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Arthur Peres

How much loyalty or influence does Mace Tyrell hold over his vassal lords?

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20 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Yes I do remember Stannis claiming Mace took the credit but Mace himself never claims such a thing and every noble who mentions RR or the battle of Ashford ALWAYS gives lord Tarly his credit and not Mace. 

Only thing Mace is known for is holding SE under siege and being kind of an idiot. 

 

 

I wonder if Olenna plays up the idiot role to make him seem less threatening...

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11 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

Of Course, the biggest problem with this argument is that Mace is married to a Hightower and the Lord of the Hightower is the maternal grandfather to Lord Mace's children. 

Lord Fossoway(Green) is married to Mace's sister. Garlan is also married to a Fossoway, not sure from which branch. Mace is half Redwyne and his sister is married to their lord and has 3 children including his heir. 
A Redwyne(possibly Olenna's niece) is married to lord Rowan as well. 

 

So the Tyrells should have the backing of the biggest army and biggest fleet in the Reach.

If the Tyrells actually get usurped, it honestly wouldnt make sense. 

 

The Fossoway already have turned against the Tyrells once. Just because they have a marriage alliance, does not mean it will hold up.

Lord Stannis himself was still on the march, but his vanguard had appeared two nights ago during the black of the moon. King’s Landing had woken to the sight of their tents and banners. They were five thousand, Sansa had heard, near as many as all the gold cloaks in the city. They flew the red or green apples of House Fossoway

The Hightowers are offering their protection to Alekyne Florent, even thought Garlan is reading a army to take his land.

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1 hour ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

I wonder if Olenna plays up the idiot role to make him seem less threatening...

... Or to be the person you trust more about intimate, dangerous or trusting matters and who is somit the more powerful of both.

... Or they play the the-more-they-think-youre-a-unpredictable-and-overreacting-person-the-more-they-fear-you-strategy 

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Posted (edited)
On 3/11/2019 at 12:12 PM, Arthur Peres said:

The Fossoway already have turned against the Tyrells once. Just because they have a marriage alliance, does not mean it will hold up.

Lord Stannis himself was still on the march, but his vanguard had appeared two nights ago during the black of the moon. King’s Landing had woken to the sight of their tents and banners. They were five thousand, Sansa had heard, near as many as all the gold cloaks in the city. They flew the red or green apples of House Fossoway

The Hightowers are offering their protection to Alekyne Florent, even thought Garlan is reading a army to take his land.

Not both branches of Fossoway , just one. 

 

And Alekyne is seeking refuge with his sister's House, which is reasonable. It doesnt mean the Hightowers would turn on the Tyrells which is actually what is being argued here. 

Every House mentioned in the post I responded to which are claimed to have the ability to be "disloyal" all have blood ties to not only the Tyrells as a whole, but to the Lord himself.

Edited by dsjj251

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I believe the Tyrells have had a pretty good hold of the Reach. 

 

However, the kingdoms as a whole have gone through a costly and prolonged period of time. The Reach is just beginning to taste this themselves. This plus the fact that the region is rich, populous, and full of powerful (and sometimes ambitious) nobles may set it up for conflict.

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2 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

Not both branches of Fossoway , just one. 

 

it was both

Ser Cortnay Penrose ignored him, preferring to address Stannis. “This is a notable company. The great lords Estermont, Errol, and Varner. Ser Jon of the green-apple Fossoways and Ser Bryan of the red. Lord Caron and Ser Guyard of King Renly’s Rainbow Guard . . . and the puissant Lord Alester Florent of Brightwater, to be sure. Is that your Onion Knight I spy to the rear? Well met, Ser Davos. I fear I do not know the lady.”

