Dorne Predictions

[Aurane]

What do you think will happen with Dorne over the duration of the next two books? I subscribe to the idea that Arianne will be betrothed to fAegon, but I'm unsure what role they'll play after that. I'm curious to see what you guys think.

[Euron III Greyjoy]

I feel like Aegon would want to keep himself open for Daenerys, since she has actual dragons. Even if he doesn't I imagine his advisers would strongly recommend that he does. Unless he is stupid enough to play Aegon the Conqueror, and try taking two wives. 

[divica]

2 hours ago, Euron III Greyjoy said:

I feel like Aegon would want to keep himself open for Daenerys, since she has actual dragons. Even if he doesn't I imagine his advisers would strongly recommend that he does. Unless he is stupid enough to play Aegon the Conqueror, and try taking two wives. 

I don t think he will wait. First, it is possible that he will learn that danny is already married. Then if he is sucessfull he will start believing he doesn t need danny to get the IT. After all we know that Aegon is prideful.

Then we have arianne's motivations and ambitions. I don t see her wanting to commit dorne to such a war of they don t have a LOT  to gain and some seats in the small council might not be enough when she can simply marry Aegon and be queen. Don t Forget that with her dorne would help Aegon immediatly while nobody knows when danny would arrive to westeros or if she would agree to marrying him. It sounds slightly insane to stay single so that some day in the future danny might arrive in westeros, be single and want to marry him...

And finally, if Aegon is capable if getting the IT if he marries arianne why would anyone think that if danny comes she would be his enemy? They are familly and Aegon might be the rightfull ruller acording to the law… 

ps I am ignoring all arguments that he isn t the real Aegon or that danny might not believe he is a targ. I don t think we have any indication that Aegon thinks he has to prove who he is to other people.

[Euron III Greyjoy]

2 minutes ago, divica said:

I don t think he will wait. First, it is possible that he will learn that danny is already married. Then if he is sucessfull he will start believing he doesn t need danny to get the IT. After all we know that Aegon is prideful.

Then we have arianne's motivations and ambitions. I don t see her wanting to commit dorne to such a war of they don t have a LOT  to gain and some seats in the small council might not be enough when she can simply marry Aegon and be queen. Don t Forget that with her dorne would help Aegon immediatly while nobody knows when danny would arrive to westeros or if she would agree to marrying him. It sounds slightly insane to stay single so that some day in the future danny might arrive in westeros, be single and want to marry him...

And finally, if Aegon is capable if getting the IT if he marries arianne why would anyone think that if danny comes she would be his enemy? They are familly and Aegon might be the rightfull ruller acording to the law… 

ps I am ignoring all arguments that he isn t the real Aegon or that danny might not believe he is a targ. I don t think we have any indication that Aegon thinks he has to prove who he is to other people.

I guess so. I know that alot of people don't really like the Aegon storyline, or at the very least don't like the fact he was introduced so late in the game, but I actually really like that story arc. I really wouldn't mind if he ended up the King at the end of the books. Sure he's a bit naive and has a bit of a temper, but he is still young, and most Targaryens have a temper. If what Varys said was true, he has been raised his whole life to be a perfect King. Plus is the Blackfyre theory is true, then it would show just how insignificant claims truly are, even if no-one ever finds out he isn't the true Aegon. Actually fuck it, just have him be some random boy from Lys, that would be even better. 

[divica]

1 minute ago, Euron III Greyjoy said:

I guess so. I know that alot of people don't really like the Aegon storyline, or at the very least don't like the fact he was introduced so late in the game, but I actually really like that story arc. I really wouldn't mind if he ended up the King at the end of the books. Sure he's a bit naive and has a bit of a temper, but he is still young, and most Targaryens have a temper. If what Varys said was true, he has been raised his whole life to be a perfect King. Plus is the Blackfyre theory is true, then it would show just how insignificant claims truly are, even if no-one ever finds out he isn't the true Aegon. Actually fuck it, just have him be some random boy from Lys, that would be even better. 

I think the problem with Aegon is that he should have been introduced in feast. Like beguining the second arc of the series with his introduction. 

And I like the blackfyre theory a lot. It would connect several elements of the history of westeros perfectly and justify all the focus that grrm has been giving to the targ history in recent years.

