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Paxter

Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

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11 hours ago, Paxter said:

I worry about him being typecast and easily dispatched by the Liberals as a crusty, inner-city lefty. He’s a standard bearer of the Labor left and I don’t see him being able to turn things around for the ALP in Qld, which as 2007 showed is the main Labor pathway to Government. Chalmers by contrast is more conservative and a Queenslander.

So by the looks of it, parties need to be pandering to Qld to win elections.

Not sure I like the prospect of that....

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, karaddin said:

We're city people through and through. I grew up in a semi country area (out in the country but culturally influenced by a lot of well off people that had moved from Sydney) so I know how I feel about smaller areas. Brook feels even more strongly and needs to be in a bigger city. We also derive a lot of emotional support from seeing other queer people around which tends to rely on being a certain size. 

I've seen the comparisons between Sydney and Auckland a lot, but one of the important ones here is that it looks quite similar to Sydney's climate minus 2-3 degrees, so the thinking is after 2 degrees of warming it will be closer to the Sydney climate we like. In what way is Whangarei's better? The issue with other Australian cities is that the ones with a cooler climate (Melb, Adelaide) already have extreme heat worse than inner Sydney during summer which will only get worse and will still be a bit too cold for me in winter. Hobart is too cold. 

Whangarei is significantly better in 2 ways: cost of housing and traffic.

Summer temperatures are largely the same. Whangarei is about a degree warmer in winter on average. Auckland winter average is about 2 deg warmer than Hobart.

Also remember distance is much different in AU and NZ. Whangarei is only 2hrs drive north of Auckland. Not something you'd necessarily do for an evening out, but for any weekend big city fix it's eminently accessible. And if you only want to get to the North Shore of AKL it's even shorter. 

I might be wrong, but I think New Zealand medium cities (Whangarei pop ~75,000 = medium city for NZ) are as queer friendly as the big cities. But I'm not part of the queer community so I can't really comment from experience. I have queer family members, but that's not the same. A city the size of Whangarei has a very different cosmopolitan feel to a same sized city in Australia that isn't a close satellite to one of the big AU cities. Outside of the biggest cities, where AU and NZ are pretty much the same, IMO, NZ is a more socially liberal and accepting country. I would feel personally ashamed if you didn't feel welcome, comfortable and safe in any place in NZ that gets to be called a city; at least in terms of being queer, I can't offer the same assurance about your Aussieness :P

IIRC you are afraid of earthquakes and anything much south of Auckland has an increased earthquake risk. But if you are willing to consider venturing further south Tauranga is also a great option. Very good climate almost double the population of Whangarei, less than 3hrs drive from Auckland. But also close to some of NZ's best features, like lake Taupo, Ruapehu ski fields, thermal hotsprings and spas. Housing costs in Tauranga are high, because people like living there.

Ultimately, I'd suggest you come here and hang out in different places before settling on where you want to end up. I am biased, but Auckland is one of the last places I'd consider living in at least in the North Island. Half of the South Island is out for me because it's just too damned cold in winter, and most of the South Island is too damned white the rest of the year. As the saying goes, if you want to have a white Christmas in New Zealand, go to Christchurch; though it's probably much less true now than it was 30 years ago. Wellington is by far my most preferred city, but I am also happy in small towns, but it is a bit of a climate shock for most Aussies, though there are plenty of you lot who live here reasonably happily. It's also the most well educated and most liberal city. And in terms of "winners" from climate change I think Wellington potentially has the rosiest future. There are the earthquakes though.

btw, if you want to make an earthquake assessment of places in NZ have a look at this: https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/weak just note that the vast majority of quakes aren't felt by anyone.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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13 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Ultimately, I'd suggest you come here and hang out in different places before settling on where you want to end up.

That is almost certainly excellent advice. I had brought up the earthquakes before but its not actually something that scares me, more of a listing off of theoretical threats in different places. At least earth quakes aren't going to get worse from climate change. The commentary on the queer community isn't about fear of homophobia or even desire for the night life (we're boring and don't go out much anyway) - its actually about seeing random strangers that are visibly queer just being together out in the world. Helps me feel that I belong. You can undoubtedly still have a small community in a smaller city, but you're not going to have that same scale of people as we have in our current suburb (and I'm not sure we'll even be able to get that in Auckland so there is that).

