heir for the Pisswater Prince in anticipation of the coming struggle with his father. Actually, the reason why Aerys took Elia hostage in the first place was because he thought the 10,000 Dornish were coming specifically to overthrow him.

4) Leaves Dorne after hearing about the Battle of the Bells. The rebelling factions have just now become a confusing and serious threat over a missing girl.

5) Rhaegar encourages his father to send a raven to Tywin. He must have had some confidence that Tywin was still his friend.

6) After assembling a few men, Rhaegar leaves Kings Landing without waiting for his 10,000 Dornish. Why would he do that? Wouldn't it be more prudent to wait for 10,000 soldiers? The soldiers were supposed to defend Elia during the coup, but rather than wait for them to arrive he leaves Kings Landing for the Trident to try and sort out the confusion. He tells Jaime things will change when he returns. I think Rhaegar thought he could stop the fighting and bring all the armies back to force Aerys off the throne without further bloodshed.

7) Another thing to consider is why did the Rebel army assemble and wait at the Trident? After the Battle of the Bells they could have kept marching towards Kings Landing, but they didn't. They retreated and waited. If you look at the map (again) Stoney Sept is way south of the Ruby fork of the Trident. It's actually at the west end of the Blackwater river. Assembling at the Trident would be a heck of a retreat for a conquering army, which makes me suspect that the Trident was actually a prearranged meeting place - for the houses that wanted to help Rhaegar force Aerys from the throne.

[Brad Stark]

What misunderstanding?  Aerys asked for Robert and Ned's heads, presumably no longer attached to their bodies.  Did Rhaegar think they'd surrender if he just asked nicely? 

[Melifeather]

25 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

What misunderstanding?  Aerys asked for Robert and Ned's heads, presumably no longer attached to their bodies.  Did Rhaegar think they'd surrender if he just asked nicely? 

I’m going off the assumption that Rhaegar plotted a coup. Aerys demanded the executions - not Rhaegar. The executions were just more proof that Aerys had to go. What if Rhaegar thought he was on the same side as the rebels?

[Brad Stark]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

I’m going off the assumption that Rhaegar plotted a coup. Aerys demanded the executions - not Rhaegar. The executions were just more proof that Aerys had to go. What if Rhaegar thought he was on the same side as the rebels?

So Rhaegar rode ahead on the Trident to offer Robert the crown on condition he keeps Lyanna?  And Robert turned him down.  In theory, that fits Rhaegar dying for the women he loved.  

[Melifeather]

24 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

So Rhaegar rode ahead on the Trident to offer Robert the crown on condition he keeps Lyanna?  And Robert turned him down.  In theory, that fits Rhaegar dying for the women he loved.  

No, not at all. Rhaegar wanted the throne. Rhaegar wasn’t sure why Robert wanted to kill him. “Lyanna” would be more of a confused question, like what are you talking about? 

[Brad Stark]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

No, not at all. Rhaegar wanted the throne. Rhaegar wasn’t sure why Robert wanted to kill him. “Lyanna” would be more of a confused question, like what are you talking about? 

There has to be a woman involved for Rhaegar to die for the woman he loved - it doesn't need to be Lyanna, I suppose it could be someone else.

If the only thing he offered Robert and Ned was a pardon, then at this point, then he died of stupidity.

If Rhaegar wasn't sure why Robert wanted to kill him, staying away from Robert seems the obvious answer.  I don't think we know why Robert wanted to kill Rhaegar.  Conventional theory is it was over Lyanna, but Robert's hatred extended to all the Targaryens, including Rhaegar's children, who obviously could not have had anything to do with Lyanna.

[JNR]

On 3/18/2019 at 12:13 PM, Matthew. said:

However, I see the significance as an open question--are we meant to use her words to find an interpretation of the ToJ that does fit with the idea of Eddard's reputation, or should we read Eddard as more flawed and more human than his reputation? Is she highlighting an incongruity, or adding nuance?

Both, IMO.

That he would bother returning the horse 1200+ miles shows his true character, which aligns well with virtutally everything else we know of him.  His thinking there seems to be that if something belongs to someone else, and you have good reason to believe they want it, you return it, even if it requires extraordinary effort.

And there really can't be any doubt that Lady Dustin wanted her husband's remains. I can't persuade myself Ned would ever have been confused on that point.  (She sure doesn't seem to think he was confused.)

The anomaly gets even more obvious in Dayne's case.  From the TOJ to Starfall was a distance of perhaps 10-15% the distance to Winterfell, and Ned's admiration for Dayne was personal and deep. 

But despite the dramatically lower effort required, compared to Lyanna's situation, Ned just didn't bother? I dunno...

