Ep3 Death Odds

[legba11]

I don't think it's a large leap to assume that several to many of our long time friends on GoT will shuffle off this mortal coil by 10:30 EDT Sunday.

I thought it would be fun to make some sports book style odds for who dies in Ep3.  I am listing my odds and some reasons, please list yours or why others are too long/short...

(FYI 1/10 means something is very likely, 10/1 means rather unlikely and so on...)

Theon: 1/50  He dies defending Bran.  I would bet everything I own on it.

Jon: 100/1  It would be a shocker to kill him this early, but anything is on the table.  

Dany: 500/1 Even more of a shocker. if so she would have some sort of acceptance of Jon as King before it happens.

Sansa: 1000/1 She is not likely at risk until very late int he episode when the Crypts are breached or zombified.  It would be a very odd choice.

Bran 5/1  If he dies this season, I think it happens here, but I think he is a survivor.  He has had his most important moment already which makes him vulnerable.

Tyrion: 2/1  He has a great plan, it saves the people in the crypts, but Pod isn't there to save him this time.  He gets his heroic end, sadly too young, sober and penis not in use.

Jaime: 25/1 In many ways he seems very likely to die. but not before Cersei is resolved so he lives.

Brienne: 1/2  She had her hero moment, which is likely the kiss of doom.  I'd be sad to see it, as she brings out the most interesting parts of Jaime and Tormund.

Pod:  1/5  No way he lives if Brienne dies and possible he dies saving her.  Bad news for our song boy with the magic wang.

Tormund 1/10: He had his moments in Eps 1 and 2, he is toast.  Probably fighting a zombie giant.

Davos: 10/1.  The she needs it's audience surrogate and he is still it.  He needs to die at sea if he dies.

Sandor: Even.  He seems more likely to die than most, but I see this as a bit of a rug pull.  He has a chance to brave fire and be a hero and turns tail again, breaking our hearts.  He isn't seen until Ep 6 where is boarding a ship for Pentos, and is never heard from again.

 

 

I'm sure I missed some...

[Buckyball]

I'd say Jorah, Lady Mormont, Beric Dondarrian, and Greyworm are all in terrible danger. Dolorous Edd, Missandei, Sam, Gilly, and little Sam are hard to predict. You should probably establish odds for all three dragons, too! Bronn might show up.

[cirah1712]

4 hours ago, legba11 said:

I don't think it's a large leap to assume that several to many of our long time friends on GoT will shuffle off this mortal coil by 10:30 EDT Sunday.

I thought it would be fun to make some sports book style odds for who dies in Ep3.  I am listing my odds and some reasons, please list yours or why others are too long/short...

(FYI 1/10 means something is very likely, 10/1 means rather unlikely and so on...)

Theon: 1/50  He dies defending Bran.  I would bet everything I own on it.

Jon: 100/1  It would be a shocker to kill him this early, but anything is on the table.  

Dany: 500/1 Even more of a shocker. if so she would have some sort of acceptance of Jon as King before it happens.

Sansa: 1000/1 She is not likely at risk until very late int he episode when the Crypts are breached or zombified.  It would be a very odd choice.

Bran 5/1  If he dies this season, I think it happens here, but I think he is a survivor.  He has had his most important moment already which makes him vulnerable.

Tyrion: 2/1  He has a great plan, it saves the people in the crypts, but Pod isn't there to save him this time.  He gets his heroic end, sadly too young, sober and penis not in use.

Jaime: 25/1 In many ways he seems very likely to die. but not before Cersei is resolved so he lives.

Brienne: 1/2  She had her hero moment, which is likely the kiss of doom.  I'd be sad to see it, as she brings out the most interesting parts of Jaime and Tormund.

Pod:  1/5  No way he lives if Brienne dies and possible he dies saving her.  Bad news for our song boy with the magic wang.

Tormund 1/10: He had his moments in Eps 1 and 2, he is toast.  Probably fighting a zombie giant.

Davos: 10/1.  The she needs it's audience surrogate and he is still it.  He needs to die at sea if he dies.

Sandor: Even.  He seems more likely to die than most, but I see this as a bit of a rug pull.  He has a chance to brave fire and be a hero and turns tail again, breaking our hearts.  He isn't seen until Ep 6 where is boarding a ship for Pentos, and is never heard from again.

 

 

I'm sure I missed some...

