Jump to content
Which Tyler

UK Politics: Awaiting MV3

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

It's the elections for the EU parliament. So basically which Brits are going to sit there. The election span over several days. The UK is voting today. Germany will be voting on Sunday. Results are announced on monday.

If you are interested what the EU parliament actually does.

Are your question(s) answered to a satisfactory level?

Yep. I figured that’s roughly what it was, but I also recently read that May might call for new elections in the U.K., so I was a bit confused. Truth be told they don’t teach that much here about different systems of government other than to compare and contrast them typically followed by the usual propaganda about how our system is better. So in other words,  Team America, F*** Yeah!

I'll check the link out later after work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well I just voted.

 

The Polling people staff seemed to think turnout was good, better than in the local council ones 3 weeks ago.

Since my ward had the biggest voter turnout in our council  and I think was the biggest turnout in a local election we've had in a long while (when no other election happening at the same time) and my region is very strongly Brexit I figured I'd play it safe and vote Green for the should be 2nd possible remain vote, instead of risking it and voting Lib Dem hoping for a 3rd remain vote.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/23/eu-citizens-denied-vote-european-election-polling-booths-admin-errors?CMP=share_btn_fb
A nationwide picture is emerging of EU citizens in the UK being denied their democratic right to vote in the European parliament elections because of administrative errors by local councils
Reports are coming in from across the country of EU nationals turning up at polling booths and finding their names crossed out and being told by officials they are not eligible to vote
Dozens have contacted the Guardian to say that the forms they had to sign to declare they were choosing to vote in this country had either turned up too late or not turned up at all...

 

So much for legal, free and fair elections huh

My friend’s girlfriend is a Polish resident in the UK, and she was turned away today for this exact reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Stannis Eats No Peaches said:

My friend’s girlfriend is a Polish resident in the UK, and she was turned away today for this exact reason.

returning officers can correct the register until 9pm tonight, allowing them to vote today before 10pm.  Its hassle she should not have to go though but might just work.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the Eastern Region, I voted Green as apparently getting 1 LibDem + 1 Green is far more likely than 2 LibDems.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

So earth has opened up, hell froze over, and devil is giving free sleigh rides to kids, and Theresa May has announced to step down as party leader, after the Trump state visit to preserve her dignity. Just when I thought you Brits had no humour.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Pebble said:

Info in the spoilers from Remain Voter E-mail I have just been sent from them

Its the tactical voting recommendations for Remain votes.  They re-ran their calculations with the latest polls at 2am so it should be as accurate as its reasonably possible when it comes to predicting results from polls.

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

  

1 - Get out and vote today. Make sure your voice is heard in Westminster, across the UK and Europe. We confirm all of our recommendations. Dr Nick ran the freshest polling data through the Remain Voter engine at 2 am this morning and our Smart Voting recommendation is the same. If you are undecided, Conservative, Labour,  or a floating voter vote with the Remain Voter strategy.#EuElection2019

2 - Be confident. Less than 500,000 smart Remain votes across the UK could change the face of this election. 6 million of us signed the #RevokeA50 petition. You've got this. Use the hashtag #RemainVoter.

3 - Sharing is caring. Share this recommendation for your area on your Facebook and Twitter feed. Include @RemainVoter and we will RT.

It's that simple. This is how we win.
 
East Midlands - Vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrats look secure in winning a single seat (currently 4th). The next best placed pro-European to win is the Greens. Smart Voting can help the Greens displace a pro-Brexit party, and lock them out of the East Midlands region.

It is a big ask for the Greens here, but with high turnout and CUK votes and a bit from Labour remainers, they can push out the Conservatives for 5th place.

Remain Voter only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Eastern England - Vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

If you like the idea of Smart Voting, RemainVoter.com recommends voting Green to secure a further Remain seat in Eastern England, blocking Farage.

