Outcome of the Great War

[House Cambodia]

On 4/24/2019 at 2:09 PM, House Cambodia said:

Some confusion between war and battle in these posts. I'd say Winterfell is going to fall in ep 3 - i.e. the battle will be lost. Survivors will have to fall back to Kings Landing where a final battle will take place. The Undead will be defeated to leave a small remnant of our heroes to win the war.

I'd like to develop my point here. Kings Landing is actually an ideal location to prepare for the final battle in the war against the Undead. By the time the surviving remnant retreat to KL even Cercei will have woken up to the scale of the peril and will work with the rest of the forces to battle the NK. KL is on the coast, it has a fleet - against an army that suffers hydrophobia, that's a key advantage. And I'll warrant Cercei's kept some wildfire in reserve.

So I think the Undead will win at Winterfell and be defeated at Kings Landing. That leaves the bittersweet finale as the final battle between the human survivors (Jon, Dany, Sansa, Cercei?) over the Iron Throne and 7 Kingdoms.

[Darkschaar]

The dead overrun WF

Survivors head south to either the Twins or KL or IofF to regroup. 

Cersei meets her demise and we get Cleganebowl and Euron’s death.

As word of WF decimation spread, armies of the living unite. We get all those cameos we want. Howland Reed, Bravos, Golden Co, Darkstar, Daario, Nymeria, Ghost, Other Red Preists, Other Far East forces, etc. join survivors for epic final battle. Some real fan service is paid for the years of torment lol

[nyser1]

3 hours ago, Tywin Tytosson said:

Something like this might happen.  If the Living lose the battle, I don't see how they can get away from the AotD.  The dead don't stop, nor do they tire.  Nor do they freeze.

Agreed. If the dead win this battle I think they win the war.

[Bran Snow]

4 hours ago, Tywin Tytosson said:

Something like this might happen.  If the Living lose the battle, I don't see how they can get away from the AotD.  The dead don't stop, nor do they tire.  Nor do they freeze.

This is exactly what puzzles me. I don't see this being the final NK battle. If so then you have three more episodes (4 hours) of fighting Cersie? Put if they do lose this battle, how can they escape? Winterfell is in the middle of the North. They can't get on boats, too many to fit on dragons, and we saw in the fellowship of the wight that they can't out run them. I'm sure it'll be some Deus Ex Machina moment.

[Tywin Tytosson]

4 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

I'd like to develop my point here. Kings Landing is actually an ideal location to prepare for the final battle in the war against the Undead. By the time the surviving remnant retreat to KL even Cercei will have woken up to the scale of the peril and will work with the rest of the forces to battle the NK. KL is on the coast, it has a fleet - against an army that suffers hydrophobia, that's a key advantage. And I'll warrant Cercei's kept some wildfire in reserve.

So I think the Undead will win at Winterfell and be defeated at Kings Landing. That leaves the bittersweet finale as the final battle between the human survivors (Jon, Dany, Sansa, Cercei?) over the Iron Throne and 7 Kingdoms.

I disagree.  KL is about the worst place to have Ragnorak fought at.  We know that KL is hard if not impossible to defend against human opponents.  It has no chance against the dead.  The only advantage KL has is the presence of the Pyromasters Guild and their wildfire.  That might win the battle, but it will cost 1,000,000 lives.  No way Cersei attempts to save a single person in KL if the 'nuclear option' is decided upon.  Regarding the fleet, that is Eurons, not Cersei's.  Euron would likely pull up anchor and sail away to safety if he AotD got near to KL.

 

Best case that I can picture is Euron ferrying Cersei and the GC to Dragonstone as KL goes up on one huge wildfire conflagration.

 

Better places to try to defend are Casterly Rock, the Eyrie, Storms End, and/or maybe the Citadel.

[Tywin Tytosson]

9 minutes ago, Bran Snow said:

This is exactly what puzzles me. I don't see this being the final NK battle. If so then you have three more episodes (4 hours) of fighting Cersie? Put if they do lose this battle, how can they escape? Winterfell is in the middle of the North. They can't get on boats, too many to fit on dragons, and we saw in the fellowship of the wight that they can't out run them. I'm sure it'll be some Deus Ex Machina moment.

