Stannis Baratheon Predictions

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, Ida Hearst said:

I have a sort of retrodiction that occurred to me a while ago -- that we'll eventually find out that Stannis died once before, and that Melisandre brought him back. I don't have much support for this other than "it's a feeling", but it kind of seems apt as a reason for Melisandre's absurd-seeming confidence in Stannis. (To make it really dramatic, Stannis could have found out about Cersei & Jamie, then beeen, say, poisoned or something, and reawakened as he was being spirited away to Dragonstone... but I guess I'd better stop it before I venture too far into fanfiction territory.)

Your idea is not that off, I think, given the way Davos describes him after the Battle of the Blackwater. Of course that defeat seems to be the reason for the change in appearance. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 3/15/2019 at 9:30 AM, Three-Fingered Pete said:

 

Somewhere in there Mel has to go; either by desertion of Stannis' cause or death.

Death...

I suspect that the fate of Serala, the Lace Serpent of Duskendale foreshadows the fate of Melisandre. Melisandre is loved by only a few...

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The queen's men might remain fervent followers of the Lord of Light, but the lesser folk of Dragonstone were drifting back to the gods they'd known all their lives. They said Stannis was ensorceled, that Melisandre had turned him away from the Seven to bow before some demon out of shadow, and ... worst sin of all ... that she and her god had failed him. And there were knights and lordlings who felt the same.

Davos V, Storm 54

Here's what happened to the Lace Serpent...

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"In Duskendale they love Lord Denys still, despite the woe he brought them. 'Tis Lady Serala that they blame, his Myrish wife. The Lace Serpent, she is called. ... The Lace Serpent filled her husband's ear with Myrish poison, they say, until Lord Denys rose against his king and took him captive. ...

... "Once Lord Denys lost his hostage, he opened his gates and ended his defiance rather than let Lord Tywin take the town. He bent the knee and begged for mercy, but the king was not of a forgiving mind. Lord Denys lost his head, as did his brothers and his sister, uncles, cousins, all the lordly Darklyns. The Lace Serpent was burned alive, poor woman, though her tongue was torn out first, and her female parts, with which it was said that she had enslaved her lord. Half of Duskendale will still tell you that Aerys was too kind to her."

Brienne II, Feast 9

I suppose being burned alive would be a fitting end for Melisandre.

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At the top of the steps Davos heard a soft jingle of bells that could only herald Patchface. The princess's fool was waiting outside the maester's door for her like a faithful hound. Dough-soft and slump-shouldered, his broad face tattooed in a motley pattern of red and green squares, Patchface wore a helm made of a rack of deer antlers strapped to a tin bucket. A dozen bells hung from the tines and rang when he moved . . . which meant constantly, since the fool seldom stood still. He jingled and jangled his way everywhere he went; small wonder that Pylos had exiled him from Shireen's lessons. "Under the sea the old fish eat the young fish," the fool muttered at Davos. He bobbed his head, and his bells clanged and chimed and sang. "I know, I know, oh oh oh."

Davos V, Storm 54

Under the sea is a metaphor for death. Melisandre is old...

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... Strange voices called to her from days long past.

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... Melisandre had practiced her art for years beyond count, and she had paid the price.

Melisandre, Dance 31

Shireen is young...

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Her name was Shireen. She would be ten on her next name day, and she was the saddest child that Maester Cressen had ever known.

Prologue, Clash

Melisandre wants king’s blood...

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Melisandre moved closer. "Save them, sire. Let me wake the stone dragons. Three is three. Give me the boy."

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... He turned back to Melisandre. "You swear there is no other way? Swear it on your life, for I promise, you shall die by inches if you lie."

... Melisandre went to him, her red lips parted, her ruby throbbing. "Give me this boy," she whispered, "and I will give you your kingdom."

"He can't," said Davos. "Edric Storm is gone."

Davos VI, Storm 63

She can't have Edric, but Shireen has king’s blood, and Shireen is a dead girl...

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"If Stannis wins his war, Shireen will stand as heir to the Iron Throne."

"Then I pity your Seven Kingdoms."

"The maesters say greyscale is not—"

"The maesters may believe what they wish. Ask a woods witch if you would know the truth. The grey death sleeps, only to wake again. The child is not clean! "

"She seems a sweet girl. You cannot know—"

"I can. You know nothing, Jon Snow." Val seized his arm. "I want the monster out of there. Him and his wet nurses. You cannot leave them in that same tower as the dead girl."

Melisandre is going to burn Shireen with Selyse’s blessing, since they will both be desperate having seen Jon Snow betrayed and wounded or dead, and having come to believe that Ramsay has defeated and killed Stannis.

And the old fish will eat the young fish.

Poor Shireen.

Stannis is gonna be pissed. 

[BlackLightning]

I think Stannis is going to -- more or less -- do the heavy-lifting required to win the Battle of Ice but the Starks (specifically Sansa or Rickon but possibly also Jon) are going to pull out the rug out from under him and take all the credit for it. Why? Because Littlefinger has a longstanding beef with Stannis and he'll be damned before he lets Stannis take Winterfell when he spent so much time and resources getting his hands on Sansa, the key to Winterfell.

Sansa will help Littlefinger sabotage Stannis' efforts and take Winterfell for herself. Not because she hates Stannis but because she loves her family and she is becoming more and more aware of the sacrifices they have made to keep Winterfell. Sansa is becoming more and more proud of her northern heritage. Plus, I doubt that she would want Rickon to be a glorified hostage of Stannis, Melisandre and Selyse like she was for Joffrey, Tywin and Cersei.

And that's a big if because I am also thinking that one of the Boltons are going to survive this Stark-Baratheon-Bolton clash and return to the Dreadfort. Personally, I'd prefer that the surviving Bolton would be Roose but I digress. Davos seems to be still operating under the notion that Stannis is going to take the Dreadfort and then work his way to Winterfell. So after he brings back Rickon, Osha and Shaggydog from Skagos (which will be a struggle), the four of them will just waltz up to the Dreadfort and into a trap.

After being resurrected/healed, cleaning up the mess at the Wall (i.e. getting revenge) and understanding that fake Arya was indeed fake, Jon might just ride south with his own army of followers when he hears that Sansa has retaken Winterfell and/or that Rickon has been taken. Maege Mormont and the other northern lords who have been hiding out in Greywater Watch since the Red Wedding will be in Winterfell by then with Robb's will. And Jon will end up trouncing the claims of Sansa, Rickon and Stannis.

I'm still wondering how Lady Stoneheart and Robb's crown are going to fit in with all of this.

So yes: while everyone seems to think that is impossible for the Valemen to invade the North on behalf of the new Lady Arryn, I think that that's exactly what's going to happen. By sea or land? I don't know...it's both possible. Probably easier to go by sea because that way they can just sail out of Gulltown or Coldw ran will interfere because there are many clues that Bran is going to clash (remotely as far as Winds is concern, Dream might be a separate issue) against Melisandre.

Shireen and Selyse will die. Melisandre will probably be exiled from the North. Stannis will ultimately have to fall back on the Nightfort -- maybe as the 1,000th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch -- and the epilogue or the final Brienne POV chapter in The Winds of Winter will be a confrontation between Brienne and Stannis and the Others' attacking the Nightfort and succeeeding.