Current polling has the Greens within 1,000 votes of the Brexit Party for the last seat. The Liberal Democrats have almost certainly secured a seat, and a second one is possible. CUK is a long way off the pace. Let's make sure we keep the Brexit Party out by voting Green.

Remain Voter only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
London - Vote Change UK
 
Smart Voters Vote Change UK

Lib Dem and Green seats look secure, so if you are Smart Voting, RemainVoter.com recommends vote Change UK to gain a 4th Remain seat in London.

This is one of the toughest seats to call. LDs should get 2 and Green 1. LDs have little chance of getting a 3rd, so CUK come into the equation. If Con continue to slide and with a bit of help from Labour voters, Gavin Esler could be an MEP on Monday.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
 
North East Vote Liberal Democrat
 
Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem

With only 3 seats, the only way a Remainer can get elected is if we all co-operate. To bring a single seat within reach of a Remain party, RemainVoter.com recommends voting Liberal Democrat, and bringing a friend to the polling station. This will increase the key indicator of national vote share for Remain parties: We must fight to win. Don't give up.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
North West vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

LDs look likely to win a seat. And just a tiny movement from Lab and CUK voters to Green will give Remainers an extra seat. LDs getting a second seat is too big an ask, and CUK are nowhere. Greens will probably push out Tories which would be a big win for Remain and Magic Magid.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Northern Ireland vote your preference: Alliance; SDLP; Green; Sinn Fein*
 
In order to vote for these Remain parties in Northern Ireland, it is important NOT to add a number against any other party. 

Under Single Transferable Vote, if you don't put a number next to a party, your vote can never be counted for them.
Scotland vote Liberal Democrats to win 2 Remain seats
 
Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem for 2 seats!

Scotland is interesting! Recent polling shows SNP confidently gaining 3 seats with undecided Labour voters blocking a 4th. RemainVoter.com modelling shows LDs have the momentum to win a seat while helping the SNP win the 4th seat. So smart voting can win a seat from a pro-Brexit party while capitalising on Labour's lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
South East vote Change UK

Smart Voters Vote Change UK

The Liberal Democrats look secure on 2 seats and the Greens on 1 seat. Neither will get another, so if you’re Smart Voting, vote Change UK to get a 4th Remainer seat in the Southeast. 

CUK may look a long way away, but it is a big region and they only need another 2% of the vote, which is much less than the LDs who would need about another 6% to get a 3rd seat.  The Greens are reasonably secure, but would find it nearly impossible to get a second seat.

 
We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
South West vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrat seat is secure, so if you’re Smart Voting, vote Green to get a second Remain seat in the South West. Smart Voting will return a sitting MEP who is highly visible promoting the EU and combating corruption.

It would be amazing for the LDs to get a second seat, and it could happen, but under the d'hondt system, they need twice as many votes as the Greens to get over the line. So, if you're smart voting vote Green for the second win.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Wales vote Liberal Democrats 

Smart Voters Vote Lib Dem


Plaid Cymru is set to win one seat in Wales. With smart voting, the Liberal Democrats can also win a seat without encroaching on Plaid Cyrmu. That gain will mean half the MEPs in Wales are outright Remain supporters.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
West Midlands vote Green
 
Smart Voters Vote Green

It looks like the Liberal Democrats will win one seat. With flexible Remainers voting Green, Smart Voting will add a second Remain supporting MEP in the West Midlands, with Labour losing out because of its lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership.

LDs are secure by about 40K votes and Green need a similar amount to push out Lab. CUK  are nowhere

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.
Yorkshire and the Humber vote Green

Smart Voters Vote Green

The Liberal Democrats are set to win a seat. If you’re Smart Voting, vote Green and they too will win a seat. Winning a Green seat in Yorkshire and the Humber will send a strong message that there is demand for Remain throughout the country.

