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Headless Wolf

Euron's victories (TWOW spoilers)

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So I've seen a lot of theories for how the coming wars will play out in TWOW, and I thought I'd make my own predictions for how things will turn out, mostly for the ironborn, who I see winning a lot of victories in order to establish Euron as one of the book's biggest antagonists. Here's how I see the war going:

1. Garlan retakes the Shields: We know that before Garlan could take Brightwater Keep from the Florents, the ironborn took the Shields, and Garlan instead began assembling men and ships to retake the islands, his ships being mostly trading vessels, fishing boats, and pleasure barges, with the Redwyne Fleet so far away. I anticipate Garlan sailing for the Shields, landing men on all four islands, and taking them back, with little ironborn resistance at sea, since Euron wants the new lords of the Shields to be defeated and die, thus ridding himself of rivals for the throne such as Maron Volmark, and weakening Victarion by getting his man Nute the Barber killed. Garlan will slay Ser Harras Harlaw in single combat and take his sword Nightfall, only to find the ironborn under the command of Hotho Harlaw, now Rodrik the Reader's undisputed heir (further weakening Asha's strongest ally as Hotho supported Euron), attacking his ragtag fleet, taking or sinking most of Garlan's ships and leaving him stranded on Greyshield, with his host split among the four Shields, and blockaded by Hotho Harlaw so no support or food can get to him. 

2. The Ironborn move on Oldtown: I anticipate most of the ironborn raiding up the Mander will be under the command of Lord Rodrik the Reader. A learned man, and a student of history, I believe the Reader will have his men carry their ships overland from the Mander to the Honeywine, like Harwin Hardhand did in the riverlands, and sweep down the Honeywine, taking Brightwater Keep. This will be an easily won battle since most of the Florent men are off with Stannis and Garlan had yet to claim the castle, making it almost certain the castle is lightly held. The ironborn will then put the castle to the torch, a nice middle finger to Garlan for killing Rodrik's heir Ser Harras, and then continuing down the Honeywine to Oldtown, forcing Leyton Hightower's sons to pull back to the city to defend it rather than sail down the Whispering Sound to attack Euron as he prepares to face the Redwyne Fleet. I believe Lord Harlaw will then send men amongst the people fleeing the ironborn to Oldtown, posing as refugees, like Leyton's ancestor Ormund Hightower did at Tumbleton, to start riots and weaken the defenders from the inside when Euron shows up to attack the city. 

3. The Battle in the Redwyne Straits: The Redwyne Fleet is just coming around Dorne to deal with Euron, whose ships are raiding the Arbor, and has been racked with storms coming around Dorne. Victarion's thought "What would the Crow's Eye do?" before commanding his men to "sail the straits" is, I believe, foreshadowing that Euron will battle Redwyne in the Redwyne straits, possibly defeating them by sailing half his ships around the Arbor and the rest down the straits, to trap Redwyne as Stannis trapped Victarion at Fair Isle. In the Forsaken, Euron's captains say he has sacrificed thousands of people to the sea, and the Drowned God has given them victories. It has also been noted previously that blood in the water brings krakens to the surface to attack ships, which will likely happen here, with Euron defeating and killing Paxter Redwyne, only to feign defeat and disguise himself as Redwyne (through a glamor or just by sailing captured Redwyne ships up the Whispering Sound, flying Redwyne and Tyrell banners). With the Hightowers believing that Euron was defeated, they will welcome Redwyne into Oldtown only to find the ironborn pouring off his ships to

4. Sack Oldtown: Rodrik's men having infiltrated the city will start riots in the streets and attempt to open the gates, while Euron's men disguised as Redwyne will join them in sacking the city. The Hightower will be too strong for them but I imagine Euron taunting Leyton Hightower with his son Baelor's smiling head. Euron's men will despoil and burn the Starry Sept, bringing the Warrior's Sons and Poor Fellows from King's Landing for revenge, freeing up Cersei to murder the High Sparrow, and likely convince the Hightowers to join Aegon, seeing their kin murdered and their city sacked while Mace Tyrell sits in King's Landing doing nothing to protect them and his sons fail to do so in his stead. Euron will be on the verge of sacking the Citadel as well but Alleras (Sarella) the Sphinx will offer him the obsidian candles in exchange for him sparing the Citadel and those within (and Euron seems to be at least tolerant of maesters so it's possible he will spare the Citadel), and swear to serve him as foreshadowed in the Forsaken, likely planning to murder Euron at her earliest opportunity. We don't know what power the candles have, but since we know fire and obsidian have obvious magical significance, it is possible Euron will accept if he believes the candles can show him visions of the future, and he has an affinity for magic. Or he'll take the candles and sack the Citadel anyway, either is possible. 

