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[Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show


The Coconut God

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On 4/15/2019 at 7:56 PM, The Coconut God said:
Spoiler

Yara told Theon that "Daenerys will need someplace to retreat if they can't hold the North. Somewhere the dead can't go," and I doubt the finale will focus on the Iron Isands:D

 

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I must say, I thought of you the moment I heard her say that! Maybe there's still hope...!

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21 hours ago, Oveloel said:
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I must say, I thought of you the moment I heard her say that! Maybe there's still hope...!

There is hope indeed! :D

Now I've also started thinking that the spirals may be a symbol of migration - the First Men pushing the Children and the Giants away from their lands, then the Andals pushing the First Men, then the Targaryens sort of pushing at the upper levels, and now the white walkers, a remnant of the elder races, are pushing the humans out of Westeros.

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I just noticed this, but there's a hint in the season 7 finale as well! :P

During her scene with Tyrion, Cersei tells him: "All I could think about was keeping those gnashing teeth away from the ones who matter most. Away from my family. Maybe Euron Greyjoy had the right idea. Get on a boat, take those who matter..." But that was when Tyrion figured out she was pregnant and distracted us from what she was saying.

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20 minutes ago, taurusmoo2004 said:

The end of Hardhome is brilliant foreshadowing of an exodus. 

I'm almost certain that show Hardhome is books White Harbor. There are some meaty bits of foreshadowing in Davos's second chapter in ADwD, starting with the description of the Merry Midwife's figurehead.

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Yeh, Hardhome had more than a little dunkirk about it. It would be a fantastic subversion and totally believable. Even in the show at season 8 all the talk is STILL political manoeuvring and the wall is down ffs.

So many horrible world events in history have been allowed to happen and fester because of ego and politics. It would be a perfect ending and make sense of Dany still ruling slavers bay etc.

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5 hours ago, T and A said:

From GRRM last interview on 60 Minutes we have now a confirmation that the show and the books will end similar. Do you really believe that he plans to built up all this story and end up with an Exodus? That is awfull writing. 

We've had that confirmation for a long time. I obviously don't know what kind of story George decided to write, but I know that the Exodus is the best solution I can think of to the puzzle Feast and Dance left behind, and it makes a hundred times more sense in the books than it does in the show, because the books have plenty of set up for it. You calling it "awful writing" is just, like, your opinion, man.

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2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

We've had that confirmation for a long time. I obviously don't know what kind of story George decided to write, but I know that the Exodus is the best solution I can think of to the puzzle Feast and Dance left behind, and it makes a hundred times more sense in the books than it does in the show, because the books have plenty of set up for it. You calling it "awful writing" is just, like, your opinion, man.

No, actually we didn't had the confirmation from GRRM himself. We had that confirmation from the Showrunners, whom I trusted, so you are right, that didn't change anything, at least for me. 

And of course I could be wrong about what I wrote. I just don't like the idea of the Exodus. If you believe in it, it is also your opinion. You have spend more time in developing that theory, than me denying it. So I guess we will see in five weeks? ;)

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1 hour ago, T and A said:

No, actually we didn't had the confirmation from GRRM himself. We had that confirmation from the Showrunners, whom I trusted, so you are right, that didn't change anything, at least for me. 

And of course I could be wrong about what I wrote. I just don't like the idea of the Exodus. If you believe in it, it is also your opinion. You have spend more time in developing that theory, than me denying it. So I guess we will see in five weeks? ;)

True, we will find out soon enough. Since you're such a fan of the show, I can only hope the idea will grow on you if the show does do it. :D

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Not a lot of hints for the Exodus in this episode, but then again there weren't many hints for anything other than the battle to come. That exchange between Missandei and Grey Worm about returning to Naath could count, but it's more likely that it was merely setting up those characters' deaths. To be honest, I don't expect many hints in episode 3 either, other than Winterfell falling.

But the way Jenny's song hangs sorrowfully on that one verse about leaving did get my hopes up. It's even more poignant in the complete version, where it becomes the refrain. Very fitting for the Exodus.