On 3/18/2019 at 12:13 PM, Matthew. said:

it may be that giving the warriors an 'honorable burial' while only moving his sister was his best attempt at doing the right thing

I don't see how that could be his best attempt if he was able to return Lyanna's remains, starting from the same location, roughly ten times the distance as to Starfall.

If he wasn't in fact starting from the same location, of course, all bets are off.  Silent sisters would make all the difference in the world if they were nearby when Lyanna died.

[JNR]

On 3/18/2019 at 12:27 PM, Feather Crystal said:

Are you saying Ned heard her screaming from Starfall all the way up in the Princes Pass, screamed her vocal chords raw until she could barely whisper by the time he arrived?

It puzzles me why you would ask that.  Here's how it works.

If someone -- say, David Benioff, or any typical RLJ believer -- thinks she was at the TOJ because of the dream, which is the nearly universal belief among ASOIAF fans, then they also think she was healthy enough to scream when Ned found her there. 

Because her screaming is right in the dream.

But we know factually she wasn't healthy enough to scream when she died.  Because Ned's waking memory is of her voice being faint as a whisper because "the fever had robbed her strength."

So Benioff, or the RLJ believer, cannot logically imagine she died immediately at the TOJ.  It's a flat contradiction. That person should have to realize one of these alternatives is true:

1) Considerable time passed at the TOJ after Ned found her, in which she became so ill she could barely even speak... and then she died, per Ned's memory, at the TOJ; or

2) She was found at the TOJ healthy enough to scream, and moved somewhere else, and in that time she became so ill she could barely even speak, and died, and that death did not happen at the TOJ.  It happened somewhere fresh roses were available, hence that room smelling of roses.

I think option 2), assuming Ned found her at an isolated tower in Dorne, is more likely for various reasons.  For one thing, if I were Ned and I found her in such a place, and she was healthy enough to be screaming, I would probably not assume my beloved sister was going to die, even if she were in bad shape somehow (a thing the dream, btw, never even implies).  I would try to move her somewhere with better medical care.

Now, as I recall you don't think the TOJ was even in Dorne, or that Ned found her in Dorne, so none of the above is going to matter to you.  But it is a significant issue for 95% of the fans to have to deal with.

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

There has to be a woman involved for Rhaegar to die for the woman he loved - it doesn't need to be Lyanna, I suppose it could be someone else.

If the only thing he offered Robert and Ned was a pardon, then at this point, then he died of stupidity.

If Rhaegar wasn't sure why Robert wanted to kill him, staying away from Robert seems the obvious answer.  I don't think we know why Robert wanted to kill Rhaegar.  Conventional theory is it was over Lyanna, but Robert's hatred extended to all the Targaryens, including Rhaegar's children, who obviously could not have had anything to do with Lyanna.

I’m not sure you’re getting what I am proposing. Let’s start from the beginning - the Harrenhal tourney - and let’s assume it was a cover to gather support for Rhaegar to overthrow his father. Wouldn’t houses Stark, Arryn, and Baratheon be  counted as Rhaegar supporters? 

After gathering and counting his supporters, Rhaegar leaves to carry out his personal preparations. A plan would have been worked out prior to his departure, and I’m presuming part of the plan would be for the northern houses to gather their armies and wait for Rhaegar at the Trident. If that was the plan, then Rhaegar would be confused when the rebel force turned out to be against him.

[JNR]

On 3/18/2019 at 3:22 PM, Frey family reunion said:

But why would Ned have moved her to Starfall of all places?

To answer that, I have to know what you picture him finding at the TOJ when the fight's over.

On 3/18/2019 at 3:22 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I think if Lyanna was at Starfall ( and I suspect she was) then she was brought there by either Rhaegar and/or his kingsguards.

That could be the case!  We can easily conjure scenarios that involve that too, because that would have been quite a bit earlier than when Ned found her.

However, if she was there, perhaps she was moved north after the war, going up the Prince's Pass.

And if Ned encountered the KG because he knew their route, having been notified by someone who liked him and was well aware he wanted to find his sister, well... the rest we can guess.

On 3/18/2019 at 3:22 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Why is GRRM cautioning not to take Ned’s dream too literally?

Because it's just a dream and it's loaded with surrealism.  Of course we shouldn't do that.

There is no way to know which parts involving Lyanna are real and which are not.  I can only guess she was there... not assert it as fact.  I think I've been clear about that.

We do know however that if one believes in that aspect of the dream, her presence at the TOJ, then one cannot believe Lyanna immediately died on being found, because of the radical change in her voice and Ned's waking recollection that that was due to her physical condition getting worse.