U.S. Politics: Impoverished In Squalor

[Fez]

More interesting stuff from the SCOTUS tea leaves today. Things remain complicated; although Alito and Thomas remain just the worst.

First, there was a 6-3 decision by Kavanaugh on something about maritime law where Roberts and Kavanaugh joined the liberals.

Second, there was a 5-4 conservative decision by Alito, because those definitely still exist despite encouraging signs, about immigration law and detaining noncitizens who commit crimes. Interestingly though, and already being ignored by Twitter*, Kavanaugh issued a concurring opinion emphasizing that he considered this to be an extremely narrow case (and he and Roberts didn't join to all of Alito's decision) about a technical aspect of the 1996 immigration law; and that it doesn't address major constitutional issues such as how long noncitizens can be detained or under what circumstances. 

*Political Twitter is already claiming the case gives unlimited detention authority to ICE though.

Third, a complicated decision about fuel taxes and tribal law that was 5-4 with Gorsuch joining the liberals; although Gorsuch and Ginsburg (!) wrote a concurring opinion together saying they agreed in the judgment for not for the reasons given.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

17 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's a funny idea, but it's hard to believe. And George is taking it to new levels that could easily get his wife fired (not that he would mind). It's one thing to publicly question a spouse's boss' work effort, but it's another to question his sanity. 

 

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I don’t think anyone is saying that you cannot disagree with your spouse about their politics, or even who they work for. I’ve dated a staffer for a Republican before, and we had a great relationship while we were together. What’s a bit odd here though is how publicly their disagreement is, and how vicious one side is. I can’t say I’ve seen anything like it before. We have examples like the aforementioned Carville and Matalin, but they’ve always been rather respectful of their disagreements. And then there’s this:

 

 

Y'all George Conway was a partner (and is now of counsel) at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz.  Do a little googling about them.  Money is not an issue for them, like ever.  Their own marital dynamics...their business.  I don't think George is or ever was considered particularly liberal.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

40 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 

Y'all George Conway was a partner (and is now of counsel) at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz.  Do a little googling about them.  Money is not an issue for them, like ever.  Their own marital dynamics...their business.  I don't think George is or ever was considered particularly liberal.

I never looked at this through the lens of finances. I’d be more worried about reputation and happiness, especially if I had more money than god, hence why I said it would be interesting to have dinner with them (or at least be a fly on the wall).

[Mlle. Zabzie]

23 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I never looked at this through the lens of finances. I’d be more worried about reputation and happiness, especially if I had more money than god, hence why I said it would be interesting to have dinner with them (or at least be a fly on the wall).

Knowing some of his partners and their politics, I think that reputation is exactly the lens. If I had to guess, he/they is/are (trying) to preserve their and their children's re-entree back into a certain segment of NYC-area monied intellectual society.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

19 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Knowing some of his partners and their politics, I think that reputation is exactly the lens. If I had to guess, he/they is/are (trying) to preserve their and their children's re-entree back into a certain segment of NYC-area monied intellectual society.

My best guess from afar is that they’re Northeast country club Republican types, and I’d suspect that they are deeply unhappy with the Trump Administration outside of the tax legislation and some regulatory reforms. “Re-entry” into that segment of society will not be easy for Kellyanne.

Also, is “re-entrée” a regional thing or have I been misspelling the word this entire time? Or are you just rocking your love of French? 

[DireWolfSpirit]

17 hours ago, lokisnow said:

Rep. Devin Nunes (R. Fresno CA) is suing Devin Nunes Mom and Devin Nunes cow and—because Devin Nunes is unaware of who Donald Trump is—Devin Nunes is also suing twitter for suppressing conservative tweets, including his own, and Devin Nunes materially blames twitter for singlehandedly reducing his rightful margin of victory in elections, a right to which he is unquestionably and eternally entitled in all elections:

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/article228102484.html

 

But all is not lost, Nunes also declared this Westeros politics threads to be politically neutral in nature because of the format in which it exists!

 

Nunez getting reelected with 52.7 % from any district is the disgrace here. Im still hoping he gets ensnared in a obstruction of justice charge eventually, the man is a traitor through and through.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

24 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

My best guess from afar is that they’re Northeast country club Republican types, and I’d suspect that they are deeply unhappy with the Trump Administration outside of the tax legislation and some regulatory reforms. “Re-entry” into that segment of society will not be easy for Kellyanne.

