NBA Playoffs 2019 - Kawhi So Serious?!

[briantw]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Green led the recruiting process of Durant. That said, their chemistry is bipolar. It can be great at times and horrific at others. I’d bet that the main reason Durant leaves is because this has not gone the way he expected. He thought winning championships would validate his greatness, but all its led to is fans mocking and insulting him. It’s why people think the Knicks are in play. If he wants that validation, go revive an important yet dead franchise rather than joining a juggernaut.  

Green also called him a bitch to his face in the locker room, and I remember after they won in 2017 their owner said they couldn't have won it without Steph and Klay, then said something like, "Oh yeah Kevin was there too." 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

32 minutes ago, briantw said:

Green also called him a bitch to his face in the locker room, and I remember after they won in 2017 their owner said they couldn't have won it without Steph and Klay, then said something like, "Oh yeah Kevin was there too." 

Eh, the latter is just a simple human mistake, and the former is Draymond being Draymond. He’s the type of his person that says crazy s***, but it doesn’t mean anything. It’s just noise.

[Jaime L]

59 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Golden State is deeply at risk of choking this series away. The bad habits they’ve developed all year are still plaguing them now. They should have swept Houston, and yet I suspect they’ll drop game 5 at home.

Also, Giannis is absolutely out of this world. He is close to establishing himself as the best player in the league.

Not sure it's really choking if every game this series has been decided by two possessions or less. The dirty truth is at this point Houston is just as good as GS. What they lack in talent they make up for in feistiness and sheer want to. Whether due to wearing down or flat decline Steph/Klay really aren't any better than Gordon/Paul at this point. Draymond is looking like his old self but Tucker is just as valuable for Houston.

Each game has been, and it seems like the entire series will be, decided by Harden and Durant and their proxy war to determine the best player in the NBA. Sure Giannis is in the conversation too but we just don't know because he's never been there before in those do or die situations that decide champions. We don't know how he'll respond. Whereas Durant and Harden have been there and you can see it. They're completely carrying their teams, not backing down, guarding each other. This is fun as shit. 

 

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Not sure it's really choking if every game this series has been decided by two possessions or less. The dirty truth is at this point Houston is just as good as GS. What they lack in talent they make up for in feistiness and sheer want to. Whether due to wearing down or flat decline Steph/Klay really aren't any better than Gordon/Paul at this point. Draymond is looking like his old self but Tucker is just as valuable for Houston.

Each game has been, and it seems like the entire series will be, decided by Harden and Durant and their proxy war to determine the best player in the NBA. Sure Giannis is in the conversation too but we just don't know because he's never been there before in those do or die situations that decide champions. We don't know how he'll respond. Whereas Durant and Harden have been there and you can see it. They're completely carrying their teams, not backing down, guarding each other. This is fun as shit.  

The main thing that the Rockets have going for them is that they were literally built to beat GSW.  And it shows.  The Death lineup isn't a great matchup vs Houston, or at the very least, there aren't any glaring weak spots to exploit, while Harden can still run the offense just fine regardless of who's covering him. 

If Paul/Gordon can play Curry/Thompson to a draw, as well as the Rockets bench outplaying the Warriors, then GSW is in really big trouble.  But I am still skeptical that this is sustainable for the Rockets.  Curry/Thompson are straight better and if they pull out of their funk this series is over.

I want to believe in Houston, but I don't yet.  I think that the dragon will slay them again. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Not sure it's really choking if every game this series has been decided by two possessions or less. The dirty truth is at this point Houston is just as good as GS. What they lack in talent they make up for in feistiness and sheer want to. Whether due to wearing down or flat decline Steph/Klay really aren't any better than Gordon/Paul at this point. Draymond is looking like his old self but Tucker is just as valuable for Houston.

I wish I had written down the exact statistics, but both Curry and Klay are missing an absurd number of open shots compared to the previous series and the entire season. That’s been the difference. If they were making their shots at normal rates, the series would already be over. We can debate why they are missing their shots, but it’s an atypical result that is dictating the series. Also, I think it’s kind of silly to compare the Splash Brothers to Paul and Gordon.

Quote

Each game has been, and it seems like the entire series will be, decided by Harden and Durant and their proxy war to determine the best player in the NBA. Sure Giannis is in the conversation too but we just don't know because he's never been there before in those do or die situations that decide champions. We don't know how he'll respond. Whereas Durant and Harden have been there and you can see it. They're completely carrying their teams, not backing down, guarding each other. This is fun as shit. 

