[Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

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19 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Unless their interpretation of a "similar outcome" is looser than we thought and the final war is against Braavos instead of King's Landing, there is probably little hope for my theory. Which is disappointing, because it is the only way I can think of for the story to tie itself together in two books. Here's hoping that George has another, otherwise you may well be right that he lost the plot...

That being said, in the aftershow D&D made it sound like Arya killing the Night King was their idea (Benioff said they considered Jon as well and it "didn't seem right"). This reinforces the notion that the Night King is a show only creation, as are probably his undead dragon and the whole battle in episode 8.3. We still don't know if and how the Others will be dealt with in the books, which is a little suspicious. At the very least there is some room for interpretation around this discrepancy.

Coming from someone who thinks the latest episode was cool, that sounds like a compliment! 

And coming from someone that couldn't have gotten things anymore wrong, I will take yours as one myself. 

[T and A]

On 4/30/2019 at 8:52 AM, The Coconut God said:

Coming from someone who thinks the latest episode was cool, that sounds like a compliment! 

I liked the latest episode too. Quite a lot of people liked it. Quite a lot didn't. It was clear, that the ending they choose for the war against the WW will be controverse. But if your theory was right (which except of you and maybe 10 people overall no one believed it for a second), the backlash could be heard from the moon 

[Timm]

On 4/29/2019 at 10:08 PM, Cas Stark said:

I always knew your theory was wrong, even though it was a 100x better thought through than the mess we saw last night.  I guess there is still some chance that Dany will leave Westeros w/her dragons and go back to Essos, but who cares at this point?  But, the Dothraki are now dead, the unsullied are mostly dead, so all her Essos people she has needlessly gotten killed.  

I think that kind of sums it up.

 

[The Coconut God]

3 hours ago, T and A said:

I liked the latest episode too. Quite a lot of people liked it. Quite a lot didn't. It was clear, that the ending they choose for the war against the WW will be controverse. But if your theory was right (which except of you and maybe 10 people overall no one believed it for a second), the backlash could be heard from the moon 

So... in a show/book series that earned its prestige by uncompromisingly allowing beloved characters to suffer the full consequences of their actions, including their brutal deaths and the deaths of their loved ones, you think there would have been backlash if Westeros as a whole was lost because the the lords and ladies took ages to react to the Others and even in the end failed to fully unite against them?  But dispatching an existential threat that was built up for seven seasons and half in a single episode by killing one dude in cheesy slow motion... that's fantastic storytelling? 

The way D&D dealt with this plot line doesn't only invalidate my theory (which would still work perfectly in the books, btw, even if it's not what George chooses to write). It makes anything related to Azor Ahai, prophecies and the mystical importance of Winterfell irrelevant as well. It removes any depth from the Others, and skews the entire message of the series from "people are foolish to fight among each other when faced with imminent existential threats" to "smart people let their rivals fight the existential threats for them and focus on how much political power they'll be able to acquire after the dust settles"... which ironically is only smart when the plot ensures that the existential threat will be dealt with no matter what, by deus ex machina if need be.

[T and A]

12 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

So... in a show/book series that earned its prestige by uncompromisingly allowing beloved characters to suffer the full consequences of their actions, including their brutal deaths and the deaths of their loved ones, you think there would have been backlash if Westeros as a whole was lost because the the lords and ladies took ages to react to the Others and even in the end failed to fully unite against them?  But dispatching an existential threat that was built up for seven seasons and half in a single episode by killing one dude in cheesy slow motion... that's fantastic storytelling? 

The way D&D dealt with this plot line doesn't only invalidate my theory (which would still work perfectly in the books, btw, even if it's not what George chooses to write). It makes anything related to Azor Ahai, prophecies and the mystical importance of Winterfell irrelevant as well. It removes any depth from the Others, and skews the entire message of the series from "people are foolish to fight among each other when faced with imminent existential threats" to "smart people let their rivals fight the existential threats for them and focus on how much political power they'll be able to acquire after the dust settles"... which ironically is only smart when the plot ensures that the existential threat will be dealt with no matter what, by deus ex machina if need be.

I never said, it was good storytelling. I didn't liked it at all. I just said, that your idea would be worse. Even for me, as a book reader. Because, the way it ended in the show, leaves me to hope, that the battle against the Others in the books, might have something deeper to it than the show has shown, which will be revealed in the books. The show could not ruin this for me. But if it indeed ended with an Exodus, I would not read any other book, because no matter how much the show diverged from the books, the books would still end with such an absurdity too.

