UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

[Ser Hedge]

20 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

You essentially have maybe a month left to commit to the EU elections, which is just a necessity for any other outcome. 

Not sure about timeline, but I have heard there is a way around not having MEPs. Appointed representatives can be sent to EU Parliament as countries that acceded to the EU mid-cycle did. So, I'm not sure that missing the election means not being able to revoke A50.

20 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Move on? Oh my dear summer child, the next stage is gonna be the difficult one.

:-D

Don't disagree, but removes the no deal cliff edge. You know at worst Britain will be in the customs union and the six counties in the single market. Not great for many reasons, but better than the shambles we're in at the moment. And mainly, the good people that voted Leave can be told we have left, so they can calm down and carry on. Well, some of them, at least. As for the others:

Err, what's that, you lost your job at the car plant that used to be in a seamless cross-EU supply chain, because the Japanese owners couldn't take all the excitement and bailed? Maybe you can move to Slovakia and look for a job there. Except that, you'll need a visa.

Your town lost it's EU funding? Well theoretically, the money being sent to the EU budget before should be used to replace all EU grants. Except that, sorry that's not how it works around here. Now bgger off and find somebody else to blame.

[Erik of Hazelfield]

5 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

So if we have a third vote next Thursday, it’ll be May’s Deal or No Deal? Surely? The second it gets voted down, the extension also collapses and the default is no deal the day after? Jesus, we know how to cut things close.

This is my question too.

And could this all be avoided if, after the deal gets voted down a third time (assuming they even find some way around Bercow's ruling), a coalition of soft brexiters, red unicorn brexiters and remainers vote to revoke article 50 unilaterally rather than having the UK crash out dealless? Or am I far too wishful here?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Ser Hedge said:

Not sure about timeline, but I have heard there is a way around not having MEPs. Appointed representatives can be sent to EU Parliament as countries that acceded to the EU mid-cycle did. So, I'm not sure that missing the election means not being able to revoke A50.

The seats will have been reallocated.

 That's why the EU is adament about that May extension being tied to the WA, as that marks the departure, whether the EU treats the UK as some imaginery member is a much lesser headache.

[Which Tyler]

1,269,501 passed

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Erik of Hazelfield said:

And could this all be avoided if, after the deal gets voted down a third time (assuming they even find some way around Bercow's ruling), a coalition of soft brexiters, red unicorn brexiters and remainers vote to revoke article 50 unilaterally rather than having the UK crash out dealless? Or am I far too wishful here?

Technically speaking, the UK goverment (May) is the one that has to send the letter to Tusk. If you get a PM willing to draft the revocation, it is possible to stop it.

[Ser Hedge]

12 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

The second it gets voted down, the extension also collapses and the default is no deal the day after? Jesus, we know how to cut things close.

After it gets voted down, the EU will likely (barring vetoes) offer the option of a longer extension. Parliament from its side - not sure through what mechanism - will try to stop a no deal from happening (not sure they will revoke A50). May claims she will not be the one to ask for a long extension. So, she'd theoretically have to resign and let someone else do it (but she might still stay on anyway). The EU will likely not want to trigger a no-deal exit in the midst of this chaos (The Republic of Ireland will be caught up and get it worse than Team GB) and probably unilaterally extend all agreements as was posted here before. (I don't know if Corbyn wants to move a no confidence motion in the middle of this). Anyway, we muddle through with a unilateral EU extension or a longer delay agreed with May or a Tory caretaker PM. Tory leadership election throws up a hard Brexiteer PM. Parliament is still remain/soft Brexit. Deadlock. General election maybe, but probably still deadlock. Second Referendum? Maybe, but what question to ask. Meanwhile yellow vest rent a mob Brexiteers run riot. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Ser Hedge said:

After it gets voted down, the EU will likely (barring vetoes) offer the option of a longer extension. Parliament from its side - not sure through what mechanism - will try to stop a no deal from happening (not sure they will revoke A50). May claims she will not be the one to ask for a long extension. So, she'd theoretically have to resign and let someone else do it (but she might still stay on anyway). The EU will likely not want to trigger a no-deal exit in the midst of this chaos (The Republic of Ireland will be caught up and get it worse than Team GB) and probably unilaterally extend all agreements as was posted here before. (I don't know if Corbyn wants to move a no confidence motion in the middle of this). Anyway, we muddle through with a unilateral EU extension or a longer delay agreed with May or a Tory caretaker PM. Tory leadership election throws up a hard Brexiteer PM. Parliament is still remain/soft Brexit. Deadlock. General election maybe, but probably still deadlock. Second Referendum? Maybe, but what question to ask. Meanwhile yellow vest rent a mob Brexiteers run riot.  

