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If Mance or Dustin wrote the Pink Letter, what were their intentions? What would they gain?


Shpati

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I read a lot of theories about the Pink Letter. And many suggest that Mance or Dustin wrote it (maybe both together). She has the most knowledge about the details in that letter

Anyway... my question is why? Why would one write such a cryptic letter hoping Jon gets the details that these theories suggest? Why would they think that is a smart idea? What were they trying to get Jon to do? If their letter plan was a success, what would be the outcome and what would they gain?

Were they just trying to get Jon to march on Winterfell with a bunch of Wildings? Would that even help? I guess if that was the plan, it makes sense to enrage Jon as much as possible so he can break his vows and leave. But I think it would make more sense to just write that Arya is still captured and suffering, and that Stannis needs more troops if he is to have a chance. That way he can statically meet with Stannis or another anti-Bolton army.

It seems like the only clear intention in this letter was to get Jon killed which Ramsey would want. If Lady Dustin's hatred is higher than expected, she might want Jon Snow dead too, but I think not. And Mance might want this because Snow is still a Crow. But I don't think he would sacrifice all his freefolk at the Wall.

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42 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Ramsay B wrote the letter to Jon.  From one bastard to another.  He wants the bride, Reek, wildling VIP, and the rebels.   It all makes perfect sense. 

No, it doesn't make sense, that precisely the point. To begin with how could Ramsay know about "the wildling princess"?

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5 hours ago, Shpati said:

Anyway... my question is why? Why would one write such a cryptic letter hoping Jon gets the details that these theories suggest? Why would they think that is a smart idea? What were they trying to get Jon to do? If their letter plan was a success, what would be the outcome and what would they gain?

Ask martin the next time you see him. It might be difficult due to martin is spending his time in his hidey hole busily writing his sixth book and his minions are making sure he eats properly.

edit: hush, be silent as little mice

https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/tv/a27131330/george-rr-martin-final-book-game-of-thrones/

Even earlier than that, in 2010, he said that he had already finished five chapters of the planned sixth book, The Winds of Winter, so are we supposed to imagine it’s taken NINE years to not even come up with the remaining chapters?

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18 hours ago, Shpati said:

I read a lot of theories about the Pink Letter. And many suggest that Mance or Dustin wrote it (maybe both together). She has the most knowledge about the details in that letter

Anyway... my question is why? Why would one write such a cryptic letter hoping Jon gets the details that these theories suggest? Why would they think that is a smart idea? What were they trying to get Jon to do? If their letter plan was a success, what would be the outcome and what would they gain?

Were they just trying to get Jon to march on Winterfell with a bunch of Wildings? Would that even help? I guess if that was the plan, it makes sense to enrage Jon as much as possible so he can break his vows and leave. But I think it would make more sense to just write that Arya is still captured and suffering, and that Stannis needs more troops if he is to have a chance. That way he can statically meet with Stannis or another anti-Bolton army.

It seems like the only clear intention in this letter was to get Jon killed which Ramsey would want. If Lady Dustin's hatred is higher than expected, she might want Jon Snow dead too, but I think not. And Mance might want this because Snow is still a Crow. But I don't think he would sacrifice all his freefolk at the Wall.

Lady Dustin has the knowledge!!!!!  I think not.  Ramsay has all of the knowledge needed to write that letter after forcing the wildlings to talk.  Whoever proposed the theories making claims it was her are incorrect.  Mance has more knowledge than Lady Dustin but if he wrote that letter he would have said "I want your sister back" instead of "I want my bride back" because Abel doesn't know she's fake.  The composer of the letter obviously knows she's a fake.  

What motivations could somebody like Lady Dustin and Mance Rayder have for writing that letter?  Nothing whatsoever.  And these two had nothing whatsoever to do with that letter.  So yeah.  They don't have a reason and they don't have the facts to write the pink letter.  