[The Coconut God]

1 minute ago, T and A said:

I never said, it was good storytelling. I didn't liked it at all. I just said, that your idea would be worse. Even for me, as a book reader. Because, the way it ended in the show, leaves me to hope, that the battle against the Others in the books, might have something deeper to it than the show has shown, which will be revealed in the books. The show could not ruin this for me. But if it indeed ended with an Exodus, I would not read any other book, because no matter how much the show diverged from the books, the books would still end with such an absurdity too.

Why do you dislike it? Because losing those castles and lands you (and the characters) are emotionally attached to makes you sad? Because a lot of people would die and you think that would suck? Because you don't care about Essos and you don't want the series to have more of it? Or because you don't think it's believable, and if so, why?

[Cas Stark]

10 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

Why do you dislike it? Because losing those castles and lands you (and the characters) are emotionally attached to makes you sad? Because a lot of people would die and you think that would suck? Because you don't care about Essos and you don't want the series to have more of it? Or because you don't think it's believable, and if so, why?

Because I don't care about Essos, and because in it's way it's a kind of deus ex machina...oh no, we fucked up, everyone has to leave, the end, it's not satisfying for some of the same reasons that the show was not satisfying, things that have been built up, e.g. Westeros, for many books, are all left for a twist at the end,

[T and A]

3 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Because I don't care about Essos, and because in it's way it's a kind of deus ex machina...oh no, we fucked up, everyone has to leave, the end, it's not satisfying for some of the same reasons that the show was not satisfying, things that have been built up, e.g. Westeros, for many books, are all left for a twist at the end,

This! I can not put it better together.

[The Coconut God]

Just now, Cas Stark said:

Because I don't care about Essos, and because in it's way it's a kind of deus ex machina...oh no, we fucked up, everyone has to leave, the end, it's not satisfying for some of the same reasons that the show was not satisfying, things that have been built up, e.g. Westeros, for many books, are all left for a twist at the end,

I see. To me it's kind of the opposite. George already spent so many pages writing about Essos that I don't think he can afford to abandon it anymore. If he doesn't go all in and make it relevant for the endgame, it will remain like a huge lump of filler on the face of the series, and the contrivance that makes Dany forget about slavery and rush over to Westeros will look like an ugly narrative scar I'll be unable to ignore.

Ditto for Brienne; her chapters are beautiful, but if she remains a side character they don't serve any purpose within the series. If she becomes crucial to the end of the Others plot line, though... that would be one hell of a twist, and a very elegant way of introducing Azor Ahai, from background character, to minor, to an engaging support character, to PoV, to the Hero of prophecy.

I disagree that escaping to Essos is a deus ex machina. It is the most realistic low key analysis of the primary political consequence of climate change, which is migration from the most affected areas to the less affected ones. Ice zombies are not really required, they're just a fantasy flourish. If a place becomes too hot or too cold for people to live there, if it's covered in water or constantly swept by storms, people will take their families and move somewhere where they can survive, even if it sometimes leads to tensions and war.

Far from being unsatisfying, if George takes the story in this direction, I would see it as a visionary exploration of what we may eventually experience ourselves as climate change starts to affect the planet. It's not a guilt trip about pollution or a rallying cry to stop global warming, because we're past that already. It's the next step scenario. Island and coastal nations start to submerge, deserts expand and millions of displaced people converge towards the countries that are somewhat fine. It makes you ask yourself how you would react to that mass migration. Do you make room for those people? Do you just want them to die? Would you be fine with them keeping their culture, or should they be forced to embrace the culture of their hosts? Are they entitled to start a war for survival and living space? Does it matter who bares more of the responsibility for the climate change? I think it would open the series to some fascinating themes, far more interesting and relevant than whether Cersei or the Night King is the real villain, with far bigger stakes than whether or not the Starks recover Winterfell.

It would also be a way for the series to continue focusing on its political narrative, people fighting and making alliances for the sake of lands, titles, freedom and the well-being of their countrymen, while allowing the Others to be as much of a threat as they could ever be.

Last but not least... Essos is still there whether you care about it or not. Wanting it out of the story is just moving the goalpost on the argument that Dorne and the Iron Islands shouldn't have been brought in. Readers would still be able to ask themselves "Well, why aren't these guys doing anything?" and "Why can't everyone go there?". Regardless of how much you like Essos, or the Iron Islands, or Dorne, the story would be weakened if these obvious questions are left unanswered. The Exodus ties everything together...

But I do realize that this is just my swan song for the theory until TWoW comes out...  It doesn't matter how well I argue for it now that the show did something else. I guess the people over in the umpteenth Heresy thread, as well as countless other theorists, probably feel just as bad. 

