Events you are most looking forward to see in TWOW

[Kyll.Ing.]

20 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

While I think the Sand Snakes or Varys will kill Tommen, I think Myrcella's death will either be a complete and total accident or it will be caused by Cersei...directly or indirectly.

That. Or Tommen's death will be the one death that's a complete and total random freak-accident and Myrcella's death will be caused by the Sand Snakes, Cersei or by both.

I seem to recall a theory from somewhere that the Faith will name Tommen as their champion in Cersei's Trial by Combat, as he is the King of the Seven Kingdoms and therefore of the Faith or something like that. It might have been an old theory that was long since discredited, but it has a few elements I like. 

Honestly, I don't think the way it was done in the show was half bad either. Tommen finally taking agency and making a choice of his own accord that throws a spanner in the works for Cersei. Him seeing the King's peace fall and choosing to fall with it, as it were. Granted, it was a tragic end to his character and he might have done something more heroic instead, but as far as arc-endings go, his wasn't the worst.

My favourite theory about Tommen is that he would work as a Valonqar of sorts to Cersei, in a metaphorical way. Taking away all she holds dear by taking one look at the invading army and going "yup, that's it, I yield. Time to go off to be a minor lord somewhere around Lannisport, in exchange for giving up the crown peacefully". Cersei, losing all her power at the stroke of a pen, feels choked and ... uh, drinks herself to death or something. The theory has a few holes and needs some work. 

[BlackLightning]

17 hours ago, Maia said:

As to Cersei, dragging her along to the end of the series despite her incompetence and craziness would be boring and turn her into a Villain Sue. What happened to mistakes having consequences that attracted many to ASoIaF in the first place? She very much needs to die in TWoW - it would be a travesty if she didn't. The Westerlands and the rest of the Lannisters aren't going to put up with failure forever, particularly not from a woman.

I actually don't think Cersei is that crazy or that incompetent.

I think she's learned a few things from her experiences in Feast and Dance. I think she'll be a lot more guarded and sly (but also more evil) in Winds and thus be in a better position to defend herself. Plus, she'll have Ser Robert and Qyburn helping her. And on top of that, she can easily take advantage of the chaos following the assassinations of Kevan and Pycelle.

4 hours ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

I seem to recall a theory from somewhere that the Faith will name Tommen as their champion in Cersei's Trial by Combat, as he is the King of the Seven Kingdoms and therefore of the Faith or something like that. It might have been an old theory that was long since discredited, but it has a few elements I like. 

Honestly, I don't think the way it was done in the show was half bad either. Tommen finally taking agency and making a choice of his own accord that throws a spanner in the works for Cersei. Him seeing the King's peace fall and choosing to fall with it, as it were. Granted, it was a tragic end to his character and he might have done something more heroic instead, but as far as arc-endings go, his wasn't the worst.

My favourite theory about Tommen is that he would work as a Valonqar of sorts to Cersei, in a metaphorical way. Taking away all she holds dear by taking one look at the invading army and going "yup, that's it, I yield. Time to go off to be a minor lord somewhere around Lannisport, in exchange for giving up the crown peacefully". Cersei, losing all her power at the stroke of a pen, feels choked and ... uh, drinks herself to death or something. The theory has a few holes and needs some work. 

I liked the resolution of King's Landing plot in season 6. Sure, there were plot holes and inconsistencies and things that didn't make any sense. The ending was unearned and it certainly wasn't as enriched and resonant as it could've been.

But the overarching point of the trials going horribly wrong, the deaths of Margaery, Tommen, Mace and a large chunk of the Tyrell army, the usage of wildfire and Cersei seizing power in the midst of all the chaos (likely using Myrcella as a pawn) seem to be on point.'

The valonqar doesn't take away all Cersei holds dear. That role belongs to the younger, more beautiful queen...a role that I believed will somewhat be shared between Myrcella, Arianne and Sansa.

