NBA Playoffs 2019 - Kawhi So Serious?!

[Proudfeet]

9 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I'm not sure how much credit I should give a team for embracing a ridiculous defensive strategy that is almost guaranteed to fail.  The Jazz were a top 5 team by a lot of advanced metrics this year, and they just lost 4-1 in the first round.  

Eh, I caught the end of the fourth game where they won. They didn't use that strategy, they were 90 degrees to his left instead of being 180 behind him. 

Anyway, while the first two games were blowouts, they won the fourth and were down one in the last minute in the fifth. I don't think its too much of a stretch to say that it became more competitive because they adjusted their strategy. Maybe this was a step too far, but I wouldn't call it ridiculous. You deny the three and let Gobert contest the two. The alternative being let Harden shoot his step back three and hope he misses. It seems reasonable on paper at least. 

Edit - I just checked and they made the Rockets score ~15 points less in their last three games than the first two games. They just didn't manage to score enough to take advantage.

[Slurktan]

So colour me a raptors fan but Philly is done.  At most 5 games.

[SkynJay]

Had the pleasure of going to game 7, a first for me.  The noise for the final 3 minutes was insane.  Coach Pop was on the court the final 30 seconds, his team had no idea he was yelling at them to foul.

I am so fucking stocked right now.  Jokic is the best Nugget of my lifetime (bye Melo) and he is only getting started.  Bring on Portland.  (And for the love of god don't let thw Nugs go 2 for 20 from beyond the arc again).

[Relic]

6 hours ago, Slurktan said:

So colour me a raptors fan but Philly is done.  At most 5 games.

 

[James Arryn]

So, by the league’s own admission the Houston-GS series officiating ‘errors’ in last year’s series gave GS 8 an ppg advantage. They appear determined to best it. If they’re gonna let GSW’s get away with flagrants  without even calling regular fouls, we might as well just call it a series now. I’m saying this while it’s close, because if it’s called this way it won’t stay close.

[DanteGabriel]

That Celtics game went better than I could have hoped for. Wow. I guess they do have a playoff switch.

 

But Hayward looked good for the last month of the regular season and Brown has been good too. They're back to putting in the effort on defense.

[James Arryn]

Bruce Bowened Harden all day. It’s in plain sight. 

[Ramsay B.]

It was Green too, which makes it even more surprising that it wasn’t called. Weak

[SkynJay]

10 hours ago, Triskele said:

This is where missing Nurkic is going to sting.  

I'm not sure, other than from the depth standpoint.  Jokic has eaten up Nurkic for two years on the offensive end.  And he isn't a pick and roll guy, which is the Nugget's biggest defensive deficiency.  I think the extra offense Kantor can provide is actually better for Portland here.

How do Portland fans see this?  From the Nuggets side I see I only fear CJ and Dame; keep them combined under 50 and I give the Nuggets a strong chance.  Of course, keeping Dame under 50 alone doesn't seem guaranteed these days. 

[SkynJay]

Had the Nugget's not won their first round series I would have been cussing out refs worse than Houston currently is, the myth that the Spurs don't foul was so obviously false.  So I get it, I will admit the calls went Denver's way quite a bit last night.

But game plan did make some of that happen, Malone out coached Stotts bad.  He was giving away 2 point baskets to Kantor all night to keep Lillard from shooting threes.  So Kantor was looking to bang and seeing soft defense that just let him shoot, while Joker was jamming in the paint and getting foul calls.  I will also say, I never knew Dame could sell a flop so bad; he got the call twice early (once for 3 freebies) and it probably cost him a few real foul calls later in the game.

That said, that game is how the Nugget's play in the regular season.  It did not look like a playoff game at all, and that is bad for the Blazers.  If the games don't tighten up like they usually do in the playoffs Portland has no chance.  If they figure out how to contain either Murry or Jokic then this series will be competitive. 