 

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1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

it was both

Ser Cortnay Penrose ignored him, preferring to address Stannis. “This is a notable company. The great lords Estermont, Errol, and Varner. Ser Jon of the green-apple Fossoways and Ser Bryan of the red. Lord Caron and Ser Guyard of King Renly’s Rainbow Guard . . . and the puissant Lord Alester Florent of Brightwater, to be sure. Is that your Onion Knight I spy to the rear? Well met, Ser Davos. I fear I do not know the lady.”

 

Fair enough. But do we know the timeline ? Did the Fossoways swear alliance to Stannis before or after the Tyrells aligned with Joffery ?

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, dsjj251 said:

Fair enough. But do we know the timeline ? Did the Fossoways swear alliance to Stannis before or after the Tyrells aligned with Joffery ?

 It was before the Tyrells join the Lannisters, but at this point the Tyrells already had made clear that they wouldn't join Stannis, Loras and Randyll had just retreat back with part of their force instead of stay and swear alligiance to Stannis.

Stannis later sends a mensager to the Tyrell camp and he got imprisoned, Tarly also killed any men that wanted to join Stannis, but the lords still stayed at Stannis's side.

Edited by Arthur Peres

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On 3/11/2019 at 1:56 AM, dsjj251 said:

Of Course, the biggest problem with this argument is that Mace is married to a Hightower and the Lord of the Hightower is the maternal grandfather to Lord Mace's children. 

Yes. But if Mace and his wife die...

Besides, I'm not talking about the Hightowers betraying the Tyrells. The Hightowers have their own problems, all of which are much more frightening than Aegon Targaryen and the Golden Company and only a little more frightening than the Faith Militant. Hell, considering that the second largest sept on the continent is in Oldtown, the Hightowers might very well have to deal with their own Faith Militant problem.

In any case, the Hightowers aren't going to betray the Tyrells. There's no need because the Hightowers are in very big trouble.

The same thing goes for the Redwynes. 

That's the problem with the Tyrells. All of their bannermen aren't going to betray them. The Tyrells have overextended themselves and their bannermen are paying for it in spades. It's only a matter of time.

  • if Mace loses against JonCon/Aegon even once, the Reach is in DEEP trouble.
  • if Arianne gives her father the signal and the Dornishmen sweep across the Prince's Pass and the Boneway, the Reach is in DEEP trouble. 
  • if Cersei doe something stupid and/or foul to the Reachmen soldiers in the city, the Reach is in DEEP trouble.
  • if the Faith Militant turns on the Reachmen in King's Landing, the Reach is in DEEP trouble.
  • If Euron gets into Oldtown, he's not going anywhere he doesn't want to go and the Reach's situation is in DEEP trouble.
On 3/11/2019 at 1:56 AM, dsjj251 said:

So the Tyrells should have the backing of the biggest army and biggest fleet in the Reach.

If the Tyrells actually get usurped, it honestly wouldnt make sense. 

 

There is literally no way the Redwyne fleet is going to survive this battle against Euron. The Hightowers still stand a good chance of winning but the Redwynes are doomed.

The Winds of Winter are going to have a lot of things happen that -- under normal circumstances -- wouldn't make sense.

On 3/10/2019 at 3:25 PM, Arthur Peres said:

The problem I have with this is that Randyll is so far the most loyal bannermen of the Tyrells.

He stayed at their side when Renly died, he was the one that killed the men willing to follow Stannis at the camp, he is present at blackwater, he follows his orders against the northerners at duskdale, he keeps the order at maidenpool and he is the first to return when he hears that Margaery is in trouble. Randyll also quickly demises young griffin as the real Aegon.

I think Mathis Rowan is more of a turn cloak than Tarly, as he shows being upset about the death of Rhaegar's children, and could be deceived to join Aegon.

I think Mathis Rowan will turn his back on the Tyrells too. But there is more of a buildup with Tarly than Rowan.

Randyll Tarly may be loyal but he is not a good person. That's part of the reason why Brienne's chapters will prove to be more important later on. Randyll Tarly saved Brienne on a few different occasions but that does not make him a friend of hers. As a matter of fact, it doesn't even make him a good person because his reasons for saving Brienne were not pure and altruistic. And then there is the whole thing with Sam...

