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Spockydog

UK Politics: What Goes DUP Must Come Down

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

The die is cast, hard Brexit on the 12th of April. 

I'm sure we have time to reject MV4

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2 minutes ago, Pebble said:

286  v 344   No May deal

Pardons for me being THAT ugly American right now, but are UK politics always this exciting? 

It seems Congress spends more time avoiding votes than casting them, so all this voting seems pretty awesome (if I happen to ignore the fact that the votes are about crashing out of the EU, that is).

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7 minutes ago, Pebble said:

I'm sure we have time to reject MV4

 

The dow dropped 50 points in like three minutes, though I doubt it will have a huge impact today. Expect the markets to start to get really nervous, especially when combined with poor outlooks for Germany and disappointing ones for the U.S.

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EU claims they're prepared for a "no deal" Brexit on April 12th. This blows.

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9 hours ago, Proudfeet said:

I get that members of her party might want a leadership change, putting personal enrichment before country, but how does this appeal to the other parties? Or do their votes not matter?

Nailed it. Absolutely everything about Brexit has been about the tory party.

The 48% who voted remain don't matter, because they lost.

The 27% who didn't vote (whether because they didn't know which way, because their ballot didn't arrive in time, or because they didn't feel it was worth it) don't matter, because they lost.

Non-tories don't matter, because they lost the ensuing general election (even if they won). Except the DUP, because they liked the idea of a huge bribe to allow the tories to think that they'd won.

Hell even the X% who have changed their mind since 2016 (whether because they didn't realise their vote mattered, because they thought their vote was a simple demonstration of protest, or because they've actually changed their minds) don't matter, because more democracy is undemocratic.

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30 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Nailed it. Absolutely everything about Brexit has been about the tory party.

The 48% who voted remain don't matter, because they lost.

The 27% who didn't vote (whether because they didn't know which way, because their ballot didn't arrive in time, or because they didn't feel it was worth it) don't matter, because they lost.

Non-tories don't matter, because they lost the ensuing general election (even if they won). Except the DUP, because they liked the idea of a huge bribe to allow the tories to think that they'd won.

Hell even the X% who have changed their mind since 2016 (whether because they didn't realise their vote mattered, because they thought their vote was a simple demonstration of protest, or because they've actually changed their minds) don't matter, because more democracy is undemocratic.

I wanted to like this- but that seems like the wrong response.

Nailed it, though. 

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So does this mean we will see the winner of indicative votes (probably some sort of permanent customs union) up against May's deal (which is probably some sort of permanent customs union in disguise.)

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Nailed it. Absolutely everything about Brexit has been about the tory party.

The 48% who voted remain don't matter, because they lost.

The 27% who didn't vote (whether because they didn't know which way, because their ballot didn't arrive in time, or because they didn't feel it was worth it) don't matter, because they lost.

Non-tories don't matter, because they lost the ensuing general election (even if they won). Except the DUP, because they liked the idea of a huge bribe to allow the tories to think that they'd won.

Hell even the X% who have changed their mind since 2016 (whether because they didn't realise their vote mattered, because they thought their vote was a simple demonstration of protest, or because they've actually changed their minds) don't matter, because more democracy is undemocratic.

Totally.

But don't forget the 3 million plus people now old enough to vote, who were too young to in 2016, but who nonetheless are going to be a great deal more impacted than elderly Tories.

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2 hours ago, Mexal said:

EU claims they're prepared for a "no deal" Brexit on April 12th. This blows.

No chance of this happening. Parliament will not allow it. That's why JRM and his ERG chums all jumped aboard the Mrs May Express. Now that train has finally fucking crashed, the only way forward is a GE or second referendum. 

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5 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

No chance of this happening. Parliament will not allow it. That's why JRM and his ERG chums all jumped aboard the Mrs May Express. Now that train has finally fucking crashed, the only way forward is a GE or second referendum. 

The betting markets do not agree with you.  Now, the betting markets have been notably wrong at least once on Brexit, so anything could happen.  But I do not share your optimism. 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

The betting markets do not agree with you.  Now, the betting markets have been notably wrong at least once on Brexit, so anything could happen.  But I do not share your optimism. 

Rees Mogg has been short selling the British Economy for the past three years. No Deal would have been an absolute fucking mega jackpot for his hedge funds. Note the plural. 

May's abomination would have fucked our economy, but nowhere near as bad as No Deal. He'd still have made money. 

Remain won't ruin him, but he'll lose millions. 

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41 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Rees Mogg has been short selling the British Economy for the past three years. No Deal would have been an absolute fucking mega jackpot for his hedge funds. Note the plural. 

May's abomination would have fucked our economy, but nowhere near as bad as No Deal. He'd still have made money. 