I agree with your assessment that NZ is more socially liberal and accepting in general and that's part of the appeal as well.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Skyrazer said:

So by the looks of it, parties need to be pandering to Qld to win elections.

Not sure I like the prospect of that....

I guess there’s a trade-off sometimes between idealogical purity and...winning. The Dems face a similar problem in their upcoming primaries - picking a candidate that will galvanise the base but not let Trump coast to victory in Florida and the mid-west.

ETA: Chalmers not running. So Albo will be the unity candidate with no challengers.

Edited by Paxter

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12 minutes ago, karaddin said:

That is almost certainly excellent advice. I had brought up the earthquakes before but its not actually something that scares me, more of a listing off of theoretical threats in different places. At least earth quakes aren't going to get worse from climate change. The commentary on the queer community isn't about fear of homophobia or even desire for the night life (we're boring and don't go out much anyway) - its actually about seeing random strangers that are visibly queer just being together out in the world. Helps me feel that I belong. You can undoubtedly still have a small community in a smaller city, but you're not going to have that same scale of people as we have in our current suburb (and I'm not sure we'll even be able to get that in Auckland so there is that).

I agree with your assessment that NZ is more socially liberal and accepting in general and that's part of the appeal as well.

You're right, you are not going to see overt public manifestations of queerness in smaller centers to the same extent as in larger centers. But I suspect you'll see it less on a kind of per capita basis in NZ in general. We're generally more reserved here in almost every respect. You're the USA and we're the UK when it comes to being effusive in public settings. You think Americans are loud and brash, we think Australians are.

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1 hour ago, Paxter said:

I guess there’s a trade-off sometimes between idealogical purity and...winning. The Dems face a similar problem in their upcoming primaries - picking a candidate that will galvanise the base but not let Trump coast to victory in Florida and the mid-west.

ETA: Chalmers not running. So Albo will be the unity candidate with no challengers.

I don't think its solely that Qld needs pandering so much as they need to stake out a sincere position and stick to it. Adani is emblematic as a big issue that they tried to play both sides on and as a result they didn't get the votes in Victoria for opposing it, or the votes in Qld for supporting it. They can oppose Adani if they have a clear plan and actually sell voters on why they're opposing it and how they're going to create jobs in relevant fields instead of Adani - which won't actually create jobs anyway. I saw a couple of decent threads covering this broad topic, one from Adam Bandt and one from a former logger from Tassie.

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

You're right, you are not going to see overt public manifestations of queerness in smaller centers to the same extent as in larger centers. But I suspect you'll see it less on a kind of per capita basis in NZ in general. We're generally more reserved here in almost every respect. You're the USA and we're the UK when it comes to being effusive in public settings. You think Americans are loud and brash, we think Australians are.

It doesn't have to be PDA though, just women together, men together, people with queer aesthetics (which isn't even reliable on a case by case basis but contributes to the feeling of belonging). There are plenty of Australians that I consider loud too, but I'm not one of them.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, karaddin said:

I don't think its solely that Qld needs pandering so much as they need to stake out a sincere position and stick to it. Adani is emblematic as a big issue that they tried to play both sides on and as a result they didn't get the votes in Victoria for opposing it, or the votes in Qld for supporting it. They can oppose Adani if they have a clear plan and actually sell voters on why they're opposing it and how they're going to create jobs in relevant fields instead of Adani - which won't actually create jobs anyway. I saw a couple of decent threads covering this broad topic, one from Adam Bandt and one from a former logger from Tassie.

It doesn't have to be PDA though, just women together, men together, people with queer aesthetics (which isn't even reliable on a case by case basis but contributes to the feeling of belonging). There are plenty of Australians that I consider loud too, but I'm not one of them.

If you really are more home bodies than dance until dawn partyers then an inner city place in a city that isn't Auckland might well be your jam. Will be interesting to hear how your journey through Middle Earth goes.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

So by the looks of it, parties need to be pandering to Qld to win elections.

Not sure I like the prospect of that....

