Dorne Predictions

[Plain, Simple Tailor]

I just want the book to come out, man. 

[SeanF]

On 4/6/2019 at 5:03 AM, Aurane said:

What do you think will happen with Dorne over the duration of the next two books? I subscribe to the idea that Arianne will be betrothed to fAegon, but I'm unsure what role they'll play after that. I'm curious to see what you guys think.

I think that Arianne's fate is foreshadowed by her own thought:- 

"She (Nymeria) burned as bright as any man and so shall I."

Her sample chapters from TWOW show her to be both very ambitious, and at the same time, resentful towards Daenerys for (as she sees it) denying her the chance to become Queen.  I think she will have a brief period of glory, as she marries and reigns with Aegon, before she falls victim to Daenerys' invasion.  

She has also compared herself to Rhaenyra, and we know her Rhaenyra's story ended.

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

I think that Arianne's fate is foreshadowed by her own thought:- 

"She (Nymeria) burned as bright as any man and so shall I."

Her sample chapters from TWOW show her to be both very ambitious, and at the same time, resentful towards Daenerys for (as she sees it) denying her the chance to become Queen.  I think she will have a brief period of glory, as she marries and reigns with Aegon, before she falls victim to Daenerys' invasion.  

She has also compared herself to Rhaenyra, and we know her Rhaenyra's story ended.

Arrianne is a player who isn't very good at the game.  I don't imagine her story will end well.  But Cersei will get to her before Daenerys does.  It isn't that Cersei is smarter than Arrianne but the older gal plays the game better.  She sure beat Ned Stark.  

[Crona]

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

I think that Arianne's fate is foreshadowed by her own thought:- 

"She (Nymeria) burned as bright as any man and so shall I."

Her sample chapters from TWOW show her to be both very ambitious, and at the same time, resentful towards Daenerys for (as she sees it) denying her the chance to become Queen.  I think she will have a brief period of glory, as she marries and reigns with Aegon, before she falls victim to Daenerys' invasion.  

She has also compared herself to Rhaenyra, and we know her Rhaenyra's story ended.

I don’t remember Arianne wanting to be queen. She wanted to have her seat in Dorne and Rhaenyra was was the rightful heir and her brother has usurped her but this is for the seat of Dorne, not the iron throne. She has doubts of Dany because she doesn’t really know her and only knows that her husband kills Vis, she doesn’t know he threatened her child. I don’t think she has any strong feelings against Dany. I haven’t read the chapter in a while so I may be mistaken.

What would Dany gain from killing Arianne? She can claim Aegon was her cousin and contacted them first. She has a legitimate reason for following Aegon. Killing Arianne will cause Dorne to have open war with her and Dany would want to minimize regions against her if she wants to reign.

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

On 4/6/2019 at 12:03 AM, Aurane said:

What do you think will happen with Dorne over the duration of the next two books? I subscribe to the idea that Arianne will be betrothed to fAegon, but I'm unsure what role they'll play after that. I'm curious to see what you guys think.

Dorne will be ripped apart and the Martells will be ousted.  Arianne will drag Aegon into her scheming and plotting.  Both of which can and will get both of them killed.  Elia Sand is the hope for the Martells.  Darkstar is the wildcard.

[Rose of Red Lake]

I think the author has affection for Dorne and its people. He's given them some important traits: imperialist resistance, gender equality, taking care of veterans, addressing domestic violence, destigmatizing bastardardy. Dorne is also poor and inhospitable like the North and the people live there have grit and determination. Nymeria also has a powerful refugee story too. This makes me think that whatever happens to Dorne, it will be important, and we'll need a POV to see it all the way to the end. That's why I think Arianne lives. Structurally, her storyline will have an arc and I think it isn't to just become consort, a queen, or to hand Aegon Dorne so easily. Dorne is necessary for the story to come full circle to revolt against (all) Targaryens again and we really need a POV to witness (or even instigate) that. 

[Only 89 selfies today]

On 4/6/2019 at 12:03 AM, Aurane said:

What do you think will happen with Dorne over the duration of the next two books? I subscribe to the idea that Arianne will be betrothed to fAegon, but I'm unsure what role they'll play after that. I'm curious to see what you guys think.

