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Which Tyler

UK Politics: Awaiting MV3

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My polling station was pretty busy. Guess this was the first euro elections a lot of people actually cared about 

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I’m in the East Midlands and I was planning on voting Lib Dem, but having looked at the polls and the link posted above I’m wondering if I’d be better off voting Green in the hope that they’ll get the 5th seat. However I think the chances of Green getting enough votes are still quite remote and I might just be better off reinforcing the Lib Dem vote. I just don’t know.

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I'm Eastern,   https://www.remainvoter.com/ suggested I should vote Green to secure he 2nd remain spot.  the link posted above says I should vote Libdem.   

 

I've been sure for a long time I would be voting one of those 2, but I just don't know which one would be best.

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I'm currently torn on whether to vote green or lib dem. Green already have a seat in my region, but lib Dems have recently polled better. I'm worried that the explicitly pro-eu vote here is going to be split.

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Info in the spoilers from Remain Voter E-mail I have just been sent from them

Its the tactical voting recommendations for Remain votes.  They re-ran their calculations with the latest polls at 2am so it should be as accurate as its reasonably possible when it comes to predicting results from polls.

 

  

1 - Get out and vote today. Make sure your voice is heard in Westminster, across the UK and Europe. We confirm all of our recommendations. Dr Nick ran the freshest polling data through the Remain Voter engine at 2 am this morning and our Smart Voting recommendation is the same. If you are undecided, Conservative, Labour,  or a floating voter vote with the Remain Voter strategy.#EuElection2019

2 - Be confident. Less than 500,000 smart Remain votes across the UK could change the face of this election. 6 million of us signed the #RevokeA50 petition. You've got this. Use the hashtag #RemainVoter.

3 - Sharing is caring. Share this recommendation for your area on your Facebook and Twitter feed. Include @RemainVoter and we will RT.

It's that simple. This is how we win.
 
East Midlands - Vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrats look secure in winning a single seat (currently 4th). The next best placed pro-European to win is the Greens. Smart Voting can help the Greens displace a pro-Brexit party, and lock them out of the East Midlands region.

It is a big ask for the Greens here, but with high turnout and CUK votes and a bit from Labour remainers, they can push out the Conservatives for 5th place.

Remain Voter only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Eastern England - Vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

If you like the idea of Smart Voting, RemainVoter.com recommends voting Green to secure a further Remain seat in Eastern England, blocking Farage.

Current polling has the Greens within 1,000 votes of the Brexit Party for the last seat. The Liberal Democrats have almost certainly secured a seat, and a second one is possible. CUK is a long way off the pace. Let's make sure we keep the Brexit Party out by voting Green.

Remain Voter only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
London - Vote Change UK
 
Smart Voters Vote Change UK

Lib Dem and Green seats look secure, so if you are Smart Voting, RemainVoter.com recommends vote Change UK to gain a 4th Remain seat in London.

This is one of the toughest seats to call. LDs should get 2 and Green 1. LDs have little chance of getting a 3rd, so CUK come into the equation. If Con continue to slide and with a bit of help from Labour voters, Gavin Esler could be an MEP on Monday.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
 
North East Vote Liberal Democrat
 
Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem

With only 3 seats, the only way a Remainer can get elected is if we all co-operate. To bring a single seat within reach of a Remain party, RemainVoter.com recommends voting Liberal Democrat, and bringing a friend to the polling station. This will increase the key indicator of national vote share for Remain parties: We must fight to win. Don't give up.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
North West vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

LDs look likely to win a seat. And just a tiny movement from Lab and CUK voters to Green will give Remainers an extra seat. LDs getting a second seat is too big an ask, and CUK are nowhere. Greens will probably push out Tories which would be a big win for Remain and Magic Magid.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Northern Ireland vote your preference: Alliance; SDLP; Green; Sinn Fein*
 
In order to vote for these Remain parties in Northern Ireland, it is important NOT to add a number against any other party. 

Under Single Transferable Vote, if you don't put a number next to a party, your vote can never be counted for them.
Scotland vote Liberal Democrats to win 2 Remain seats
 
Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem for 2 seats!