Loyalty does not mean Randyll Tarly is a good man. Loyalty just means Randyll Tarly is a traditionalist.

On 3/10/2019 at 4:51 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I think the Hightowers are going to give him protection. He ate their salt and bread, which means he has guest right.

Yes because guest right is SOOOOOOOOO precious, important and respected these days.

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7 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Randyll Tarly may be loyal but he is not a good person. That's part of the reason why Brienne's chapters will prove to be more important later on. Randyll Tarly saved Brienne on a few different occasions but that does not make him a friend of hers. As a matter of fact, it doesn't even make him a good person because his reasons for saving Brienne were not pure and altruistic. And then there is the whole thing with Sam...

 Loyalty does not mean Randyll Tarly is a good man. Loyalty just means Randyll Tarly is a traditionalist.

I agree, but he had more than enough reasons to stab Mace in the back and haven't acted on it so far. 

If he came to change sides the Tyrells are screwed... he holds Margaery, her consins and the city. The only think they have against him is a sacred oath sweared by him... a guy that threatened  his own son about becoming kinslayer.

So yeah definitely not a good person by any means.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Yes because guest right is SOOOOOOOOO precious, important and respected these days.

The Freys breaking guest rights doesn't mean that every other house has to do or wants to do the same. If Leyton Hightower was intent on turning him over, he would have done so already. 

BTW, there's also House Crane that joined in with Stannis, but they're not really mentioned.

Edited by Alexis-something-Rose

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1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

BTW, there's also House Crane that joined in with Stannis, but they're not really mentioned.

When was that? In SoS we have Meredyth Crane a companion of Margaery.

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The Freys breaking guest rights doesn't mean that every other house has to do or wants to do the same. If Leyton Hightower was intent on turning him over, he would have done so already. 

 

I noticed that a uncle of Mace Ser Moryn is commander of theCity Watch of Oldtown. This could be important if the Hightower are respecting the guest right maybe the Tyrells could solve the problam of the Alkeyne existing themselves

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Karneol said:

When was that? In SoS we have Meredyth Crane a companion of Margaery.

I was thinking of Parmen Crane and how House Florent and Crane are intermarried, so they could be one of those houses who has members in both camps. I also read Caron and I thought I read Crane. 

House Varner and House Willum fought for Stannis at the Blackwater as well.

Quote

Fair enough. But do we know the timeline ? Did the Fossoways swear alliance to Stannis before or after the Tyrells aligned with Joffery ?

It would have come before. At the same time, these people from the Reach who threw their lot in with Renly had decided that they didn't want Joffrey as their king. They were willing to support a usurper to the throne. They literally skipped over Tommen and Stannis who had more claim to the throne than Renly.

They didn't know about Joffrey's bastardy before they threw their lot in with Renly, so why would they go back to Joffrey knowing what they know after Renly's death?

If anything, it shows that Mace who had no qualms supporting Renly and was willing to drag the Reach into war against the very king he ended up marrying his daughter to is the biggest opportunist around.

Edited by Alexis-something-Rose

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On 3/13/2019 at 7:55 AM, Arthur Peres said:

I agree, but he had more than enough reasons to stab Mace in the back and haven't acted on it so far. 

If he came to change sides the Tyrells are screwed... he holds Margaery, her consins and the city. The only think they have against him is a sacred oath sweared by him... a guy that threatened  his own son about becoming kinslayer.

So yeah definitely not a good person by any means.

Basically, it all comes down to this question....

Is Randyll Tarly a Targaryen loyalist or is he a Tyrell loyalist?

He doesn't have to even be disloyal to the Tyrells; he just needs to be loyal to Aegon Targaryen. If

Oh and one more thing; there's no way that Randyll Tarly will support the claim of Daenerys Targaryen. He's not much of a pig but he's absolute chauvinist. It's either Aegon or Tommen. And if Tommen and/or the Tyrells in King's Landing (i.e. Mace, Margaery) succumb to the schemes of Cersei, Varys, the Faith Militant and/or the Sand Snakes, then....