Have no idea what any of the odds means ( I don't understand betting odds) but I get the main jist of what your saying. I agree with you about Bran, I think he survived this battle at least. For me, I believe he is too central to the story going forward. Jon is not dying yet, nor is Daenerys, I do think maybe Sansa though. At this point I think anyone not central to the plot is a goner. That means Pod, Tormund, Grey Worm and/or Missendei, Gendry and probably Brienne are doomed. It will be so hard saying goodbye to pretty much anyone who does die, I've grown fond of most of the characters. 

[dbunting]

Likely to die

Tormund, Gendry, Brienne, Podrick, Jorah, Grey Worm Edd, Theon (dies saving Bran) Varys, Tyrion, (they die in the crypts saving other people)

Less likely but it is GOT

Davos, Jaime, Lyanna Mormont, Missande, Ghost

Least likely

Dany, Jon, Arya, Sansa, Gilley, any dragon, Nymeria (we may see her and her pack to save Arya fan fiction!!!!)  

[Nihiloth90]

People have always thought Jorah was in terrible danger. After the Greyscale death sentence, and the battles in the pits, he still managed to survive. Samwell cured Jorah's Greyscale and gave him Heartsbane. I highly doubt he was given the sword, just to fall in a battle with the White Walkers. Everyone is in danger, but I'd put money on Jorah being saved for one very particular purpose, the same way Jaime probably is.

What makes Jorah's survivability tricky to predict is the fact that he's one of the main players but he's in the background just enough so any outcome would probably come as a surprise. Jorah has had so many close calls with death, so seeing him die in an anti-climactic way might be surprising but inevitable all the same. However, I don't think that's the best they can do with him. For a character who's slipped through the cracks and dodged death so many times since the very beginning, his purpose is (probably) yet to be fulfilled.

[Lord Lyman]

Something tells me that Sandor will at least live through the "Battle for the Dawn". I say this as I want to see Clegane Bowl. 

[State Trooper]

I'm convinced one of the main characters will go and thought it might be Dany, but apparently she's seen on Dragonstone in a later trailer, so now I'm leaning more towards Tyrion or Jaime. I don't think it'll be Jon and haven't done sine he was resurrected. What was the point otherwise? And I also don't think Bran will die either.

Obviously a few of the minor characters are gonna go, but I've no idea who except for more guess work. The only two I really don't want to die are Arya, (PLEASE let her kill Cersei), and Sam, Gilly and Baby Sam. Beyond that, let battle commence!

[Nihiloth90]

24 minutes ago, State Trooper said:

I'm convinced one of the main characters will go and thought it might be Dany, but apparently she's seen on Dragonstone in a later trailer

They supposedly shot multiple scenes/endings. Would it be illegal to put a piece of footage in the trailer that was ultimately scrapped? With Jon Snow's death, Kit and much of the cast and crew, lied about his character's demise for months, if I recall-- or at the very least, they alluded that Jon was gone for good.

[Error-504]

7 hours ago, legba11 said:

I don't think it's a large leap to assume that several to many of our long time friends on GoT will shuffle off this mortal coil by 10:30 EDT Sunday.

I thought it would be fun to make some sports book style odds for who dies in Ep3.  I am listing my odds and some reasons, please list yours or why others are too long/short...

(FYI 1/10 means something is very likely, 10/1 means rather unlikely and so on...)

Theon: 1/50  He dies defending Bran.  I would bet everything I own on it.

Jon: 100/1  It would be a shocker to kill him this early, but anything is on the table.  

Dany: 500/1 Even more of a shocker. if so she would have some sort of acceptance of Jon as King before it happens.

Sansa: 1000/1 She is not likely at risk until very late int he episode when the Crypts are breached or zombified.  It would be a very odd choice.

Bran 5/1  If he dies this season, I think it happens here, but I think he is a survivor.  He has had his most important moment already which makes him vulnerable.

Tyrion: 2/1  He has a great plan, it saves the people in the crypts, but Pod isn't there to save him this time.  He gets his heroic end, sadly too young, sober and penis not in use.

Jaime: 25/1 In many ways he seems very likely to die. but not before Cersei is resolved so he lives.

Brienne: 1/2  She had her hero moment, which is likely the kiss of doom.  I'd be sad to see it, as she brings out the most interesting parts of Jaime and Tormund.