On the other hand, if he is a nobody then it would be varys scheming to prove that a nobody can rise and be better at rulling than nobles. While this is an interesting theme for modern days in asoiaf world I think the blackfyre theory is a more interesting. And we already have a nobody (LF) trying to rise over the nobility...

[Euron III Greyjoy]

27 minutes ago, divica said:

I think the problem with Aegon is that he should have been introduced in feast. Like beguining the second arc of the series with his introduction. 

For the most part doesn't AFfC and ADwD happen at the same time though?

 

28 minutes ago, divica said:

And I like the blackfyre theory a lot. It would connect several elements of the history of westeros perfectly and justify all the focus that grrm has been giving to the targ history in recent years.

On the other hand, if he is a nobody then it would be varys scheming to prove that a nobody can rise and be better at rulling than nobles. While this is an interesting theme for modern days in asoiaf world I think the blackfyre theory is a more interesting. And we already have a nobody (LF) trying to rise over the nobility...

You're right, the Blackfyre theory is definitely better, at least in my opinion. The Blackfyre Rebellions, and what led up to them are some of my favourite bits of history to read about, and I cant wait to read about it in more detail in Fire and Blood Volume 2. Though there is something satisfying about this nobody sitting on the Iron Throne and ruling over all these pompous Lords who think they are better then all the lowborn nobodies out there. 

[Vaith]

The Blackfyre theory is definitely credible to me. I think Aegon works as a rival of Daenerys, and also as a sort of deconstruction of the "perfect king" -- like, you know, raising this boy who thinks he is heir to the Seven Kingdoms is still going to have problems even if he can wash his own socks. Dany is the one who has been forced to struggle, hatch her own dragons, carve out her own realms, so their conflict's inevitable -- Teora Toland's dragon dreams, the "mummer's dragon" prophecy, etc.

Anyway, as for Dorne, there are certainly some reasons why the Aegon/Arianne stuff is not concrete.

1. Arianne doesn't want to be Queen of Westeros! This would most likely mean that she would have to, yet again, give up her claim to Sunspear to essentially be the host of balls in King's Landing and likely looked down upon for being Dornish in the same way Mariah and Elia Martell were by the lords or by Aerys. She hates the feast planning that Doran makes her do -- and it's obvious she wants to be his heir most of all, to sit the throne of Nymeria in her own right rather than be hitched to the guy on the Iron Throne. Since correspondence is going to be tricky from now on, Arianne's probably going to have a say in this, and I don't think she'd want a marriage instead of an alliance where the heir to Sunspear supports the King of the Iron Throne.
2. Aegon finds out about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr ... to be honest, I guess Arianne could tell him that Quentyn and Dany is going to be a thing in her mind? But, I don't know. It seems like truthful, credible communication across the Narrow Sea and half of Essos isn't that likely, and Aegon would only do so if 100% sure.
3. Arianne isn't 100% on the Aegon story. She strikes me as perceptive, and has many doubts about the story. Her simply going is likely to get her tangled up, but I don't see the motivation for House Martell and Targaryen right now.

Don't get me wrong, it's not impossible... just not certain. However, I think there is a lot of tragic foreshadowing in the TWOW sample chapters about death and the like, so who knows. If Aegon allies with the Martells, will Dany attack Sunspear? Maybe. I do like the theory where Sarella Sand becomes Princess of Dorne in the end, with her being inspired to learn every day -- and GRRM does love his bookish characters. 

[Crona]

I believe that Arianne will side with Aegon temporally to get rid of the Lannisters. She may need to marry someone from the Reach, there are plenty of second sons and cousins. However, when Dany lands both her and Tyrion will conspire to start the Dance of the Dragons. Whoever ends up winning they will swear allegiance and that person will have to go up North to deal with the White Walkers (most likely Dany) and end up dying. Leaving Arianne, Tyrion and probably Willas to rule the South.

[Karneol]

12 hours ago, Aurane said:

What do you think will happen with Dorne over the duration of the next two books?

I think Dorne will be like the Vale. Ther will be no real war in Dorne but still the ruling family is going to suffer:

Doran brings himself in danger especially with an Arianne and probably fAegon marriage.