Thoughts? 

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On 4/17/2019 at 1:34 PM, Headless Wolf said:

1. Garlan retakes the Shields: 

2. The Ironborn move on Oldtown: 

3. The Battle in the Redwyne Straits: 

4. Sack Oldtown:

I’ve finally read The Forsaken chapter, so I can comment on this.

1) Much of this is likely to happen, unless Garlan hears of the approaching battle in the Straits, so instead he sends ship to simply guard the mouth of the Mander, and he goes on land to Oldtown. A possible fight with Ser Harras would certainly be interesting. Unfortunately, how will we hear of all this? Not through first-hand accounts, so we’ll see how much detail we get.

2) Not sure about this. The Reader is a history buff, for sure, but as he tells Asha, he prefers his history written in ink, not blood. He's a cautious man, and pulling the Harwin maneuver is bold, but risky. If their enemy finds out, the ironborn would be screwed when crossing over land like this. Also, the Reader doesn’t like Euron much, so I don’t think he’ll exert himself any more than he needs to so he doesn’t piss off Euron. However, the refugee move is something he would do, I think. But maybe at Highgarden instead, pitting himself against another “nerd” Willas Tyrell.

3) I don’t think a battle like at Fair Isle can happen in the Redwyne Straits. The Straits look at least twice as wide as the Fair Isle straights. And the Arbor is a bigger island for Euron to circumnavigate. Also, in The Forsaken chapter, it’s mentioned that the Hightower ships are moving southwards to take Euron’s fleet from behind, though he’s aware of this. Euron’s ace in this battle will be the magic he has access to. Storms, krakens like you said, and other fortuitous events that will swing the scales in his favor. In terms of other tactics, I predict the Redwyne fleet will be over-stretched. Paxter will be desperate to get to the Arbor, and his swifter ships will be far ahead of the bigger, more ponderous ships. So Euron will allow the swifter ships to pass, while he strikes at the ships that are lagging, from hidden coves. Paxter’s flagship will likely be among the lagging ones, and as you said, Paxter will die.

4) A sack of Oldtown is likely to happen thanks to subterfuge tactics. I agree the Hightower will prove too strong for the ironborn, but I think Euron will simply sack the Citadel. Maybe Alleras and Sam flee with the glass candles. And I wonder if Marwyn managed to get away in time, or is he stuck there. If he’s still there, maybe he’ll do a spell to allow for Sam’s and Alleras’s escape.

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I think Aeron is going to be the POV for the naval battle against the Redwynes before "going to dine with the Drowned God" (i.e. die)

Samwell is going to be the POV for the fight between the Hightowers and the Ironborn and the sacking of Oldtown. I think Euron is going to torture Sam, take the books and artifacts he wants before destroying the Citadel.

Yes, the Citadel will suffer from a fate worse than the Library of Alexandria.

Hey, this is GRRM's high fantasy, pseudo-sci fi retelling of what would happen in medieval Europe didn't fall into the Dark Ages of superstition, war, famine and disease until a couple of decades after Rome fell

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The Ironborn, the Shields and the Reach are a side-show.  Did not Euron say as much?  The main characters have all moved on.  

Euron has sailed on, in the Silence, and has taken Aeron with him.  Marwyn has sailed off, on the Cinnamon Wind, and has probably taken his 2 buddies with him, along with Aemon's books of lore, Aemon's kingsblood corpse, Gilly's kingsblood baby (all for use in blood-magic rituals), and Sam's face.  All that remains in Oldtown is Sam's corpse, minus his face of course.

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1. is definitely happening

2. I don't think so

3. It will happen but tit will have more to d with magic as someone said above.

4. This is tricky. It could definitely happen.

Let's not forget that Dorne may have a part to play in all these as well.

