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[Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show


The Coconut God

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6 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

The message to us is clear:  If you screw up, you will lose big time. You can't procrastinate endlessly thinking you'll brave all odds when your back is against the wall, or that a miraculous solution will present itself in the final hour.

OK, but fleeing to another continent and not solving the problem is to procrastinate. And if you have no other continent to flee again, you have your back against the wall. BTW, what do you think they should do to avoid messing again in Essos?

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2 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

OK, but fleeing to another continent and not solving the problem is to procrastinate. And if you have no other continent to flee again, you have your back against the wall. BTW, what do you think they should do to avoid messing again in Essos?

You keep insisting that there has to be a definitive solution... that's very idealistic of you. :D

The first thing they should do in order to avoid messing up is to stop fighting each other and keep their eyes on the problem. Other than that, I don't know. We might find more hints in the prequel show which is about the Long Night. Let's not forget that the first time around part of the solution was to build a big wall of ice and contain the problem. Similarly, if we melt the polar ice caps and some regions become flooded or uninhabitable due to weather conditions, recovering those areas right a way would be impossible.

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20 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

You think it would be satisfying to build up an enemy for seven seasons only to dispatch it in three episodes (actually one)?

Absolutely, yes. Other characters were built up in several episodes and dealt with in seconds. Of course the Battle if Winterfell will require a lot of sacrifices and deaths. This with counter-balance the possible victory. 

My guess is that Bran and the Nightking have to sort out something. That the forging of Lightbringer will be a big sacrifice, too. All this can be satisfying and reasonable in the overall balance.

20 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

I'm having a hard time understanding what sort of ending you have in mind that my own theory compares so poorly to. ;)

It makes no sense to build up to a Great war and then to flee. That would be extremely disappointing. The whole story is about Westeros and giving up Westeros would be cruel nonsense to all viewers and readers.

Ice and Fire will somehow kill each other and maybe none prevail. There must be a life for the common people of Westeros, though. Some protagonists must survive for the viewer to relate with the end.

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13 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

You keep insisting that there has to be a definitive solution... that's very idealistic of you. :D

Yes, I admit I'm totally idealistic. :D This is not reality. We may dream if we dare it. Is GRRM dreaming too?

13 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

The first thing they should do in order to avoid messing up is to stop fighting each other and keep their eyes on the problem.

Sure. But what is the problem? I don't feel building a bigger army, or a bigger wall, would solve it. It would mean war and violence are the answers to the problems. Cersei and Ramsay were right. They just needed greater firepower than their opponents.

13 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

We might find more hints in the prequel show which is about the Long Night.

I don't know if the prequel will be more faithful to GRRM's ideas (published or not) than GOT. But I believe the Yi Ti legends explain why the Others came back, and what is needed to see them leaving again and not returning.

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8 hours ago, Kajjo said:

Absolutely, yes. Other characters were built up in several episodes and dealt with in seconds. Of course the Battle if Winterfell will require a lot of sacrifices and deaths. This with counter-balance the possible victory. 

My guess is that Bran and the Nightking have to sort out something. That the forging of Lightbringer will be a big sacrifice, too. All this can be satisfying and reasonable in the overall balance.

I see where you are coming from, but that wouldn't be a satisfying ending for me. A magical solution explained in the last second is a cop-out and a cliche. Particularly if it involves Bran, since: a) no indication was given so far that Bran could challenge the Night King, and b) our other heroes did nothing to get Bran to where he is now, he got to the Three Eyed Raven and back to Winterfell with his own group... so what purpose do they serve in the Bran vs Night King story? Why was the focus placed on them instead of Bran all this time?

I would also be disappointed if killing the Night King destroys all the other white walkers and wights, since that would be way too convenient and also a cliche at this point. It's not an unlikely outcome, but the show will be remembered poorly if it happens.

8 hours ago, Kajjo said:

It makes no sense to build up to a Great war and then to flee. That would be extremely disappointing. The whole story is about Westeros and giving up Westeros would be cruel nonsense to all viewers and readers.

Ice and Fire will somehow kill each other and maybe none prevail. There must be a life for the common people of Westeros, though. Some protagonists must survive for the viewer to relate with the end.

I think you focus too much on the lands and too little on the people. The Great War plot line is not pointless if it is fought and lost. The people can still find salvation in exile. You sound like you wouldn't blink an eye if 95% died fighting back the Others, but if 40% survive by fleeing it's a great tragedy, because thy don't get to own Winterfell anymore! :P The story of Moses doesn't suck because he didn't conquer Egypt. Anna Karenina isn't a bad novel because she dies at the end...

