UK Politics: The Edge of Destruction

[Which Tyler]

Theresa May "It's everybody else's fault. Now damn well agree with me!"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47842572

 

[Ser Hedge]

9 hours ago, Werthead said:

The EU is using Ireland and the border as their cover for taking a stricter stance on Brexit

I fully agree, and they have played it very well. The GFA was god sent (for the EU) and hard Brexiteers seem to have got completely blindsided by it,  the wreckage of a 'free trade with whomever we like' Brexit lies in dust and ruins, the only Brexit left is May's immigration Brexit, assuming you still want a Brexit. 

[Chaircat Meow]

9 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

I fully agree, and they have played it very well. The GFA was god sent (for the EU) and hard Brexiteers seem to have got completely blindsided by it,  the wreckage of a 'free trade with whomever we like' Brexit lies in dust and ruins, the only Brexit left is May's immigration Brexit, assuming you still want a Brexit. 

O, I thought this Brexiteer theory tended to get dismissed by Remainers, who prefer to believe something like the backstop is just a necessity for keeping the border in Ireland open and was not part of a plot to force the UK to align customs and other regulations between the EU and Great Britain, which the EU was not asking for anyway. 

Would be interested to hear your thoughts.

[mormont]

13 hours ago, Nothing Has Changed said:

Also, when did it become the case that no customs posts/animal health checks were forbidden from the Irish border under the GFA? The idea they are is the Irish/EU view of the GFA but that does not mean it is correct. Afaik the GFA does not mention these things.

With all due respect, if you are suggesting that checks that are technically not breaches of the letter of the GFA are fine, even if they are likely to become deeply resented and accorded a high degree of symbolic importance, then this suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem, the GFA and the Irish situation in general.

The spirit of the GFA matters. Symbols matter. Any new border checks will matter.

[Ser Hedge]

34 minutes ago, Nothing Has Changed said:

O, I thought this Brexiteer theory tended to get dismissed by Remainers, who prefer to believe something like the backstop is just a necessity for keeping the border in Ireland in open and was not part of a plot to force the UK to align customs and other regulations between the EU and Great Britain, which the EU was not asking for anyway. 

Would be interested to hear your thoughts.

It's indeed a moot point what shape the withdrawal negotiations would have taken if it had not been for the complication around NI. It did feel like the EU quickly zeroed in on it and built the whole WA on it and circled their wagons around it.  Absolute ineptitude on the British side obviously did not help. Perhaps this perception is completely wrong. I need to read up more on the Sweden-Norway border. Both countries are in Schengen (and the UK and Ireland have a common travel area), hence no need to stop people. Goods can be stopped, but by using CCTV and automatic number plate recognition, are often not. 

Perhaps this will not work for NI, but it would have been good to see detailed, dispassionate, technicals arguments on the topic. Perhaps this was the case behind closed doors and it was the failure of HM's government to inform us, and not the EU's. The whole facilitated customs arrangement proposal was shut down so fast, that it is hard to say if it was just a crazy Brexiteer idea or if the EU couldn't be bothered. 

With mendacious hard Brexiteers repeating the same WTO propaganda (while completely keeping quiet on their position on the GFA) and a shambolic cabinet, clearly the EU did not even have to do much.

If the Hard Brexiteers could actually agree on a special status for NI (which inevitably leads to another Scottish referendum) and insist on mere WTO rules for whatever's left of the UK, while that is not something I would ever support, that would at least be a position that does not break international law and something you can debate with.

So the question for Brexiteers is, do you want to break an international treaty or do you want to break the Union? (If you love your free trade so much). At the moment it looks like it's the former, only they won't tell us that. They will only tell us they are enraged and don't want to participate in the EU elections and no second Referendum, but there are never any workable solutions coming from there.

[Deedles]

38 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

It's indeed a moot point what shape the withdrawal negotiations would have taken if it had not been for the complication around NI. It did feel like the EU quickly zeroed in on it and built the whole WA on it and circled their wagons around it.  Absolute ineptitude on the British side obviously did not help. Perhaps this perception is completely wrong. I need to read up more on the Sweden-Norway border. Both countries are in Schengen (and the UK and Ireland have a common travel area), hence no need to stop people. Goods can be stopped, but by using CCTV and automatic number plate recognition, are often not. 

Perhaps this will not work for NI, but it would have been good to see detailed, dispassionate, technicals arguments on the topic. Perhaps this was the case behind closed doors and it was the failure of HM's government to inform us, and not the EU's. The whole facilitated customs arrangement proposal was shut down so fast, that it is hard to say if it was just a crazy Brexiteer idea or if the EU couldn't be bothered. 

Eh, I don’t recall thousands of people being slaughtered as a result of “Troubles” between Sweden and Norway in recent history. My Swedish friends don’t tell me about checkpoints on the way to school and my Noggie friends don’t tell me about being systematically discriminated against. In recent history.

 

when you look at the proposed technology solutions, who is beating that drum? Johnson. Gove. Redwood. I wouldn’t believe them if they said the Sky was blue frankly.