Ariannes trip to the stormlands is more dangerous than she thinks. Her chances for death will increase faster if she finds out about the Blackfyre thing and will not be okay with it. Same will happen with Elia.

I dont know how skilled Obara is so I would give her a 50% survival chance against Darkstar.

Trystane, Tyene and Nymeria are very likely to die in KL. Both are representing groups which Cersei cant stand and after Kevans death she has free hand to kill them all.

Sarellas life expectations are sinking the more the IB are coming. Even if shes surving her future as Princess of Dorne or Lady Sand is questionable when shes contineuing her studies.

The younger Sandsnakes have better chances but they could be used for plotting (mayhaps against Doran himself). Doran had a good reason to confine them in the WG.

[Impbread]

I predict the dorne plot will bore me to tears but I will dutifully man up and keep reading because I love the books.

[nyser1]

House Martell's quest for vengeance is their downfall. The immediate Martell family dies.

[chrisdaw]

Arianne marries/betrothed to Aegon. Possibly Dorne comes to the aid of the Tyrells against the Ironborn.

Arya may kill and take the identity of Nymeria so that she can attend and influence Aegon's small council.

They get sucked into the Dance on Aegon's side against Dany. Aegon dies and Arianne becomes Dany's hostage in KL, continuing the revenge theme whilst hostage Arianne plots against Dany for killing her lover and husband. Fittingly she'll succeed in stealing Dany's lover (and maybe husband) from her, Euron.

Trystane will probably live to rule Dorne in the end.

[Impbread]

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

House Martell's quest for vengeance is their downfall. The immediate Martell family dies.

I agree people who are always looking for vengeance seems to only backfire.

[BlackLightning]

On 4/6/2019 at 12:03 AM, Aurane said:

What do you think will happen with Dorne over the duration of the next two books? I subscribe to the idea that Arianne will be betrothed to fAegon, but I'm unsure what role they'll play after that. I'm curious to see what you guys think.

Be careful. A lot of people here hate all things pertaining Dorne (except Oberyn for whatever reason) and would see you as a pathetic loser for entertaining the Dornish theater.

On a more serious note though, Dorne is the home of a lot of secrets and mysteries that have yet to be solved. The most important mystery of them all revolves around Ned Stark and the time he spent in Dorne at the Tower of Joy and then at Starfall.

There's also this ongoing motif in the series about how it never snows in Dorne.

Dorne did absolutely no fighting during the War of the Five Kings and so they lost no men. Every other region (except for the Vale which is like Dorne) has experienced bloodshed and anguish from the war...some more than others. The Dornishmen are fresh and ready for battle. Daenerys and Aegon are not going to be getting along for long (if at all) and Daenerys needs something to fight.

Dorne also has a long, interesting history with the Targaryen family. Daenerys bears the name of another Daenerys who married into the Martell family and helped bring Dorne into the realm of the Seven Kingdoms. That Daenerys also provided the inspiration for the creation of the Water Gardens and also did much to blur the line between the highborn and the lowborn--at least in Dorne. 

Plus, this whole story is based off of medieval Europe. What is medieval Europe without African Muslims (aka non-Western Europeans) controlling large portions of southern Europe.

If this whole story really is a song of ice and fire, Dorne is the fire to the North's ice.

[BlackLightning]

On 4/6/2019 at 6:28 AM, Euron III Greyjoy said:

I feel like Aegon would want to keep himself open for Daenerys, since she has actual dragons. Even if he doesn't I imagine his advisers would strongly recommend that he does. Unless he is stupid enough to play Aegon the Conqueror, and try taking two wives. 

I think he'll try it.

[Lady Isis]

On 4/8/2019 at 8:30 AM, nyser1 said:

House Martell's quest for vengeance is their downfall. The immediate Martell family dies.

Yep... I could see House Martell being wiped out and the Yornwoods taking over.

[Vaith]

11 minutes ago, Lady Isis said:

Yep... I could see House Martell being wiped out and the Yornwoods taking over.

I don't know about that. Despite the Yronwoods being rather influential bannermen (similar to the role of the Royces under the Arryns), they don't have a ton of lords on their side who'd support their claim to Dorne that's laid dormant for thousands of years. The Fowlers, for example, are famously pro-Martell and anti-Yronwood, and we have no inclination that the Daynes or other houses would tend to support them.