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Someone on reddit pointed out another song from D&D's playlist that fits with the Exodus. So far, there are four that I know of (I was too lazy to check them all, if you know any others please point them out):

1. Led Zeppelin - Immigrant Song:

Quote

We come from the land of the ice and snow
From the midnight sun, where the hot springs flow

The hammer of the gods
W'ell drive our ships to new lands
To fight the horde, and sing and cry
Valhalla, I am coming!

2. The Thermals - Here's Your Future:

Quote

 

God reached his hand down from the sky
He flooded the land then he set it on fire
He said, "Fear me again. Know I'm your father
Remember that no one can breathe underwater"

So bend your knees and bow your heads
Save your babies, here's your future
Yeah, here's your future

God reached his hand down from the sky
God asked Noah if he wanted to die
He said no sir
Oh, no, sir

God said here's your future
It's going to rain
So we're packing our things
We're building a boat

Where God will create the new master race

 

3. Thrice - Burn the Fleet:
 

Quote

 

In this dark night
We stand or we fall
We are kings now
Or nothing at all

Check your armour
Light up your torch
Touch the flame to sail
Before you head for the shore

And we will burn the fleet
We can never go home

It's on to victory or under ground
Burn the fleet
We'll be heroes or ghosts
But we won't be turned around

 

4. Van Morrison - Listen to the Lion:

Quote

 

And we sailed, and we sailed, and we sailed...
All around the World
And we sailed..., and we sailed..., and we sailed...
Looking for a brand new start

And we sailed...
And we sailed, and we sailed...
All around the World
... a brand new start

 

 

And then there's Sansa's quote from the episode 3 trailer: "The most heroic thing we can do now is look the truth in the face". This has to be from the end of the episode, after they lose the battle and their only choice is to flee.

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On 4/9/2019 at 7:02 AM, The Coconut God said:

Some of you may have heard about my Exodus Theory, but for those unfamiliar with it here's a summary:

  • The Others are not an enemy that can be defeated, but rather a force of nature, like a tsunami or volcanic eruption. Their coming will force the people of the Seven Kingdoms to migrate to Essos in several waves of refugees, the first of which will be led by Jon on the Manderly Fleet.

  • Dany will never reach Westeros proper, but she will help in the fight against Euron, who will serve as the main villain by blocking the passage across the narrow sea with his fleet and stolen dragon, in the hope that such a gigantic sacrifice will give him godlike powers.

  • Brienne, Jaime and the BwB will undertake a journey North to find and rescue Bran, and eventually they will follow in the footsteps of the Last Hero and stop the Long Night from spreading beyond the Seven Kingdoms.

If you want to dive deeper into it, its latest and most comprehensive incarnation can be found here.

Since D&D said that the show and the books "will have the same outcome", I would like to explore what kind of implications my theory would have for the final season and the show as a whole. How will the Exodus happen in season 8, and just how accurate will the final seasons prove to be?

In the books, if my theory is correct, the Exodus will start in the first half of TWoW and Jon will be in Braavos by the middle of the book. A lot of the story will take place in Essos, since that is the setting in which humanity will start its new future; Dany will sweep across the continent conquering the Free Cities one by one, and Braavos will act as a major foil for her in ADoS, having a similar importance to King's Landing in ACoK. Obviously, none of that was or has any time to be in the show. Why not? I can think of three plausible reasons:

  1. D&D wanted to spoil as little as possible from the books, and so they held back on the big Exodus twist until the very end, giving George a chance to reveal it earlier or around the same time in TWoW.

  2. Shifting a great deal of the focus towards Essos would have been a risky move, especially without the books doing it first. Ned's death and the Red Wedding were "tested" major twists. D&D likely did not have the balls to try a third one blind before the series was over. Especially when it meant the death of Westeros itself.

  3. Starting the Exodus early would have simply been too expensive. Deep snow in the North as early as season 6, new locations in Essos, new costumes, new minor characters, money, money, money. It would have been a lot more convenient to extend the screen life of existing locations.