[Ser Hedge]

43 minutes ago, Deedles said:

Eh, I don’t recall thousands of people being slaughtered as a result of “Troubles” between Sweden and Norway in recent history. My Swedish friends don’t tell me about checkpoints on the way to school and my Noggie friends don’t tell me about being systematically discriminated against. In recent history.

Yes, absolutely. It's the weight of history (well it wasn't even that long ago) that makes the issue very sensitive. I am sorry I didn't acknowledge it enough, the post was getting too long already.

43 minutes ago, Deedles said:

when you look at the proposed technology solutions, who is beating that drum? Johnson. Gove. Redwood

I don't trust them anymore either, mainly most of them just refuse to acknowledge what the choices are and some are wilfully misleading the public.

However, if an attempt to break the deadlock between avoiding a hard Irish border and attaining some kind of WTO-Nirvana was to be made, it would have to come from that camp isn't? 

The situation is that many Remainer politicians are for the most part happy for this deadlock to exist so they can steer things back to another referendum (this leading to Remain). And that's fine, it's not criticism, I'm just listing it here.

May has interpreted Brexit as an anti-immigration Brexit and the WA gives her that. The slightly different treatment of NI under a backstop she can live with, as long as non-Irish EU are not 'invading'.

Labour Leavers: Do not want to be blamed if Brexit does not happen. Beyond that I cannot discern any ideology. But more likely to respect GFA.

Tory Leavers: Mostly mixture of crazy or just completely mendacious. Seem to want to break the GFA to get a WTO-Nirvana (which I think is actually a terrible idea). If there were some slightly sane people in that crowd, then it's upto them to come up with something that allows an open border, but allows most of the UK to get their idea of a free trade Brexit.

No one else is motivated to try to bridge that gap. Maybe it's not bridgeable, but there has not been a good debate about it. Maybe because of the reasons you mentioned - the people it came from.

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

It seems like its time for an independent unified Ireland. If the UK was out of N.Ireland then that border controversy disappears for their Brexit, does it not?

[Pebble thats Stubby]

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

It seems like its time for an independent unified Ireland. If the UK was out of N.Ireland then that border controversy disappears for their Brexit, does it not?

Not all the people if NI want to be Irish. Hence The Troubles. 

It's far too soon for a united Ireland there are parts of Belfast where the peace wall is still up because the residents think the people on the other side will murder them without it.

 

The biggest sign I think of when NI is ready to rejoin Ireland Will be when both the DUP and Sinn Fein don't get elected and are minor parties.

[Isis]

8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

It seems like its time for an independent unified Ireland. If the UK was out of N.Ireland then that border controversy disappears for their Brexit, does it not?

It's really not that simple. /understatment

Also why should they be forced to do it now, just because the UK are intent on screwing themselves?

Essentially, brexiters didn't take into account the GFA or how people in Rep/NI would be affected (Also, remember that not all NI people live in NI - lots of them are in England). That was utterly idiotic. Much like the rest of the brexit 'planning'.

[SeanF]

On 4/6/2019 at 9:56 PM, Werthead said:

One day we may extend the human lifespan, travel faster than light and create true artificial intelligence, but we will never, ever figure out how the hell Westeros.org handles quoting rich text.

The EU is using Ireland and the border as their cover for taking a stricter stance on Brexit, so Varadkar is wielding a tremendous amount of power in this field, completely disproportionate to Ireland's size and influence if it was about an event happening, say, on the other side of the EU. It becomes difficult for the EU to maintain its robust consensus if member states start arguing with one another over their position, so France will find it tricky to publicly break with Ireland over the issue. Macron wants to appear tough and decisive, but he also doesn't want to appear out on a limb by himself trying to screw over Britain when other states are trying to be more flexible. Germany certainly appears much more minded to follow Ireland's position.

I think Macron's viewpoint is "piss or get off the pot."  I have some sympathy for that.

[mormont]

Mark Francois wants an 'indicative vote' of Tory party MPs to get rid of Theresa May as leader, and, he hopes, trigger a no-deal Brexit. But then Mark Francois is the type of person who will use the word 'Remainiacs' in a formal letter to the 1922 committee, and who can't spell 'Sinn Fein' or distinguish between 'loath' and 'loathe'. 

These fucking people. 

[Heartofice]

18 minutes ago, mormont said:

Mark Francois wants an 'indicative vote' of Tory party MPs to get rid of Theresa May as leader, and, he hopes, trigger a no-deal Brexit. But then Mark Francois is the type of person who will use the word 'Remainiacs' in a formal letter to the 1922 committee, and who can't spell 'Sinn Fein' or distinguish between 'loath' and 'loathe'. 

These fucking people. 

Pretty sure he can't have a vote of no confidence as May is pretty safe from those for a bit. I don't know what he's playing at here, he is wasting his time, which seems to be a bit of a pattern.

[mormont]

24 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Pretty sure he can't have a vote of no confidence as May is pretty safe from those for a bit.

No. He can't. He specifically isn't allowed a second vote, but he wants to find a way to effectively have one anyway. Because it's always OK for MPs to change their minds. Only the public are never allowed to do that. 