Scotland is interesting! Recent polling shows SNP confidently gaining 3 seats with undecided Labour voters blocking a 4th. RemainVoter.com modelling shows LDs have the momentum to win a seat while helping the SNP win the 4th seat. So smart voting can win a seat from a pro-Brexit party while capitalising on Labour's lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
South East vote Change UK

Smart Voters Vote Change UK

The Liberal Democrats look secure on 2 seats and the Greens on 1 seat. Neither will get another, so if you’re Smart Voting, vote Change UK to get a 4th Remainer seat in the Southeast. 

CUK may look a long way away, but it is a big region and they only need another 2% of the vote, which is much less than the LDs who would need about another 6% to get a 3rd seat.  The Greens are reasonably secure, but would find it nearly impossible to get a second seat.

 
We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
South West vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrat seat is secure, so if you’re Smart Voting, vote Green to get a second Remain seat in the South West. Smart Voting will return a sitting MEP who is highly visible promoting the EU and combating corruption.

It would be amazing for the LDs to get a second seat, and it could happen, but under the d'hondt system, they need twice as many votes as the Greens to get over the line. So, if you're smart voting vote Green for the second win.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Wales vote Liberal Democrats 

Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem


Plaid Cymru is set to win one seat in Wales. With smart voting, the Liberal Democrats can also win a seat without encroaching on Plaid Cyrmu. That gain will mean half the MEPs in Wales are outright Remain supporters.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
West Midlands vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

It looks like the Liberal Democrats will win one seat. With flexible Remainers voting Green, Smart Voting will add a second Remain supporting MEP in the West Midlands, with Labour losing out because of its lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership.

LDs are secure by about 40K votes and Green need a similar amount to push out Lab. CUK  are nowhere

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Yorkshire and the Humber vote Green

Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrats are set to win a seat. If you’re Smart Voting, vote Green and they too will win a seat. Winning a Green seat in Yorkshire and the Humber will send a strong message that there is demand for Remain throughout the country.

The Greens have a bit of work to do, but it’s much easier for them to win a seat than for LDs to win 2. CUK are nowhere.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Pebble said:

Info in the spoilers from Remain Voter E-mail I have just been sent from them

Its the tactical voting recommendations for Remain votes.  They re-ran their calculations with the latest polls at 2am so it should be as accurate as its reasonably possible when it comes to predicting results from polls.

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

  

1 - Get out and vote today. Make sure your voice is heard in Westminster, across the UK and Europe. We confirm all of our recommendations. Dr Nick ran the freshest polling data through the Remain Voter engine at 2 am this morning and our Smart Voting recommendation is the same. If you are undecided, Conservative, Labour,  or a floating voter vote with the Remain Voter strategy.#EuElection2019

2 - Be confident. Less than 500,000 smart Remain votes across the UK could change the face of this election. 6 million of us signed the #RevokeA50 petition. You've got this. Use the hashtag #RemainVoter.

3 - Sharing is caring. Share this recommendation for your area on your Facebook and Twitter feed. Include @RemainVoter and we will RT.

It's that simple. This is how we win.
 
East Midlands - Vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrats look secure in winning a single seat (currently 4th). The next best placed pro-European to win is the Greens. Smart Voting can help the Greens displace a pro-Brexit party, and lock them out of the East Midlands region.

It is a big ask for the Greens here, but with high turnout and CUK votes and a bit from Labour remainers, they can push out the Conservatives for 5th place.

Remain Voter only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Eastern England - Vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

If you like the idea of Smart Voting, RemainVoter.com recommends voting Green to secure a further Remain seat in Eastern England, blocking Farage.

Current polling has the Greens within 1,000 votes of the Brexit Party for the last seat. The Liberal Democrats have almost certainly secured a seat, and a second one is possible. CUK is a long way off the pace. Let's make sure we keep the Brexit Party out by voting Green.

Remain Voter only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
London - Vote Change UK
 
Smart Voters Vote Change UK

Lib Dem and Green seats look secure, so if you are Smart Voting, RemainVoter.com recommends vote Change UK to gain a 4th Remain seat in London.