[Cas Stark]

I do think Meereen is filler, and so is Brienne's ride around, also filler, and so is Tyrion's ride/boat around.  At least one third of Feast and Dance are filler, the author running in place because he couldn't make the gap work.  I will reserve my judgment on Dorne and Iron Islands, but I suspect that those stories are also filler, but they may still have more resonance than the Essos filler.  And, again, the story as a parable of climate change is weak, in my opinion.  

[The Coconut God]

37 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I do think Meereen is filler, and so is Brienne's ride around, also filler, and so is Tyrion's ride/boat around.  At least one third of Feast and Dance are filler, the author running in place because he couldn't make the gap work.  I will reserve my judgment on Dorne and Iron Islands, but I suspect that those stories are also filler, but they may still have more resonance than the Essos filler.  And, again, the story as a parable of climate change is weak, in my opinion.  

If the plot lines aren't tied together well, I can tell you I'll be critical of the series, but I'll give George the benefit of the doubt until he published something because I respect his work so far, and obviously I can envision scenarios I would love, so I don't think the series is hopeless.

Ultimately, I want the story to be driven by the characters and the situations they are in, without the plot getting lost on the way. And I don't want the author to cheat so he can put the character on track towards a mandatory end goal. I don't want things to happen because the author - or the readers! - want them to happen.

Dany leaving Essos is a key example. Her last ADwD chapter didn't convince me that she's motivated to leave. Some readers were convinced because that's what they were hoping for, but she didn't acknowledge changing her mind about slavery, nor the immense continent she would be leaving behind, a continent that is up for grabs if she gets the Dothraki. My read on the character is that she would have a lot of reasons to stay (she lacks a sense of connection with the Ghiscari, that's true, but she does have one with the Dothraki, and she'll be among them soon).

Jon and the North are in a similar situation. At the end of ADwD, they don't seem prepared for the Others at all, if they attack soon, chances are the North would fall. Can George brush over this perfect moment and delay the Others enough for Jon and his allies to prepare themselves without making the whole situation feel contrived? It remains to be seen.

[Cas Stark]

17 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

If the plot lines aren't tied together well, I can tell you I'll be critical of the series, but I'll give George the benefit of the doubt until he published something because I respect his work so far, and obviously I can envision scenarios I would love, so I don't think the series is hopeless.

Ultimately, I want the story to be driven by the characters and the situations they are in, without the plot getting lost on the way. And I don't want the author to cheat so he can put the character on track towards a mandatory end goal. I don't want things to happen because the author - or the readers! - want them to happen.

Dany leaving Essos is a key example. Her last ADwD chapter didn't convince me that she's motivated to leave. Some readers were convinced because that's what they were hoping for, but she didn't acknowledge changing her mind about slavery, nor the immense continent she would be leaving behind, a continent that is up for grabs if she gets the Dothraki. My read on the character is that she would have a lot of reasons to stay (she lacks a sense of connection with the Ghiscari, that's true, but she does have one with the Dothraki, and she'll be among them soon).

Jon and the North are in a similar situation. At the end of ADwD, they don't seem prepared for the Others at all, if they attack soon, chances are the North would fall. Can George brush over this perfect moment and delay the Others enough for Jon and his allies to prepare themselves without making the whole situation feel contrived? It remains to be seen.

I already think the author has made some poor choices.  I came to hate Dany due to her Meereen story, and it's a terrible move of a selfish person to upend an entire region, and then decide, yeah, whatever, I'm done here, I want the IT....but I believe that is what will happen.  I root against her now for many reasons of her Meereen story...being a bad ruler, locking up her dragons, causing the deaths of thousands of people to serve her own sense of justice damn the consequences, a dead freed slave is still dead and would probably have preferred to be alive.

He's in a better place with the Northern story, because the blocks have fallen into place already.  What kind of end he comes up with for the Others remains to be seen, I'd guess it won't be as stupid as what we saw Sunday, but it could still be underwhelming, I doubt we ever know though.

[The Coconut God]

16 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I already think the author has made some poor choices.  I came to hate Dany due to her Meereen story, and it's a terrible move of a selfish person to upend an entire region, and then decide, yeah, whatever, I'm done here, I want the IT....but I believe that is what will happen.  I root against her now for many reasons of her Meereen story...being a bad ruler, locking up her dragons, causing the deaths of thousands of people to serve her own sense of justice damn the consequences, a dead freed slave is still dead and would probably have preferred to be alive.