[Spockydog]

45 minutes ago, mormont said:

These fucking people. 

Indeed. Pretty entertaining piece in the Guardian about these idiots.

Think the Brexiteers are bad? Meet the Brincels

Quote

First up, Francois, who between 1983 and 1989 was a part-time officer in the Territorial Army, and since then has relied heavily on military terms in everyday conversation. (In the early 1990s he named his campaign to get elected as councillor “Operation Basildon Storm”). Since entering government in 2010 he has been given various minor roles mostly involving the army, much to the alleged irritation of the soldiers who dealt with him, before being summarily demoted by Theresa May in 2016.

But over the last few weeks the outpost he occupies in the Brexit debate has been gradually abandoned, meaning he has started to be invited on TV, and can finally talk about being a soldier on there. He has talked about why he can’t accept May’s deal (“I was in the army. I wasn’t trained to lose”), about parliament’s indicative votes on Monday (“a coup against the British people”), and about his mild-mannered Brexit opponent Philip Hammond (“my eternal message to you is ‘up yours!’”). Last night, after a narrow Commons vote to delay Brexit, he briefly graduated from corporal to deity: “Forgive them father, for they know not what they do”.

Then there is “pre-washed potato magnate” Bridgen, a Royal Marine drop-out with a striking physical resemblance to Francois, whose family vegetable farm is said to be behind the unkind nickname colleagues have for him: “spud-u-hate”. As the Brexit debate raged last summer, he posted a photograph of himself in his office in front of a sign reading “Freedom is in peril. Defend it with all your might”. In recent weeks he has appeared on TV to tell viewers the “overwhelming majority” of the rest of the EU has no steel industry (untrue) and that all English people are entitled to Irish passports (also untrue).

 

[Heartofice]

12 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

 

But over the last few weeks the outpost he occupies in the Brexit debate has been gradually abandoned, meaning he has started to be invited on TV, and can finally talk about being a soldier on there. He has talked about why he can’t accept May’s deal (“I was in the army. I wasn’t trained to lose”), about parliament’s indicative votes on Monday (“a coup against the British people”), and about his mild-mannered Brexit opponent Philip Hammond (“my eternal message to you is ‘up yours!’”). Last night, after a narrow Commons vote to delay Brexit, he briefly graduated from corporal to deity: “Forgive them father, for they know not what they do”.

Thing is, as stupid as all this might sound to us, sitting on an internet forum based on a series of Fantasy novels, that language appeals to a lot of people. Its Trumpian in its overblown statements and appeals to low brow commentary. I wouldn't underestimate it. 
 

Francois became a bit of a Leaver celeb after a staring contest with uber-liberal Will Self (who's books I used to obsessively collect). Francois is an embarrassment in a lot of ways, but him saying 'up yours' to Hammond is only going to make him more popular.

[Mosi Mynn]

34 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Francois became a bit of a Leaver celeb after a staring contest with uber-liberal Will Self (who's books I used to obsessively collect). Francois is an embarrassment in a lot of ways, but him saying 'up yours' to Hammond is only going to make him more popular.

I am far from a Will Self fan, but I watched that exchange and Francois was so completely wrong.  Will Self opined that all racists voted for Brexit, and Francois seemed incapable of hearing anything but "Everyone who voted for Brexit is racist".  And then they proceeded to glare at each other.  It was excruciating.

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I am far from a Will Self fan, but I watched that exchange and Francois was so completely wrong.  Will Self opined that all racists voted for Brexit, and Francois seemed incapable of hearing anything but "Everyone who voted for Brexit is racist".  And then they proceeded to glare at each other.  It was excruciating.

Self was still implying that Brexit was an inherently racist endeavour, and I'm pretty sure that is what he believes. But you are correct, Francois twisted the whole thing around and blew it up.. but it caused a bit of a media storm and probably emboldened quite a few Leave voters at the same time. Thats kind of my point. 

[Mosi Mynn]

1 minute ago, Heartofice said:

Self was still implying that Brexit was an inherently racist endeavour, and I'm pretty sure that is what he believes. But you are correct, Francois twisted the whole thing around and blew it up.. but it caused a bit of a media storm and probably emboldened quite a few Leave voters at the same time. Thats kind of my point. 

I don't think Self was implying that.  It makes me very uncomfortable to agree with Self on anything!  But I do in this case.  Not everyone who voted for Brexit is racist, but I suspect all racists who voted did vote for Brexit.  Self did not argue with Francois, just insisted that Francois knew what he meant.  Which he probably did. 

It's like Brexiteer politicians (and the BBC for a short time!) misrepresenting Tusk's "special place in hell" comment.  

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I don't think Self was implying that.  It makes me very uncomfortable to agree with Self on anything!  But I do in this case.  Not everyone who voted for Brexit is racist, but I suspect all racists who voted did vote for Brexit.  

 

It's something that often gets said sneeringly (on here quite a bit too), and the implication is that Brexit is born out of racism, its just a way of saying it without.. actually saying it. If someone genuinely believes that then ok, I think they are pretty incorrect, but at least come out and say it. I don't see the value in that statement other than to allude to something else.