This is one of the toughest seats to call. LDs should get 2 and Green 1. LDs have little chance of getting a 3rd, so CUK come into the equation. If Con continue to slide and with a bit of help from Labour voters, Gavin Esler could be an MEP on Monday.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
 
North East Vote Liberal Democrat
 
Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem

With only 3 seats, the only way a Remainer can get elected is if we all co-operate. To bring a single seat within reach of a Remain party, RemainVoter.com recommends voting Liberal Democrat, and bringing a friend to the polling station. This will increase the key indicator of national vote share for Remain parties: We must fight to win. Don't give up.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
North West vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

LDs look likely to win a seat. And just a tiny movement from Lab and CUK voters to Green will give Remainers an extra seat. LDs getting a second seat is too big an ask, and CUK are nowhere. Greens will probably push out Tories which would be a big win for Remain and Magic Magid.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Northern Ireland vote your preference: Alliance; SDLP; Green; Sinn Fein*
 
In order to vote for these Remain parties in Northern Ireland, it is important NOT to add a number against any other party. 

Under Single Transferable Vote, if you don't put a number next to a party, your vote can never be counted for them.
Scotland vote Liberal Democrats to win 2 Remain seats
 
Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem for 2 seats!

Scotland is interesting! Recent polling shows SNP confidently gaining 3 seats with undecided Labour voters blocking a 4th. RemainVoter.com modelling shows LDs have the momentum to win a seat while helping the SNP win the 4th seat. So smart voting can win a seat from a pro-Brexit party while capitalising on Labour's lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
South East vote Change UK

Smart Voters Vote Change UK

The Liberal Democrats look secure on 2 seats and the Greens on 1 seat. Neither will get another, so if you’re Smart Voting, vote Change UK to get a 4th Remainer seat in the Southeast. 

CUK may look a long way away, but it is a big region and they only need another 2% of the vote, which is much less than the LDs who would need about another 6% to get a 3rd seat.  The Greens are reasonably secure, but would find it nearly impossible to get a second seat.

 
We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
South West vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrat seat is secure, so if you’re Smart Voting, vote Green to get a second Remain seat in the South West. Smart Voting will return a sitting MEP who is highly visible promoting the EU and combating corruption.

It would be amazing for the LDs to get a second seat, and it could happen, but under the d'hondt system, they need twice as many votes as the Greens to get over the line. So, if you're smart voting vote Green for the second win.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Wales vote Liberal Democrats 

Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem


Plaid Cymru is set to win one seat in Wales. With smart voting, the Liberal Democrats can also win a seat without encroaching on Plaid Cyrmu. That gain will mean half the MEPs in Wales are outright Remain supporters.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
West Midlands vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

It looks like the Liberal Democrats will win one seat. With flexible Remainers voting Green, Smart Voting will add a second Remain supporting MEP in the West Midlands, with Labour losing out because of its lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership.

LDs are secure by about 40K votes and Green need a similar amount to push out Lab. CUK  are nowhere

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Yorkshire and the Humber vote Green

Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrats are set to win a seat. If you’re Smart Voting, vote Green and they too will win a seat. Winning a Green seat in Yorkshire and the Humber will send a strong message that there is demand for Remain throughout the country.

The Greens have a bit of work to do, but it’s much easier for them to win a seat than for LDs to win 2. CUK are nowhere.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

 

 

My interpretation of the D'hondt method must be wonky then

By my understanding, for the SW, for the Lib Dem to get a 2nd seat; they need more than 1/2 the Farage vote.
I've not seen the latest poll they used (and google isn't being helpful this morning), but the most recent one I saw was BP 42%, LD 20%, Green 12% - so 4 (10.5%) : 1 (20%) : 1 (12%); if LD could swing that 20 up to 22%, it'd be BP 3 (14%) : 2 (11%) : 1 (12%).

Of course, if latest polling has BP heading up towards 48%, then the Lib Dems would be out of that fight, whilst Greens would be dragged in.