Doran and the sand snakes have to go if Dorne is to have a future.  GRRM is hard on those who take the road to revenge.  Look at all the divisive people in the story.  The nobles who put themselves and their families over the welfare of their smallfolk have been punished.  Dorne and the North both have strong nationalists, for lack of a better word, sentiments.  That's not a good thing.  It's the people who want to keep the realm together who are the good guys.  

Arianne will see this fAegon as her ticket to power.  The inexperienced boy will fall easily.  She won't be able to give him Dorne but she can throw the Martells behind him.  Civil war will follow.  

[Vaith]

14 hours ago, SeanF said:

Her sample chapters from TWOW show her to be both very ambitious, and at the same time, resentful towards Daenerys for (as she sees it) denying her the chance to become Queen.  I think she will have a brief period of glory, as she marries and reigns with Aegon, before she falls victim to Daenerys' invasion.  

I don't think Arianne wants to be queen at all. Her entire storyline in AFFC is about wanting to be Doran's heir first and foremost, and learning she was disinherited to be queen doesn't change that. 

Being the wife of the man on the Iron Throne is pretty small potatoes to what she can inherit: being ruler of Dorne in her own right gives her far more personal power than a simple consort who would probably mostly be managing the affairs of the ladies at court. She'd also be in a far more sexist environment, and, as shown through Aerys's disdain for Rhaenys's Dornish features and the Blackfyre supporter's envy of Mariah's supposed influence, an environment far more likely to hold certain prejudices against her.

I mean, the envy isn't very strong in TWOW:

Spoiler

That accounts for one brother, thought Arianne, but where is Quentyn, if not with the griffin? Had he wed his dragon queen? King Quentyn. It still sounded silly. This new Daenerys Targaryen was younger than Arianne by half a dozen years. What would a maid that age want with her dull, bookish brother? Young girls dreamed of dashing knights with wicked smiles, not solemn boys who always did their duty. She will want Dorne, though. If she hopes to sit the Iron Throne, she must have Sunspear. If Quentyn was the price for that, this dragon queen would pay it. What if she was at Griffin's Roost with Connington, and all this about another Targaryen was just some sort of subtle ruse? Her brother could well be with her. King Quentyn. Will I have to kneel to him?

Thinking her brother's a bit awkward and that he might be consort of Westeros doesn't seem like she's filled with jealousy, not when everything in her chapters is about her duty to her father. Indeed, it also shows she might not be attracted to Aegon at all: he, like Quentyn, is a boy who does his duty, not a dashing knight like Darkstar or Daemon Sand. And she shows a constant scepticism about the origins of Young Griff. 

4 hours ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

Doran and the sand snakes have to go if Dorne is to have a future.  GRRM is hard on those who take the road to revenge.  Look at all the divisive people in the story.  The nobles who put themselves and their families over the welfare of their smallfolk have been punished.  Dorne and the North both have strong nationalists, for lack of a better word, sentiments.  That's not a good thing.  It's the people who want to keep the realm together who are the good guys.  

Arianne will see this fAegon as her ticket to power.  The inexperienced boy will fall easily.  She won't be able to give him Dorne but she can throw the Martells behind him.  Civil war will follow.  

Hm? In what sense of the word are the Lannisters and co. the good guys of the story?

Nationalism being insular does not apply to a medieval world where the concept of the nation-state barely exists. Well into the early modern period, this was seen as a rather forward-thinking thing, as people were grouped by common culture rather than the view of a feudal lord. 

There is no way to suggest that the Starks and Martells' desire for their own sort of self-determination is anything bad. Japes about green southron knights or bland northron food are nothing compared to the sheer disdain the Lannisters have for the North and Dorne: they're not seeking some grand cosmopolitan society of Westeros, they're looking for power, and it's mostly a good thing that the North and Dorne are resisting that.

[SeanF]

6 minutes ago, Vaith said:

I don't think Arianne wants to be queen at all. Her entire storyline in AFFC is about wanting to be Doran's heir first and foremost, and learning she was disinherited to be queen doesn't change that. 

