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Paxter

Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

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3 hours ago, karaddin said:

ETA: Forgot what I came here to say which is fuck Kerry-Anne and her bigoted entitled screed. I don't know if it's just that I'm stressed about other things and 4 days into a migraine but that's upset me more than it should

[strong sympathy]

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24 minutes ago, maarsen said:

I don't follow Aussie politics much so who is the non-shit party? 

Hypothetical

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Not sure if the tag line in the twitter post is from the source of the video or the person who posted the tweet.

Quote

The Australien Government has made an ad about Preferential Voting and it’s surprisingly honest and informative.

It is of course not an Australian Govt ad. I'm sure a lot of people around the world like to think Australia is that cool and edgy. But the reality is a wee bit different.

I have a pretty good notion of which party they are pointing at with the Swastika logo. That alone should be a dead giveaway it's not a govt ad.

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Can't open the link here at work.  Was it a reference to an "Honest Govt Ad"?

If so, it's a parody site.

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Posted (edited)

The polling has been remarkably stable across the last month. All the major polling companies are inside 1% of each other the whole time (51/52% Labor , 48/49% Lib tpp). Makes me a little nervous tbh.

Not having to model voter turnout has historically made polling here pretty bloody accurate. Could be a real nail biter.

Edited by Impmk2

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1 hour ago, Impmk2 said:

The polling has been remarkably stable across the last month. All the major polling companies are inside 1% of each other the whole time (51/52% Labor , 48/49% Lib tpp). Makes me a little nervous tbh.

Not having to model voter turnout has historically made polling here pretty bloody accurate. Could be a real nail biter.

To add another degree of difficulty, 3.5 million votes have been pre-cast.  Several pollsters have suggested that they won't be able to call the election at all on Saturday night because those votes will not have been counted.

Anyone planning a "Don's" party should probably organise some alternative entertainment.

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If Labor do win (and I'm pretty sure they will) I'll be interested to see what happens to the Liberal leadership.

I assume Morrison and Frydenberg will stay on, but you never know with Australian backroom politics. One probably just has to hope that Dutton and Abbot lose their seats so they aren't options.

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Must say I don’t like the forced voting concept. It’s kind of a good thing when those who don’t really care about voting get to not have a say in the future of the country. 

Now people who couldn’t be bothered to vote otherwise, are compelled to do so, and rather than vote with insight and forethought they will likely just draw their cross next to the guy who promises to give them more free shit.

So in other words, an inevitable gain for any left leaning party.

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No doubt you are right even though the last 50 years of Australian parliaments have shown the opposite.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

No doubt you are right even though the last 50 years of Australian parliaments have shown the opposite.

Wikipedia says it results in a 7-10 percent gain for Left leaning parties in Australia. So without it Labour would not even be in the running.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Must say I don’t like the forced voting concept. It’s kind of a good thing when those who don’t really care about voting get to not have a say in the future of the country. 

Now people who couldn’t be bothered to vote otherwise, are compelled to do so, and rather than vote with insight and forethought they will likely just draw their cross next to the guy who promises to give them more free shit.

So in other words, an inevitable gain for any left leaning party.

Just because someone decides to vote in a non-compulsory voting system, doesn't necessarily mean they vote with insight and forethought. USA and Trump is a perfect demonstration :lol:.

(unless said voter is a Trump voter I guess)

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12 hours ago, Stubby said:

To add another degree of difficulty, 3.5 million votes have been pre-cast.  Several pollsters have suggested that they won't be able to call the election at all on Saturday night because those votes will not have been counted.

I'm going to go against the trend and say that Antony will continue his trend of early calls and will have called it by 9PM. I think the polls are failing to get an accurate picture of how its going to play out in the seats that are up for grabs.

Indeed. My birthday is in close proximity to his first election so this makes me feel weird.

 And :rolleyes: at the far right American pronouncing that clearly our electoral system is unfair because it results in government slightly less dysfunctional than their own. We've had conservative governments for 14 of the last 20 years, I think they're doing fine. And somehow this glaring "left wing bias" delivers parliament's that are so far behind the country on some social issues they're having to be dragged by their necks.

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10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Wikipedia says it results in a 7-10 percent gain for Left leaning parties in Australia. So without it Labour would not even be in the running.

Don't believe everything Wikipedia says. In non-compulsory voting countries what motivates people to vote, or demotivates them from voting swings around with political and economic cycles and the major social issues of the day. So left and right parties will always have turns at being in the majority. Even if there is a 7-10% benefit to left-leaning parties in compulsory voting it doesn't mean the right leaning parties would permanently be in power without it, nor does it mean left-leaning parties would permanently be in govt if it was introduced.

 

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I think the average voter is more perceptive than just voting for the party that promises to give them free stuff. The election results generally bear out that there is a pretty fair shot between the left and right parties (remembering that the difference between left and right in Australia is very small, compared to the gaping chasm in the USA).

Compulsory voting also ensures that parties have to stay at least semi-mainstream otherwise the average voter is going to punish you at the polls. In America you have every idiotic extreme nutjob with a chance because all they need to do is get their supporters out to vote. They don't have to cater to the average punter. That's one of the contributing reasons (admittedly there are many) why you've been stuck with Trump!

Re: the pattern of left/right government, I think it was Tony Blair who said that the general pattern is for conservative governments to hold power for longer and progressive governments to have short bursts. The idea being that (in general) the conservative governments manage the economy and get the budget in good shape, and then progressive governments spend the money on hopefully good programs. However, I think one of the problems recently is that the conservative wing globally has stepped away from their focus on solid economic management and budget control (instead pandering to the rich and cutting taxes) and has focused on the culture wars instead.

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1 hour ago, Jeor said:

I think the average voter is more perceptive than just voting for the party that promises to give them free stuff. The election results generally bear out that there is a pretty fair shot between the left and right parties (remembering that the difference between left and right in Australia is very small, compared to the gaping chasm in the USA).

Compulsory voting also ensures that parties have to stay at least semi-mainstream otherwise the average voter is going to punish you at the polls. In America you have every idiotic extreme nutjob with a chance because all they need to do is get their supporters out to vote. They don't have to cater to the average punter. That's one of the contributing reasons (admittedly there are many) why you've been stuck with Trump!

Re: the pattern of left/right government, I think it was Tony Blair who said that the general pattern is for conservative governments to hold power for longer and progressive governments to have short bursts. The idea being that (in general) the conservative governments manage the economy and get the budget in good shape, and then progressive governments spend the money on hopefully good programs. However, I think one of the problems recently is that the conservative wing globally has stepped away from their focus on solid economic management and budget control (instead pandering to the rich and cutting taxes) and has focused on the culture wars instead.

That is also more of a perception than a reality, especially the bit about conservative govts managing the economy and controlling the budget. Tony Blair is less smart than he thinks he is. He was a willing dupe to GWB on Iraq after all.

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Having scrutineered at a couple of elections, I can say that those who disapprove of being forced to vote end up voting informally.  That is, they add another box and write in someone like Mickey Mouse or they draw a cock and balls on the ballot paper or write "get fucked".  So their vote doesn't count anyway.

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