UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

[mormont]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

If, as some reports are now saying, May will favour No Deal over the long extension option, I can't see how the hell that would even remotely fly in the face of overwhelming Parliamentary opposition. A large chunk of her own party would have no choice but to support a no-confidence motion to bring down the government, surely?

But do they fear a no-deal Brexit more than a Jeremy Corbyn government? 

And as I previously noted, if the government collapses, what happens to the Brexit negotiations? Do we crash out anyway? The EU can't grant an extension we didn't ask for, and if the government is brought down, there's nobody left to ask them.

[Which Tyler]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

For many months, I was giving May the benefit of the doubt about Brexit negotiations.  She was handed a virtually impossible task, and surprising nobody, she's failing at it.  But these past few weeks have really demonstrated how comically overmatched she is to the situation.  Good luck everybody, we're going to need it. 

Pretty much this. Since she came back with the deal she lost any benefit of the doubt I was giving her.

[Mosi Mynn]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

For many months, I was giving May the benefit of the doubt about Brexit negotiations.  She was handed a virtually impossible task, and surprising nobody, she's failing at it.  But these past few weeks have really demonstrated how comically overmatched she is to the situation.  Good luck everybody, we're going to need it. 

This is me too.

She is resilient and stubborn - but it's a two-edged sword.  She needs to be more flexible and open to other ideas.

[karaddin]

13 minutes ago, mormont said:

I don't think I'd go as far as to say it was now her plan, but it's a clear indication that she prefers No Deal to either revoking or a long extension (or indeed an alternative deal).

There's some degree of posturing in that, towards the EU and her own MPs, but if push comes to shove, that's where she'll probably go.

Meanwhile, cats and dogs are living together:

https://twitter.com/FrancesOGrady/status/1108726253849378816

Yeah, to be more accurate I should have said, and did mean, it's her plan for if her deal isn't passed. I'm just skipping the part where it fails to pass because she really shouldn't be expecting it to.

Wert - it should result in some kind of consequence, but reality the last few years has had a habit of drawing out these train crashes so you can see them happening in slow motion but they keep happening anyway. This last leg of Brexit has felt the same as Trump's run through the primary and GE - it shouldn't happen but it just keeps crashing through.

And I hope I don't come across as flippant, I really really want to be wrong and something to come out of left field, there are too many people being severely harmed by the already existing austerity that will only fare even worse under no deal. 

[Werthead]

Just now, mormont said:

But do they fear a no-deal Brexit more than a Jeremy Corbyn government? 

And as I previously noted, if the government collapses, what happens to the Brexit negotiations? Do we crash out anyway? The EU can't grant an extension we didn't ask for, and if the government is brought down, there's nobody left to ask them.

The EU can, I believe, just instruct their agencies to act like we're still in the EU (a unilateral extension from their side). Or they can reverse course and grant May's mini-extension until late May to give us time for another general election, which at least can be done in that timescale (Ref3 can't).

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

21 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The EU can, I believe, just instruct their agencies to act like we're still in the EU (a unilateral extension from their side). Or they can reverse course and grant May's mini-extension until late May to give us time for another general election, which at least can be done in that timescale (Ref3 can't).

Honestly if I was the EU I’d straight up kick you guys out if your government collapsed and there was no semblance of a plan in place. You can’t do business with bad faith partners.

[Mosi Mynn]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Honestly if I was the EU I’d straight up kick you guys out if your government collapsed and there was no semblance of a plan in place. You can’t do business with bad faith partners.

I'd have kicked us out way before now!

We have the most concessions of all member states.  We snipe and mutter and grumble and won't fully engage with the EU.  Our press and most of our politicians are snarky and often downright insulting to the EU.  Yet they have mostly been patient and understanding and accommodating.  Brexit has taken up way too much of their time and resources.  If the EU want to move forward to further integration I think they have to let the UK go.

[Which Tyler]

Yup

[Heartofice]

30 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I'd have kicked us out way before now!

We have the most concessions of all member states.  We snipe and mutter and grumble and won't fully engage with the EU.  Our press and most of our politicians are snarky and often downright insulting to the EU.  Yet they have mostly been patient and understanding and accommodating.  Brexit has taken up way too much of their time and resources.  If the EU want to move forward to further integration I think they have to let the UK go.

We are a bad fit, always have been. The one size fits all model of the EU doesn't work, which is why there were serious talks about multi-speed Europe, and the EURO is in serious trouble.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

looking at the tracker to the Leave with No deal petition,  https://petitions.acadweb.co.uk/overview/229963

 

they have also had a hike in votes today.   they had got 4003 extra today.

 

[Mosi Mynn]

7 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

We are a bad fit, always have been. The one size fits all model of the EU doesn't work, which is why there were serious talks about multi-speed Europe, and the EURO is in serious trouble.

