Formula One 2019

[6649er]

>Hopefully Ricciardo has a performance clause in his two-year contract as it'd be a shame if (still a big if) Vettel leaves Ferrari this year and Ricciardo can't replace him

I read (somewhere) that Ricciardo has an opt-out clause in his contract if a seat becomes available at Merc or Ferrari

[red snow]

8 hours ago, 6649er said:

>Hopefully Ricciardo has a performance clause in his two-year contract as it'd be a shame if (still a big if) Vettel leaves Ferrari this year and Ricciardo can't replace him

I read (somewhere) that Ricciardo has an opt-out clause in his contract if a seat becomes available at Merc or Ferrari

That would be good. He's languishing at Renault currently and they seem to be falling back rather than moving forward.

[Werthead]

Bottas to stay at Mercedes for another year.

That's interesting. I suspect Lewis may have leaned on them because he feels that Ocon might be a more challenging team mate as he tries to equal Schumacher's record. Mercedes are now apparently discussing a one-year loan to Renault for Ocon to give him some time back on the grid before a possible move up in 2021. That will likely come at the expense of Hulkenberg, who may have an option at Alfa.

 

The current team confirmed 2020 line-up is:

Mercedes: Hamilton, Bottas

Ferrari: Vettel

Red Bull: Verstappen

Renault: Ricciardo, Ocon

Haas: Magnussen (although apparently Haas have considered breaking his contract)

McLaren: Sainz, Norris

Racing Point: Perez

Toro Rosso: None confirmed

Alfa Romeo: Raikkonen

Williams: Russell

 

For the unconfirmed:

Ferrari: 99.9% likely to retain Leclerc, with some saying Ferrari will break their contract with Vettel before disposing of Leclerc.

Red Bull: Either Albon, Kvyat or Gasly in the second seat.

Haas: Retaining Grosjean is possible but it looks like they want some fresh blood, with Hulkenberg a likely replacement candidate. The only problem here is that Hulkenberg and Magnussen absolutely loathe one another.

Racing Point: 99.9% likely to retain Stoll (if your daddy owns the team, that's likely)

Toro Rosso: Whichever two of the guys who don't get the Red Bull seat. The Red Bull academy is running on fumes at the moment.

Alfa Romeo: Giovinazzi has not impressed, but might be given another shot. Otherwise Hulkenberg or Grosjean is possible depending on their situations. Ferrari may be keen to bring in Mick Schumacher, but his lower formula results this year have been so-so.

Williams: Kubica's comeback has been underwhelming (despite apparently excellent technical feedback), so they are looking for a possible replacement.

 

There will also be 22 races in 2020, with Germany out and Vietnam and Netherlands in (despite speculation that Zandvoort will not be good for the current crop of cars).

[red snow]

Bottas is a safe if uninspired choice. Pundits were suggesting that bottas keeps Hamilton sweet as he's a non threat while ocon may have been disruptive. Given Hamilton could move, it's best to keep him happy. I think Hamilton will probably move to Ferrari come what may once he has 7 championships (might even risk it after 6 if he doesn't win 2020).

It's looking a bit dicey for hulkenberg. It would be a shame if he leaves the sport with "least successful driver in f1"

I guess unless there's a "ricciardo" moment like last year there won't be any dramatic shake-ups. Unless Vettel retires/moves and then there could be chaos. Or red bull brings in an outside driver feeling neither gasly, albon and kyvat are good enough

[Jen'ari]

I saw an article on my newsfeed about Hamilton wanting to do something with Marc Marquez, which would be really cool especially if we got to see Marquez in an F1 car and Hamilton on a Moto GP bike, both are incredibly talented in their respective sports.

[williamjm]

Away from the F1 race there was some tragic news from one of the support races:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/motorsport/49537761

Quote

Formula 2 driver Anthoine Hubert has been killed in a crash at the Belgian Grand Prix, motorsport's governing body the FIA has said.

The Frenchman, who was 22, suffered a huge impact from the car of American Juan Manuel Correa at about 170mph at the Raidillon swerves.