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Perhaps George wants to recreate a similar situation to the Ironborn controlling the river lands during Aegons conquest. But with the Reach instead.

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2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Don’t forget that there is a Faceless Man in the Citadel now, too.

But is that bad news for Sam or bad news for Euron? Is it saying something about Arya's future? Is it bad news for Daenerys since the Faceless Man appears to be after a book about killing dragons...or is it bad news for everyone who happens to be on the Iron Bank's bad side?

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On 5/29/2019 at 10:07 PM, Platypus Rex said:

The Ironborn, the Shields and the Reach are a side-show.  Did not Euron say as much?  The main characters have all moved on.  

Euron has sailed on, in the Silence, and has taken Aeron with him.  Marwyn has sailed off, on the Cinnamon Wind, and has probably taken his 2 buddies with him, along with Aemon's books of lore, Aemon's kingsblood corpse, Gilly's kingsblood baby (all for use in blood-magic rituals), and Sam's face.  All that remains in Oldtown is Sam's corpse, minus his face of course.

LOL!  Marwyn's ominous words to Pate the FM about Sam: "take care of him".  Not forgetting that Pate has the stolen key which opens what doors?  I'm guessing at least to a room of forbidden knowledge in the library.  I expect Sam will stumble upon information about the broken horn, quite by accident while looking at books about the Others.

I'm half expecting the FM to help Sam find what he needs and then get him out of the Citadel as quickly as possible. 

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On 3/12/2020 at 4:25 AM, BlackLightning said:

But is that bad news for Sam or bad news for Euron? Is it saying something about Arya's future? Is it bad news for Daenerys since the Faceless Man appears to be after a book about killing dragons...or is it bad news for everyone who happens to be on the Iron Bank's bad side?

If we consider that Euron maybe hired a FM to kill Balon and give to them an egg, I am probably sure that he still work in some kind of way with them. And now than he arrive to Oldtown where the mostly known FM is, I think something very big and very bad will happen here, but definitely not bad for Euron. 

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On 4/17/2019 at 8:34 PM, Headless Wolf said:

3. The Battle in the Redwyne Straits: The Redwyne Fleet is just coming around Dorne to deal with Euron, whose ships are raiding the Arbor, and has been racked with storms coming around Dorne. Victarion's thought "What would the Crow's Eye do?" before commanding his men to "sail the straits" is, I believe, foreshadowing that Euron will battle Redwyne in the Redwyne straits, possibly defeating them by sailing half his ships around the Arbor and the rest down the straits, to trap Redwyne as Stannis trapped Victarion at Fair Isle. In the Forsaken, Euron's captains say he has sacrificed thousands of people to the sea, and the Drowned God has given them victories. It has also been noted previously that blood in the water brings krakens to the surface to attack ships, which will likely happen here, with Euron defeating and killing Paxter Redwyne, only to feign defeat and disguise himself as Redwyne (through a glamor or just by sailing captured Redwyne ships up the Whispering Sound, flying Redwyne and Tyrell banners). With the Hightowers believing that Euron was defeated, they will welcome Redwyne into Oldtown only to find the ironborn pouring off his ships to

I think Euron will do a double Fair Isle-like battle.

He will put himself at the center.

The Redwynes and the Hightowers will encircle him from both sides.

The main trust of the ironborn will come from one of the sides

Another trust of ironborn and Basilik Isles corsairs will come from the other side

Bonus: Krakens

 

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On 5/6/2020 at 4:50 PM, LynnS said:

LOL!  Marwyn's ominous words to Pate the FM about Sam: "take care of him".  Not forgetting that Pate has the stolen key which opens what doors?  I'm guessing at least to a room of forbidden knowledge in the library.  I expect Sam will stumble upon information about the broken horn, quite by accident while looking at books about the Others.

I'm half expecting the FM to help Sam find what he needs and then get him out of the Citadel as quickly as possible. 

I think it would be pretty stupid for the broken horn to be something important. It doesn t make sense that our pal bloodraven wouldn t send dreams about it if it was important. If he can send coldhands and dreams to bran if the horn was very important he would have done the same to jon or sam (and he had plenty of oportunities to do so).

At most I think it might be a horn people used when the NW was created and might have some effect on the others or be a simbol of something.