Also, is “re-entrée” a regional thing or have I been misspelling the word this entire time? Or are you just rocking your love of French? 

I meant entree in the social sense.  As in, if your last name is Vanderbilt, you have entree into the most exclusive social clubs in New York.  And it's not a thing to my knowledge.  I made it up because it sounded faux-fancy and snobby like them   And I think you are 1000% right, again, entirely from afar.  And I'm not so sure they are in love with the tax stuff, as I believe they are NJ residents who pay a boatload of state and local taxes.....their bill probably went up significantly.

[DMC]

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

What’s a bit odd here though is how publicly their disagreement is, and how vicious one side is. I can’t say I’ve seen anything like it before. We have examples like the aforementioned Carville and Matalin, but they’ve always been rather respectful of their disagreements.

I don't think it's odd at all.  If Matalin was one of Trump's primary public advocates, Carville would still be staying just as "vicious" stuff about Trump.  He may not revel in it the way George seems to, but that's just more of a comment on Conway.

2 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

If I had to guess, he/they is/are (trying) to preserve their and their children's re-entree back into a certain segment of NYC-area monied intellectual society.

This too.  As I said earlier, working for Trump is actually a pretty big negative in some pretty influential circles - even non-Democratic ones.

[S John]

1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I meant entree in the social sense.  As in, if your last name is Vanderbilt, you have entree into the most exclusive social clubs in New York.  And it's not a thing to my knowledge.  I made it up because it sounded faux-fancy and snobby like them   And I think you are 1000% right, again, entirely from afar.  And I'm not so sure they are in love with the tax stuff, as I believe they are NJ residents who pay a boatload of state and local taxes.....their bill probably went up significantly.

OK, total tangent, but you mentioning the Conway's as Jersey residents made me picture Kellyanne's NJ drivers license and that got me wondering if these people have to physically go to the DMV or if there is some workaround for high ranking public officials.  It would be so weird to go to the DMV and take a number, go to your seat, and Kellyanne Conway is waiting next to you.  That can't be a thing that could really happen, right?   

I wonder what Sarah Huckabee Sanders' DL photo looks like.  She always looks angry and put-out, could the bullshit of the DMV take Crabby McCrabbyface to another level?  Or might it be something really crazy and unexpected like an image of her smiling?   I feel like there's a good chance Trump doesn't even have a DL, he has probably been driven by someone else everywhere outside of a golf cart long before the presidency necessitated it.  

[Maithanet]

New CNN Democratic Candidates Poll:

Quote

 

Biden - 28%    Sanders - 20%

Harris - 12%    O'Rourke - 11%

Warren - 6%    John Kerry 4% 

Booker - 3%    Klobuchar 3%

 

Compared to previous CNN polls in December and October, Biden is down slightly, Sanders, Harris and O'Rourke are up, and the rest are mostly just treading water.  I'm really surprised Kerry is polling at 4%, are there really people who are nostalgic for a repeat of his underwhelming 2004 campaign? 

Biden may really be benefiting from a market inefficiency in the Democratic primary.  Lots of Democrats are always talking about bringing out the youth vote, and as a result virtually all the candidates are targeting younger voters.  Sanders relied on it in 2016.  Harris, O'Rourke, Booker and (especially) Buttigieg talk about it regularly.  But in a primary, the 50+ crowd is going to make up a large portion (40 or 50%) of the voters.  So which candidate is speaking particularly to them?  Just Biden.  Now, I'm sure you could say that all those candidates want to appeal to every voter, and that's true to some extent, but you can't target everybody.  And unless something changes, Biden could end up cleaning up with older voters, while everyone else is scratching and clawing for younger voters that often don't show up for primaries anyway. 

[lokisnow]

14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

New CNN Democratic Candidates Poll:

Compared to previous CNN polls in December and October, Biden is down slightly, Sanders, Harris and O'Rourke are up, and the rest are mostly just treading water.  I'm really surprised Kerry is polling at 4%, are there really people who are nostalgic for a repeat of his underwhelming 2004 campaign? 