  Love it!

[darmody]

4 hours ago, Tywin Tytosson said:

Something like this might happen.  If the Living lose the battle, I don't see how they can get away from the AotD.  The dead don't stop, nor do they tire.  Nor do they freeze.

Horses. Dragons. Boats. Islands. 

[Bran Snow]

I always thought Moat Cailin would be a great place to fight from. Of course its a bit of a ruin now but its surrounded by chest deep water. That would make it hard for the wights to move. Hit them with dragon fire or if you could get wildfire from King's Landling, flood the area around the stronghold and just light a match.

[darmody]

On 4/26/2019 at 9:04 AM, lakin1013 said:

It would so help this argument (where do they go, what happens when they get there) if we know what the NK wants.  Whatever it is, if it escapes Winterfell during the loss, then the NK will follow team heroes.  Is what the NK wants a thing or a person? 

If a thing, what possible item would be in the crypts of Winterfell that is of immense significance to the NK.  So far, we know he wanted a dragon, and he got one.  That hints at the NK being a Targaryen, but only slightly.  Any commander would want a dragon.  However, if we let the NK be a Targaryen, then what is in WF that a Targaryen wants?  For a different Targaryen, Dany, it is love - Jon.  What is it for the NK - a lover, perhaps?  Could it be dragon eggs?  From the Wiki:

The Testimony of Mushroom alleges that when Prince Jacaerys Velaryon came to Winterfell at the start of the Dance of the Dragons, Vermax laid dragon eggs in the depths of the crypts, where hot springs are near the walls. Archmaester Gyldayn rejects the idea.^[11]

If it is a person, then I give up.  There are so many guesses on this forum that just about everyone has been named. If we do not answer this before the fall of WF, if the NK follows our heroes, then we can narrow the search down to one of them.

The Night King can't be Targaryen. He was a First Man. We saw him. 

[Tywin Tytosson]

2 minutes ago, darmody said:

Horses. Dragons. Boats. Islands. 

Not enough horses or dragons.  No boats at Winterfell.  And nowhere near enough boats (that we know of) on the coast to transport everybody to said islands.   Plus no way to transport enough food to feed everybody.  Definitely not enough to feed the horses and dragons.

The Great Exodus would have to be on foot for most, even if to the coast.   In the cold, in the snow.  w/o stopping.   w/o eating.  Very few, if any, would make it.  Their only chance would be if the dead do not pursue them.

[darmody]

2 minutes ago, Tywin Tytosson said:

Not enough horses or dragons.  No boats at Winterfell.  And nowhere near enough boats (that we know of) on the coast to transport everybody to said islands.   Plus no way to transport enough food to feed everybody.  Definitely not enough to feed the horses and dragons.

The Great Exodus would have to be on foot for most, even if to the coast.   In the cold, in the snow.  w/o stopping.   w/o eating.  Very few, if any, would make it.  Their only chance would be if the dead do not pursue them.

What everybody are you talking about? Assuming the Living lose this battle, that means the Dead will have overrun Winterfell. Which means a lot of our guys will be dead. The characters likely to live (Jon, Sansa, Arya, Sam, Danny, Tyrion, Jaime, the Hound, etc.) will slip out and regroup somehow. Somehow. 

Dragons fit plenty, as we saw with the Magnificent Seven's Stand at Zombie Lake last season. There gotta be horses tied up somewhere for easy escape. Secret tunnels and passageways. 

Then they make it to boats, then the Iron Islands. 

[Tywin Tytosson]

11 minutes ago, Bran Snow said:

I always thought Moat Cailin would be a great place to fight from. Of course its a bit of a ruin now but its surrounded by chest deep water. That would make it hard for the wights to move. Hit them with dragon fire or if you could get wildfire from King's Landling, flood the area around the stronghold and just light a match.