 

[Antonius Pius]

15 minutes ago, williamjm said:

Away from the F1 race there was some tragic news from one of the support races:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/motorsport/49537761

 

Saw the (amateur) footage, Correa ran right into him. You could hear the audience’s shock. Tragic indeed.

 

 

Re: drivers: Ocon to Renault, Hulkenberg out but under consideration for a seat at Haas together with Grosjean (Magnussen confirmed for the other) and Perez confirmed for no less than three years at Racing Point. 

[Werthead]

Updated the list.

[Werthead]

A great first victory by Leclerc, but obviously under sad circumstances.

Absolutely outstanding first race by Albon for Red Bull. That already looks like a great decision they've made. Gasly, oddly, also had a solid race back in the Toro Rosso, including fending off some punchy challenges by Magnussen, indicating that maybe it was just the high pressure cooker of the A-team that got to him.

Vettel has to really be feeling the heat now. It feels like 2014 Red Bull all over again, especially if he gets to the end of the season having not won a race and Leclerc may have won a couple.

[Werthead]

That was possibly the weirdest qualifying I've ever seen. No-one wanted to go first, everyone was fighting over the tow effect and as a result most of the field ended up not setting a final qualifying pace lap. Completely farcical.

It means several cars out of position (particularly Albon) and Leclerc's pole looks like the track is favouring Ferrari more than it really is.

To show we've also reached peak silly season, Alonso has been linked to a possible return to F1 via Ferrari or Red Bull, which both feel extremely unlikely.

[Werthead]

So Leclerc defeated Hamilton in wheel-to-wheel combat despite being on a slower tyre? I don't think I've seen anyone do that before, ever. Insanely ballsy choice by Leclerc. Conventional wisdom would be to let Hamilton by on the medium tyre, knowing it will burn off in a few laps and then he can catch up to him again on the harder compound. But Leclerc knows that Hamilton is fantastic at making the tyre last much longer than it should in the lead, plus the tyre would be worked much less in clean air, so by forcing Hamilton to stay behind him he gets the tyre worn down much faster and forces Hamilton into an error which he cannot recover from, which is what happened.

The only downside is that it means he had to keep Hamilton behind him which was a big, big ask and he nearly got in trouble for it (the squeezing move was extremely dubious, the "corner-cutting" much less so). Still, balls of steel time and it paid off.

Also great result for Renault and some solid performances up and down the track, apart from Vettel, who must now be on the outs at Ferrari. Absolutely horrendous, schoolboy error to spin out (again) and then an immediate second schoolboy error by rejoining the track without looking and almost taking out Stroll (who in turn almost took out Gasly). A few seconds later and we'd have had a potentially dangerous three-car pile-up. Vettel should get another penalty for that for next race, and he now has enough penalty points that he's on the verge of getting a race ban. What a prize pillock. If I was Ferrari I'd be looking at buying out his contract and then go fishing for Ricciardo.

[red snow]

Decent race. I approve of the new rules regarding leniency although I do feel like there's an element of Leclerc and Verstappen being "favourites" when it comes to their application. It might just be that the old guard haven't adjusted to the leniency as well as the new kids but I will be watching closely when Hamilton, Kimi, Bottas and Vettel do something similar.

Vettel really seems to have lost his awareness. It reminds me a lot of Schumacher prior to retirement where he kept making dangerous mistakes. It's just odd given Vettel is still relatively young but he seems distracted - that or the current cars really don't suit him. I think he's looking like the second driver now and I can imagine that's bound to have him thinking of moving (or being moved). But where does he go? Anything other than Red Bull would be a step down and I really can't see him being anything other than a number two compared to Verstappen. Retirement is also not a great option because he must be feeling he should have done that prior to the 2018 season (or at least before the summer break that year). As it stands he's leaving on  very low note.