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13 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Ask martin the next time you see him. It might be difficult due to martin is spending his time in his hidey hole busily writing his sixth book and his minions are making sure he eats properly.

edit: hush, be silent as little mice

https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/tv/a27131330/george-rr-martin-final-book-game-of-thrones/

Even earlier than that, in 2010, he said that he had already finished five chapters of the planned sixth book, The Winds of Winter, so are we supposed to imagine it’s taken NINE years to not even come up with the remaining chapters?

I heard somewhere there's a cheesy TV show that's ripped off the novels. Dunno might be just me, but maybe Martin's just waiting for it to die down, doesn't want to legitimize the abomination and give it undue publicity, like? :dunno:

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17 hours ago, Nowy Tends said:

No, it doesn't make sense, that precisely the point. To begin with how could Ramsay know about "the wildling princess"?

Quote

He is stone and she is flame. The king's eyes were blue bruises, sunk deep in a hollow face. He wore grey plate, a fur-trimmed cloak of cloth-of-gold flowing from his broad shoulders. His breast plate had a flaming heart inlaid above his own. Girding his brow was a red-gold crown with points like twisting flames. Val stood beside him, tall and fair. They had crowned her with a simple circlet of dark bronze, yet she looked more regal in bronze than Stannis did in gold. Her eyes were grey and fearless, unflinching. Beneath an ermine cloak, she wore white and gold. Her honey-blond hair had been done up in a thick braid that hung over her right shoulder to her waist. The chill in the air had put color in her cheeks.  ADWD -- Chapter 10

Not only did Mance witness this scene, all of the spear wives with him witnessed this scene. They were in the group of wildlings that were given the choice to burn a piece of weirwood and join Stannis or turn back.

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10 hours ago, Victor Newman said:

Lady Dustin has the knowledge!!!!!  I think not.  Ramsay has all of the knowledge needed to write that letter after forcing the wildlings to talk.  Whoever proposed the theories making claims it was her are incorrect.  Mance has more knowledge than Lady Dustin but if he wrote that letter he would have said "I want your sister back" instead of "I want my bride back" because Abel doesn't know she's fake.  The composer of the letter obviously knows she's a fake.  .  

I disagree with the way in which you came to that conclusion. For a few reasons. 1. 'Arya' isn't a human being to Ramsay, she's his property an extension of himself. He's writing the letter to get what is *his*, Arya and 'Arya' are not Jon Snow's anything in the mind of Ramsay. 2. Women aren't human beings to Ramsay, he has never once treated or talked to a woman as if they were anything more than his personal play things in the present or the future. Women are property to Ramsay, calling 'Arya' "your sister" would be admitting that Jon has some kind of claim to 'possess' her. One of the big things to note when you're writing a forgery is to make it sound like something the writer would actually say. 

 

10 hours ago, bent branch said:

Not only did Mance witness this scene, all of the spear wives with him witnessed this scene. They were in the group of wildlings that were given the choice to burn a piece of weirwood and join Stannis or turn back.

This still doesn't explain how Ramsay would know about the 'wildling princess' or why Ramsay would request her or Mance's son. None of the wildlings would have referred to Val as a 'wildling princess' or Mance's son as a 'prince'. Nor is there a logical or illogical line of questioning that would have led to any of the spearwives mentioning Val or Mance's son. The only line of questioning that would get Mance to mention it would be if he said something like "Snow holds my son, who is being watched by his mother's sister and that's why I came to free his sister." But there is no line of questioning that gets anyone at Winterfell to refer to the sister of a Queen as a princess. 

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If Mance or Dustin wrote the Pink Letter, what were their intentions? What would they gain?

Mance Rayder gains nothing.  But if you're willing to go all out tinfoil there is the Trojan theory.  Mance out smarted Jon and Stannis.  He tricked them and got through the wall.  He wants to watch Stannis, Roose, and the Watch weaken themselves so he can take control of the north.  The letter was done to push this goal.  I'm not onboard but there it is.  

Lady Barbrey Dustin gains nothing from plotting like that.  

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38 minutes ago, Great Oshiro said:

If Mance or Dustin wrote the Pink Letter, what were their intentions? What would they gain?