QLD happens to have been the battleground the last few elections, but it could just as well be some NSW or Victorian issues next time up. And as mentioned before, Tasmania is a wildly swinging state where more than a few seats are always up for grabs - remember when Howard decided it was okay to do logging in the "old growth forests" and stole traditionally Labor votes.

I suspect the Coalition will try to do at least some surface-level climate-friendly initiatives. It makes sense for them to have some environmental program to point to so that they can't be labelled as coal-loving dinosaurs. I think the way for a conservative to play the climate issue is to frame it as a "We're doing something, but we're not being drastic left-wing job killers". I expect them to roll out at least some tokenistic program to support renewables or somesuch.

Edited by Jeor

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Jeor said:

I suspect the Coalition will try to do at least some surface-level climate-friendly initiatives. It makes sense for them to have some environmental program to point to so that they can't be labelled as coal-loving dinosaurs. I think the way for a conservative to play the climate issue is to frame it as a "We're doing something, but we're not being drastic left-wing job killers". I expect them to roll out at least some tokenistic program to support renewables or somesuch.

The above sums up the Coalition’s current policy. Anything more radical than that will set off the Christensen wing so I wouldn’t expect much more, particularly after MT got rolled on the NEG.

As for Queensland: NSW and Victoria don’t have anywhere near as many marginal seats. So it’s going to be difficult for Labor to find a pathway to victory in either of those in 2022. And winning every seat in Tassie didn’t help Shorten much in 2016.

Edited by Paxter

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The idea that Adam Bandt or some greenie in Tasmania has a better idea than people on the ground in central queensland in regards to jobs and Adani is laughable. During the downturn people were kept on because of the work in the Galilee (including adani, macmines and waratah) was the only thing ticking along. Since then i know people that have jobs because of that work and thats before the basin even has a rail link. Clermont is basically a hub or stop on the way that undoubtedly kept the 2 pubs and petrol station going. If people outside of Queensland, or even central Queensland, really wanted to help, they could get another caravan together for august or september next year. Maybe get Jackie Trad, Steven Miles and Kate Jones involved. That would be fantastic. The arrogance or smugness of telling someone that you know more about their lives and backyard than they do is why the left wing vote has collapsed in Qld. The Qld senate count currently looks like 3 lnp, 1 ON, 1 ALP and 1 Green. 

And its so hypocritical. Stop Adani is fine and dandy if it has no effect on you. The moment someone's life is inconvenienced by environmental action, it quickly becomes less appealing and there's always some excuse. Look at the election. Look at Annastacia Palaszczuk's backflip this week. Some of those emigrating to NZ will be flying by burning avgas which is about as bad as you can get for climate change. They could sail but no, <insert excuse> is more important. Fortunately there is a way we can help. There is a change.org petition to install windfarms in the division of Warringah to help Zali Steggall on her crusade. Please sign and do your part.

 

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13 minutes ago, Squab said:

The arrogance or smugness of telling someone that you know more about their lives and backyard than they do is why the left wing vote has collapsed in Qld. The Qld senate count currently looks like 3 lnp, 1 ON, 1 ALP and 1 Green.

I agree with the essence of that first sentence, which pretty much encapsulates why I think Albanese may find leadership a difficult game.

On the Qld Senate, this will indeed be the first time since prop rep came in that the ALP has fewer than four Queensland Senators in total. They needed to pip Waters of the Greens to maintain their historical four Senators.

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The environment is a really difficult topic and I don't think any party has found the sweet spot yet.

The more drastic environmental plans are, from a scientific point of view, most needed, but they're also the ones most likely to scare off voters. On the other hand, in this day and age doing nothing will also lose you some voters (though not nearly as many). Then there's the regional divide - urban voters generally love climate action but regional voters don't. Yet regional voters probably know the most about climate change on both ends, in terms of drought but also jobs. For urban voters it is generally a theoretical or abstract concept.

Since I think most people generally like climate action so long as it doesn't affect them or their livelihoods, the most pragmatic thing to do for a party that wants power is to think up ways of saying they're doing things that have no impact, which is incredibly cynical but probably a winning ploy.

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For the first time in history, an Aboriginal Australian will be the Minister for Indigenous Affairs. Pleasing to see and about time!

Definitely a better move than ScoMo’s previous appointments in that space.

