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UK Politics: Awaiting MV3

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Possibly. It'd be a gamble but it would mean that Boris (or whoever wins; it's not a given it'll be Boris) doesn't actually get to get his hands dirty by negotiating Brexit. He might calculate that losing the election and watching Corbyn mess up Brexit might serve him better in the long-term than taking power now. He did flee the 2016 contest partially on this calculation, after all (Boris's primary motivation is not taking or face responsibility for anything that could possibly be described as his fault). The problem might be if Boris loses the election so heavily that he is forced to resign, which blows up that possibility in his face.

However, the party itself would face a major threat from the Brexit Party, who'd likely peel off so many Tory votes that the Tories cannot form a working government and would face a coalition with the DUP and Brexit Party which would be, of course, on the basis of a No Deal Brexit. The Brexit Part might face a huge problem there in not having any policies on the NHS and other areas, which is something they can ignore at the EU elections but they can't on a national level. The DUP might also face blowback by campaigning in favour of a No Deal Brexit (or Brexit at all) when the majority of the population of Northern Ireland voted to Remain.

There's also the possibility that the Tories crash out of government, Labour takes power (either individually or in a coalition with the resurgent LibDems and maybe the SNP - which is difficult but not totally impossible) and then actually does an okay Brexit with a customs union deal which mitigates the worst impact on Britain and, whilst there's a handful of people left screaming afterwards it's not a real Brexit, a huge proportion of the country says fuck it, good enough, let's move on, and Labour then hold onto power for a full five years (and who knows what happens at that point) and the Tories managed to destroy themselves again in Opposition by arguing about their Brexit policy for the subsequent election.

You'd think that if the majority in NI voted remain that if the DUP campaigns for No Deal Brexit they'd basically lose all their seats. So if they are returned to Parliament and have enough seats to be needed for a coalition then NI voters might want to remain, but they don't want to enough to actually influence the make up of Parliament to achieve a remain outcome. Does the DUP have enough of a hold on the hearts and minds of NI voters that their Brexit stance will be irrelevant to their fortunes?

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52 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

It appears they've been systematically screwed, all over the country. This is some shady shit.

UK government may face court action after EU citizens denied vote

 

So called bastions of democracy and self appointed defenders of freedom and human rights (UK and USA) systematically disenfranchising their own people, or people in whose trust they have been placed, is an ill omen for the short term fortunes of democracy.

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21 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

You'd think that if the majority in NI voted remain that if the DUP campaigns for No Deal Brexit they'd basically lose all their seats. So if they are returned to Parliament and have enough seats to be needed for a coalition then NI voters might want to remain, but they don't want to enough to actually influence the make up of Parliament to achieve a remain outcome. Does the DUP have enough of a hold on the hearts and minds of NI voters that their Brexit stance will be irrelevant to their fortunes?

Due to the combination of the electoral system and five local parties competing for votes they can still potentially win plenty of seats even if they just depend on the minority of leave voters - they only got 36% at the last General Election but won the majority of the seats. Maybe they will lost some votes next time, but I suspect most of the people who voted DUP last time won't be particularly surprised at their Brexit stance.

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