Edited by Which Tyler

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9 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

My interpretation of the D'hondt method must be wonky then

By my understanding, for the SW, for the Lib Dem to get a 2nd seat; they need more than 1/2 the Farage vote.
I've not seen the latest poll they used (and google isn't being helpful this morning), but the most recent one I saw was BP 42%, LD 20%, Green 12% - so 4 (10.5%) : 1 (20%) : 1 (12%); if LD could swing that 20 up to 22%, it'd be BP 3 (14%) : 2 (11%) : 1 (12%)

from my understanding using your poll data   Brexit gets the 1st seat  leaving them now with 21%.  Brexit get the 2nd seat (just)  leaving them now with 10.5%  LD take the 3rd seat  leaving them with 10%  Green take the 4th seat.   5th is Brexit or LD (with just 0.5% difference)

I'm not sure how many seats are up for grabs in your area.   I would say with that the safer vote is boost the green to ensure a 2nd remain vote.  the risky but possible is boost the Libdem vote.  I think your likely to get 2 remains seats but could be either LibDem or Green for the 2nd.

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4 minutes ago, Pebble said:

from my understanding using your poll data   Brexit gets the 1st seat  leaving them now with 21%.  Brexit get the 2nd seat (just)  leaving them now with 10.5%  LD take the 3rd seat  leaving them with 10%  Green take the 4th seat.   5th is Brexit or LD (with just 0.5% difference)

I'm not sure how many seats are up for grabs in your area.   I would say with that the safer vote is boost the green to ensure a 2nd remain vote.  the risky but possible is boost the Libdem vote.  I think your likely to get 2 remains seats but could be either LibDem or Green for the 2nd.

We get 6; and I agree with your interpretation of D'Hondt.

Personally, I'm encouraging people to vote either Green or Lib Dem - I think Lib Dem are in more of a fight, but the Green seat isn't 100% secure yet - most of the recommendations I've seen agree with that bit.

 

Good weather here should help -  higher turnout has got to favour pro-EU I'd have thought.

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7 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I voted Conservative in the end.

Have you been in a cave for 3 years? 

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7 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Have you been in a cave for 3 years? 

Would you rather I had voted for The Brexit Party?

Admittedly, it's a bit like a pity f*ck.

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42 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Would you rather I had voted for The Brexit Party?

Admittedly, it's a bit like a pity f*ck.

tactically I think you might have been slightly better off voting labour as a Brexit but not No deal vote (like Tory)   but that would also be a bit like a pity f*ck.  I expect both Labour and Tory to do really badly, but I have a feeling labour might do slightly better.   I'm assuming you would rather we leave with a deal than with No Deal.

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19 minutes ago, Pebble said:

tactically I think you might have been slightly better off voting labour as a Brexit but not No deal vote (like Tory)   but that would also be a bit like a pity f*ck.  I expect both Labour and Tory to do really badly, but I have a feeling labour might do slightly better.   I'm assuming you would rather we leave with a deal than with No Deal.

I'd rather leave with a deal.

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49 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I had already voted by post for the lib dems. (NE)

 

didn’t notice anyone post it last night but i’m sure you all saw, Andrea Leadsom resigned from Cabinet https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48374098

Which in a surprise move, has led to the can being kicked further down the road: Brexit: Theresa May's withdrawal bill delayed

 

 

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Forgive me, a political science degree in the U.S. doesn’t exactly inform you that much about other countries unless you focus on them. Is this election to determine who represents the U.K. in the EU elections?

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4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Forgive me, a political science degree in the U.S. doesn’t exactly inform you that much about other countries unless you focus on them. Is this election to determine who represents the U.K. in the EU elections?

It's the elections for the EU parliament. So basically which Brits are going to sit there. The election span over several days. The UK is voting today. Germany will be voting on Sunday. Results are announced on monday.

If you are interested what the EU parliament actually does.

Are your question(s) answered to a satisfactory level?

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/23/eu-citizens-denied-vote-european-election-polling-booths-admin-errors?CMP=share_btn_fb
A nationwide picture is emerging of EU citizens in the UK being denied their democratic right to vote in the European parliament elections because of administrative errors by local councils
Reports are coming in from across the country of EU nationals turning up at polling booths and finding their names crossed out and being told by officials they are not eligible to vote
Dozens have contacted the Guardian to say that the forms they had to sign to declare they were choosing to vote in this country had either turned up too late or not turned up at all...

 

So much for legal, free and fair elections huh

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