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Posted (edited)

Yes, not too bad a lineup for the Coalition (given the lack of name recognition and talent they have at their disposal).

Some good roles for women, with two of the most prestigious portfolios being led by women - Linda Reynolds in Defense and Marise Payne in Foreign Affairs. A few more women with Sussan Ley in Environment and Bridget McKenzie in Agriculture, though Melissa Price gets dumped from Cabinet and given an outer ministry instead. I'm not saying the Coalition is anywhere near equity yet but there are some baby steps of progress.

Ken Wyatt in Indigenous Affairs is good. Potentially ominous that Christian Porter combines Attorney-General with Industrial Relations, and as Leader of the House it looks like he's getting a pretty heavy workload. The rest of the core team stays (Frydenberg, Corman, sadly Dutton).

Edited by Jeor

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On 5/18/2019 at 9:16 PM, Paxter said:

Haha. Did I mention I’m moving to Canada in two weeks?

Safe journeys, Pax. It is a lovely warm and welcoming country in my experience. M

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On 5/27/2019 at 12:57 PM, sh_wulff said:

Safe journeys, Pax. It is a lovely warm and welcoming country in my experience. M

Thanks wulffie. I just wish the “warm” bit was literally true!

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The idea that one can deal with climate change painlessly is the biggest barrier to action, along with people's inability to think long term: short term pain, long term gain. Oh my! Jobs will be lost over the next decade because climate change action, and economies may not grow as fast. Yes, that's unfortunate collateral damage. People can't be scared straight because they refuse (for whatever reason) to believe that things can possibly get as bad as they could. Or it can get that bad, but Elon Musk will save us all.

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On 5/24/2019 at 11:05 AM, Squab said:

 They could sail but no, <staying alive> is more important. Fortunately there is a way we can help. There is a change.org petition to install windfarms in the division of Warringah to help Zali Steggall on her crusade. Please sign and do your part.

 

Well, no they couldn't, not the vast majority of people who want to move. If there was a passenger sailing ship service between NZ and Aus I'm sure a lot of environmentally minded people would use it. As is stands there is no regular fossil fuel burning passenger service between NZ and Aus. Have you looked into how many available craft can get a safety rating for commerically sailing people between NZ and Aus? Offer a realistic non-polluting means for moving across a large body of water and you may have a point. Any greeny could hop on a 5 meter yacht and try to make the journey, but death is a very likely outcome before they make landfall.

Besides, if you move to a country where your carbon footprint will be substantially lower, then the carbon cost of your flight to that country will be more than offset by your lower emissions lifestyle. Apparently the NZ carbon emissions per capita is roughly half that of Australia. Per passenger a flight from Sydney to NZ will produce about 200kg of CO2. According to Wikipedia CO2 emissions per capita are 15 tonnes per year in Aus, in NZ it's 7.7 tonnes per year (this will almost entirely be because 80% of our electricity generation is non-carbon emitting). The 200kG of CO2 you use to fly from Aus to NZ is offset after 2 weeks of living in NZ. So, for the sake of being far more likely to arrive in New Zealand alive the marginal carbon cost of flying vs sailing is negligible.

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Good scenes today with Wyatt being sworn in as Minister for Indigenous Affairs in a garment given to him by Nyoongar elders.

I’ll take the wins I can get!

It’s also going to be a game-changer not having Abbott in parliament. Weirdly enough, there’s a chance that the Liberals will govern more from the centre now than under Turnbull (except in respect of environmental policy). 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The idea that one can deal with climate change painlessly is the biggest barrier to action, along with people's inability to think long term: short term pain, long term gain. Oh my! Jobs will be lost over the next decade because climate change action, and economies may not grow as fast. Yes, that's unfortunate collateral damage. People can't be scared straight because they refuse (for whatever reason) to believe that things can possibly get as bad as they could. Or it can get that bad, but Elon Musk will save us all.

I’m honestly more disgusted with those who recognize Climate change to be true and who opt to caution against any real substantive action, than those who deny it all together. The latter honestly could have the excuse of ignorance. If you genuinely recognize it be a literal threat to all of humanity’s ability to live, there really isn’t any good reason not to want every step taken to address it. 

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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