Mance Rayder gains nothing.  But if you're willing to go all out tinfoil there is the Trojan theory.  Mance out smarted Jon and Stannis.  He tricked them and got through the wall.  He wants to watch Stannis, Roose, and the Watch weaken themselves so he can take control of the north.  The letter was done to push this goal.  I'm not onboard but there it is.  

Lady Barbrey Dustin gains nothing from plotting like that.  

Depending on the current situation in Winterfell Mance and Barbrey and the Ryswells gain a LOT.  The mountain clansmen aren't much bothered by the snow storm, mostly being held up by having to stick with the Kingsmen. If there's any group of people that could move an army through a blizzard like that it's the free folk. So, whoever wants Jon to act also wants an army of free folk far to the south. 

Now let's consider the people under siege in Winterfell 

Besides Roose, Ramsay, and Hosteen Frey every one of the northern lords has a reason to betray the Boltons. Locke and Manderly were eating breakfast together, Larence Snow (Bastard of Hornwood) is likely freed by Stannis, Ramsay murdered Cley Cerwyn, Whoresbane is only in it to keep Greatjon safe, Arya is named for her Flint great-grandma etc. 

The only northern houses that have any hard reason to be allied with Roose are the Ryswells and the Dustins, and even then there's some clear reasons to betray the Boltons, especially if Roose dies. There's also the number Dustin and Ryswell men who died at the Red Wedding, Barbrey threatening Ramsay, Barbrey still secretly wishing she was a Stark, and Roose Ryswell failing to find Stannis so close to WF (no one else seems to be having that issue.) There's a more than fair chance they might turn. Because they gain nothing from supporting Bolton to the bitter end so long as Ramsay is alive. 

So here's how they benefit and have means 1. All of the maester's at WF are loyal to houses that aren't Bolton. Medrick just has to decide he's loyal is to Larence Snow and all three and Whoresbane can send the message 2. With Arya gone Mance ( Who had not actually been revealed IIRC.) can take care of himself sneaking out or hiding in the huge castle. 3. No one really has anything to legitimize Bolton rule and now they can call for Jon to come down and kill Ramsay, giving Dustin and Ryswell a face saving reason to switch. 4. The wording of the letter gives Jon just enough of a loophole that the northmen can decide that Jon didn't break his vows. So long as he just shows up, with a wildling "honorguard" (Think Leonidas's BS in 300.) and kicks Ramsay's ass one on one or waits until Ramsay attacks him first. This gets everyone who doesn't want to be in the Bolton situation, out of it, pretty easily and clearly. 

There is another reason why we can suspect the conspiracy of UnFlayed Men. The Tower of Joy. 

William Dustin's wife Barbrey 

Mark Ryswell's likely bother Rodrik Ryswell and his nephews and niece. 

Theo 'Buckets' Wull's probably dad Hugo "Ima drink Big Buckets of Bolton Blood" Wull 

Martyn Cassel's niece Beth Cassel is at the Dreadfort last we heard 

Ethan Glover's uncle/brother/cousin Robbett Glover might be meeting up with Wyman Manderly. 

All of the known living relatives to those who died at the Tower of Joy are now gathering together. And we have one other character to consider: The Hooded Man. 

I'm going to take it for granted that the Hooded Man is Howland Reed for three reasons 1. He wants to kill the shit out of Theon and wonders why Theon is still alive. 2. His last orders from Robb were to not let any Lannisters up the causeway, but no one kills Roose's body double or any of the Freys despite having done a good job murdering the ironborn. 3. Of all of the above mentioned relatives, the only ones not trying to kill the Bolton's are doing it because of their people dead and left in Dorne. If anyone could give them context for that situation it would be Howland Reed. He's also conveniently nearby for an R+L=J explanation for a possibly revived Jon. 

So that is all of the in-story motive, means, and thematic reasons why several people inside of WF could have written the Pink Letter in order to get Jon to ride south with an honorguard of free folk. I still personally lean more to the Melisandre set up, but to each their own.