Notice how Mace and Margaery are two of some of the most powerful people in the realm? Garlan, the good warrior that he is, is not going to succeed. If those three are lost, as far as Tarly is concerned, there is nothing holding him to them. Tarly is a military men who respect military power. Those three Tyrells personify the different shades of military power.

If Lord Randyll can hate, terrorize and threaten the life of his firstborn, flesh-and-blood son just because he's an insecure (re: immature) bookworm, then why would he lay his life and the lives of his banners on the line for a old woman and a cripple.

On 3/11/2019 at 12:19 PM, Legitimate_Bastard said:

I wonder if Olenna plays up the idiot role to make him seem less threatening...

I don't think she does it to make Mace less threatening. I think Olenna calls him an idiot because she's a incredibly clever woman with standards set so high that she is hard to please.

But in any case, yeah. We can tell from the Kevan Lannister epilogue in Dance that Mace is neither an idiot nor a pushover.

On 3/13/2019 at 8:24 AM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The Freys breaking guest rights doesn't mean that every other house has to do or wants to do the same. If Leyton Hightower was intent on turning him over, he would have done so already.

No but considering the success of the Lannisters, Boltons and Freys post-Red Wedding, I'd say that the Freys' violation of guest right demonstrates that it works. Lots of positive developments.

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15 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Basically, it all comes down to this question....

Is Randyll Tarly a Targaryen loyalist or is he a Tyrell loyalist?

He doesn't have to even be disloyal to the Tyrells; he just needs to be loyal to Aegon Targaryen. If

Oh and one more thing; there's no way that Randyll Tarly will support the claim of Daenerys Targaryen. He's not much of a pig but he's absolute chauvinist. It's either Aegon or Tommen. And if Tommen and/or the Tyrells in King's Landing (i.e. Mace, Margaery) succumb to the schemes of Cersei, Varys, the Faith Militant and/or the Sand Snakes, then....

Notice how Mace and Margaery are two of some of the most powerful people in the realm? Garlan, the good warrior that he is, is not going to succeed. If those three are lost, as far as Tarly is concerned, there is nothing holding him to them. Tarly is a military men who respect military power. Those three Tyrells personify the different shades of military power.

If Lord Randyll can hate, terrorize and threaten the life of his firstborn, flesh-and-blood son just because he's an insecure (re: immature) bookworm, then why would he lay his life and the lives of his banners on the line for a old woman and a cripple.

I don't think she does it to make Mace less threatening. I think Olenna calls him an idiot because she's a incredibly clever woman with standards set so high that she is hard to please.

But in any case, yeah. We can tell from the Kevan Lannister epilogue in Dance that Mace is neither an idiot nor a pushover.

No but considering the success of the Lannisters, Boltons and Freys post-Red Wedding, I'd say that the Freys' violation of guest right demonstrates that it works. Lots of positive developments.

A.) This, I feel, is where the Blackfyre parallel comes into play with Aegon VI playing the roll of Daemon and weepy Tommen being Dareon the Good. 

B.) Your next two points is exactly why I think Tarly will stay true. Those stern militant types are THE ones who despise turncloaks and sneaks the most. Don't get me wrong there is a build up but idk it could just as easily not happen.

C.) Preach!

The Reach isn't in great shape, Rowan will turn, Mace is about to walk into a hard loss, and yeah the Redwyne fleet seems screwed.

But on the flip side, Oldtown isn't going to get caught with it's pants down, they're ready for anything aside from unholy magic rituals and with whatever is going down in the Hightower they might be ready for that too.

Tarly and the remainder of Tyrell forces are in the city, if Cersei or the High Sparrow try anything it'll go bad for them, not the Tyrells.