Being the wife of the man on the Iron Throne is pretty small potatoes to what she can inherit: being ruler of Dorne in her own right gives her far more personal power than a simple consort who would probably mostly be managing the affairs of the ladies at court. She'd also be in a far more sexist environment, and, as shown through Aerys's disdain for Rhaenys's Dornish features and the Blackfyre supporter's envy of Mariah's supposed influence, an environment far more likely to hold certain prejudices against her.

I mean, the envy isn't very strong in TWOW:

  Hide contents

That accounts for one brother, thought Arianne, but where is Quentyn, if not with the griffin? Had he wed his dragon queen? King Quentyn. It still sounded silly. This new Daenerys Targaryen was younger than Arianne by half a dozen years. What would a maid that age want with her dull, bookish brother? Young girls dreamed of dashing knights with wicked smiles, not solemn boys who always did their duty. She will want Dorne, though. If she hopes to sit the Iron Throne, she must have Sunspear. If Quentyn was the price for that, this dragon queen would pay it. What if she was at Griffin's Roost with Connington, and all this about another Targaryen was just some sort of subtle ruse? Her brother could well be with her. King Quentyn. Will I have to kneel to him?

Thinking her brother's a bit awkward and that he might be consort of Westeros doesn't seem like she's filled with jealousy, not when everything in her chapters is about her duty to her father. Indeed, it also shows she might not be attracted to Aegon at all: he, like Quentyn, is a boy who does his duty, not a dashing knight like Darkstar or Daemon Sand. And she shows a constant scepticism about the origins of Young Griff. 

Hm? In what sense of the word are the Lannisters and co. the good guys of the story?

Nationalism being insular does not apply to a medieval world where the concept of the nation-state barely exists. Well into the early modern period, this was seen as a rather forward-thinking thing, as people were grouped by common culture rather than the view of a feudal lord. 

There is no way to suggest that the Starks and Martells' desire for their own sort of self-determination is anything bad. Japes about green southron knights or bland northron food are nothing compared to the sheer disdain the Lannisters have for the North and Dorne: they're not seeking some grand cosmopolitan society of Westeros, they're looking for power, and it's mostly a good thing that the North and Dorne are resisting that.

Perhaps I'm reading too much into her thoughts, but as I see it:-

1. She hopes Quentyn will never return from his mission

2. She feels a great deal of guilt about hoping this

3. She projects her own feelings towards her brother on to Daenerys, and her relationship with her brother

4. She concludes that Daenerys was willing to connive in her brother's murder because he stood in the way of her (Daenerys') ambition to be Queen

5. She sees Daenerys as a rival.

Being Queen consort is less good than being ruling Princess of Dorne.  But, if she were to marry Aegon, and bring an army with her, she could be both.

[SeanF]

10 hours ago, Crona said:

I don’t remember Arianne wanting to be queen. She wanted to have her seat in Dorne and Rhaenyra was was the rightful heir and her brother has usurped her but this is for the seat of Dorne, not the iron throne. She has doubts of Dany because she doesn’t really know her and only knows that her husband kills Vis, she doesn’t know he threatened her child. I don’t think she has any strong feelings against Dany. I haven’t read the chapter in a while so I may be mistaken.

What would Dany gain from killing Arianne? She can claim Aegon was her cousin and contacted them first. She has a legitimate reason for following Aegon. Killing Arianne will cause Dorne to have open war with her and Dany would want to minimize regions against her if she wants to reign.

If, as I expect, Arianne marries Aegon, then she and Dany will be enemies.

[Vaith]

15 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Perhaps I'm reading too much into her thoughts, but as I see it:-

1. She hopes Quentyn will never return from his mission

2. She feels a great deal of guilt about hoping this

3. She projects her own feelings towards her brother on to Daenerys, and her relationship with her brother

4. She concludes that Daenerys was willing to connive in her brother's murder because he stood in the way of her (Daenerys') ambition to be Queen

5. She sees Daenerys as a rival.

Being Queen consort is less good than being ruling Princess of Dorne.  But, if she were to marry Aegon, and bring an army with her, she could be both.