 

:rolleyes:

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5 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Is it just me, or are we actually getting some clarity on what is going to happen?  The clock has run out on making any new agreement with the EU on such a short timeframe.  May's deal doesn't have the votes to pass.  Which means the two week extension goes into effect. 

During that time, MPs will either have to:

1.  Revoke Article 50

2.  Ask for a longer extension and agree to participate in the EU elections

3.  If neither of those things are done => No Deal


Option 1 seems very unlikely, given how there's a strong contingent that prefer No Deal to No Brexit, and revoking Article 50 and thus defying the 2016 referendum would require actual leadership, something that May and Corbyn have been utterly incapable of.

Option 2 appears a little more possible on it's face, but almost impossible in the details.  The No Dealers hate this idea.  The Pro-Remainers aren't wild about an extension just to hammer out a different Brexit, and the EU is not going to be enthusiastic either.  Lots of moving parts, and virtually no time to make this happen.  Not to mention the total leadership vacuum.

Which leaves No Deal.  Sorry guys.

Did I leave anything out?  Am I way off? 

While the bolded bit may technically be true (the Pro-Remainers aren't exactly wild about any part of this process), I don't think it implies they're opposed to an extension. The whole Second Referendum plan depends on a long extension.

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3 minutes ago, williamjm said:

While the bolded bit may technically be true (the Pro-Remainers aren't exactly wild about any part of this process), I don't think it implies they're opposed to an extension. The whole Second Referendum plan depends on a long extension.

I understand that.  Although they might waste some time trying to revoke Article 50 straight up, which is probably doomed to failure. 

A delay is possible, it's just very complicated. I do believe the EU statements that they aren't going to give another extension just so the UK can spin around in circles for another nine months.  They want an actual plan, with the PM and a majority of the MPs standing behind that plan.  Getting agreement on anything at this point is really hard, and there's just two weeks to get there.  On top of that, the Pro-Brexit opposition will be out in full force, will be united, and all they need to do is run out the clock. 

I feel like the question we need to ask ourselves (sadly) is: which is better for the Tory party - Acquiescing to a delay or No Deal.  If they delay, then the Brexiteers will be furious, and since that is a majority of the Tory party, it runs the risk of the party splitting.  In contrast if they go through with No Deal, they will get blamed (correctly) for tanking the economy.  Hard to campaign on that. 

I honestly have no idea which one they'll pick.   May has sent mixed signals on the issue, and there's no time to get another PM in place before the clock runs out.  But just the fact that the default "nobody can agree on anything" option is No Deal makes me think that's what's going to happen. 

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6 hours ago, Pebble said:

I need someone to re-assure me and tell me everything is going to be ok.  You can lie.

It's up in the air now.

Westminster has rejected an orderly Brexit in April/May (and decided it wants to be under helm of PM May for a bit longer).

Whether this outcome will be ok, depends on what happens during the next two weeks.

Outcome (which I think is the most likely) 1. The UK will ask for a long extension and participate in the EU elections (necessary condition), that keeps a few options open, including another referendum. This assuming Italy (or anyother country run by dingbats) will not veto it. I don't think a veto is very likely. However, the UK has to show a way forward. The indicative votes and a potential new referendum will meet that threshold imho as a political observer.

Outcome 2 the UK crashes out in two weeks. No deal, and that's it. The UK economy will take a massive hit, and within a year the UK will be crawling to the EU and ask for new negotiations.

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

The die is cast, hard Brexit on the 12th of April. 

Possibly, but not necessarily. I still think the UK going back and ask for a long extension to sort out their mess is more likely.

 

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Possibly, but not necessarily. I still think the UK going back and ask for a long extension to sort out their mess is more likely.

But won't the Brexiteers revolt over that? I thought part of the reason some of them flipped to a yes vote was because they feared Brexit wouldn't happen at all if May's deal failed. 

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

But won't the Brexiteers revolt over that? I thought part of the reason some of them flipped to a yes vote was because they feared Brexit wouldn't happen at all if May's deal failed. 

So?

The smart move is to ignore the howling of the British Tea Party.  Again, the no dealers are really just a relatively small number of total nutjobs. And she knows all those nasty impact assessment datas (which officially do not exist) regarding no deal. It's not pretty and no goverment would do that to their own country on purpose. 

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Well if the indicative votes produce any sort of winner, most likely a customs union then it will run against Mays deal and from that point we will probably go back to the EU to discuss that ( something they will be far happier with as it’s not really Brexit, but a sort of Turkey state)

This is the reason Brexiteers voted for Mays deal, the customs union idea puts a complete lock of any of the advantages of being outside the EU whilst not being as good as being in it. It’s totally daft.

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