If sam finds something it must be about the others or dragons. We know danny won t be the only person to have a dragon so other people will need information about them.

What annoys me about the sam storyline is that it would be pretty stupid if he just returns to the NW after a short stay in the citadel where he easily gains a lot of important information. On the other hand him becoming euron's prisoner or galivating around westeros giving us a pov about the efect of these new wars wouldn t be that great either. MAybe him sacrificing himself to save aleras and making her promise to deliver some important information/books to the NW would be a good storyline.

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11 minutes ago, divica said:

 On the other hand him becoming euron's prisoner or galivating around westeros giving us a pov about the efect of these new wars wouldn t be that great either. MAybe him sacrificing himself to save aleras and making her promise to deliver some important information/books to the NW would be a good storyline.

Sorry I didn't give the OP the gravitas it deserves.  I started reading the Foresaken chapter again and it made me gag.  So I've sworn off threads about Euron right now.

As for the small horn, I think it has some significance since it was found with the dragonglass cache.  But that's another topic. 

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2 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Sorry I didn't give the OP the gravitas it deserves.  I started reading the Foresaken chapter again and it made me gag.  So I've sworn off threads about Euron right now.

As for the small horn, I think it has some significance since it was found with the dragonglass cache.  But that's another topic. 

I am not saying it doesn t have some significance. Just that it can t be that important. For example, it can t be the horn of winter. It would be prety stupid for bloodraven to give that to jon and never comunicate with him via dreams or coldhands while he was north of the Wall explaining how important the horn was.

 

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8 minutes ago, divica said:

I am not saying it doesn t have some significance. Just that it can t be that important. For example, it can t be the horn of winter. It would be prety stupid for bloodraven to give that to jon and never comunicate with him via dreams or coldhands while he was north of the Wall explaining how important the horn was.

It can't be that important because it's small?  This is exactly to type of horn any brother of the Watch would carry. What if the horn has binding magic and it's broken so it can't be winded?  I'm reminded of the story about the Night King binding his brothers with magic.   Not all information is going to come from BR.  It's just as likely that Sam will discover something about it by accident in the library while researching something else.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, LynnS said:

It can't be that important because it's small?  This is exactly to type of horn any brother of the Watch would carry. What if the horn has binding magic and it's broken so it can't be winded?  I'm reminded of the story about the Night King binding his brothers with magic.   Not all information is going to come from BR.  It's just as likely that Sam will discover something about it by accident in the library while researching something else.

It isn t about size (lol). First, those things weren't buried for long because of the state of decomposition of the cape and rope. Then the horn would need a lot of writing to do magic. We just have to look at euron's dragonbinder. Then if it was something crucial bloodraven would tell either jon or sam about it. 

I can agree that it might be a magic horn that has some efect on the others. Hell, that entire package looks like someone trying to give the NW weapons to defend themselves against the other's attacking the fist of the first men. So it can't be useless. It just can't be someting too important...

 

Edit And I am not even sure if the horn is broken or if simple isn t suposed to emit sound heard by humans. 

Edited by divica

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1 minute ago, divica said:

So it can't be useless. It just can't be someting too important...

Jon did describe it as a warhorn.  I think it's importance has yet to be disclosed.  It's because it seems so insignificant that we might be in for a surprise. It's now in Sam of Horn Hill's possession, so I think it will be most relevant to him. 

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1 minute ago, LynnS said:

Jon did describe it as a warhorn.  I think it's importance has yet to be disclosed.  It's because it seems so insignificant that we might be in for a surprise. It's now in Sam of Horn Hill's possession, so I think it will be most relevant to him. 

It would be interesting if it has some effect on euron. He is known to dabble in magic so there is a chance it might do something...

 

As long as it isn t the horn of winter I think almost anything is possible,

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, divica said:

It would be interesting if it has some effect on euron. He is known to dabble in magic so there is a chance it might do something...As long as it isn t the horn of winter I think almost anything is possible,

I hope like hell that he gets out of Euron's way in a hurry and Sam never ends up in the hold of the Silence. He still has to send Gilly off to Horn Hill.  He has already seen one of Euron's ships wrecked in the Bay.  Euron isn't too far behind.   I can see Jaqen, Sarella and Sam making a dash for it together, at some point. 

Edited by LynnS

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