[SeanF]

I like @Lord Varystheory that Tommen and Margaery will be Martin’s equivalent of the Princes in the Tower.  They get taken prisoner by Aegon/Arianne and are never heard of again.  Rumours of their fate do much to undermine the new regime.  I think that Jon Con and the Sands will be determined on exacting bloody retribution on anyone associated with the ancien regime.

I agree the surviving Tyrells will join Dany.  They were Targaryen loyalists, and will have nowhere else to go.  If she’s still alive, I could even see Cersei trying to reach out to Dany, although Euron is more likely.

[Mithras]

From the early readings of certain Cersei and Arianne chapters, we know that:

1. Any clues for Maggy's Prophecy did not exist (hence it is a retcon).

2. Darkstar, Oakheart and the rest surrendered peacefully and Myrcella was not wounded.

Not long after, GRRM decided to add in Maggy's Prophecy with its younger and more "beautiful" queen and whatnot. At the same time, he decided to have Myrcella disfigured. Think about that. Creating a "beautiful" queen as Cersei's enemy and disfiguring Myrcella at the same time. Do you really think this is a coincidence?

Considering that Cersei believes that the valonqar is Tyrion although it most certainly is Jaime, which she will realize too late; it is very obvious that Cersei will consider someone else as the younger and more beautiful queen determined to cast her down, until Myrcella fulfils the prophecy by killing herself, which again she will realize too late.

[StarksInTheNorth]

On 7/26/2021 at 9:21 PM, BlackLightning said:

While I do think Margaery will win her trial, I don't think it will happen off-page. I think we'll see Margaery's trial (whether it is a real trial or a kangaroo court) unfold on page. Cersei? I don't think she'll be sweeping her trial. Sure, I think she'll win her trial-by-combat but I think that Ser Robert Strong's true identity will be revealed/exposed either during the trial-by-combat or afterwards. Cue outrage from pretty much the entire realm but most importantly Dorne.

In any case, I think that -- at the very least -- Cersei's trial (if not both Cersei's and Margaery's) will get postponed due to the deaths of Pycelle and Kevan Lannister. After all, there is a murderer sneaking around the Red Keep and it's not just any murderer: it's someone who targets high-profile politicians and maesters. Imagine if the press secretary, National Security Advisor and chief-of-staff were found murdered in the White House?

That's huge.

A lot going on in your post to consider and respond to, but I quickly wanted to push back on the postponement of the trials. I know it's by no means definitive, but the deaths of King Joffrey and Hand Tywin still led to politics and events occurring. According to the fan timeline, Tommen's wedding to Margaery was the day after Tywin's wake, a month and a half after her wedding to Joffrey.

Mace Tyrell in the show seemed to be a combination of book!Mace and Harys Swift. But in the books, he's shown to be much more concerned with power (even if he is still a pompous oaf). The Tyrell contingent is going to want Margaery to be free and cleared ASAP because it's not a good look. Cersei is a bit callous where her uncle and Pycelle are concerned so while I think it causes the factions to be more distrusting of each other, they all still have something invested in seeing the trials out. Mace can even use Cersei's win as a reason to follow through on Kevan's plan to return her to Casterly Rock (it wouldn't work, of course, but he can still try).

In fact, the entire situation leaves loads of room for power grubbing by the different factions. There's been indications that Mace wants to be the Regent for Tommen, and the deaths give him the chance to seize that power. In the Dance Epilogue, the Lannisters seem to be in power with 5/8 council positions (4/6 of those present, since Redwyne and Jaime are away) - Regent, Grand Maester, Master of Coin, Whispers, and Lord Commander. Mace will surely appoint himself Regent and send for a new Grand Maester - I'm sure he's aware that his cousin Gormon was supposed to replace Pycelle when Tyrion arrested him. So using the chaos ladder to consolidate his power as Tommen's regent, much like Unwin Peake tried and failed to do, is exactly what I'd expect from Mace.

I think Cersei wins the power struggle quickly, though, because of the mention of 'the queen' in TWOW, Mercy I.