The longer option still invovles the UK participating in the EU elections, which is a no-go for Corbyn and May. Yes, this election will always pop up in those outcomes.

[Ser Hedge]

1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The longer option still invovles the UK participating in the EU elections, which is a no-go for Corbyn and May. Yes, this election will always pop up in those outcomes.

Got it thx. A political analyst (well actually an economic analyst who has had to become a political one with this mess) thought that while this is very difficult of course, it might not be unsurmountable. Clearly would be a huge, huge headache for the EU.

I was actually thinking of the movie Darkest Hour and how Chamberlain is replaced with Churchill at the helm of a national unity government. Is that completely LOTR-sy while we're stuck in a ASOIAF world? Well, ok, to be fair there is not an actual war on. But we have to be really, really thankful there isn't, because with this crew, there would be no hope of even a bitter sweet ending!

[Werthead]

Labour MP attacked in the street in Kemptown, blames May's speech as the man was screaming that MPs are traitors.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Ser Hedge said:

Got it thx. A political analyst (well actually an economic analyst who has had to become a political one with this mess) thought that while this is very difficult of course, it might not be unsurmountable. Clearly would be a huge, huge headache for the EU.

I mean putting aside the inherent arrogance, of a rule based organization throwing the rule book out of the window to accomondate the UK, the idea... I mean, I have no idea where to begin.

Either the UK is a member or it isn't. If it is, it has got to have representation (MEPs).  I have no idea you can work around this.  Is the EU supposed to line up British MEPs at gunpoint and force them to stand for reelection and then drag them into the EUropean parliament?

I mean, there has to be movement from the leading British politicians (May and Corbyn *sigh*). THere's no way around it.

[HexMachina]

5 hours ago, mormont said:

I would genuinely not put it past Theresa May to take us out without a deal and resign as PM in the same breath. 

 

No, her party tried to remove her as leader, and now can't try that again for a year - but that's an internal Tory party thing. She can still face a vote of no-confidence in the House, which would oblige her to resign as PM, but the question would then be, would the EU grant an extension for a General Election to take place - and if one did, would it put into power a government capable of commanding a majority and taking action?

If I were a betting lady I'd probably place good money on that (no deal/resign). 

[Ser Hedge]

15 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Either the UK is a member or it isn't. If it is, it has got to have representation (MEPs).  I have no idea you can work around this.  Is the EU supposed to line up British MEPs at gunpoint and force them to stand for reelection and then drag them into the EUropean parliament?

Let's say the EU elections are held without us and as you say the seats are reallocated ( or do those seats just cease to exist and European Parliament becomes smaller? I don't know). Now it turns out the UK comes back to the EU like an annoying distant relative who wants to park itself on the couch for a few 'weeks' (I.e. the A50 period is officially extended for 2 years or whatever). Can the same arrangements be made as they were for the more recent entrants to the EU when they joined mid-cycle? They (Croatia, Romania) sent appointed representatives to EU Parliament until the next election cycle, similarly the UK divides up its quota between the parties in proportion to their Westminster MPs, asks each party to nominate them and off we go?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Seats are being reallocated.

As for the second bit. That is a legal nightmare, there's no way the EU will sign up to this. I mean, they'd be open for legal challenges left and right (and rightly so), and you'd send a the EU legal team into psych ward. I mean Farrage wins case against EU in ECJ is the last headline anybody wants to read. Either the UK will have left by the time the European elections are held, or they are still there.

[Chaircat Meow]

Yea, I have to say, I think this inflexibility wrt the elections is overblown. Real but overblown. Would it kill anyone to have the UK MEPs arrive a couple of months late and for the existing Parliament to carry on for a few extra months. We are talking about a sixth or so of the Union's GDP going awol here, you would have thought a bit of pragmatism would be in order.  