It would be difficult for her to be both, though. From TWOIAF we learn that Mariah Martell was the "eldest child" of the Prince of Dorne, and presumably was disinherited for her brother Prince Maron. And Doran was genuinely planning to disinherit Arianne so she could be Viserys's queen, while Quentyn would inherit.

Through a marriage to Aegon she risks ending the legacy of Mors and Nymeria by letting Dorne be controlled by another dynasty. If her firstborn child was a son and she remained Princess of Dorne, it would likely be that the title Prince of Dorne becomes just a minor title of future monarchs of the Iron Throne with Dorne becoming even more dependent on the crown as an institution.

[Lady Anna]

10 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I think the author has affection for Dorne and its people. He's given them some important traits: imperialist resistance, gender equality, taking care of veterans, addressing domestic violence, destigmatizing bastardardy. Dorne is also poor and inhospitable like the North and the people live there have grit and determination. Nymeria also has a powerful refugee story too. This makes me think that whatever happens to Dorne, it will be important, and we'll need a POV to see it all the way to the end. That's why I think Arianne lives. Structurally, her storyline will have an arc and I think it isn't to just become consort, a queen, or to hand Aegon Dorne so easily. Dorne is necessary for the story to come full circle to revolt against (all) Targaryens again and we really need a POV to witness (or even instigate) that. 

Tbh I agree. Anyway their quest for revenge (and the winter, and a future war, etc) may hurt the Martells but I seriously doubt they will be ''losers''* when this story ends (also the Starks). Besides, the Lannisters do a nice job at self-destruction. It's crazy to me that people think the Martells will be extinguished. Regarding their probable alliance with Aegon there's so many possibilities that I can't reach a conclusion. Adding to this I don't think the relationship between Aegon and Daenerys (and Jon) will be as black and white as some people think (ie them reenacting Aegon and Rhaenyra) regardless of him being a Blackfyre.

* losers in the political sense. no need to say that at the end of this story people will be suffering and Westeros will be ravaged (but, a dream of spring).

[Lady Anna]

Sorry double post.

[Crona]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

If, as I expect, Arianne marries Aegon, then she and Dany will be enemies.

If she marries or is already committed to the alliance the she will be simply a queen consort or a sworn house. Hardly worth the effort to kill as they are simply following their leader. Being supporters of an opposing house does not mean a death sentence especially for someone who does not take up arms. If Dany wants allegiance she would demand Dorne to kneel and they will be bound by their oath, which is a better solution than killing their princess and burning their lands.

[SeanF]

4 hours ago, Vaith said:

It would be difficult for her to be both, though. From TWOIAF we learn that Mariah Martell was the "eldest child" of the Prince of Dorne, and presumably was disinherited for her brother Prince Maron. And Doran was genuinely planning to disinherit Arianne so she could be Viserys's queen, while Quentyn would inherit.

Through a marriage to Aegon she risks ending the legacy of Mors and Nymeria by letting Dorne be controlled by another dynasty. If her firstborn child was a son and she remained Princess of Dorne, it would likely be that the title Prince of Dorne becomes just a minor title of future monarchs of the Iron Throne with Dorne becoming even more dependent on the crown as an institution.

There's nothing that would require her to give up Dorne if she was also Queen. Aegon needs allies.  She's in a position to set terms.

[Vaith]

13 minutes ago, SeanF said:

There's nothing that would require her to give up Dorne if she was also Queen. Aegon needs allies.  She's in a position to set terms.

But GRRM has certainly established a precedent thus far where it's exceedingly rare for two heads of houses to marry each other if it's not a blatant land grab. I'm not saying it's impossible, it just looks a little contradictory given what we know about such situations in the past, with the plans for Arianne and what actually happened with Mariah. 

But if Arianne was queen, I don't see the benefit for her, to be honest. Unless she wants to spend a lot of time away from her husband, she's going to have to spend a lot of time in the Iron Throne having to conceive heirs -- and who knows what the long term implications could be of these terms? It could still pave the way for the Targaryens personally ruling Dorne in perpetuity after Arianne's death. From her chapters, she cares a lot about preserving her legacy as a Martell heir, and I think such an act has a lot of potential to jeopardise this.