Biden may really be benefiting from a market inefficiency in the Democratic primary.  Lots of Democrats are always talking about bringing out the youth vote, and as a result virtually all the candidates are targeting younger voters.  Sanders relied on it in 2016.  Harris, O'Rourke, Booker and (especially) Buttigieg talk about it regularly.  But in a primary, the 50+ crowd is going to make up a large portion (40 or 50%) of the voters.  So which candidate is speaking particularly to them?  Just Biden.  Now, I'm sure you could say that all those candidates want to appeal to every voter, and that's true to some extent, but you can't target everybody.  And unless something changes, Biden could end up cleaning up with older voters, while everyone else is scratching and clawing for younger voters that often don't show up for primaries anyway. 

I’m not nostalgic, but at least Kerry and Gore both lost the electoral college by only one state. Clinton lost by three states.

but I agree, Biden is going to crush the field by servicing that particular cohort, especially in iowa. But will the Biden oldsters be stubborn enough to outlast the presumed hordes of  psychoticly dedicated youngsters at the vile undemocratic events (caucuses) or will they spit “get off my lawn” and give up and go to bed at 8pm?

iowa caucus riots to be the nexus of white race riots when they explode into violence when the rabid sanderistas face down the manically grinning O rourke bobbleheads and both sides refuse to compromise and end the damn caucus?

[DMC]

36 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Biden may really be benefiting from a market inefficiency in the Democratic primary.  Lots of Democrats are always talking about bringing out the youth vote, and as a result virtually all the candidates are targeting younger voters.  Sanders relied on it in 2016.  Harris, O'Rourke, Booker and (especially) Buttigieg talk about it regularly.  But in a primary, the 50+ crowd is going to make up a large portion (40 or 50%) of the voters.  So which candidate is speaking particularly to them?  Just Biden.

Good analysis.  I think the question is what happens if one of the other candidates breaks out in terms of coverage, polling, or one of the early states?  Biden is the heuristic choice for older voters because he's both the safe and viewed as the most electable (which are correlated, but not exactly the same) choice.  That will almost certainly be challenged at at least one point. 

And while there's not really public data to back this up, I think Biden's support is particularly soft.  How many would be ready to stick with him - or rather how many would be perfectly willing to switch support if another alternative is presented as equally viable?  I think that percentage of his supporters is much much larger than anyone else's, even Bernie's.  So basically the thing is would I take Biden over any other candidate right now in terms of probability?  Sure.  But I'd also definitely take the field over Biden in terms of probability, by a much larger margin.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I meant entree in the social sense.  As in, if your last name is Vanderbilt, you have entree into the most exclusive social clubs in New York.  And it's not a thing to my knowledge.  I made it up because it sounded faux-fancy and snobby like them  

Fair enough.

Quote

And I think you are 1000% right, again, entirely from afar.  

I know country clubbers when I see them. I grew up with these types, and I did not always love it. 

Oh well, at least it left me with a sweet golf swing. One day I'll have to challenge @Fragile Bird to a round, spot her a stroke on each hole, let her tee off from where she wants and then proceed to thoroughly roast her!

Quote

And I'm not so sure they are in love with the tax stuff, as I believe they are NJ residents who pay a boatload of state and local taxes.....their bill probably went up significantly.

I'll obviously defer to you here, but I would have assumed the federal savings would have off set any state losses, at least with the types they want to associate with.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I don't think it's odd at all.  If Matalin was one of Trump's primary public advocates, Carville would still be staying just as "vicious" stuff about Trump.  He may not revel in it the way George seems to, but that's just more of a comment on Conway.

Maybe, but I do at least think they would be on the same page. The Conways don't give off that vibe, at least to me.

Quote

This too.  As I said earlier, working for Trump is actually a pretty big negative in some pretty influential circles - even non-Democratic ones.

It's possible that the people of loath Trump the most are Establishment Republicans who've been pushed out of power. That is, after all, what they've spent their entire lives pursuing. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Maybe, but I do at least think they would be on the same page. The Conways don't give off that vibe, at least to me.

The point, which has been my main point the entire time, is we have no way of knowing that.  And I really don't like trying to read "vibes" from public figures when it comes to their marriage.  That's tabloid stuff, should be next to "Obama's brother appears to endorse conspiracy Michelle is a man!"

