UK Politics: The Edge of Destruction

[Which Tyler]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

My reading is, she is gunning for the second interpretation. However, that would require the EU to play ball, which it won't. We've seen enough from this UK goverment during the past two years to not allow this (at least I hope we have). I think the EU will play hardball, and not get into a position where it could be held hostage by May. No WA signed next week, no extension till May. Only long extension and EU election open - or no deal (or revoke and EU election obviously).

 

I still think no-deal is atm the most likely outcome.

Thats everyone's interpretation isn't it? Not even subtle, and requires both Corbyn and Tusk to be much greater idiots than they've ever been shown to be.

 

I also think that this gambit has lost one of her brinkmanship options, she's pissed off the ERG, who will now never trust her on this; so how she can only threaten the remainers and soft Brexiteers with leaving with no deal. Which has already been rejected (though not as often not as heavily as May's deal)

[A Horse Named Stranger]

6 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Thats everyone's interpretation isn't it? Not even subtle, and requires both Corbyn and Tusk to be much greater idiots than they've ever been shown to be.

Corbyn, by what I've seen or heard from him, he might play ball. Whether it for him being a gullible idiot or a Brexiteer. Tusk, Juncker Barnier, not so much - and it would require the consent of all 27 states to work, and Macron at the very least has no appetite for this shenanigans. For all his domestic shortcomings - @Rippounet can add more content on this if desired - Macron is at least with regards to Europe pretty good. And Corbyn has shown incapable to grasp the importance of the upcoming EU elections. Or at the very least he has given no indication that he thinks the UK should participate. This is why I think no-deal is the most likely outcome right now.

10 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I also think that this gambit has lost one of her brinkmanship options, she's pissed off the ERG, who will now never trust her on this; so how she can only threaten the remainers and soft Brexiteers with leaving with no deal. Which has already been rejected (though not as often not as heavily as May's deal)

This ignores one fundamental reality. The UK has to actively do something about no-deal. It's still the default option. And that is actually a very big flaw in all the thinking that parliament will not allow no-deal to happen.

[Which Tyler]

4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

 

This ignores one fundamental reality. The UK has to actively do something about no-deal. It's still the default option. And that is actually a very big flaw in all the thinking that parliament will not allow no-deal to happen.

Oh absolutely, and that remains the default. Though I believe today's morons are an attempt to finish that one off.

[Mosi Mynn]

At least we've got a few good documentaries out of this.

The Brexit Storm: Laura Kuenssberg's Inside Story looks at the past nine months of Brexit turmoil in UK politics.

Boris Johnson comes across as a lost little boy.  And I'm amazed May is still functioning - all of this would have killed a normal person.

[Which Tyler]

12 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

At least we've got a few good documentaries out of this.

The Brexit Storm: Laura Kuenssberg's Inside Story looks at the past nine months of Brexit turmoil in UK politics.

Boris Johnson comes across as a lost little boy.  And I'm amazed May is still functioning - all of this would have killed a normal person.

A] Is May actually functioning?more just stuck in an endless loop?

B] See bolded or the obvious error

[Mosi Mynn]

1 minute ago, Which Tyler said:

A] Is May actually functioning?more just stuck in an endless loop?

B] See bolded or the obvious error

She looks at times like she is about to completely break down.  Yet she keeps on going.

[Which Tyler]

3 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

She looks at times like she is about to completely break down.  Yet she keeps on going.

Nah, she's just installing the latest Microsoft update.

 

She was built by Gepeto's drunk apprentice

[Which Tyler]

Just in and tuning in?

Looks like Cash and Eustace don't like the result of the last vote, and want to kill the next one.

Fancy that, trying to overturn the result not a democratic vote is fine when it's them.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

So the printer is Westminster is working again?

I am watching footy, and only check Dunt'S twitter for updates, what are they voting on atm?

[Which Tyler]

Printer?

Unless things have changed, it's the Cooper bill to extend art.50 and avoid No Deal

Bill Cash and George Eustace want amendments so that the extension encouraged, and no deal is encouraged rather than avoided.

From what I can tell, the bill was passed in its first (well, second) hearing, so now is the time for amendments.

 

I have only just got in from a conference though, so I may well be 4 hours out of date.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

That was a few hours ago with the cooper bill.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I'm watching it live,  it looks like they have some papers the current twat talking keeps referring too.  so they have either printed some off or its just random paper.

 

[Ser Hedge]

5 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Quote

This strategy would be intended to get the UK into the danger zone - that window of time between April 12th and May 22nd when no further extension of Article 50 are possible. Then she could do what she has always wanted to do and force MPs to pick between her deal and no-deal.

There is evidence for this too. Just look at her proposal for the first extension of Article 50, in which she outlined two time periods, but then only asked the EU for the shorter one. You would, let's be frank, be mad to trust her.

My reading is, she is gunning for the second interpretation. However, that would require the EU to play ball, which it won't. We've seen enough from this UK goverment during the past two years to not allow this (at least I hope we have). I think the EU will play hardball, and not get into a position where it could be held hostage by May. No WA signed next week, no extension till May. Only long extension and EU election open - or no deal (or revoke and EU election obviously).

 I still think no-deal is atm the most likely outcome.

A very good point, but like the various emergency summits held by the EU during the eurozone crisis, the EU can pull a rabbit out of the hat very, very, very late.

I think it suits both May and the EU to let the public and commons think an accidental no-deal exit is possible. This is the only way enough Remainers from Labour and other opposition parties vote for the WA and this allows everybody to move on. The EU does not want another year of this agony. Once the WA has been passed, then we don't have a no-deal cliff edge and the only choice is between sliding into a backstop or the clowns in the commons actually agreeing on a future relationship that works (very unlikely), which anyway becomes more UK-specific and cannot unleash a sudden catastrophe on the EU - specifically on Ireland, who are so not prepared for a hard Brexit.