What did D&D replace the yet-to-be-published book material with? Here's are my educated guesses:

  • Dany's arc in season 7 replaces fAegon's arc in TWoW. In the books, his main purpose will be to instigate another major conflict in the South, thus ensuring that the realm is truly incapable of fending off the Others. In the show, D&D attempted to please the fans and give us a taste of Dany conquering her ancestors' kingdom, but because fAegon is mostly a plot device in the greater scheme of things, this arc fell flat for her and it felt like she was a foil for Cersei more than anything else.

  • Just like the Battle of the Bastards was a retread on Stannis's Battle of Ice, I believe the Battle for Winterfell in season 8 also borrows heavily from Stannis's last stand in early TWoW. The poor man was truly robbed of all his glory.

  • Because they had to take her to Westeros, Arya most likely "inherited" LSH's and Manderly's arcs of killing Freys, then butted in on Sansa's arc of outsmarting Littlefinger. In the books, she will likely be heavily involved in Braavos's war against Dany - we'll see how that translates to their relationship in season 8.

That leaves us with season 6, season 7 and half of season 8 repeatedly gravitating around the first half of TWoW (which makes sense, considering that's likely all the unreleased material D&D had access to), and the big Exodus reveal left for the final three episodes. Obviously it will be a heavily truncated version of what George has planned, doing away with all the Essos set-up and finer details and cramming a book and a half (if not more) into approximately four hours of TV. Here's my tentative prediction on how they'll be doing that:

  1. The Battle of Winterfell in episode three will be a crushing defeat, but some survivors will be evacuated by flanking them with dragonfire.

  2. In episode four, we might see them gathering a few more people (Hot Pie, etc.) while on their flight south to Dragonstone. Team Jon&Dany will have to decide on what to do next, and that's when the idea of the Exodus will be sprung. It's been established already that the wights and the Others do not swim, so Essos should be safe according to the lore of the show.

  3. Since most of Dany's fleet was destroyed during the attack on Casterly Rock (yes, this was the point of that arc), their only chance to take enough survivors with them would be to use Euron's fleet. They try to work out a deal with him and Cersei, but he either refuses or the price they ask is too high.

  4. The final showdown of GoT will then be a desperate attack on King's Landing to steal Euron's fleet and escape the Others, who will inherit Westeros and the Iron Throne. The city may or may not burn in the process.

  5. We get a brief epilogue with whoever survives the whole ordeal reaching Braavos and/or Meereen and bracing themselves for a new era for humanity, then we cut to the Night King sitting on the ruins of the Iron Throne The end.

What do you guys think? Does it hold water? Would it be a satisfying direction for the story in the books? What about the show?

Yeah, not so much, could you have been more wrong?

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13 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Could this episode have been any worse, though? :lol:

It's like I predicted the show wouldn't piss itself and you were happy that it did.

I always knew your theory was wrong, even though it was a 100x better thought through than the mess we saw last night.  I guess there is still some chance that Dany will leave Westeros w/her dragons and go back to Essos, but who cares at this point?  But, the Dothraki are now dead, the unsullied are mostly dead, so all her Essos people she has needlessly gotten killed.  

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8 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

I always knew your theory was wrong, even though it was a 100x better thought through than the mess we saw last night.  I guess there is still some chance that Dany will leave Westeros w/her dragons and go back to Essos, but who cares at this point?  But, the Dothraki are now dead, the unsullied are mostly dead, so all her Essos people she has needlessly gotten killed.  

Unless their interpretation of a "similar outcome" is looser than we thought and the final war is against Braavos instead of King's Landing, there is probably little hope for my theory. Which is disappointing, because it is the only way I can think of for the story to tie itself together in two books. Here's hoping that George has another, otherwise you may well be right that he lost the plot...

That being said, in the aftershow D&D made it sound like Arya killing the Night King was their idea (Benioff said they considered Jon as well and it "didn't seem right"). This reinforces the notion that the Night King is a show only creation, as are probably his undead dragon and the whole battle in episode 8.3. We still don't know if and how the Others will be dealt with in the books, which is a little suspicious. At the very least there is some room for interpretation around this discrepancy.

1 hour ago, Error-504 said:

Except your theory sucked, so there is that. 

Coming from someone who thinks the latest episode was cool, that sounds like a compliment! :D

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