Obviously “best player” is subjective, but IMO, Harden isn’t even a top five player. He’s the best offensive player in the league right now, but that’s also in part due to his usage rate. Westbrook would average over 40 ppg if he could actually shoot.

To me there are only three guys in the conversation: KD, Giannis and Kawhi. LeBron can be the best on any given night, but I think the inevitable regression has begun.

[Rhom]

I'm surprised people are this worked up about Houston... yes, its cliché... but call me when they win a game on the road.  Until then, I'm just going to assume its going to be GSW in 7.

[Jaime L]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The main thing that the Rockets have going for them is that they were literally built to beat GSW.  And it shows.  The Death lineup isn't a great matchup vs Houston, or at the very least, there aren't any glaring weak spots to exploit, while Harden can still run the offense just fine regardless of who's covering him. 

If Paul/Gordon can play Curry/Thompson to a draw, as well as the Rockets bench outplaying the Warriors, then GSW is in really big trouble.  But I am still skeptical that this is sustainable for the Rockets.  Curry/Thompson are straight better and if they pull out of their funk this series is over.

I want to believe in Houston, but I don't yet.  I think that the dragon will slay them again. 

Agreed on all of this.

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I wish I had written down the exact statistics, but both Curry and Klay are missing an absurd number of open shots compared to the previous series and the entire season. That’s been the difference. If they were making their shots at normal rates, the series would already be over. We can debate why they are missing their shots, but it’s an atypical result that is dictating the series. Also, I think it’s kind of silly to compare the Splash Brothers to Paul and Gordon.

And if Kobe/Shaq played to their potential they would've blown out Detroit. It doesn't always work out that way in playoff basketball. Especially for teams that are coming off multiple finals appearances in a row. You just wear down, like Miami did at the end of Lebron's run there. 

Sure if this series were played in a vacuum, GS wins it 8 times out of 10, but it's not. A smart, physical team that will punch you in the mouth, like Houston, can overcome a superficially large talent discrepancy this way. And I'm fucking glad they're going to either make GS earn it or are just grab the mantle through sheer force of will.

20 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Obviously “best player” is subjective, but IMO, Harden isn’t even a top five player. He’s the best offensive player in the league right now, but that’s also in part due to his usage rate. Westbrook would average over 40 ppg if he could actually shoot.

To me there are only three guys in the conversation: KD, Giannis and Kawhi. LeBron can be the best on any given night, but I think the inevitable regression has begun.

Ok, well, time for Durant to prove it if so. If he can't carry GS over Houston think it's pretty impossible to make that claim.

But saying Harden isn't a top 5 player is absolutely nuts. 

[Jaime L]

2 minutes ago, Rhom said:

I'm surprised people are this worked up about Houston... yes, its cliché... but call me when they win a game on the road.  Until then, I'm just going to assume its going to be GSW in 7.

Didja watch the Clippers series? Winning in Oracle these days isn't some Herculean task. 
 

[Rhom]

Just now, Jaime L said:

Didja watch the Clippers series? Winning in Oracle these days isn't some Herculean task. 
 

Its not, but you know what they say about "Its not a series until the road team wins a game" and so far the Rockets are 0-2 in that department.  I fully expect GSW to win Game 5.  So the question is, can they win Game 7 on the road?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

19 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Ok, well, time for Durant to prove it if so. If he can't carry GS over Houston think it's pretty impossible to make that claim.

But saying Harden isn't a top 5 player is absolutely nuts. 

Honestly I would rather have KD, Kawhi, Giannis, LeBron and AD over Harden, and you could talk me into Curry over him too (and hell, Dame is now knocking on that door). You have to keep in mind that Harden has an insane usage rate which artificially inflates his numbers. All the guys I listed could do the same with a 40% usage rate.

And the defense. I can never get past his god awful defense.

[David Selig]

56 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Obviously “best player” is subjective, but IMO, Harden isn’t even a top five player. He’s the best offensive player in the league right now, but that’s also in part due to his usage rate. Westbrook would average over 40 ppg if he could actually shoot.

It's exactly the fact that Harden maintains really high efficiency at really high volume of shots that makes him so special this season. The more shots you take, the harder it's to maintain high scoring efficiency. 36 PPG on 60+% TS% is absurd.