As other evidence, I just don't think there's a lot that Cersei can do unless she gets back involved with the power scheme, and she's likely to continue playing at being cowed until the trial occurs. Could very well be that she decides to go full off the rails and appoint Qyburn to the position of GM, or raise up one of the various regular maesters running around the Red Keep, Ballabar, Frenken, etc. And a Tyrell v. Cersei political war post-trial would be the perfect time for Nymeria Sand to get in league with Cersei, as an "enemy of my enemy," before eventually backstabbing her.

And for Margaery's trial — if it occurs, I still think it'll be off page as the details of it have already been shared so much through Cersei's POVs and Kevan that there's little left to learn. I don't imagine there's a major surprise, and the Tyrells are sure to pull up many witnesses who can say its all false accusations, that she was never alone, that's she chaste, etc. It could be summarized in a few paragraphs of flashback. While it's important, it's not going to affect Cersei's development much imo and the setup was more to have Cersei fall into her own trap, rather than the actual instance of Margaery's downfall.

[StarksInTheNorth]

21 hours ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

I seem to recall a theory from somewhere that the Faith will name Tommen as their champion in Cersei's Trial by Combat, as he is the King of the Seven Kingdoms and therefore of the Faith or something like that. It might have been an old theory that was long since discredited, but it has a few elements I like. 

Honestly, I don't think the way it was done in the show was half bad either. Tommen finally taking agency and making a choice of his own accord that throws a spanner in the works for Cersei. Him seeing the King's peace fall and choosing to fall with it, as it were. Granted, it was a tragic end to his character and he might have done something more heroic instead, but as far as arc-endings go, his wasn't the worst.

I think it worked better in the show since Tommen was an actual adult and not eight. Eight-year-olds lack a lot of agency in general and I still don't think book!Tommen understands his power, considering he thought it would be a good idea to outlaw beets? broccoli? or whatever vegetable it was.

The "Tommen as champion" suggestion is interesting, although again he is eight. High Sparrow seems too invested in actually winning to put the king up against a monster knight who is over eight feet tall. I'm expecting it'll end up being Theodan Wells (Ser Theodan the True) or some other Warrior's Son who knows how to fight like a knight.

[StarksInTheNorth]

14 hours ago, SeanF said:

I like @Lord Varystheory that Tommen and Margaery will be Martin’s equivalent of the Princes in the Tower.  They get taken prisoner by Aegon/Arianne and are never heard of again.  Rumours of their fate do much to undermine the new regime.  I think that Jon Con and the Sands will be determined on exacting bloody retribution on anyone associated with the ancien regime.

I could see this, although the Brandon and Rickon deaths at Theon's hands also are a pretty clear analogue for Richard and Edward, especially with the younger brother being the one to come back (Rickon and Perkin Warbeck claiming to be Richard).

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, SeanF said:

I like @Lord Varystheory that Tommen and Margaery will be Martin’s equivalent of the Princes in the Tower.  They get taken prisoner by Aegon/Arianne and are never heard of again.  Rumours of their fate do much to undermine the new regime.  I think that Jon Con and the Sands will be determined on exacting bloody retribution on anyone associated with the ancien regime.

It could be Tommen/Myrcella and Margaery, depending how exactly things are going to go down. But it could be both a Princes in the Tower scenario as well as another version of the Sack. We can expect Varys to see to it that Kingslanders yield to Aegon, welcoming him the way Larys Strong welcomed the Lads, but at the same time we can expect violence to take place in the Red Keep. Tommen/Myrcella and Margaery might be killed during such skirmishes, especially if, as you suggest, the Sand Snakes or Jon Connington use the fighting as an opportunity to murder them. Which is not unlikely at all.

Politically, it would be utter stupidity on Aegon's side to mistreat or murder Margaery, but if she were to die one way or another while she was 'under Aegon's protection' this could really blacken his reputation.