1 hour ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Sure. But what is the problem? I don't feel building a bigger army, or a bigger wall, would solve it. It would mean war and violence are the answers to the problems. Cersei and Ramsay were right. They just needed greater firepower than their opponents.

I think that's going to be a problem with the show, not the books. The show won't have time to explore any of the themes related to the Exodus or show us in any great detail how the new world might look like in Essos, but if it happens in the books, we'll get a lot of that throughout Winds and Dream.

And there will be a mission North to stop the Long Night the same way the Last Hero did, it's just that the lands already lost won't be immediately recovered just because the magical McGuffin is activated. That would be a cop-out. The key here is the climate change parallel. Some lands are lost and humanity may or may not be able to recover them in due time, but the immediate solution for the people who used to live there is to go to places that weren't that affected and try to live with the people there instead of fighting them.

1 hour ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I don't know if the prequel will be more faithful to GRRM's ideas (published or not) than GOT. But I believe the Yi Ti legends explain why the Others came back, and what is needed to see them leaving again and not returning.

I think the fact that a Long Night prequel is in the works is an indicator that we might not learn all that much about the Others or see them defeated in season 8. They were defeated during the original Long Night, decisively enough that they vanished for millennia. Why would HBO make two series that basically build up to the same thing?

My take is that GoT will end with a cautionary message and the Others reclaiming Westeros (which would have been their original purpose, if the Children made them to fight back the First Men), and the Long Night will go back in time to scratch that itch for a full-out war with them, and to show us how they were defeated (so we know there is some hope for the future of the GoT world) and how and why they were made (in order to confirm that they wouldn't spread beyond Westeros by design - meaning humanity is safe in Essos - and/or to build sympathy for the Children's plight and make us see a form of justice in throwing the humans off the continent they stole).

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22 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

I think the fact that a Long Night prequel is in the works is an indicator that we might not learn all that much about the Others or see them defeated in season 8. They were defeated during the original Long Night, decisively enough that they vanished for millennia. Why would HBO make two series that basically build up to the same thing?

I don't see the logic of ASoIaF & GOT finishing on a cliffhanger. And then HBO doing a prequel telling what could possibly happen next. Do a sequel then! More so GRRM leaving a lot to tell after ADoS.

The prequel scope is already very wide, I'm not sure the Others will have that much room.

Quote

the series chronicles the world’s descent from the golden Age of Heroes into its darkest hour. From the horrifying secrets of Westeros’s history to the true origin of the White Walkers, the mysteries of the East to the Starks of legend

None of HBO projects are sequel, all returning to the past. Either everyone is dead. Or the world is idealistically :D at peace. I would rather have the opposite conclusion of yours: The previous LN was imperfectly fixed (hence the long winters). The return of the Others will fix that in more satisfactory way. As is suggested by this quote (an invitation for improving).

Quote

Yet the Great Empire of the Dawn was not reborn, for the restored world was a broken place where every tribe of men went its own way, fearful of all the others, and war and lust and murder endured, even to our present day.

 

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14 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

"The answer to the ending is one hundred percent hidden in the playlist choices. No one will believe us but it's true." - Benioff & Weiss.

Ah-ah, ah! Ah-ah, ah!

Found it quite to my liking (sounds they will not be defeated, they are to bring back order)

  • The hammer of the gods
  • Of how we calmed the tides of war
  • We are your overlords
  • So now you'd better stop and rebuild all your ruins
  • For peace and trust can win the day despite of all your losing
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On 4/11/2019 at 10:10 PM, BalerionTheCat said:

 

I don't know if the prequel will be more faithful to GRRM's ideas (published or not) than GOT. But I believe the Yi Ti legends explain why the Others came back, and what is needed to see them leaving again and not returning.

Have you listened to GRRM what he has to say about the cities, that he created in Essos? How and why he created them? Especially the story of Yi Ti? Watch his interview with Elio and Linda where they promote the World of Ice and Fire in a bookstore in Sweden. He gets a specific question about those cities. And after you watch it, you will understand why those cities will play no role in ASOIAF whatsoever. I am not gonna spoil it to you though ;)

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On 4/12/2019 at 12:09 AM, The Coconut God said:

the Children's plight and make us see a form of justice in throwing the humans off the continent they stole

New species don't steal a natural habitat. It's the course of the world, the normal proceedings of evolution that new species require space. It's absolutely natural and valid to expand into territories where other species live. Not a single of our modern species would exist if it hadn't conquered ecological niches and habitats.

There were the Children of the Forest and there came the First Man. Evolution. That's how it's done.