Dornishmen is a true wildcard if they flooded the Reach yeah Tyrells are pretty boned but wouldn't they meet up with Aegon? Also Tarly IS a Marcher Lord, If the Dornishmen swarm the Reach, Tarly's loyalty to the Tyrell/Lannister regime is pretty much assured.

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7 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

No but considering the success of the Lannisters, Boltons and Freys post-Red Wedding, I'd say that the Freys' violation of guest right demonstrates that it works. Lots of positive developments.

I very much disagree with this. They were successful in removing an enemy, but I disagree that there have been positive developments. The Lannisters, Boltons and Freys are collapsing on the inside and are surrounded with enemies. 

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17 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

But in any case, yeah. We can tell from the Kevan Lannister epilogue in Dance that Mace is neither an idiot nor a pushover.

Mace is more greedy than competent. He wants his daughter to be queen, he turns his second son into a great lord, he wants himself and his friends in the small council and he still wants more.

But at the same time he took Balon's offer about keeping the Iron lands and the North without too much thinking, he was ignored by several of his bannermen that sided with Stannis.

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8 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Mace is more greedy than competent. He wants his daughter to be queen, he turns his second son into a great lord, he wants himself and his friends in the small council and he still wants more.

But at the same time he took Balon's offer about keeping the Iron lands and the North without too much thinking, he was ignored by several of his bannermen that sided with Stannis.

True.

Asking the question of what does Mace Tyrell wants is a waste of time. The better question to ask is what doesn't Mace Tyrell want.

But 3I thought allowing the independence of the Ironborn was Tywin's idea.

18 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I very much disagree with this. They were successful in removing an enemy, but I disagree that there have been positive developments. The Lannisters, Boltons and Freys are collapsing on the inside and are surrounded with enemies. 

True. But you can still say that it was a short-term positive development, no matter how short-term it was.

The Freys and the Boltons are finished by the end of The Winds of Winter. But the Lannisters will die a slow, painful death in The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring.

On 3/15/2019 at 12:40 AM, The Fresh PtwP said:

A.) This, I feel, is where the Blackfyre parallel comes into play with Aegon VI playing the roll of Daemon and weepy Tommen being Dareon the Good. 

B.) Your next two points is exactly why I think Tarly will stay true. Those stern militant types are THE ones who despise turncloaks and sneaks the most. Don't get me wrong there is a build up but idk it could just as easily not happen.

C.) Preach!

I never noticed the Blackfyre parallel until you brought it up. Interesting.

Let me put it this way: Tarly won't stay true to the Tyrells because there will not be anything to stay true to. One thing I noticed about Robert's Rebellion is that the Reach fought long and hard for the the Targaryens even after the Battle of the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. Unlike Dorne (which was prepared to fight until the bitter end), the Reach only stopped fighting because there was no point anymore. The last three Targaryens -- a weakened, post-partum woman, a boy and a newborn -- were cornered and besieged on Dragonstone with no allies. Those three against a young man in his prime who has the overwhelming support of five regions? As far as a reasonable person could tell, they were doomed.

On 3/15/2019 at 12:40 AM, The Fresh PtwP said:

The Reach isn't in great shape, Rowan will turn, Mace is about to walk into a hard loss, and yeah the Redwyne fleet seems screwed.

But on the flip side, Oldtown isn't going to get caught with it's pants down, they're ready for anything aside from unholy magic rituals and with whatever is going down in the Hightower they might be ready for that too.

Tarly and the remainder of Tyrell forces are in the city, if Cersei or the High Sparrow try anything it'll go bad for them, not the Tyrells.

Dornishmen is a true wildcard if they flooded the Reach yeah Tyrells are pretty boned but wouldn't they meet up with Aegon? Also Tarly IS a Marcher Lord, If the Dornishmen swarm the Reach, Tarly's loyalty to the Tyrell/Lannister regime is pretty much assured.