And it's not just the scoring, he's a fantastic playmaker who gets the most of his teammates. Houston's offensive efficiency in the last two seasons have been amazing given their roster. For me, he''s clearly the best offensive player in the league currently and it's not close. Much better playmaker than Kawhi, Giannis or KD and the same level as a scorer.

His defense currently is not that bad either, the 2015 memes about "Haren" are way outdated.

[Maithanet]

19 minutes ago, David Selig said:

It's exactly the fact that Harden maintains really high efficiency at really high volume of shots that makes him so special this season. The more shots you take, the harder it's to maintain high scoring efficiency. 36 PPG on 60+% TS% is absurd.

Exactly.  Harden isn't a volume scorer, he is a scorer with both high volume and elite efficiency.  That is a very rare skill, and it allows Houston to stock up on guys who play good defense but can't create their own shot.  Gordon and Tucker are both great fits in Houston but without Harden those guys are an offensive liability.  If you replace Harden with another SG, even an all Star like Thompson or zomBeal, Houston is no longer a contender. 

@Tywin et al., I get it.  I share your dislike of All-Stars who play bad defense.  But what Harden is doing is a damn sight more useful than offense-only stars like Carmelo Anthony, becuase he plays offense so well it hides his teammates offensive shortcomings.  The closest comparison is the AI-Sixers that made the Finals, and Harden is a LOT more efficient than Iverson. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I’ll address the previous comments in a bit, but I wanted to come here and do a mini stat dump that explains the Warriors’ woes. Long story short, blame Klay:

The Warriors offensive efficiency when Klay is on floor is 113.6. When he’s off the floor, it’s 121.6

The Warriors  net efficiency (points per 100 possessions) is +.5 when Klay is on the floor. It’s +19.4 when he’s off.

The Warriors are shooting 35% from three when Klay is on the floor. They’re shooting 43% when he’s off.

(stats come Bomani Jones’ show)

[DanteGabriel]

18 hours ago, Triskele said:

That is odd!

Dang, have the deer vaulted back into being favorites in the East?  And Brogdon would potentially return at some point.  

Maybe Kyrie has only one game remaining as a Celtic.  

Good riddance to Kyrie. Seriously done with his shit.

He's not a complete enough player to be the top dog on a real contender. His bratty, whiny "leadership" style means he needs to be the number two. And if he gets whiny about being asked uncomfortable questions by the 95% docile Boston media, have a fun fucking time bringing your fragile, entitled ass to the Knicks. Kyrie and KD, the brittlest superstars in the NBA, want to play in New York? Please Lord, make it so.

(Sorry, Relic.)

This is not to say that I'm all that surprised by the way this series has gone. Game one was an outlier. Giannis is Doctor Hulk now.

[Rhom]

Just now, DanteGabriel said:

Good riddance to Kyrie. Seriously done with his shit.

He's not a complete enough player to be the top dog on a real contender. His bratty, whiny leadership style means he needs to be the number two. And if he gets whiny about being asked uncomfortable questions by the 95% docile Boston media, have a fun fucking time bringing your fragile, whining, entitled ass to the Knicks. Kyrie and KD, the brittlest superstars in the NBA, want to play in New York? Have fucking fun with that.

(Sorry, Relic.)

This is not to say that I'm all that surprised by the way this series has gone. Game one was an outlier. Giannis is Doctor Hulk now.

Listening to Stephen A. show today, they played a clip of Jalen Rose talking about the Celtics.  Basically, he argued that pre Kyrie, the Celtics played a space and shoot style where they passed the ball and whoever was open shot.  He pointed out that Al Horford at center was their assist leader the year before Kyrie got there.  Then you bring in a ball dominant guard who has to have the ball in his hands to be effective and it messed everything up.

Then Stephen A went off on a rant about how their chemistry got screwed up because they put Gordon Heyward into the starting line-up at the start of the season even though he wasn't ready to be back yet and it killed the confidence of Jalen Brown/Jayson Tatum and caused them to resent the situation.  All downhill ever since.

I usually don't like his rants, but its hard for me to poke holes in either of those scenarios.

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Then Stephen A went off on a rant about how their chemistry got screwed up because they put Gordon Heyward into the starting line-up at the start of the season even though he wasn't ready to be back yet and it killed the confidence of Jalen Brown/Jayson Tatum and caused them to resent the situation.  All downhill ever since.