So, if the deadline on April 12th needs to be extended to May, it will be, at the EU emergency summit on the 10th. I don't think the EU wants to own the car crash of a hard Brexit. Or even if it does happen and we have a taste for what a disaster it actually can be, it can be temporarily 'undone' by all existing agreements temporarily rolled over for a few months, in which case the EU can put the ball back in the UK's court and say, "Look we really helped you out this time, now just sign the bloody WA that you've 2 years to negotiate/review/discuss in parliament, which is just another way to formalize this 'roll-over', plus a divorce payment for charges you agreed to while a member and a backstop that you agreed to as signatories to the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. Just sign it and sod off, or if we let the temporary roll-over lapse, then no one can blame us anymore. And .... oh yeah, sorry Ireland"

[A Horse Named Stranger]

6 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

So, if the deadline on April 12th needs to be extended to May, it will be, at the EU emergency summit on the 10th. I don't think the EU wants to own the car crash of a hard Brexit. Or even if it does happen and we have a taste for what a disaster it actually can be, it can be temporarily 'undone' by all existing agreements temporarily rolled over for a few months, in which case the EU can put the ball back in the UK's court and say, "Look we really helped you out this time, now just sign the bloody WA that you've 2 years to negotiate/review/discuss in parliament, which is just another way to formalize this 'roll-over', plus a divorce payment for charges you agreed to while a member and a backstop that you agreed to add signatories to the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. Just sign it and sod off, or if we let the temporary roll-over lapse, then no one can blame us anymore. And .... oh yeah, sorry Ireland"

Several points.

Yes, the 10th is the summit where has to officially apply for an extension, that is not new. However Tusk has said he (and the EU as a whole) would like to know in advance where this thing is headed. No, the EU won't own that train wreck of a no-deal Brexit. It really won't. This would be entirely a mess of the UKs making. The UK is the party that did not get its act together with regards to the WA.

Again, check the EU no-deal measures, it's keeping the UK on some sort of very basic animated life support. (posted the link to one of Dunt's article in the last thread I think).

No, the EU won't/can't budge on that. The EU election is a hard date. Claiming otherwise is delusional. If the UK is a member it has to take part and have representation in the EU parliament. Otherwise it would be illegally constituted, and open for legal challenges, which would be legal nightmare for the EU and could put it on halt. No way, the EU is willing to give the UK that sort of power. And like you said, the UK had sufficient time to pass its negotiated deal, or apply for a long extension with participation in the EU election. The onus for a solution lies squarely in the UK's field.

This is just not up for discussion.

[Ser Hedge]

@A Horse Named Stranger

I hear you. Please correct me if I've missed the latest developments, I think as of yesterday both May and Corbyn were not ruling out participating in the elections (or downplaying the relative importance of EU elections vs bigger issues).

So, in the Apr 10th summit, upon the EU's insistence that there is no flexibility around the elections, the UK can offer to make the necessary preparations, but would stand ready to cancel participation at the last minute if WA is passed before then. I don't see why the EU cannot live with that, and this allows an extension into May. The EU, can add, but if you miss this date, then you have to hold elections and the delay is for longer and you pay X more into the budget. 

Also:

Both Labour and Downing Street described the discussions as “constructive” and said they would hold technical talks, facilitated by civil servants, on Thursday.

With the Humphreys chaperoning this, I have a good feeling about Tezza and Jezza, notwithstanding boo boys like IDS, Emily Thornberry and some naughty Paras!

Theirs is the song of Ice & Fire!!!

 

[Ser Hedge]

Also, EU elections can be blamed on the Cooper bill (act) now.

[Which Tyler]

At the committee stage of a bill, MPs are allowed to table and debate amendments to it.

Hereis a brief rundown of the amendments that have been tabled to tonight's bill:

    13 & 14 - tabled by Labour's Yvette Cooper: This is a simple re-drafting of parts of the bill
    20 - tabled by Tory MP George Eustice: Limits the extension to 30 June
    21 - tabled by Tory MP George Eustice: Takes out the requirement for the prime minister to put the EU’s chosen extension date to MPs
    22 - tabled by Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay: Ensures that nothing in this bill rules out the government extending Article 50 in a different way
    1 - tabled by Tory MP Anne Main: Limits the government to a 22 May extension
    6 - tabled by Tory MP Sir Bill Cash: Ensures the extension is subject to approval by the devolved bodies
    New Clause 4 - tabled by Tory MP Sir Bill Cash: Prevents amendments to standing orders during these extension motions - standing orders are the rules that govern the proceedings of Parliament
    New Clause 5 - tabled by Tory MP Sir Bill Cash: Limits an extension to 22 May
    New Clause 7 - tabled by Tory MP Sir Bill Cash: Ensures that an extension would not result in the UK taking part in elections to the European Parliament
    New Clause 13 - tabled by Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay: Amends the EU Withdrawal Act to make it easier to change the exit date in UK law.

 

I've gone to bed rather than watching (well, watching Hot Fuzz) but keeping an eye on BBC live updates:

Not sure the difference between 1 and 5, or if either are needed with 20, whilst 7 isn't up to us...

21 defeated 313 : 304

22 defeated 400 : 220

1 defeated 488 : 123

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

That was a few hours ago with the cooper bill.

How symbolic of what you guys are going through....

[Spockydog]

Cooper Bill passes third reading. Shit just got real.

[Spockydog]

The word from Westminster is that it's likely to sail through the Lords.