The Children make the serious mistake to create the White Walkers and not being able to control them. Leaf sacrifices herself so that Bran can live. There must be an importance to Bran. I guess somehow the three-eyed raven and the Nightking must come to terms. Nonetheless, the White Walkers need to be defeated in the great war. 

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3 hours ago, T and A said:

Have you listened to GRRM what he has to say about the cities, that he created in Essos? How and why he created them?

I know of GRRM inventing places we will never see. With funny names and no history. Like Kayakayanaya, the Shrykes, the Winged Men or whatever. Yi Ti is a step above that IMO. But I'm not referring to the currents emperors. Colloquo Votar's book was given to Jon to read. And this book has references to the Lion of Night, the Others, and the Long Night.

3 hours ago, T and A said:

I am not gonna spoil it to you though ;)

BTW, I don't care for spoilers, whatever. They are ways to know things you didn't know. If they are told accurately.

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Dany, herself, might return to Essos, that would be interesting if done well.  Beyond that though, the exodus theory just won't happen, and the climate change parallel I think is a little over done, I don't believe the author's central theme is about the environment or environmental damage, I could be wrong of course, but to me that would feel like a let down.

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1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

Dany, herself, might return to Essos, that would be interesting if done well.  Beyond that though, the exodus theory just won't happen, and the climate change parallel I think is a little over done, I don't believe the author's central theme is about the environment or environmental damage, I could be wrong of course, but to me that would feel like a let down.

Interesting. I actually agree with you here. A strictly environmental message would be cliched at this point, and it doesn't really fit Westeros, since the humans don't seem to be directly responsible for the weird season (unless it's in some bullshit arcane and long forgotten way). So I'll adjust my position:

The Exodus is not about climate change guilt. The message is there deep in the background if you want to read it that way, but that's not the point. The point is exploring the social and political consequences of a massive migration event, the kind which typically only climate change can trigger (regardless of its cause). This would be a lot more fascinating and original. And it would make us ask ourselves not how we can stop climate change (because we probably can't) but how we would deal with the inevitable large scale population movements it would inevitably bring after itself.

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20 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I don't see the logic of ASoIaF & GOT finishing on a cliffhanger. And then HBO doing a prequel telling what could possibly happen next. Do a sequel then! More so GRRM leaving a lot to tell after ADoS.

The prequel scope is already very wide, I'm not sure the Others will have that much room.

I'm not saying it would end on a cliffhanger. It's all about the tone of the conflict with the Others. People may be hoping for a LotR-style epic battle against darkness, but the fight in Game of Thrones will be more like Battlestar Galactica. The prequel would be an opportunity to offer them the high fantasy narrative as well.

18 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Found it quite to my liking (sounds they will not be defeated, they are to bring back order)

  • The hammer of the gods
  • Of how we calmed the tides of war
  • We are your overlords
  • So now you'd better stop and rebuild all your ruins
  • For peace and trust can win the day despite of all your losing

We come from the land of the ice and snow

From the midnight sun, where the hot springs flow

The hammer of the gods

W'ell drive our ships to new lands

To fight the horde, and sing and cry

Valhalla, I am coming!

It's not nice to pick and choose only the verses you like. ;)

5 hours ago, T and A said:

I am not gonna spoil it to you though

You don't have to spoil me, but you could be kind enough to give me a link. :lol:

3 hours ago, Kajjo said:

New species don't steal a natural habitat. It's the course of the world, the normal proceedings of evolution that new species require space. It's absolutely natural and valid to expand into territories where other species live. Not a single of our modern species would exist if it hadn't conquered ecological niches and habitats.

The White Walkers naturally expand into dark and frigid environments as well. ;) They may not even be a weapon of the Children in the books, so far only the show established that backstory.

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3 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

It's not nice to pick and choose only the verses you like. ;)

I picked the lines and bolded the words fitting me best. Not my intent to alter the message. You're free to use your own words.

3 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

You don't have to spoil me, but you could be kind enough to give me a link. :lol:

I believe it is this one: I don't care about Yi Ti. It is the book that is important.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMvFNaqSWEo

3 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

They may not even be a weapon of the Children in the books, so far only the show established that backstory.

:agree:

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1 hour ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I believe it is this one: I don't care about Yi Ti. It is the book that is important.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMvFNaqSWEo

Thank you for that!