I'm pleased they appear to be having continuity in rules and regulations for 2020. This season has been great so far which is impressive given how dominant Hamilton has actually been. The teams are all catching up and it looks like they should be even closer next year. My hope is Mclaren and Renault get into a position where they can realistically challenge for podiums with Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. Renault's performance this weekend was really odd - they must have serious aero issues if they are this good on high speed tracks. That or the engine has been tweaked but if that's a case they don't appear to have shared it with Mclaren.

[Werthead]

On 9/9/2019 at 8:04 AM, red snow said:

Decent race. I approve of the new rules regarding leniency although I do feel like there's an element of Leclerc and Verstappen being "favourites" when it comes to their application. It might just be that the old guard haven't adjusted to the leniency as well as the new kids but I will be watching closely when Hamilton, Kimi, Bottas and Vettel do something similar.

Vettel really seems to have lost his awareness. It reminds me a lot of Schumacher prior to retirement where he kept making dangerous mistakes. It's just odd given Vettel is still relatively young but he seems distracted - that or the current cars really don't suit him. I think he's looking like the second driver now and I can imagine that's bound to have him thinking of moving (or being moved). But where does he go? Anything other than Red Bull would be a step down and I really can't see him being anything other than a number two compared to Verstappen. Retirement is also not a great option because he must be feeling he should have done that prior to the 2018 season (or at least before the summer break that year). As it stands he's leaving on  very low note.

I'm pleased they appear to be having continuity in rules and regulations for 2020. This season has been great so far which is impressive given how dominant Hamilton has actually been. The teams are all catching up and it looks like they should be even closer next year. My hope is Mclaren and Renault get into a position where they can realistically challenge for podiums with Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. Renault's performance this weekend was really odd - they must have serious aero issues if they are this good on high speed tracks. That or the engine has been tweaked but if that's a case they don't appear to have shared it with Mclaren.

Vettel is only 32, two years younger than Hamilton and 11 years younger than Schumacher when he retired, so it is odd to see him making so many mistakes. I think frustration has set in, especially with 2019 looking like 2014 Mk. 2 (being comprehensively beaten by a younger, hungrier team-mate and unable to pull it back with even a consoling single win).

If Vettel leaves Ferrari, I can't see anyone else having him. Mercedes won't and Red Bull might be sympathetic, especially with their second driver troubles, but will also not want to deal with the Verstappen-Vettel relationship. I also don't see the logic in giving up on one team because you're being outclassed by a younger team-mate just to go to another team where the same thing will happen, only probably worse. Realistically, Vettel's options would be further down the grid and I can't see his pride permitting him to end his career trundling around mid-field in a Haas or Alfa.

On the other hand, retiring from F1 altogether at 32 with four world championships and the time and talent to go elsewhere (sports cars?) would not be a dishonourable way to leave the sport.

Hilariously, Alonso's people seem to be sensing this and have been sniffing around Ferrari, but Ferrari have been cool in their responses and there's scepticism that Alonso, who seems to be enjoying being a part-time racer, would be really willing to do a 22 race season. Apparently there was also a meeting with Red Bull, but Honda have vetoed Alonso's return (and in fact blocked him from racing in IndyCar this year in a car with Honda power).

My feeling is that Ferrari would keep Vettel for 2020 (or bring back Alonso for one season only) only because they have their eyes on Hamilton or Ricciardo for 2021. But if Leclerc maintains this form, Ferrari may decide to find a solid #2 or joint-first driver instead, which would probably rule out Hamilton (but not Ricciardo).

[red snow]

I guess hulkenberg could be a cheap one year driver while waiting for ricciardo or Hamilton? But that's putting a lot of faith in leclerc.

Alonso for 1 year if he's up for it would be an ideal interim driver. It does sound like Alonso makes enemies in sense no one ever seems that keen to have him back. Which might explain why he's without a drive despite being regarded as a top driver

[Werthead]

10 hours ago, red snow said:

I guess hulkenberg could be a cheap one year driver while waiting for ricciardo or Hamilton? But that's putting a lot of faith in leclerc.