Pod:  1/5  No way he lives if Brienne dies and possible he dies saving her.  Bad news for our song boy with the magic wang.

Tormund 1/10: He had his moments in Eps 1 and 2, he is toast.  Probably fighting a zombie giant.

Davos: 10/1.  The she needs it's audience surrogate and he is still it.  He needs to die at sea if he dies.

Sandor: Even.  He seems more likely to die than most, but I see this as a bit of a rug pull.  He has a chance to brave fire and be a hero and turns tail again, breaking our hearts.  He isn't seen until Ep 6 where is boarding a ship for Pentos, and is never heard from again.

 

 

I'm sure I missed some...

Are we allowed to figure spoilers in on this, if so a couple of you odds missed the mark. 

[Error-504]

8 hours ago, legba11 said:

I don't think it's a large leap to assume that several to many of our long time friends on GoT will shuffle off this mortal coil by 10:30 EDT Sunday.

I thought it would be fun to make some sports book style odds for who dies in Ep3.  I am listing my odds and some reasons, please list yours or why others are too long/short...

Need to add the following:

Lady Mormont

Grey Worm

Alysa Karstark

missandei

Lord Royce

Gendry (come on man, how could you forget Gendry?)

Dolorous Ed

Varys

And why is it important? Because all but two of these characters will die (gendry and Varys will live)

 

Quote

(FYI 1/10 means something is very likely, 10/1 means rather unlikely and so on...)

Theon: 1/50  He dies defending Bran.  I would bet everything I own on it.

I would put him closer to 50/50

Quote

Jon: 100/1  It would be a shocker to kill him this early, but anything is on the table.  

Dany: 500/1 Even more of a shocker. if so she would have some sort of acceptance of Jon as King before it happens.

Well, the season premier gave this away so closer to 1000/1

Quote

Sansa: 1000/1 She is not likely at risk until very late int he episode when the Crypts are breached or zombified.  It would be a very odd choice.

agreed

Quote

Bran 5/1  If he dies this season, I think it happens here, but I think he is a survivor.  He has had his most important moment already which makes him vulnerable.

Too early, and we don't get a heroic moment of someone saving him if he dies (Jamie/Theon), so I would say closer to 100/1

Quote

Tyrion: 2/1  He has a great plan, it saves the people in the crypts, but Pod isn't there to save him this time.  He gets his heroic end, sadly too young, sober and penis not in use.

Too early, spoilers have him on trial and the end of the season. Also seems to imply the crypts are relatively safe at first (no dead Stark zombies)

Quote

Jaime: 25/1 In many ways he seems very likely to die. but not before Cersei is resolved so he lives.

 

Agreed, might even go higher than that  50/1

Quote

Brienne: 1/2  She had her hero moment, which is likely the kiss of doom.  I'd be sad to see it, as she brings out the most interesting parts of Jaime and Tormund.

5/1 Only because I think the Jamie's arc needs her

Quote

Pod:  1/5  No way he lives if Brienne dies and possible he dies saving her.  Bad news for our song boy with the magic wang.

1/10 can you say dead meat?

Quote

Tormund 1/10: He had his moments in Eps 1 and 2, he is toast.  Probably fighting a zombie giant.

50/50 His death makes sense, but only if the entirety of the Wildlings themselves are wiped out, without him, we essentially lose the Wildling story line, and they become an afterthought, like the Dothraki

Quote

Davos: 10/1.  The she needs it's audience surrogate and he is still it.  He needs to die at sea if he dies.

 

Quote

Sandor: Even.  He seems more likely to die than most, but I see this as a bit of a rug pull.  He has a chance to brave fire and be a hero and turns tail again, breaking our hearts.  He isn't seen until Ep 6 where is boarding a ship for Pentos, and is never heard from again.

Nope no way he dies, 50/1

Quote

 

 

I'm sure I missed some...

Quite a few actually.

Jorah  10/1

Sam  1000/1

Gilly 1000/1

Little Sam 1000/1

[MinscS2]

There was a whiff of finality regarding some of the characters in the last episode.
I have a feeling that these characters, especially if their arcs have gone more or less full circle, are in dire danger of getting killed of in the next episode.

These characters would (among others) include:
- Brienne. 
- Tormund.
- Berric.
- Greyworm.
- Dolorous Edd.
- Jorah or Lyanna Mormont.

I would put Sandor and Jamie on this list, but they both more or less has something they "need" to do before dying.

