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UK Politics: Awaiting MV3

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18 hours ago, Heartofice said:

What is mostly worrying about it however is that we are living at a time where people you don’t like in politics are depicted as the actual devil and emotions run too hot.

I agree. The increasingly mainstream rhetoric of hate and intolerance against those who think, vote, pray or look different to us is a big problem. According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, promoting inclusion, diversity and pluralism is the answer. Seems legit.

6 hours ago, williamjm said:

By this stage I'm not sure anything May does or does not do has any real effect on anything.

Again, I agree. Her 'new' deal is extremely unlikely to pass. Odds of MV4 failing by a wider margin than MV3 are actually pretty good. Once that happens, Theresa May will probably finally die her political death (her carcass is already being fought over...) and resign or attempt to hold general elections (or just shake her fist and vow her deal will get us next time, it's hard to know with May). If her resignation simply leads to a Tory leadership bid (which Boris Johnson seems likely to win), I think a No Deal Brexit is almost certain. A general election opens up more possibilities, but the Conservatives will probably do anything in their power to avoid a general election prior to Brexit actually happening (except voting for May's deal, I guess).

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13 hours ago, williamjm said:

By this stage I'm not sure anything May does or does not do has any real effect on anything.

But when was the last time it had. It felt like she lost control over her own party after her snap election. So I am not sure that this stage presents a new situation.

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She's toast today. 

Its just a question of who is going to play Jon Snow to Teresa's Daenerys......and be sent beyond the wall of Westminster forever.

On another interesting note the latest YouGov European poll is predictably dire for TCP but Labour's support has totally collapsed to a miserable 13%. 

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41 minutes ago, Blue Roses said:

She's toast today. 

Its just a question of who is going to play Jon Snow to Teresa's Daenerys......and be sent beyond the wall of Westminster forever.

On another interesting note the latest YouGov European poll is predictably dire for TCP but Labour's support has totally collapsed to a miserable 13%. 

Maybe not spoil GOT finale?

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So when will May resign?

I've just quickly browsed a bit thru the net, and found 3 suggestions.

Tonight, to throw a bone to their loony base and hope to soften the blow they are about to receive in the EU elections.

Friday after the UK has voted or Monday after the results are announced.

But then again, this assumes she actually will resign not be dragged out of number 10 feet first.

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She'll be gone tonight. The 1922 lizards are meeting this evening to change their rules to allow an immediate vote of no confidence. 

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

On Brexit: has May effectively trashed the possibility of a referendum by attaching a referendum proposal to her deal, thus forever putting a stink on the idea of future referendums? Or, by actually formally proposing a referendum for the first time, has she actually started normalising the idea so that a referendum of some sort is now more likely?

Picking upon this, what May actually said was that if only parliament will pass her deal unchanged, then she will at some time in the future allow another parliamentary vote as to whether it should be confirmed by a referendum. Except that:

  • She has little power to enable and no power to prevent parliament holding such a "referendum to confirm the deal" vote.
  • By her own departure timetable she will in any case no longer be PM when the time comes to decide whether to have such a vote.

 

Edited by A wilding
Fixed typo

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Just now, A wilding said:

Picking upon this, what May actually said was that if only parliament will pass her deal unchanged, then she will at some time in the future allow another parliamentary vote as to whether it should be confirmed by a referendum. Except that:

  • She has little power to enable and no power to prevent parliament holding such a "referendum to confirm the deal" vote.
  • By her own departure timetable she will in any case no longer be PM when the time comes to decide whether to have such a vote.

 

Which is in line what she offered Labour as big concessions.

A whole lot of nothing, which was already too much for her own backbench. It's really quite funny, when you look at that spectacle from the outside.

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Skimming the headlines on a few European papers leaves me with the impression that May has lost literally all of her support. I’d say her goose is cooked, but she is a survivor, so you never know.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48366977

 

But Laura Kuenssberg says the PM has declined to meet the ministers - who are both seen as possible contenders to be the next Conservative leader - and she has left Downing Street to see the Queen for her weekly meeting.”

 

Sounds almost like her version of going to the Winchester for a pint and waiting for all this blow over.

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Some of the press reporting that - bizarrely - May might be holding on to power until at least next week so she can beat Gordon Brown's time in office and thus avoid being the shortest-serving Prime Minister this century (so far).

By avoiding a big confrontation tonight, the Tory backbenchers will either have to change the rules and hold a vote tomorrow - but a lot of MPs won't be in town for it - or hold off potentially until 4 June after recess.

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1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

I love that the article specifies the variety of milkshake he was doused with.

I will only believe that May will resign when she actually does. I expect her to cling on to Downing Street until the bitter end

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

 

:lmao:Sorry, but this is genuinely funny.

I'm sure we've all hidden and pretended we're not in when politicians come to the door.

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Posted (edited)

So where do you go from here? Brexit dies with a whimper in a haze of inaction; Brexit dies with a brave determined act by some courageous people who cancel the process since the whole venture was brought about through acts of bad faith and criminality; Brexit happens by default in a manner that the vast majority of people and MPs don't want?

Is there much hope of a Brexit with a broadly agreed and accepted deal? It seems like the EU and UK are so far apart on what constitutes an acceptable negotiated deal that a pre-Brexit deal won't ever happen, and that what may happen is a chaotic exit, and then several years of negotiations to establish the UK's relationship with the EU on a new footing, once everyone has seen exactly how bad, or good (unlikely) things are with no comprehensive relationship agreement in place.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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1 minute ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So where do you go from here? Brexit dies with a whimper in a haze of inaction; Brexit dies with a brave determined act by some courageous people who cancel the process since the whole venture was brought about through acts of bad faith and criminality; Brexit happens by default in a manner that the vast majority of people and MPs don't want?

Is there much hope of a Brexit with a broadly agreed and accepted deal? It seems like the EU and UK are so far apart on what constitutes an acceptable negotiated deal that a pre-Brexit deal won't ever happen, and that what may happen is a chaotic exit, and then several years of negotiations to establish the UK's relationship with the EU on a new footing, once everyone has seen exactly how bad, or good (unlikely) things are with no comprehensive relationship agreement in place.

Oddly, May, Corbyn, and the EU are not far apart.

But, their parties feel very differently. Most of Labour want to revoke Brexit, most Conservatives want No Deal Brexit, and everyone is treating tomorrow's vote as a glorified opinion poll.

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