No they aren't in good shape. They are in a similar situation the North is in except the Tyrells have spread themselves much more thinner than the Starks ever did and the Tyrells don't have the thousands and thousands of years of goodwill and strength that the Starks have. No one is going to be doing for the Tyrells what the northerners are doing for the Starks.

The Hightowers have a fighting chance. I can see either:

  • Euron being thrown back into the sea and/or killed by the Hightowers
  • The return of Theon and the calling of another Kingsmoot forcing Euron to postpone his takeover of Oldtown
  • Euron winning (after a hard-fought battle) and taking control of Oldtown

There are two Dornish armies to worry about right now. There's the one in the Boneway and the one in the Prince's Pass. The Boneway takes you northeast through the Stormlands, the Prince's Pass takes you northwest into the Reach. The Boneway army is the one that's going to go with Aegon and Arianne.

Not that it will matter. Aegon will probably face some more obstacles in the Stormlands but, personally, I think that Aegon is going to end up strolling through the gates right on up to the Red Keep. The schemes and shenanigans of Cersei and the Tyrells are going to piss the people of King's Landing so much that they will basically be begging Aegon to come. The Faith Militant might make a back door deal with the Dornish by way of Tyene. And Nymeria and Varys are likely to rub salt in some festering wounds.

I don't think the Prince's Pass army will march any time soon. If they do, they will be there to either police the pro-Tyrell (or rather, anti-Dornish) lords or they will be there to help clean up the mess the Ironborn made.

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Posted (edited)

 

23 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Mace is more greedy than competent. He wants his daughter to be queen, he turns his second son into a great lord, he wants himself and his friends in the small council and he still wants more.

He didnt put them in the small council because they are his friends. He put them because he has to persuade them that this 

On 3/13/2019 at 3:29 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

It would have come before. At the same time, these people from the Reach who threw their lot in with Renly had decided that they didn't want Joffrey as their king. They were willing to support a usurper to the throne. They literally skipped over Tommen and Stannis who had more claim to the throne than Renly.

They didn't know about Joffrey's bastardy before they threw their lot in with Renly, so why would they go back to Joffrey knowing what they know after Renly's death?

If anything, it shows that Mace who had no qualms supporting Renly and was willing to drag the Reach into war against the very king he ended up marrying his daughter to is the biggest opportunist around.

Was worth it. I already mentioned that Mace has to show them advanteges besides Margaery as Queen to keep their loyalty. IMO he himself isnt that powerhungry but his bannerman are.

14 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

The return of Theon and the calling of another Kingsmoot forcing Euron to postpone his takeover of Oldtown

I know its not the main question but do you really think Theon has at least one powerful supporter on the Iron Islands?

Edited by Karneol

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7 hours ago, Karneol said:

Was worth it. I already mentioned that Mace has to show them advanteges besides Margaery as Queen to keep their loyalty. IMO he himself isnt that greedy but his bannerman are.

The thing is, it's Mace's actions that we see and it's his greed that we see, not his bannermen. So far, for the most part his bannermen are following his lead. He was named master of ships, given Brightwater Keep, and now he is Hand of the King. The more he gets, the more he wants.

Mace rose against Joffrey who for all intents and purposes was his rightful king and supported a rebel instead. When Renly died, he went back to Joffrey whose bastardy had been outed by Stannis. And when he died, he insisted that his meal ticket daughter be married to Tommen. 

I don't know how this makes him less greedy than his bannermen. 

That said, did you ever wonder what Mace knows and when he knew whatever he knows? He may not have known a thing about Aegon or Jon Connington, but the rumors about Dany in Qarth started reaching King's Landing early in ASoS and by the time AFfC's prologue rolls around, the person who is giving us all the information (and accurate information at that) about the dragons' hatching is Lazy Leo, who so happens to be Mace Tyrell's cousin in a city that is ruled by his in-laws. 

And if he knew about these stories, then he's either a complete idiot or an evil genius. 

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