Basically, what's in it for her being the party planner of King's Landing a lot more than being the Princess of Dorne, and why can't she just support Aegon for being her alleged cousin instead of having to marry him as well?

[SeanF]

52 minutes ago, Vaith said:

But GRRM has certainly established a precedent thus far where it's exceedingly rare for two heads of houses to marry each other if it's not a blatant land grab. I'm not saying it's impossible, it just looks a little contradictory given what we know about such situations in the past, with the plans for Arianne and what actually happened with Mariah. 

But if Arianne was queen, I don't see the benefit for her, to be honest. Unless she wants to spend a lot of time away from her husband, she's going to have to spend a lot of time in the Iron Throne having to conceive heirs -- and who knows what the long term implications could be of these terms? It could still pave the way for the Targaryens personally ruling Dorne in perpetuity after Arianne's death. From her chapters, she cares a lot about preserving her legacy as a Martell heir, and I think such an act has a lot of potential to jeopardise this.

Basically, what's in it for her being the party planner of King's Landing a lot more than being the Princess of Dorne, and why can't she just support Aegon for being her alleged cousin instead of having to marry him as well?

She has an army.  She could say to Aegon that they rule jointly as King and Queen.  

[Vaith]

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

She has an army.  She could say to Aegon that they rule jointly as King and Queen.  

I don't see her wanting half the Iron Throne. Dorne is what she's aspired to rule all her life, and not everyone wants something bigger and better - Dorne's where her family is, where she can continue their legacy. Not everyone wants that big old metal chair.

Besides, I think she'd know such a claim as co-monarch rather than monarch consort wouldn't go down well. It's not like she has any credible claim, for instance -- Daenerys Targaryen's descendant is kind of meh next to the claimed legitimate heir of Aerys II. It's not going to be the equivalent of Mary II and William III in Britain, for instance. And I don't think the lords would treat her with the same level of respect, functionally making her consort in all but name.

She doesn't have an army, she has a retinue of a couple of knights to go with her to come and meet Aegon, and the promise of spears that don't exist. Besides, I think Aegon will take Storm's End, and after that, you can only go up. He won't make such a big compromise to Arianne after he controls a lot of the Stormlands on his own -- and will probably have the Reachlords ruling on the KL small council finding his claim more and more attractive to support.

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, Vaith said:

I don't see her wanting half the Iron Throne. Dorne is what she's aspired to rule all her life, and not everyone wants something bigger and better - Dorne's where her family is, where she can continue their legacy. Not everyone wants that big old metal chair.

Besides, I think she'd know such a claim as co-monarch rather than monarch consort wouldn't go down well. It's not like she has any credible claim, for instance -- Daenerys Targaryen's descendant is kind of meh next to the claimed legitimate heir of Aerys II. It's not going to be the equivalent of Mary II and William III in Britain, for instance. And I don't think the lords would treat her with the same level of respect, functionally making her consort in all but name.

She doesn't have an army, she has a retinue of a couple of knights to go with her to come and meet Aegon, and the promise of spears that don't exist. Besides, I think Aegon will take Storm's End, and after that, you can only go up. He won't make such a big compromise to Arianne after he controls a lot of the Stormlands on his own -- and will probably have the Reachlords ruling on the KL small council finding his claim more and more attractive to support.

She has the army of Drone.  Doran has delegated to her the power to wage war.

[Platypus Rex]

On ‎4‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 12:03 AM, Aurane said:

What do you think will happen with Dorne over the duration of the next two books? I subscribe to the idea that Arianne will be betrothed to fAegon, but I'm unsure what role they'll play after that. I'm curious to see what you guys think.

Arianne will marry fAegon, and then commit suicide after learning that fAegon is really her babyswapped brother Quentyn.

Dorne is where Lyonesse would be, if Westeros is Britain turned backwards.  And Trystane comes from Dorne, just as Tristan came from Lyonesse.  And we all know what happened to Lyonesse.    Dorne, or at least the sandy part, will sink beneath the waves.  And good riddance.