The elections are a second order problem, the real question is does the EU want to avoid a no-deal Brexit and open up the possibility for Brexit to be called off. If it does some fix can be found for the elections, if it doesn't they will be the formal reason for refusing the extension. And, as far as I know, the UK can still revoke and stay even if it has made no provision for the elections, so the EU can't necessarily avoid the problem anyway. 

[Chaircat Meow]

Some thoughts from Chaircat

May’s refusal to seek a long extension, which she more or less promised she would a few weeks ago, means no deal is now appreciably more likely. You can point to the majority against this in the HoC all you like but the grim truth is MPs have left themselves virtually no time to take the necessary action to prevent no deal happening.

If MV3 is on Wednesday or Thursday (somehow, what about Bercow) then there is just no time to form an alternative government via a VONC or to revoke article.50. To take the latter example, primary legislation has passed in a day before but this has been when it was unopposed. The ERG smell blood though and they will fight a revocation every step of the way, so it will probably take much longer than a day to pass. In the first example, if Corbyn won a VONC on Thursday May can still linger trying to form a new majority and refuse to ask for the extension.

So, if MV3 does make it back to the HoC, past Bercow, and if MPs still want to reject it then they have to bank on May asking for a long extension and switching course regarding the EP election, and the EU, especially Macron, granting one. It is true both of those things may happen but they are far from certain. So no deal is now a real possibility.

And the mood music for MV3 passing is terrible. Labour MPs are now accusing the PM of putting their personal safety in danger by going over Parliament’s head and blaming MPs in front of the nation for the mess. This is just the sort of bad blood between the opposition and the government that could make Labourites thinking of voting for the deal tough it out: they will not be bullied by May.  

And the ERG think their filthy little no-deal Nirvana is now in sight; she will not get the rebellion down from the nationalist side of the Tory party, if anything it's going to go up. Her plan has always been to try and crumble one flank of the opposition to her deal by narrowing three options (no deal, deal, soft Brexit/Remain) down to two. It never ever works and this attempt looks set to be less successful than the last.

And even if we do get an extension it is not clear how this can be resolved. Eminent commentators, such as John Rentoul, think Corbyn will never really help get a customs union Brexit over the line. There is sense in this. Labour isn’t opposing the government principally out of principal here, they’re opposing because they’re the opposition. May's deal is pretty much a permanent customs union anyway. They’re just never going to vote for a Tory Brexit.

And this means an election will likely solve nothing either. Lets say an election was called and the filthy one ended up with a majority of ten (which is being very generous). Then he still would not get a Labour deal through, because the Tories, being the opposition would oppose and the Remainers in Labour ranks would also, and Corbyn would be in the same situation as May (only he would actually look even more pathetic).

Maybe the Kyle amendment could be the solution, but even this does not solve the Tory dilemma. The second referendum gives the ERG nothing, so only a Labour-rumpTory coalition could get it through and I can't see that happening. The best outcome might just be a panicked revocation and then for everyone to focus on the NHS, potholes and the bins but, as I said, I suspect the point at which Parliament could revoke before 29 March has now passed.

We are fucked.

[Which Tyler]

Closing in on 2M, should happen before midnight, depending on further crashes and late night slow down.

ETA, going glossy quickly at the moment, may be in about 15 minutes!

[Which Tyler]

So that's April 12th IF the WA is defeated again; May 22nd IF it passes. Assuming Theresa agrees.

Whilst there's another attempt for parliament to take itself over and have indicative votes (with EFTA+ appearing thr favourite).

Is that right?

Oh, and 2M is up

[karaddin]

This seems perfectly normal, no reason to avoid the circumstances that call for this

[Spockydog]

16 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

So that's April 12th IF the WA is defeated again; May 22nd IF it passes. Assuming Theresa agrees.

Whilst there's another attempt for parliament to take itself over and have indicative votes (with EFTA+ appearing thr favourite).

Is that right?

 

Surely this is all moot, until we know what solution May proposes for the Berkow Problem.

[williamjm]

I saw this quote in some of the coverage which I think perfectly sums up the competence of our government:

EU official says that when leaders asked May what she was going to do if her deal was voted down, she would only reply that she was following her 'Plan A' of getting it through. It was then they decided 'she didn't have a plan so they needed to come up with one for her'.