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Spockydog

UK Politics: What Goes DUP Must Come Down

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Posted (edited)
Quote

His options are May's Deal or No Brexit

I know. Brilliant, isn't it?

Especially now that the DUP has confirmed they will not support May, even in the unlikely event of Bercow allowing a third vote.

 

Edited by Spockydog

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Yeah, May's deal is not going to happen.

If the indicative votes are just an exercise to make MPs think they have more power then they do... I don't know. I just can't see the other parties coming round to her, and maybe there will still be a group of arch-ERG rebels who don't go along with what Rees-Mogg has to say.

My crackpot prediction 2 years ago when May triggered A50 was that she would revoke it at 23:59 on 28 March 2019. I mean, it's not become any *less* likely....

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I said it ages ago. Brexit is dying on its arse.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, karaddin said:

I find it really hard to believe that's the case, but I really hope it is

I can't see any scenario now in which we don't revoke A50.

Edited by Spockydog

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6 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

I can't see any scenario now in which we don't revoke A50.

I'm starting to think this way too. It's for the best really, it's been handled by a bunch of clowns and been a total shit show from day one. God knows what state this country would be in if we have to rely on these people to look after our future in the next decade.

Maybe at a later stage, after enormous political change it will be possible to have another go at leaving before we become locked into United States of Europe, but right now it simply doesn't look possible. 

 

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Do you see May revoking or do you just assume it will happen some other way? Because I cannot see her doing it.

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Posted (edited)

 

43 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

I can't see any scenario now in which we don't revoke A50.

I'm down for the toss of a coin, remain or no deal.  I'm so so bored of it now. 

Edited by BigFatCoward

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As tempting as it is to blame May, the government, and just generally call the whole thing a shit show, I really don’t see that many paths to a successful and orderly exit from the EU. Maybe the whole A50 process just isn’t up to the job, it’s not like it’s been tested before. I mean be honest, how many times have you been truly surprised at a single day’s news? The whole thing seems so nebulous that nobody made any good predictions early on, but really, it seems like everyone has just acted as we expected them to. This is just how the algorithm plays out. Had May been open to a bunch of soft-Brexit options, would the hard Brexiteers have made it any easier to get through parliament? If she’d have got a UK approved deal first before taking it to the EU, would it have been negotiable, or would this whole three years have played out the same but just the other way around? I don’t know. I can’t see many parallel universes where this has all gone any differently.

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Had she even attempted to gain parliamentary consensus - we wouldn't be in this mess.

Had she delayed before triggering article 50, to decide what her own party wanted to gain from negotiations (with a hint of realism, rather than a unicorn dream) - we wouldn't be in this mess.

Has she NOT chosen to hold a general election AFTER triggering article 50 - we wouldn't be in this mess.

 

I firmly believe that reasonable people getting together in a spirit of respect and tolerance, with a nodding acquaintance with the real world, would have been able to come up with a working agreement that would have been agreeable with the EU - and been able to do so in a few months (the actual exiting process would obviously have taken much longer).

 

Tory demonisation of Corbyn would never have allowed that to happen.

Tory infighting would never have allowed that to happen.

Theresa May putting the interest of herself above that of her party, and of her party above that of her country, means that that could never have happened.

 

A competent leader (and leader of the opposition) would have had all of this sorted a year ago; and we'd currently be sitting in some form of BrINO whilst negotiating the future relationship.

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There's no doubt that Theresa May and other senior Tories have from the start approached Brexit with the priority of holding the Tory party together at any cost. Heck, that's the reason we even had a referendum in the first place. Every decision May has made - the timing of the A50 notification, the election, the red lines, the wooing of the DUP, the attempts to renegotiate the backstop, the delays over putting her deal to the Commons, every last decision - has been about the interests of the Tory party, not the country. (Of course some Conservatives will vehemently deny this, but only because they don't distinguish between these two things. This is the type of thinking you get from people who think that memorising Ovid is the ultimate preparation for a leadership role.)

If all of this had not been true, I'm pretty certain we would now have an agreed transition deal. That would be at best a mixed blessing from my point of view, but it would have been achievable. 

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37 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Had she even attempted to gain parliamentary consensus - we wouldn't be in this mess.

.....

I firmly believe that reasonable people getting together in a spirit of respect and tolerance, with a nodding acquaintance with the real world, would have been able to come up with a working agreement that would have been agreeable with the EU - and been able to do so in a few months (the actual exiting process would obviously have taken much longer).

This is the key for me. It should never have been a Tory-only show.

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4 hours ago, Vaith said:

Yeah, May's deal is not going to happen.

If the indicative votes are just an exercise to make MPs think they have more power then they do... I don't know. I just can't see the other parties coming round to her, and maybe there will still be a group of arch-ERG rebels who don't go along with what Rees-Mogg has to say.

My crackpot prediction 2 years ago when May triggered A50 was that she would revoke it at 23:59 on 28 March 2019. I mean, it's not become any *less* likely....

Her deal is so fetch.

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4 hours ago, Spockydog said:

I can't see any scenario now in which we don't revoke A50.

I would love to believe that, but I can't. How to you think it would happen?

I don't see either May quitting, or any grouping getting their act together enough to make her. Neither do I see her revoking, or even asking the EU for a further extension.

 

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Latest on petitions signed by 5.6 million people, we acknowledge you but we still are not listening much like we are not listening to parliament.

So... no surprises really.
Government responded
This response was given on 26 March 2019
This Government will not revoke Article 50. We will honour the result of the 2016 referendum and work with Parliament to deliver a deal that ensures we leave the European Union.
Read the response in full
It remains the Government’s firm policy not to revoke Article 50. We will honour the outcome of the 2016 referendum and work to deliver an exit which benefits everyone, whether they voted to Leave or to Remain.
Revoking Article 50, and thereby remaining in the European Union, would undermine both our democracy and the trust that millions of voters have placed in Government.
The Government acknowledges the considerable number of people who have signed this petition. However, close to three quarters of the electorate took part in the 2016 referendum, trusting that the result would be respected. This Government wrote to every household prior to the referendum, promising that the outcome of the referendum would be implemented. 17.4 million people then voted to leave the European Union, providing the biggest democratic mandate for any course of action ever directed at UK Government.
British people cast their votes once again in the 2017 General Election where over 80% of those who voted, voted for parties, including the Opposition, who committed in their manifestos to upholding the result of the referendum.
This Government stands by this commitment.
Revoking Article 50 would break the promises made by Government to the British people, disrespect the clear instruction from a democratic vote, and in turn, reduce confidence in our democracy. As the Prime Minister has said, failing to deliver Brexit would cause “potentially irreparable damage to public trust”, and it is imperative that people can trust their Government to respect their votes and deliver the best outcome for them.
Department for Exiting the European Union.

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26 minutes ago, A wilding said:

I would love to believe that, but I can't. How to you think it would happen?

I don't see either May quitting, or any grouping getting their act together enough to make her. Neither do I see her revoking, or even asking the EU for a further extension.

Not sure what the constitutional position is if Parliament votes to revoke and May refuses. Google isn't helping... 

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30 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Not sure what the constitutional position is if Parliament votes to revoke and May refuses. Google isn't helping... 

May wins; probably followed by a second vote of no confidence, which she might not win now.

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