It was a nice interview, but, just as I expected, it doesn't really say what @T and A claims. He was probably thinking about this question here, which was about Sothoryos and the lands east of Qarth. Those were indeed only invented for the maps and the world book. George did admit that he was using the wiki resources to see what he had said about some of the Free Cities, and he also made a very, very interesting comment: "When I'm about to write something about Norvos, I go to their page and say 'What have I said about Norvos?'. Oh, I've said that everybody there has a pet grasshopper and they talk backwards. Ok. Now I have to add more stuff to that." He's talking about that at the present tense after the release of the world book. Hmmm... I wonder what that might mean. ;)

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I like the environmental damage theme and I think its also a theme of sci-fi and fantasy more generally. Tolkien revered the trees and showed the destruction Saruman and Sauron caused to the land. The books should have some moral through line with a critique of human behavior, otherwise its just self- indulgent world building.

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This theory always infuriates me... Because I love it! My problem is, I just can't see it happening...

In the books it's one of a few theories that I think would be a fascinating place for the story to go but, despite nothing ruling them out and indeed sometimes even potentially foreshadowing to them, something just doesn't quite click. The foremost of these for me is the theory that Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne, so Barristan will go over to fAegon's cause as the 'Betrayal for Love'.

I applaud your efforts to try and shoehorn it into the remaining bits of the show, Coconut, but to me it seems just that: a shoehorn. Now, while I wouldn't put something so unexpected past D&D after the Wight Hunt, this seems like a totally different kind of unexpected in that it's TOO clever. That's not a knock on D&D's intelligence, it's a knock on the way I think they perceive their audience. I really can't remember any specific details, but at some point in the past few seasons (definitely after they ran out of source material), they said something after an episode about how "oh, and REALLY attentive viewers will notice [something or other]". I remember a lot of confusion on here and on some of the deeper fan subreddits because so many people found this obvious, and many people concluded that either they just don't realise just quite how in depth fans like us can go, or they don't write with us in mind because like it or not we are a tiny proportion of the show's viewership.

Basically I just think the show is at this point so devoted to spectacle that it has to remain centered around familiar concepts in order to maximise the time for spectacle rather than much other development. This then doesn't bode well for the prospects of the Exodus Theory in the books given George's many, including recent, comments about the similar endings... :(

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10 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

It was a nice interview, but, just as I expected, it doesn't really say what @T and A claims. He was probably thinking about this question here, which was about Sothoryos and the lands east of Qarth.

At 37:30 he talks specifically about Yi Ti and its emperors. He doesn't plan to write more stuff about them or Yi Ti in general. But it doesn't imply everything he wrote about the LN there is fake.

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On 4/14/2019 at 3:15 AM, Oveloel said:

This theory always infuriates me... Because I love it! My problem is, I just can't see it happening...

In the books it's one of a few theories that I think would be a fascinating place for the story to go but, despite nothing ruling them out and indeed sometimes even potentially foreshadowing to them, something just doesn't quite click. The foremost of these for me is the theory that Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne, so Barristan will go over to fAegon's cause as the 'Betrayal for Love'.

I applaud your efforts to try and shoehorn it into the remaining bits of the show, Coconut, but to me it seems just that: a shoehorn. Now, while I wouldn't put something so unexpected past D&D after the Wight Hunt, this seems like a totally different kind of unexpected in that it's TOO clever. That's not a knock on D&D's intelligence, it's a knock on the way I think they perceive their audience. I really can't remember any specific details, but at some point in the past few seasons (definitely after they ran out of source material), they said something after an episode about how "oh, and REALLY attentive viewers will notice [something or other]". I remember a lot of confusion on here and on some of the deeper fan subreddits because so many people found this obvious, and many people concluded that either they just don't realise just quite how in depth fans like us can go, or they don't write with us in mind because like it or not we are a tiny proportion of the show's viewership.

Basically I just think the show is at this point so devoted to spectacle that it has to remain centered around familiar concepts in order to maximise the time for spectacle rather than much other development. This then doesn't bode well for the prospects of the Exodus Theory in the books given George's many, including recent, comments about the similar endings... :(

I have my reservations too, of course, but I'll be damned if I won't enjoy exploring my theory until the last moment! :P

D&D said the show will have the same outcome as the books, so I count on them to shoehorn anything... with an emphasis on the shoehorning as their primary contribution. :D What I'm not worried about is that it might be too out of the blue in the show. Ever since Shae's death, I know it doesn't need to make sense... it only needs to happen!

That being said, I watched the first episode from season 8 and...

Spoiler

So far, things are looking good. There were even three potential instances of set-up:

  • Another establishing shot on the gigantic Greyjoy fleet.
  • Euron told Yara that he'll sail the Iron Fleet somewhere else if his side loses.
  • Yara told Theon that "Daenerys will need someplace to retreat if they can't hold the North. Somewhere the dead can't go," and I doubt the finale will focus on the Iron Isands. :D

 

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