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3 hours ago, CAllDSmith said:

This still doesn't explain how Ramsay would know about the 'wildling princess' or why Ramsay would request her or Mance's son. None of the wildlings would have referred to Val as a 'wildling princess' or Mance's son as a 'prince'. Nor is there a logical or illogical line of questioning that would have led to any of the spearwives mentioning Val or Mance's son. The only line of questioning that would get Mance to mention it would be if he said something like "Snow holds my son, who is being watched by his mother's sister and that's why I came to free his sister." But there is no line of questioning that gets anyone at Winterfell to refer to the sister of a Queen as a princess. 

I agree that the Wildling women wouldn't call Val a princess, but they would report what they SAW. Ramsay would interpret it in his fashion. GRRM tells the story from certain POVs. From those POVs you have to be willing to shift your focus to what other people in that scene are seeing and experiencing to understand how information travels.

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On 4/12/2019 at 2:19 PM, Nowy Tends said:

No, it doesn't make sense, that precisely the point. To begin with how could Ramsay know about "the wildling princess"?

He tortured Mance.  He knows everything the turncloak crow knows.  Then he tortured his prisoners of war from his victory over Stannis.  

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14 hours ago, Victor Newman said:

Lady Dustin has the knowledge!!!!!  I think not.  Ramsay has all of the knowledge needed to write that letter after forcing the wildlings to talk.  Whoever proposed the theories making claims it was her are incorrect.  Mance has more knowledge than Lady Dustin but if he wrote that letter he would have said "I want your sister back" instead of "I want my bride back" because Abel doesn't know she's fake.  The composer of the letter obviously knows she's a fake.  

What motivations could somebody like Lady Dustin and Mance Rayder have for writing that letter?  Nothing whatsoever.  And these two had nothing whatsoever to do with that letter.  So yeah.  They don't have a reason and they don't have the facts to write the pink letter.  

Right because Theon hid the truth from the wildlings. Mance doesn't know.  The writer knew she's not the real Arya.  We can rule out Mance Rayder as a suspect.  

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Just now, Bowen 747 said:

Petyr doesn't have all of the information needed to put that letter together.  

What information does Petyr not have?

Or rather, what information can Petyr not find out on his own (via spies) or through correspondence with Roose Bolton. Let's not forget where fake Arya came from. The Lannisters officiated the deal but Jeyne Poole just didn't fall out of the sky into Roose Bolton's lap.

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Just now, Jabar of House Titan said:

What information does Petyr not have?

Or rather, what information can Petyr not find out on his own (via spies) or through correspondence with Roose Bolton. Let's not forget where fake Arya came from. The Lannisters officiated the deal but Jeyne Poole just didn't fall out of the sky into Roose Bolton's lap.

He wouldn't know about Val.  He wouldn't know about Jon's lie.  Jon kept the mission to get Arya secret.  Petyr has never met Jon.  For all he knew, the boy was honorable and like most men would stick to his duties.

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On 4/12/2019 at 1:06 PM, Shpati said:

Anyway... my question is why? Why would one write such a cryptic letter hoping Jon gets the details that these theories suggest?

They wouldnt. 

On 4/12/2019 at 1:06 PM, Shpati said:

Why would they think that is a smart idea?

They wouldn't, b/c it isn’t. 

On 4/12/2019 at 1:06 PM, Shpati said:

What were they trying to get Jon to do?

Each alternative put forth (Stannis, Mance, Barbrey Dustin, Melisandre, and others) has many subgroups, so to speak. Not everyone who believe Stannis wrote it, think he did it for the exact same reasons or w/ the same goal in mind. Same for the other proposed authors. One thing we can be sure of, though... unless the objective was to get Jon stabbed, it failed miserably. 

I also think that all the proposed authors But Ramsay are too smart to make such a huge gamble on a totally uncertain outcome. 

On 4/12/2019 at 1:06 PM, Shpati said:

If their letter plan was a success, what would be the outcome and what would they gain?

Impossible to tell. But as I’ve said, for each candidate there are a few different explanations/justifications. But none are really satisfying IMO.  

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