We have been a bad fit - but we don't have to be. I would be interested to see what we and the EU could be if we committed to it. 

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Mosi Mynn said:

We have been a bad fit - but we don't have to be. I would be interested to see what we and the EU could be if we committed to it. 

Unlikely, without being part of the EURO we are always going to be a bad fit. Hard to see how we can exist as part of an EU in the future when we don't want to further integrate. I think us not integrating is a very good thing too.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

50 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I'd have kicked us out way before now!

We have the most concessions of all member states.  We snipe and mutter and grumble and won't fully engage with the EU.  Our press and most of our politicians are snarky and often downright insulting to the EU.  Yet they have mostly been patient and understanding and accommodating.  Brexit has taken up way too much of their time and resources.  If the EU want to move forward to further integration I think they have to let the UK go.

Well then, there’s only one option:

 

[Mosi Mynn]

9 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Unlikely, without being part of the EURO we are always going to be a bad fit. Hard to see how we can exist as part of an EU in the future when we don't want to further integrate. I think us not integrating is a very good thing too.

Impossible I would think for the moment.

I don't want the UK to be part of the euro, but I think we could be more supportive.  But there's little appetite for getting closer to the EU.

[mormont]

So, the EU position is now officially that we can have an extension to the 22nd May, if and only if May's deal passes at the third meaningful vote.

(Question I've been pondering today: if you ask people to vote on the deal three times because you refuse to accept the answer, in what sense were the first two votes 'meaningful'?)

[Ser Hedge]

4 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Corbyn is meeting with Barnier to discuss.. something. Clearly he has no intention of voting for May's deal. Here we are in March and he is still talking about his vague deal. 

How is his vague customs union deal not compatible with this withdrawal?

Sigh .............. not that he's the only one to blame here and not that the withdrawal agreement on the table is my preferred option, but at least it let's us move on!

[john]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Honestly if I was the EU I’d straight up kick you guys out if your government collapsed and there was no semblance of a plan in place. You can’t do business with bad faith partners.

The EU are bureaucrats and diplomats, not Trumpian politicians. They’re in the business of propping countries up, not cutting them loose.

Having said that, my wife (an EU bureaucrat) has been grumbling recently about the possibility of Britain ending up staying in and continuing to cause trouble to her beloved institutions.

47 minutes ago, mormont said:

(Question I've been pondering today: if you ask people to vote on the deal three times because you refuse to accept the answer, in what sense were the first two votes 'meaningful'?)

Certainly seems less democratic than any new referendum could be. But to be fair, May has always been very clear on her nonsensical jargon.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Let me get this straight, your government has no plan going forward and the EU won’t accept a long term extension without a plan in place?

Long term or not long term.

Long term extension would be 2 years+. For that the UK would have to participate in the EU election (this is actually a big deal). The EU election is taking place in late May. Which both May and Corbyn rule out. The EU is not willing to grant the extension May asked for (after the EU election, but before the new Parliament starts to work). The reason is exactly the one I pointed out yesterday. If the UK were a member and decides to revoke article 50, without participation in the EU elction, that would be a legal nightmare. As in EU members gotta have representation.

Technically speaking I think the deadline for the UK to commit to the EU election is April 12th (!), so I am surprised they were willing to offer an extension to one day before election day (the very latest deadline). Apparently the reason behind that was, that an extension of just a few weeks would be totally useless to sort out this mess (not that the additional extra time will make a difference in that respect).

Anyway, I think it's time to come terms with a few unpleasent truths.

First Brexit is gonna happen; it just is. The time window to stop it just way too narrow now. You essentially have maybe a month left to commit to the EU elections, which is just a necessity for any other outcome. And given the opposition of both May and Corbyn, I don't see a shift happening within a month.

Second no deal looks way more likely than May getting her deal thru parliament.

 

28 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Sigh .............. not that he's the only one to blame here and not that the withdrawal agreement on the table is my preferred option, but at least it let's us move on!

Move on? Oh my dear summer child, the next stage is gonna be the difficult one. The Withdrawal Agreement was child's play compared to the next stage of negotiations with the future relationship. Don't be mistaken, if May's deal passes, you will be treated to a decade of Brexit.

[DaveSumm]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

So, the EU position is now officially that we can have an extension to the 22nd May, if and only if May's deal passes at the third meaningful vote.

So if we have a third vote next Thursday, it’ll be May’s Deal or No Deal? Surely? The second it gets voted down, the extension also collapses and the default is no deal the day after? Jesus, we know how to cut things close.

[Werthead]

Bercow having to assert his authority twice, even telling Leadsom to sit down and shut up at one point whilst he schooled her on his responsibilities.