Some of the people I expect to die at some point will be hiding in the crypts, so I don't see how they die in the next episode unless the crypts caves in, which while not impossible seems unlikely. These include Missandei and Varys.

Alysa, Royce, Pod and Theon is up in the air for me. I can see them go either way. 

As for safe bets, all the Starks, Targaryens, Sam & Gilly, Davos, Tyrion are likely to survive for at least another episode.

[Gertrude]

2 hours ago, MinscS2 said:

These characters would (among others) include:
- Brienne. 
- Tormund.
- Berric.
- Greyworm.
- Dolorous Edd.
- Jorah or Lyanna Mormont.

I agree with this list. Berric seems to be a given, but that's not very impactful. Greyworm or Missy - Greyworm seems more logical, but Missy would be the shocker and the show loves to twist things. I think Ser Brienne is in terrible danger. I am convinced one of the Mormonts die and I think it may be Jorah. If it were him saving Lyanna, then it is a beautiful way for him to regain the honor of his house, and Sam regains Heartsbane (which is a truly minor consideration, but it seemed weird that Jorah would gain a Valyrian blade. I get the symbolism and of course it's logical that he wield it over Sam, but it still sits a bit wrong with me at gut level)

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

I worry it will be the characters you least expect. Ones in the crypt as the dead rise. 

https://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/vulture/2019/03/06/got/06-game-of-thrones-season-8-trailer-02.nocrop.w710.h2147483647.jpg

The voice?

Also feel like Jorah, Greyworm, Jaime and Theon are marked for death. I'm holding on to the idea that Gendry has had no scenes with anyone except Arya yet and Davos needs a moment with his new sons. Also they set Jon and Gendry up as Ned/Robert 2.0 when Jon just learned he's Rhaegar's son. That twist changes things. 

[State Trooper]

9 hours ago, Nihiloth90 said:

They supposedly shot multiple scenes/endings. Would it be illegal to put a piece of footage in the trailer that was ultimately scrapped? With Jon Snow's death, Kit and much of the cast and crew, lied about his character's demise for months, if I recall-- or at the very least, they alluded that Jon was gone for good.

Oh, OK. Never realised they did the multiple scenes thing. Well in that case anything's possible, I guess? We'll just have to wait and see what happens on Sunday.  (Counting the hours!)

[TheRevanchist]

Jaime is going to be the big death, sacrificing himself to save Daenerys. The little brother prophecy will be realized by Arya wearing Jaime's face.

Theon dies saving Bran. Lady Mormont dies. Lady/Ser Brienne dies. Gendry dies. Most of the people in the crypts die.

[Charlie Hustle]

Did anyone ever pick up that Samwell might survive the whole thing? Or is it just me? And tell the story, or is telling the story? Im not the smartest person here but my masters degree just kicked in and when Bran said the objective of the night king, Sam immediately ran with it..

[TheRevanchist]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Hustle said:

Did anyone ever pick up that Samwell might survive the whole thing? Or is it just me? And tell the story, or is telling the story? Im not the smartest person here but my masters degree just kicked in and when Bran said the objective of the night king, Sam immediately ran with it..

Oh yeah, the theory has been forever that he is actually the narrator of the story and is gonna write 'A Song of Ice and Fire' after everything is done. Also, GRRM has said that he is not a hero like Jon, he is more someone like Sam.

[Daemon The Black Dragon]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Hustle said:

Did anyone ever pick up that Samwell might survive the whole thing? Or is it just me? And tell the story, or is telling the story? Im not the smartest person here but my masters degree just kicked in and when Bran said the objective of the night king, Sam immediately ran with it..

Sam surviving the whole thing has been around for awhile, in both the show and the books.

[Charlie Hustle]

Yes i just found a thread here and reading through it now. But no one didnt account (or predict) for the time he sat with Bran, or even him becoming the 3ER himself. The next few episodes will confirm or deny this theory..

Also He literally interacts with everyone who been everywhere in the story. And Bran could fill in the gaps.

[Kajjo]

11 minutes ago, TheRevanchist said:

Oh yeah, the theory has been forever that he is actually the narrator of the story and is gonna write 'A Song of Ice and Fire' after everything is done. Also, GRRM has said that he is not a hero like Jon, he is more someone like Sam.

I still like that ending very much. That's a good theory and makes sense.