The Greens have a bit of work to do, but it’s much easier for them to win a seat than for LDs to win 2. CUK are nowhere.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

 

 

If you choose your area on this website, you get quite a nice interactive tool down the bottom to see how many seats go to who if you change the percentage votes by reducing one and increasing another.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/vote

I didn't actually find it that useful for working out who to vote for, but it was a good visualisation of the tipping points for different outcomes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Werthead said:

For the Eastern Region, I voted Green as apparently getting 1 LibDem + 1 Green is far more likely than 2 LibDems.

I did the same in the South West for the same reasons

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yep. I figured that’s roughly what it was, but I also recently read that May might call for new elections in the U.K., so I was a bit confused.

May won't be around long enough to call a new election (and I don't think she'd get it through Parliament anyway).

After the inevitable Tory leadership contest I'm wondering whether the new leader might be tempted to call a snap election? It would seem a risk, even if the Tory polling numbers bounce back once May is gone, but with the current Parliament it's difficult to see how they be able to get a majority on any Brexit-related issues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, williamjm said:

After the inevitable Tory leadership contest I'm wondering whether the new leader might be tempted to call a snap election? It would seem a risk, even if the Tory polling numbers bounce back once May is gone, but with the current Parliament it's difficult to see how they be able to get a majority on any Brexit-related issues.

Not sure how a new parliament will make a difference in that respect.

It'll be the same situation again with the same unappealing choices.

1.) The WA as negotiated by the UK goverment under PM May and a more or less orderly depature.

2.) No deal Which no sane PM would ever voluntarily do (the EU is fully aware of that). Unless another referendum with no-deal kinda forces the next PM's hand.

3.) No Brexit. (either by simply revoking (j/k) or getting another referendum in).

Ofc there's always the bonus round of crawling back to the EU and begging for another extension involved.

Whether you elect another hung parliament for the lulz doesn't really change all that much.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just got back from my poling station, having voted Green. Still pretty busy even at this hour, people queueing and others continuing to arrive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Not sure how a new parliament will make a difference in that respect.

It'll be the same situation again with the same unappealing choices.

1.) The WA as negotiated by the UK goverment under PM May and a more or less orderly depature.

2.) No deal Which no sane PM would ever voluntarily do (the EU is fully aware of that). Unless another referendum with no-deal kinda forces the next PM's hand.

3.) No Brexit. (either by simply revoking (j/k) or getting another referendum in).

Ofc there's always the bonus round of crawling back to the EU and begging for another extension involved.

Whether you elect another hung parliament for the lulz doesn't really change all that much.

I agree a new election is unlikely to make things better, but I'm not sure whether Boris (or whoever the new Tory leader is) will see it the same way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, williamjm said:

After the inevitable Tory leadership contest I'm wondering whether the new leader might be tempted to call a snap election? It would seem a risk, even if the Tory polling numbers bounce back once May is gone, but with the current Parliament it's difficult to see how they be able to get a majority on any Brexit-related issues.

Possibly. It'd be a gamble but it would mean that Boris (or whoever wins; it's not a given it'll be Boris) doesn't actually get to get his hands dirty by negotiating Brexit. He might calculate that losing the election and watching Corbyn mess up Brexit might serve him better in the long-term than taking power now. He did flee the 2016 contest partially on this calculation, after all (Boris's primary motivation is not taking or face responsibility for anything that could possibly be described as his fault). The problem might be if Boris loses the election so heavily that he is forced to resign, which blows up that possibility in his face.

However, the party itself would face a major threat from the Brexit Party, who'd likely peel off so many Tory votes that the Tories cannot form a working government and would face a coalition with the DUP and Brexit Party which would be, of course, on the basis of a No Deal Brexit. The Brexit Part might face a huge problem there in not having any policies on the NHS and other areas, which is something they can ignore at the EU elections but they can't on a national level. The DUP might also face blowback by campaigning in favour of a No Deal Brexit (or Brexit at all) when the majority of the population of Northern Ireland voted to Remain.