And I don't expect Portland will throw the ball away so inexplicably a second time, so of course that would help as well.

[Maithanet]

I'm glad the Sixers won last night, and I hope Houston and Milwaukee win tonight.  If so the playoffs will really start heating up. 

9 hours ago, Triskele said:

PTI guys were joking about how much this series would be the one that would get the least attention nationally which is probably true, but basketball-wise it's got a lot of potential.  

It's not just probably true, it's undeniably true.  Whoever wins this series will be big underdogs to the Rockets/Warriors winner, and if they somehow came through that they'll be underdogs to the East champ.  The other three series have two teams that can all realistically be at least conference champs and maybe, if things go well, NBA champs.  Nuggets/Blazers is for bragging rights of making the WCF. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I think the huge difference is that Denver is completely different from OKC. OKC has two superstars and not much else, and in that series one was hurt and the other was super inefficient. That’s something you can contain. Denver, OTOH, has one superstar who is super atypical and a lot of guys around him he can kick it out to. Portland is going to struggle unless Dame goes berserk for four games, and I suspect that won’t happen.

[James Arryn]

So, the officiating tonight in Houston @ GSW ought to be interesting, considering the official review video they cited to complain about outright advantage. First, I think given Harden’s unpopularity it will backfire in public, but second according to Doughnehy’s(?) book refs absolutely hate it when teams put together videos that get them called on the carpet, as for them it’s a ton of extra work they have to put in, and this is where actual ref vendettas often begin. 

I get why they did it...apologized to last year after the playoffs and then right back to it this year (5 clear Bowen rule violations last game on Harden alone, anyone remember Durant out of bounds stroll earlier this year, etc)....it must feel like ‘well, it’s not going to correct itself’, but that being true I think it’s unlikely to make things better on slightly more likely to make them worse. 

[SkynJay]

44 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

So, the officiating tonight in Houston @ GSW ought to be interesting, considering the official review video they cited to complain about outright advantage. First, I think given Harden’s unpopularity it will backfire in public, but second according to Doughnehy’s(?) book refs absolutely hate it when teams put together videos that get them called on the carpet, as for them it’s a ton of extra work they have to put in, and this is where actual ref vendettas often begin. 

I get why they did it...apologized to last year after the playoffs and then right back to it this year (5 clear Bowen rule violations last game on Harden alone, anyone remember Durant out of bounds stroll earlier this year, etc)....it must feel like ‘well, it’s not going to correct itself’, but that being true I think it’s unlikely to make things better on slightly more likely to make them worse. 

I think it backfires spectacularly.  Refs are a tough breed but they know when they get played and they don't like it.  In the Spurs/Nuggets series Patty Mills got 8 free throws on obvious flops in game 2.  He couldn't buy a foul call the rest of the series.  Now a player like Harden has too much clout to be ignored (and is a hell of a lot smarter than Patty Mills).  But a flaw in the Rocket's game is their reliance on foul shots; it has never carried over at the same rate in the playoffs and a video of grievances won't change that.

I am biased here, but while I saw issues in the officiating the closeouts were not as problematic as Rocket's twitter seemed to think.  The Bowen rule is designed for player safety.  The Rockets have tried to take advantage of it by kicking feet out on every shot and making their landing zone so big no defender can ever closeout on a shot.  The refs are in playoff mode too, they don't want to be an unwitting sixth man falling victim to a new way of flopping.  

 

[James Arryn]

19 minutes ago, SkynJay said:

I think it backfires spectacularly.  Refs are a tough breed but they know when they get played and they don't like it.  In the Spurs/Nuggets series Patty Mills got 8 free throws on obvious flops in game 2.  He couldn't buy a foul call the rest of the series.  Now a player like Harden has too much clout to be ignored (and is a hell of a lot smarter than Patty Mills).  But a flaw in the Rocket's game is their reliance on foul shots; it has never carried over at the same rate in the playoffs and a video of grievances won't change that.

