UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

[Which Tyler]

11 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

EU carefully making sure the blood of any no deal Brexit is not on their hands. Don't blame them. Now a no deal happens if MV3 fails (assuming speaker allows it in the first place) and the UK by April 12th do not confirm they will take part in EU Parliament elections and agree to a long delay, and do not come back with any other plan either (of course, any such plan will obviously be shot down, but we ain't telling you that now - but to be fair the UK is not capable of coming with any plans anyway, so it's a bluff that will never be called).

 

Just on the bolded - that's not really true (IMO).

If we come back with a proposal to withdraw May's red lines, remove May, and start again from scratch - there's a good chance it will be accepted.

If we come back with a proposal that we actually want EFTA membership etc - that will almost certaily be accepted.

If we come back with a proposal that parliament is deadlocked; so we're going back to the people, and need more time - that will almost certainly be accepted.

[Which Tyler]

4 hours ago, Mosi Mynn said:

Arguments still rage about the low turnout for the referendum.

Wait - what?

I;ve seen the precise opposite, but don't recall seeing any argument that the referendum turnout was low - given that 72.2% turnout was higher than any other British election for 20 years; and pretty close to the average turnout over the previous century (72.9%)

[Spockydog]

48 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

Both sides lied.

Though only one side was reported to the police by the Electoral Commission.

[Heartofice]

4 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

 

Just on the bolded - that's not really true (IMO).

If we come back with a proposal to withdraw May's red lines, remove May, and start again from scratch - there's a good chance it will be accepted.

If we come back with a proposal that we actually want EFTA membership etc - that will almost certaily be accepted.

If we come back with a proposal that parliament is deadlocked; so we're going back to the people, and need more time - that will almost certainly be accepted.

Firstly I don't think the EU would be too happy with any of that due to the Elections, plus the dragging out of this mess almost indefinitely . Secondly we'd have to somehow demonstrate there was a majority for any of the other options, such as a Customs Union etc. Unfortunately we've already had votes on elements of this and Parliament has rejected them, and I highly doubt there is a real majority for anything, which is the huge sticking point.

[Mosi Mynn]

3 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Wait - what?

I;ve seen the precise opposite, but don't recall seeing any argument that the referendum turnout was low - given that 72.2% turnout was higher than any other British election for 20 years; and pretty close to the average turnout over the previous century (72.9%)

I've seen numerous people say that 17.4 million people voting to leave the EU is not enough or representative or valid.

The overall turnout was larger than most general elections!

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I've seen numerous people say that 17.4 million people voting to leave the EU is not enough or representative or valid.

The overall turnout was larger than most general elections!

The majority difference is pretty slight I'd say. If you want to make huge political change to your country you'd probably want at least 60% majority either way. The whole referendum was so poorly conceived.

[Mosi Mynn]

Just now, Heartofice said:

 The whole referendum was so poorly conceived.

There's a notion the whole country can get behind!

[Which Tyler]

5 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I've seen numerous people say that 17.4 million people voting to leave the EU is not enough or representative or valid.

The overall turnout was larger than most general elections!

That's a different thing to "turnout" though. That's about the margin of victory.

For changing the consitution of most countries there will be someonething along the lines of "you need 50%+1 of the elctorate" or "more than 60% of the vote" or something along those lines; not 50%+1 of those who actually vote.

 

ETA: Beaten to it by HOI

[Mosi Mynn]

Just now, Which Tyler said:

For changing the consitution of most countries there will be someonething along the lines of "you need 50%+1 of the elctorate" or "more than 60% of the vote" or something along those lines; not 50%+1 of those who actually vote.

Which would be sensible.

Or make voting compulsory.

But we knew we had none of these things going into the referendum, and that the result would be that the side with the majority of votes would win.  It's the one thing they didn't lie about!

[A Horse Named Stranger]

6 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

If we come back with a proposal to withdraw May's red lines, remove May, and start again from scratch - there's a good chance it will be accepted. 

If we come back with a proposal that we actually want EFTA membership etc - that will almost certaily be accepted.

Those outcomes require the WA to pass. You have to seperate the future relations from the WA. I mean you can withdraw/change May's redline and go for a CU/EFTA/SM without those red lines once you have orderly left. The WA is a condition for that. (as in those are all outcomes for a time outside the EU).

8 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

If we come back with a proposal that parliament is deadlocked; so we're going back to the people, and need more time - that will almost certainly be accepted. 

That is a different scenario. That requires EU election participation, and keeps the option of staying in the EU open.

 

[Which Tyler]

20 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Those outcomes require the WA to pass. You have to seperate the future relations from the WA. I mean you can withdraw/change May's redline and go for a CU/EFTA/SM without those red lines once you have orderly left. The WA is a condition for that. (as in those are all outcomes for a time outside the EU).

That is a different scenario. That requires EU election participation, and keeps the option of staying in the EU open.

 

Well, no - the first one is renegotiating the WA with closer ties and less obstinacy.

The second, is a WA in a form that already exists - We'll go to EFTA whilst conducting the next decade of talks. There would also be the option of an off-the-shelf future relationship; which would only require a long enough extension to pass the necesary legislation, and not requiring further talks.

Yes, the 3rd would require a much longer extension, and would be remaining in the EU whilst we try try to ditch May's mess and create a new WA.

[Mindwalker]

I think I am now pro Brexit. Which means it probably won't happen...

That said,

2,918,806 signatures... 3M soon.

 

 

[Heartofice]

Macron says he thinks May has maybe a 5% chance of winning her vote. Thats 5% more than I think she does.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chances-idUKKCN1R30AZ

[Which Tyler]

Just now, Heartofice said:

Macron says he thinks May has maybe a 5% chance of winning her vote. Thats 5% more than I think she does.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chances-idUKKCN1R30AZ

She killed any chance of passing her WA on Wednesday night when she threw her temper tantrum (again, it was almost word for word the same temper tantrum she's thrown during PMQs about 6 hours previously)

[Heartofice]

Just now, Which Tyler said:

She killed any chance of passing her WA on Wednesday night when she threw her temper tantrum (again, it was almost word for word the same temper tantrum she's thrown during PMQs about 6 hours previously)

I suspect she sees herself as a modern day Thatcher. 

[Spockydog]

Great news. Looks like Farage is returning as leader of The Brexit Party.

[BigFatCoward]

19 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I suspect she sees herself as a modern day Thatcher. 

They are/were both extremely cunty. 

[Spockydog]

Third Brexit vote likely next week, MPs told

Quote

The government has conceded it is likely to hold the third meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal next week, following intense pressure from MPs for more clarity on the next steps following the extension of the departure date.

Third meaningful vote? Fuck off. The first two have been absolutely meaningless. 

Why is nobody in the British news media saying anything about Bercow's position this morning?

This is absolutely infuriating. 

 

[SeanF]

Chris Davies, MP for Brecon & Radnor, has just pleaded guilty to fiddling £700 expenses.

I can't get over the stupidity of some MP's.  Throwing away a job paying £80,000 a year for £700!  Worse, he was actually entitled to this money, but was out of time to claim it, so he submitted two fake invoices.

If you're going to be corrupt, you should at least be doing it for private jets and multi-million pound flats.

[BigFatCoward]

16 minutes ago, SeanF said:

 

If you're going to be corrupt, you should at least be doing it for private jets and multi-million pound flats.

This why police grudgingly respect armed robbers, but hate street robbers