Dany's story in Slaver's Bay is a an exemplification of the saying "the road to hell is paved with good intentions". She genuinely wants to help people and be a good ruler, but she makes a lot of horrible mistakes due to her inexperience. I'm still marginally rooting for her over the slavers though, I don't think the message is that she should have turned a blind eye to slavery. I'd find that message very icky to be honest.

If she suddenly decides to leave after stirring shit up, that would immediately make her a villain in my eyes, yes, but for one I don't think the character is quite there yet... Like I said, her entire arc in Meereen is about failing to adopt ghiscari traditions and in the end embracing Fire and Blood. Her relationship with the freedmen is not really shaken in any way, she doesn't show any frustration towards that chunk of the population, and she still calls them her "children" in the final chapter, so I don't think George made any progress towards having her think they're not worth saving. And on the other hand I don't think George will abruptly make her into this fickle, selfish villain before she even meets Jon.

I do think she's walking down a dark path, but not because she's fickle. I think she will learn to justify atrocities (and most readers will justify them with her) by fighting against vile people, and she'll continue to do worse and worse things against less and less villainous opponents, up until the readers (and some of the character) are no longer on her side. In the Exodus scenario, her final enemy would have been Braavos, which obviously doesn't deserve to be crushed by Dany, especially since they protected her when she was a child, and Jon and Tyrion would have had good reasons to side with Braavos over her. I don't really know how this arc could be executed in Westeros, most of her opponents would be very grey.

Another thing that puzzles me is the sheer amount of open plot lines she has in Essos. Volantis, the Tattered Prince, the House with the Red Door. If she stays in Essos, George can work these seamlessly into the story, if not they are left dangling in your face. Mellario Martell also seems like such an obvious tie in to me. Getting her involved would be a natural climax for Quentin's plot line, Areo's chapters and Arianne's plot. I explained here why Andrey Dalt was the guy who snitched on Arianne, and solving this mystery points directly to Mellario likely finding out about Quentin's mission. So many things would make sense under this scenario, versus all of them being filler. I just don't know what to believe anymore...

54 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

He's in a better place with the Northern story, because the blocks have fallen into place already.  What kind of end he comes up with for the Others remains to be seen, I'd guess it won't be as stupid as what we saw Sunday, but it could still be underwhelming, I doubt we ever know though.

If the threat is dispatched as quickly as it was in the show, who knows? Maybe Stannis really is Azor Ahai. He defeats the Boltons and stops the Others only to be ignominiously backstabbed by the northern lords or crushed by Sansa and the armies of the Vale. Onward goes the game of thrones...

[Cas Stark]

I don't think Dany will go dark, she's already dark, and the author always speaks of her like a hero, like a General Sherman, who does bad things but is as ruthless as necessary to win for the 'good guys' so I see that her story will end on a positive note.  I would much prefer she became an antagonist because I have come to despise her character, but I don't see that as realistic.

Even if the author finishes the books, which I doubt, he is not going to ever be able to close all the open plots answer all the questions or weave back all the things that readers expected to have meaning, Sword of the Morning, Isle of faces...on and on it goes.

We're doomed, that's the answer.

[The Coconut God]

12 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Even if the author finishes the books, which I doubt, he is not going to ever be able to close all the open plots answer all the questions or weave back all the things that readers expected to have meaning, Sword of the Morning, Isle of faces...on and on it goes.

I don't expect him to tie in everything. The Isle of Faces was mentioned around 8 times in AGoT and then once more in ASoS in a story about Howland Reed, but only tangentially. It sounds like a place George initially had plans for, but eventually decided to drop, there's little to no depth or emotional connection to it. I don't want him to force it into the story just because it was mentioned in the beginning, that's what D&D would do.

I want him to look at his characters and the situations they are in and honestly, uncompromisingly ask himself where the characters would go. That's how you write a good story. You have some wiggle room, sure, but if you get hung up on a location being used or a character doing something that doesn't really make sense, that's when you compromise and you story starts to show cracks.

Some things aren't meant to be explained. They exist as motifs, their purpose is to set the tone of the story without giving the game away. Arthur Dayne and his swords instills some Azor Ahai/Lightbringer imagery in the mind of the reader before Azor Ahai is introduced, so when that finally happens it feels somewhat familiar and rooted in the world. It's similar with the squishers. They probably don't matter at all, but they give Brienne's story a bit of a horror vibe. From then on, most of her chapters take somewhat of a post-apocalyptic zombie story tone, so if her story eventually segues into fighting the Others after dealing with LSH, that tone will feel familiar.