I am biased here, but while I saw issues in the officiating the closeouts were not as problematic as Rocket's twitter seemed to think.  The Bowen rule is designed for player safety.  The Rockets have tried to take advantage of it by kicking feet out on every shot and making their landing zone so big no defender can ever closeout on a shot.  The refs are in playoff mode too, they don't want to be an unwitting sixth man falling victim to a new way of flopping.  

 

Well, I disagree.

First, most of those were in accordance with plays the NBA specifically showed in their ‘new rule explanation’, and second, even if you want to forget the new rule the nba specifically designated, even if you argue both players are moving, the offensive player is entitled to right of way and unless the defender is set (which obviously they weren’t) that’s a normal blocking foul. 

But moreover, I disagree with this ‘refs got played’ narrative. First, because like that JVG piece where he had that general opinion, took 5 games and went over them in depth and came out thinking that not only were the fouls Harden got legit, but he actually got hacked a lot more often on drives than JVG thought/were called. (In fairness he also thought Harden often got away with travelling). That’s the norm. People say ‘Harden gets calls’, on specific instances will say ‘okay, that one was legit, but...’ and confirmation bias will continue. You can argue that the rules protect players too much, but as they stand Harden draws legit fouls. Holding him accountable for rules you don’t think ought to exist is problematic.

Lastly, if this is about the refs being played, why only against GS? And why not in the regular season? And why the pattern of ref errors as admitted by the NBA officiating review? This seems a bizarre and highly specfic form of retribution.

[James Arryn]

Just to add, for substance, the link to the piece about the report.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/nba-rumors-rockets-say-refs-cost-them-93-points-2018-west-finals

Note that the data the Rockets are using is the league’s own review on officiating errors. Which, in last year’s game 7 alone gave the Warriors an 18 point (!) advantage. This is pretty extreme. (GSW +93 pats due to official error over entire series)

Edit: and to be clear, I know the linked article contends Harden flops, this as mentioned in my initial post is the expected backlash re:Harden, i’m just citing the actual league data linked. 

Edit2: also, if this is payback, why would the officials themselves admit to missing 4 Bowen calls after looking at film at halftime?

[James Arryn]

Last point on officials before game (because I just saw it, lol):

Monty McKutchen, the VP of officiating, called the officiating on Harden last night ‘’a fundamental breakdown by the officiating crew”. 

That’s the thing, with last night, with the league’s own data, the admissions of error and advantage are explicit and clear but people don’t want to hear it because it confounds their macro perception of Harden and officiating. It’s classic confirmation bias. Unless the league had some vested interest in admitting error and apologizing for the Rockets, the officiating had been consistently, explicitly and significantly advantageous to the Warriors to degrees significantly above the margins of the games’ win/loss. So that’s explicitly costing the Rockets playoff wins, and therefore series wins. And that’s just based on the league’s own findings. That’s...not good. 

[James Arryn]

Being out this long after an eye gauge is probably very bad news. It’s not the kind of thing that’s normally requiring 15 minutes rest or w/e. Could be as bad as detached retina. I won’t comment on both injuries beyond pointing out that both were the result of Warriors reaching, making contact, and no call...

..but seriously, if Harden’s out, not sure what this means beyond the possibility Harden will be traded to Toronto in a couple years.

 

edit: yikes, no, bleeding from the eye is not good. 

[SkynJay]

That is fine.  You can dismiss dissenting opinions here but realize officiating is human.  And the article you linked drives to the point of your original question.  Refs don't like to be duped, and constant flops and manipulation WILL lead to non-calls in close situations down the line.  Especially in the playoffs.  I am an analytic geek but officiating will always be more art than science.  It will be wrong multiple times in a game.  And you'll have to forgive me if I don't take the Rockets word when they claim to be screwed by it the most.

[SkynJay]

Yikes.  Bleeding from the eye.  I hope its around the lid, eye damage scares the hell out of me.