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

TALLAHASSEE — Florida's Republican-controlled Legislature is moving to roll back parts of a historic November constitutional amendment that reinstated voting rights for convicted felons, drawing sharp opposition from Democrats in a key 2020 presidential battleground.

A bill that would limit voting rights that ex-offenders gained under the ballot measure cleared its first stop in a Republican-controlled Florida House committee on a party-line vote Tuesday, and the president of the state Senate said he expects his chamber to draw up a companion measure.

Democrats and others condemned the move, likening the legislation to a poll tax imposed on African-Americans during the Jim Crow era.

 

Florida felon voting rights imperiled amid GOP opposition

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2019/03/19/felon-vote-sparks-battle-for-florida-as-gop-moves-to-define-rights-921875

[Mlle. Zabzie]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Fair enough.

I know country clubbers when I see them. I grew up with these types, and I did not always love it. 

Oh well, at least it left me with a sweet golf swing. One day I'll have to challenge @Fragile Bird to a round, spot her a stroke on each hole, let her tee off from where she wants and then proceed to thoroughly roast her!

I'll obviously defer to you here, but I would have assumed the federal savings would have off set any state losses, at least with the types they want to associate with.

I think for them it would at best be about a push.  Most of their income will be taxable at the top marginal rate of 37% federal (down from 39.6% - so a 2.6% benefit), but they would have given up the rate benefit of the deductibility of state and local taxes.  So they would have gone from an effective rate of ~45% (39.6% plus 39.6% of 8.97%) to an effective rate of ~46% (37% plus 8.97%,), for those marginal dollars all else being equal.  This of course does not take into account the potential effects of property taxes and bracket shift.  In addition, I believe NJ has a new tax for marginal dollars above $5 million of over 10% - not sure if this applies to them.

[Ormond]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

 

Biden may really be benefiting from a market inefficiency in the Democratic primary.  Lots of Democrats are always talking about bringing out the youth vote, and as a result virtually all the candidates are targeting younger voters.  Sanders relied on it in 2016.  Harris, O'Rourke, Booker and (especially) Buttigieg talk about it regularly.  But in a primary, the 50+ crowd is going to make up a large portion (40 or 50%) of the voters.  So which candidate is speaking particularly to them?  Just Biden.  Now, I'm sure you could say that all those candidates want to appeal to every voter, and that's true to some extent, but you can't target everybody.  And unless something changes, Biden could end up cleaning up with older voters, while everyone else is scratching and clawing for younger voters that often don't show up for primaries anyway. 

Is there polling that shows older votes are more likely to prefer older candidates?

My main colleague and I were just discussing the Democrats a couple of hours ago. I'm 67 and she's 62. We both agreed that Biden, Sanders, and Warren are "too old" and, though we are really still undecided, agreed that if we had to vote for one of the declared candidates today it would be Harris.

Of course as Ph. D. academic psychologists we may not be representative of the average over 50 Democratic primary voter.

[S John]

18 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Is there polling that shows older votes are more likely to prefer older candidates?

My main colleague and I were just discussing the Democrats a couple of hours ago. I'm 67 and she's 62. We both agreed that Biden, Sanders, and Warren are "too old" and, though we are really still undecided, agreed that if we had to vote for one of the declared candidates today it would be Harris.

Of course as Ph. D. academic psychologists we may not be representative of the average over 50 Democratic primary voter.

One of the reasons I'm partial to Beto, aside from being familiar with him as a 'local' candidate, is I really want to see a young, fresh optimist juxtaposed with Trump's curmudgeonly and dark worldview.   To be fair I think Clinton was almost successful at doing this in 2016.  Especially when I think back to the gloom and doom Republican convention vs. the Democratic convention where I thought they did a good job of projecting positivity about the  country and it's values.  It didn't save Clinton, but I think that's because the right simply had had too much time to work on making her into the devil, and she's always had a charisma problem, unfair as that may be.  

Like, I wonder, if we didn't have presidential term limits could Trump have defeated Obama head to head?  My gut says no, even after the propaganda machine had 8 years to work Obama over.  

[DMC]

32 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Is there polling that shows older votes are more likely to prefer older candidates?

There's polling that shows older Democrats prefer Biden more.  Here's the latest CNN poll.  Go to page 41 - he's the top choice of 36% of 45+ year-old and 19% of <45 year olds.  While I'm too lazy to prove it, that's a pattern.