Alonso for 1 year if he's up for it would be an ideal interim driver. It does sound like Alonso makes enemies in sense no one ever seems that keen to have him back. Which might explain why he's without a drive despite being regarded as a top driver

Hulkenberg would be a good banker yes, and you'd expect him to finally get that podium. However, I think the sense is that he's much more likely to go to Haas or Alfa. Him being at Haas would be interesting given that he and Magnussen have by far the worst relationship between two drivers on the entire grid. Putting them in the same team seems a lunatic decision, but it could be entertaining.

[williamjm]

On 9/10/2019 at 2:35 PM, red snow said:

I guess hulkenberg could be a cheap one year driver while waiting for ricciardo or Hamilton? But that's putting a lot of faith in leclerc.

They could always bring Kimi back if they wanted a reliable number 2 driver.

[red snow]

3 hours ago, williamjm said:

They could always bring Kimi back if they wanted a reliable number 2 driver.

That's true, he's the bottas of Ferrari. 

Kimi was quite funny on radio when asked to push harder he said they seem to have forgotten he's no longer in a Ferrari

[Werthead]

Eerk. Vettel trying to pull a Multi 21 again, but this time running straight into the arms of karma (and the really weird decision to stop where he did rather than trying to get it back to the pits, which were practically round the corner). After restoring some harmony in the team since the last race, that's just going to make things difficult again, and next time they ask Charles to help Seb out, he'll be justified in saying no.

Usually the fans are pretty good at giving Driver of the Day to the right person, but this week they got it completely wrong. Seb was being a knob. The real driver of the day was clearly Albon, who absolutely smashed it.

[red snow]

I hate team orders so I'm not as down on Vettel. I'm more down on Ferrari who threw away a 1-2. Vettel was naughty not handing the position over but he was pulling away from le clerc while Hamilton was gaining on le clerc so it seemed stupid to change positions during that phase.

Even more ridiculous was Ferrari deliberately compromising vettel's race by leaving him out so that le clerc could pass him. Let's hope Vettel wasn't completely hammering his engine and boost during those extra laps leading to his retirement. Ferrari radioed Vettel telling him to stop the car right away rather than bring it home so that wasn't vettel's fault either. Ironic that his retirement cost le clerc the race but it was mostly down to ferrari being unable to manage the race and drivers.

A lot could have been avoided simply by saying "if le clerc gets within DRS after first few laps let him pass". I imagine vettel still would have ignored the order but at least then it would have been completely his fault. As it was it was q stupid tactical decision when the driver in front is clearly faster.

[Werthead]

As we approach the end of the season I thought it might be interesting to count the number of F1 champions per decade:

 

2010s: 3 (Vettel x4, Hamilton x5 probably, Rosberg)

2000s: 5 (Schumacher x5, Alonso x2, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Button)

1990s: 7 (Senna x2, Mansell, Prost, Schumacher x2, Hill, Villeneuve, Hakkinen x2)

1980s: 6 (Jones, Piquet x3, Rosberg, Lauda, Prost x3, Senna)

1970s: 7 (Rindt, Stewart x2, Fittipaldi x2, Lauda x2, Hunt, Andretti, Schekter)

1960s: 7 (Brabham x2, Phil Hill, Graham Hill x2, Clark x2, Surtees, Hulme, Stewart)

1950s: 5 (Farina, Fangio x5, Ascari x2, Hawthorn, Brabham)

 

That's really not great, especially when you consider Hamilton was exactly 1 retirement in the 2016 season from winning that one as well, so we'd have had just 2 champions this decade. OTOH Alonso would have won in 2012 if he hadn't been smashed out of one race by Grosjean and either Webber or Alonso could (and perhaps should) have won in 2010, but those were all a little less certain.

I think that's a somewhat damning statistic for F1 this decade and it shows they really need to do something to promote closer racing and close the performance gap between the teams.

Oh, double-checking those figures, Fangio won with 4 different teams (Alfa Romeo, Ferrari, Mercedes and Maserati). I can see Hamilton wanting to try to win with Ferrari as well, as that'd make him the next-most-successful driver by winning with 3 constructors (and would automatically make him the most successful driver of all time), but I think 4 is out of the question.