Hard until the presence of the Others freezes said water.  We have to assume that no wildfire is coming from KL.  Cersei would be happy if the whole North died then and there.  Moat Cailin is nigh-to-impregnable from the south.  Not so from the north.

But good call - Moat Cailin was quite a stronghold in its day, and was a site used by the CotF.  Mayhaps in better times, it would prove impossible for the dead to attack.

Other good places to fight from would be the Eyrie, Casterly Rock, and Storm's End.  But you have to get there, first.

[Bran Snow]

6 minutes ago, Tywin Tytosson said:

Hard until the presence of the Others freezes said water.  We have to assume that no wildfire is coming from KL.  Cersei would be happy if the whole North died then and there.  Moat Cailin is nigh-to-impregnable from the south.  Not so from the north.

But good call - Moat Cailin was quite a stronghold in its day, and was a site used by the CotF.  Mayhaps in better times, it would prove impossible for the dead to attack.

Other good places to fight from would be the Eyrie, Casterly Rock, and Storm's End.  But you have to get there, first.

I'm surprised no one has mentioned to Cersei that if the whole North dies, then they join the army of the dead to fight her. I guess the girl just wants to watch the whole world burn.

[Tywin Tytosson]

9 minutes ago, darmody said:

What everybody are you talking about? Assuming the Living lose this battle, that means the Dead will have overrun Winterfell. Which means a lot of our guys will be dead. The characters likely to live (Jon, Sansa, Arya, Sam, Danny, Tyrion, Jaime, the Hound, etc.) will slip out and regroup somehow. Somehow. 

Dragons fit plenty, as we saw with the Magnificent Seven's Stand at Zombie Lake last season. There gotta be horses tied up somewhere for easy escape. Secret tunnels and passageways. 

Then they make it to boats, then the Iron Islands. 

I am thinking of the people in the crypts - the people of the North.   And the Unsullied.  And the Northern troops.  None of these groups can disengage from the dead and run away from them.  The Dothraki might be able to do so, but they will still have to contend with the snow, the cold, lack of food, and likely lack of extra mounts.  And then not enough ships for the horses.

[darmody]

2 minutes ago, Tywin Tytosson said:

I am thinking of the people in the crypts - the people of the North.   And the Unsullied.  And the Northern troops.  None of these groups can disengage from the dead and run away from them.  The Dothraki might be able to do so, but they will still have to contend with the snow, the cold, lack of food, and likely lack of extra mounts.  And then not enough ships for the horses.

Okay, yes. Mass slaughter. They're not all getting out. I think that even if the Targaryen-Stark-Arryn forces prevail, most everyone will be dead. 

[Tywin Tytosson]

2 minutes ago, Bran Snow said:

I'm surprised no one has mentioned to Cersei that if the whole North dies, then they join the army of the dead to fight her. I guess the girl just wants to watch the whole world burn.

And be 'Queen of the Ashes'.  Yeppers.  Like Littlefinger, in her own way.

Maybe she hasn't given that much thought - if the North falls, their 500,000 people become part of the AotD.

As Tywin said, "[she] is not as clever as [she] thinks [she] is".

[Tywin Tytosson]

8 minutes ago, darmody said:

Okay, yes. Mass slaughter. They're not all getting out. I think that even if the Targaryen-Stark-Arryn forces prevail, most everyone will be dead. 

I believe that they may get a Pyrrhic Victory of sorts.  The dead are defeated, but Winterfell is so damaged that they have to evacuate it. 

Or the NK voluntarily calls off the assault for some reason (eg: 3ER killed).  Winterfell, and its food stores, could still be severely damaged.

A possibility is that the GC comes north after the battle, and the surviving Stark-Targ-Arryn military forces have to 'strategically redeploy' elsehwere.

[D2procon]

The dead win winterfell. They chase the rest of the living down south. The Northerners will be stuck between Kings landing and the dead. They will beg to let them through but cersei watches as they slaughter them. Jaime sneaks in and kills cersei and opens kings landing for the survivors.