But the same will be true if Tommen and/or Myrcella die under his watch. They are innocent children. Nobody in the Realm hates Tommen or Myrcella, and stories about their sad and evil deaths will turn a lot of people against Aegon. Especially in the Westerlands, but not only there.

14 hours ago, SeanF said:

I agree the surviving Tyrells will join Dany.  They were Targaryen loyalists, and will have nowhere else to go.  If she’s still alive, I could even see Cersei trying to reach out to Dany, although Euron is more likely.

With the Tyrells we have to wait and see how Mace and Margaery go. If they end up in camp Aegon and they are still around when Dany shows up, the Tyrells as a whole might oppose Daenerys. But if Mace and/or Margaery were to die during Aegon's campaign for the Iron Throne, then the new Lord Willas would likely take the Ironborn situation as pretext to keep Highgarden out of Aegon's wars for the time being, only to side with Daenerys against Aegon when she shows up.

We are likely to see the Reach fracturing as some lords try to deal with the Ironborn, others declare for Aegon, and others still just tend to their own lands and try to stay out of the fighting.

[SeanF]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It could be Tommen/Myrcella and Margaery, depending how exactly things are going to go down. But it could be both a Princes in the Tower scenario as well as another version of the Sack. We can expect Varys to see to it that Kingslanders yield to Aegon, welcoming him the way Larys Strong welcomed the Lads, but at the same time we can expect violence to take place in the Red Keep. Tommen/Myrcella and Margaery might be killed during such skirmishes, especially if, as you suggest, the Sand Snakes or Jon Connington use the fighting as an opportunity to murder them. Which is not unlikely at all.

Politically, it would be utter stupidity on Aegon's side to mistreat or murder Margaery, but if she were to die one way or another while she was 'under Aegon's protection' this could really blacken his reputation.

But the same will be true if Tommen and/or Myrcella die under his watch. They are innocent children. Nobody in the Realm hates Tommen or Myrcella, and stories about their sad and evil deaths will turn a lot of people against Aegon. Especially in the Westerlands, but not only there.

With the Tyrells we have to wait and see how Mace and Margaery go. If they end up in camp Aegon and they are still around when Dany shows up, the Tyrells as a whole might oppose Daenerys. But if Mace and/or Margaery were to die during Aegon's campaign for the Iron Throne, then the new Lord Willas would likely take the Ironborn situation as pretext to keep Highgarden out of Aegon's wars for the time being, only to side with Daenerys against Aegon when she shows up.

We are likely to see the Reach fracturing as some lords try to deal with the Ironborn, others declare for Aegon, and others still just tend to their own lands and try to stay out of the fighting.

Utter stupidity, but some people are mad for revenge.  I would not expect either Arianne or Aegon to order the murder of any of those three, but some of their underlings might do it anyway, and they would get the blame.

Even if you think Richard III did not actually murder the two Princes, he got the blame, and it was hugely damaging to him.

[CamiloRP]

On 7/27/2021 at 6:49 PM, Kyll.Ing. said:

I seem to recall a theory from somewhere that the Faith will name Tommen as their champion in Cersei's Trial by Combat, as he is the King of the Seven Kingdoms and therefore of the Faith or something like that. It might have been an old theory that was long since discredited, but it has a few elements I like. 

Honestly? I think that this would've been amazing for the show. We are told over and over that Cersei cares for nothing more than her children, so after she does the walk of shame, she gets ready for her trial, focusing on herself and her survival instead of her only living son. The HS has a few meetings with Tommen, during which they talk about piety, justice and other BS, but Cersei is so preoccupied with her survival she never notices it and it all ends with the HS giving some public speech about how the King is chosen by the Gods and he should be the one who represents them in trial. Tommen is forced to accept, Cersei looks in horror, she has been outplayed, credits. So, now Cersei has to choose between her own life and her power (what she actually cares about the most) or Tommen. Of course she eventually chooses herself over Tommen, everyone is completely surprised, especially the HS, and the story continues just about the same, but Tommen's death would be more explicitely Cersei's fault.