Other than the fact that he was a highly priced free agent who got injured immediately, it is hard to see why Gordon Hayward would be the problem.  Hayward is quite capable of being an effective secondary player, unlike Kyrie.  If Brown and Tatum were stunted by his arrival, they need to get over it, this isn't little league.  

[Rhom]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Other than the fact that he was a highly priced free agent who got injured immediately, it is hard to see why Gordon Hayward would be the problem.  Hayward is quite capable of being an effective secondary player, unlike Kyrie.  If Brown and Tatum were stunted by his arrival, they need to get over it, this isn't little league.  

That was part of the argument.  Brown/Tatum were still so young they thought the league was a meritocracy.  And that the injury changed everything for Hayward and the Cs.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, David Selig said:

It's exactly the fact that Harden maintains really high efficiency at really high volume of shots that makes him so special this season. The more shots you take, the harder it's to maintain high scoring efficiency. 36 PPG on 60+% TS% is absurd.

Isn't it fair to argue though that his advanced metrics are distorted by his ability to draw (often times BS) fouls? It's pretty common to see him have an awful shooting night while still scoring over 30 points. 

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And it's not just the scoring, he's a fantastic playmaker who gets the most of his teammates. Houston's offensive efficiency in the last two seasons have been amazing given their roster. For me, he''s clearly the best offensive player in the league currently and it's not close. Much better playmaker than Kawhi, Giannis or KD and the same level as a scorer.

I will grant you that he is an excellent playmaker, but the thing is I think a lot of the other elite players could replicate what he's doing if they were in that system. Take Steve Nash as an example. His assist rate made sizable jump once D'Antoni took over the Suns. Same thing happened with Harden in Houston. 

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His defense currently is not that bad either, the 2015 memes about "Haren" are way outdated.

I think the fairest statement is that he's gone from among the worst in the league to just worst among All-Star caliber players, and he's still not a very good defender outside of the final minutes of a close game. And that last part is what's frustrating. He isn't actually a terrible defender, but he rarely tries. I cannot respect that.

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

 

@Tywin et al., I get it.  I share your dislike of All-Stars who play bad defense.  But what Harden is doing is a damn sight more useful than offense-only stars like Carmelo Anthony, becuase he plays offense so well it hides his teammates offensive shortcomings.  The closest comparison is the AI-Sixers that made the Finals, and Harden is a LOT more efficient than Iverson. 

I mean, that's fair, but Melo was never anything like what we're seeing Harden do on the offensive side of the ball. And it's not like I'm arguing that Harden is trash or anything close to it. I just have him ranked at sixth or seveth, which gets back to my previous statement that he's not in my top 5. My top five is KD, Kawhi, Giannis, LeBron and AD in no exact order (due to constant re-ranking). All five of those guys are elite offensive players like Harden, but with the exception of "Regular Season LeBron,"* they're also elite defensive players too. That makes me value them more than Harden.

 

*I do assume LeBron would have actually played defense in the playoffs.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

He's not a complete enough player to be the top dog on a real contender.

I think this is ultimately the issue. Of the remain teams, Boston can't say they'd have the best player in any hypothetical match up. Boston is also falling victim to what's been hurting Toronto in past years: reliance on depth. Boston easily has the deepest team, and they might have the most overall talent, but that doesn't matter in the playoffs when rotations tighten if you don't have an elite player.

[David Selig]

44 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Isn't it fair to argue though that his advanced metrics are distorted by his ability to draw (often times BS) fouls? It's pretty common to see him have an awful shooting night while still scoring over 30 points. 

Fouls are part of the game, and the ability to draw fouls has been a key part of the skill set of most elite scorers since Mikan's days. And the vast majority of the calls he gets are legit under current rules. Is it annoying and ugly to watch? Also, his effective field goal percentage in the last two seasons (scoring efficiency without FTs taken into account) has been 54.1%, which is above the league average and fantastic for his usage rate, especially considering that the almost all of his shots are unassisted.

As for defense, I think his effort level this season has been pretty good, especially once Paul and Capela came back and he didn't have to score 40 in every game to keep the offense afloat. His defensive stats show him as an average defender for his position, which given his offensive load is not bad at all. His ability to defend almost anyone in the post is huge for the Rockets' switching defense. The Rockets in the second half of both this and last season were an elite defense with him playing 38 MPG and they have hold their own on this end against GSW's superteam in 2 straight postseasons. His advanced defensive stats this season are solid too. He's not as good as the superstar SFs on this end, but offensively only LeBron is anywhere near him.