If all of Doran's children die, I think the lords are more likely to accept the ascension of one of Oberyn's surviving daughters, or the cadet branches (Manfrey's) 

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 4/6/2019 at 9:27 AM, divica said:

I think the problem with Aegon is that he should have been introduced in feast. Like beguining the second arc of the series with his introduction. 

And I like the blackfyre theory a lot. It would connect several elements of the history of westeros perfectly and justify all the focus that grrm has been giving to the targ history in recent years.

On the other hand, if he is a nobody then it would be varys scheming to prove that a nobody can rise and be better at rulling than nobles. While this is an interesting theme for modern days in asoiaf world I think the blackfyre theory is a more interesting. And we already have a nobody (LF) trying to rise over the nobility...

Most of the people who have a problem with the Aegon storyline are the supporters of Jon Snow.  Aegon was introduced late because GM must have wanted somebody to fill the void in the story after Jon's death.  In other words, the boy to pair up with Daenerys and become her consort in the west. 

On 4/6/2019 at 12:03 AM, Aurane said:

What do you think will happen with Dorne over the duration of the next two books? I subscribe to the idea that Arianne will be betrothed to fAegon, but I'm unsure what role they'll play after that. I'm curious to see what you guys think.

In broad terms, Dorne can be the only unfrozen part of Westeros.  It is also the gateway to the Stepstones, the land bridge to Essos.  The Dornish will become important when the middle and northern part of the continent goes into freeze mode.  Every refugee who doesn't have a seaworthy boat will have to pass through Dorne to escape the weather shift. 

Dorne itself will be fine, but the Martells are not going to survive their war with the Lannisters.  A new family will take up when they get defeated.  Cersei and Jaime are not forgiving.  There won't be a Martell left.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

18 minutes ago, Lady Isis said:

Yep... I could see House Martell being wiped out and the Yornwoods taking over.

Arch has already sworn himself to Queen Daenerys. 

[Vaith]

9 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Most of the people who have a problem with the Aegon storyline are the supporters of Jon Snow.  Aegon was introduced late because GM must have wanted somebody to fill the void in the story after Jon's death.  In other words, the boy to pair up with Daenerys and become her consort in the west. 

I don't think an Aegon/Dany match is viable, to be honest. I like the story, but I think it's heading in a different direction, open conflict between Aegon and Dany that's going to result in the latter being the victor, but at a very heavy cost, and make her take on the role of the vanquisher of the Others (and meet Jon in the north)

There's a lot of hints building up to the "second dance." In the Winds of Winter: 

Spoiler

 

Teora gave a tiny nod, chin trembling. "They were dancing. In my dream. And everywhere the dragons danced the people died."

I don't think a Dany and Aegon match is viable. Neither of them will truly want to just settle for being the sheer consort of another. Both want to be the only one allowed to sit the Iron Throne. 

The point of his introduction is, I guess you could say a vehicle for Dany's larger role in the story.

9 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

In broad terms, Dorne can be the only unfrozen part of Westeros.  It is also the gateway to the Stepstones, the land bridge to Essos.  The Dornish will become important when the middle and northern part of the continent goes into freeze mode.  Every refugee who doesn't have a seaworthy boat will have to pass through Dorne to escape the weather shift. 

I don't disagree, but the southern parts of the Reach are on the same latitude as much of Dorne. The Honeywine and the area around Oldtown can fare just as well as the area around Starfall. I think they are safe, but if a magic winter comes to Westeros, it'll depend on what happens. It's not like frozen deserts aren't a thing geographically.

9 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Dorne itself will be fine, but the Martells are not going to survive their war with the Lannisters.  A new family will take up when they get defeated.  Cersei and Jaime are not forgiving.  There won't be a Martell left.

Cersei and Jaime will have their own house crumbling down before they get a chance to do anything. The Lannisters are not in a good spot at the end of the FeastDance "act", and their Trystane murder plan has been discovered. I don't see the room for a successful invasion of Dorne and the slaughtering of every single Martell, especially so when there are family members in other parts of Westeros, such as Sarella.