There's also the possibility that the Tories crash out of government, Labour takes power (either individually or in a coalition with the resurgent LibDems and maybe the SNP - which is difficult but not totally impossible) and then actually does an okay Brexit with a customs union deal which mitigates the worst impact on Britain and, whilst there's a handful of people left screaming afterwards it's not a real Brexit, a huge proportion of the country says fuck it, good enough, let's move on, and Labour then hold onto power for a full five years (and who knows what happens at that point) and the Tories managed to destroy themselves again in Opposition by arguing about their Brexit policy for the subsequent election.

Edited by Werthead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The problem might be if Boris loses the election so heavily that he is forced to resign, which blows up that possibility in his face.

Depends (like so often) if he can get his narrative out, and enough stupid people to buy into it. Or in simpler words, can he convince the Tory party this defeat is infact May's legacy, who knows. FWIW I think this might work. Anything else would require some honest analysis and soul searching and what Brexit choices were realistically ever on offer. And I don't think the Tories are capable of that. They will just drift off into some fantasy land, about the Brexit that was promised, and had there just been a true Brexiteer in charge. Like I said, there's a fair chance enough morons will buy into that.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Voted Lib Dem in the end. A couple of different tactical voting websites gave different advice as to whether I should go for them or CUK in the South East, which wasn’t especially helpful.

The polling station wasn’t particularly busy, but there was a rather anxious looking couple at the desk and a member of staff on the phone discussing how they weren’t down to vote when they thought they should be. Hopefully they weren’t EU citizens getting screwed over and it was resolved in the end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Werthead said:

However, the party itself would face a major threat from the Brexit Party, who'd likely peel off so many Tory votes that the Tories cannot form a working government and would face a coalition with the DUP and Brexit Party which would be, of course, on the basis of a No Deal Brexit. The Brexit Part might face a huge problem there in not having any policies on the NHS and other areas, which is something they can ignore at the EU elections but they can't on a national level. The DUP might also face blowback by campaigning in favour of a No Deal Brexit (or Brexit at all) when the majority of the population of Northern Ireland voted to Remain.

It's difficult to tell how firm the Brexit Party's recent surge in support will be once the Tories are lead by a big Brexit supporter. I don't know if anyone really knows the answer to that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Philokles said:

Voted Lib Dem in the end. A couple of different tactical voting websites gave different advice as to whether I should go for them or CUK in the South East, which wasn’t especially helpful.

The polling station wasn’t particularly busy, but there was a rather anxious looking couple at the desk and a member of staff on the phone discussing how they weren’t down to vote when they thought they should be. Hopefully they weren’t EU citizens getting screwed over and it was resolved in the end.

There seem to be specific areas where voting Green is a better idea, but the general idea is that if in doubt, voting LibDem might be worthwhile as there is a good possibility they could be in 2nd place overall in the polls, which would be a stunning comeback. I'm not sure if CUK have a realistic chance of picking up a seat anywhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Philokles said:

Hopefully they weren’t EU citizens getting screwed over and it was resolved in the end.

It appears they've been systematically screwed, all over the country. This is some shady shit.

UK government may face court action after EU citizens denied vote

Quote

 

The government is facing calls to launch an urgent investigation into the treatment of EU citizens in the European elections after many people reported being denied their democratic right to vote.

Voters across the country told of their devastation at finding their names crossed off the register due to clerical errors by local councils. Experts said the situation was a “scandal we knew was coming” and that the government may have a case to answer in court.

The affected voters said they felt they were being “silenced” as this was the only election they had a right to participate in, being ineligible to vote in the referendum or general elections.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Werthead said:

There seem to be specific areas where voting Green is a better idea, but the general idea is that if in doubt, voting LibDem might be worthwhile as there is a good possibility they could be in 2nd place overall in the polls, which would be a stunning comeback. I'm not sure if CUK have a realistic chance of picking up a seat anywhere.

Maybe one in London, but I think it’s unlikely anywhere else.

I voted Lib Dem in the West Midlands  - the tactical voting sites suggested that I maybe should have voted Green but I have a mate who’s a Lib Dem member so I went for them instead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×