US Politics: Don't Panic - Organize

[DMC]

3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Meow meow meow!

?

[Jace, Extat]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

?

Meow listen here...

[Larry of the Lawn]

What's that you say meow?

[DMC]

Now you stop laughing right meow!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I think you’ve all overdosed on snozzberries.

[Rippounet]

Anyone seen this?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/05/10/teacher-battling-cancer-must-pay-her-own-substitute-teacher-california-its-law/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.939e5cdafb9f

Quote

 

A teacher battling cancer must pay for her own substitute. In California, it’s the law.

For decades, seriously ill teachers in California have been forced to pay the salaries of their substitute teachers while taking extended leave. But this week, outrage over the law emerged so loudly that the state legislature might as well have just passed it yesterday.

Like many terrible stories, this one came to light with a GoFundMe page.

Parents in the San Francisco Unified School District launched a fundraiser for a second-grade teacher on April 25 after discovering that she was not only battling breast cancer but was also having to pay for her own substitute. KQED reported about the teacher’s predicament and the fundraiser, shocking the local community and leading to nationwide scrutiny of the law.

 

 

[lokisnow]

Chait absolutely nails it in this article:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/what-joe-biden-is-teaching-democrats-about-democrats.html

[Mlle. Zabzie]

13 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

Chait absolutely nails it in this article:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/what-joe-biden-is-teaching-democrats-about-democrats.html

I have to say I agree.  Bubble bias is real and Twitter is a bubbling cess pool of bubbleness (or something).

[Martell Spy]

China Slaps New Tariffs on the U.S., and Trump’s Plan to Deal With It Is Not Great

https://slate.com/business/2019/05/china-us-trade-war-tariffs.html

Quote

 

Beijing has quickly proved him right. On Monday, the Chinese imposed additional duties on $60 billion worth of U.S. exports, ranging from 5 percent to 25 percent, which will take effect on June 1. The move is retaliation for Donald Trump’s decision last week to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods from China to 25 percent after the countries failed to agree on a trade deal.

China’s new tariffs will cover thousands of American products. Unfortunately, the list only appears to be available in Mandarin, but according to the Guardian, it includes a whole array of food, alcoholic beverages, chemicals, and some manufactured goods.

 

 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/eric-zorn/ct-perspec-zorn-abortion-rape-heartbeat-ohio-child-argentina-20190509-story.html

 

11 year old rape victim forced to carry to delivery

[DMC]

26 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

Chait absolutely nails it in this article:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/what-joe-biden-is-teaching-democrats-about-democrats.html

I only read the first section, but no he really doesn't.  That the party isn't actually as progressive as the emergent left - and that that left is far too demanding in terms of any infractions among the presidential candidates violating ideological purity - are rather self-evident points that have been made frequently by many for at least the past six months. 

But that's not the objection many have to Biden's candidacy.  It's because he is a far-too appropriate representation of the Democratic Party of the past 30 years, meaning the "triangulation" of Clinton and passivity of Obama.  Moreover, his non-apologies only serve to reinforce that he is a Clintonian candidate that will be the easiest for Trump to cast as Hillary 2.0 to drive up his unfavorables in order to somehow win reelection when only 45% of the electorate actually favors another term.

17 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

China Slaps New Tariffs on the U.S., and Trump’s Plan to Deal With It Is Not Great

The Dow's down 697 as I'm typing this.  Any bets on where it winds up by closing today?

[lokisnow]

35 minutes ago, DMC said:

I only read the first section, but no he really doesn't.  That the party isn't actually as progressive as the emergent left - and that that left is far too demanding in terms of any infractions among the presidential candidates violating ideological purity - are rather self-evident points that have been made frequently by many for at least the past six months. 

But that's not the objection many have to Biden's candidacy.  It's because he is a far-too appropriate representation of the Democratic Party of the past 30 years, meaning the "triangulation" of Clinton and passivity of Obama.  Moreover, his non-apologies only serve to reinforce that he is a Clintonian candidate that will be the easiest for Trump to cast as Hillary 2.0 to drive up his unfavorables in order to somehow win reelection when only 45% of the electorate actually favors another term.

The Dow's down 697 as I'm typing this.  Any bets on where it winds up by closing today?

Nah, he's the one least likely to get cast as Hillary 2.0 because Biden is actually likable to virtually everyone, except by the left. hah.

[lokisnow]

1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

China Slaps New Tariffs on the U.S., and Trump’s Plan to Deal With It Is Not Great

https://slate.com/business/2019/05/china-us-trade-war-tariffs.html

 

If China isn't putting a $1000 per smart phone tariff on every smart phone to leave its shores, it won't work.

Want to make the west truly suffer and demand capitulation? Cut off the globe's supply of phones by forcing prices to double. and restrict the outflow to 10% of normal, while having the remaining 90% be "delayed" mired in red tape inspections of said cargo, capitalism would then force the supply shortage to further escalate costs. 

China doesn't really need to do anything else. just that, and they'd win.

edit: actually a $1000 per phone tariff would just make people’s amortized phone payment double from 30-50 to 60-100 and a ton of people would still pay that.  So the tariff needs to be a lot more to actually have an rapid impact, probably $10,000 per phone.

[Fragile Bird]

32 minutes ago, DMC said:

The Dow's down 697 as I'm typing this.  Any bets on where it winds up by closing today?

It will be interesting to see what happens - the pattern so far has been late-day recovery. It is up 100 points since from that low. Or it could turn around and fall some more. The last hour is critical.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

It is “dangerous,” Breyer concluded, “to overrule a decision only because five Members” of the court disagree with it. “Today’s decision can only cause one to wonder which cases the Court will overrule next.” And if there were any doubt which cases Breyer was alluding to in this dark denouement, he cited the portion of Planned Parenthood v. Casey that explained why Roe should be upheld. The justice has hoisted a red flag, alerting the country that the court’s conservative majority is preparing an assault on the right to abortion access.

The Supreme Court’s Liberals Are Warning Us That Roe v. Wade Is in Mortal Danger

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/stephen-breyer-hyatt-dissent-roe-v-wade-kavanaugh-supreme-court.html

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

It will be interesting to see what happens - the pattern so far has been late-day recovery. It is up 100 points since from that low. Or it could turn around and fall some more. The last hour is critical.

Not good, not good at all, thanks to that pack of idjiots who can't even educate the idjiot in chief about how tariffs work.

In the meantime here's a comparison between Pelosi and the War of the Rebellion's McClellan:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/opinion/pelosi-trump-civil-war.html?

Quote

 

The way I see it, the Democrats are roughly in McClellan’s position. With the House of Representatives in hand, they have the power and authority to aggressively check the president’s behavior. Voters, who cast a vote against Trump as much as they did for a Democratic majority, may not expect it, but it’s hard to think they would oppose it. And Trump is unpopular, with a 42 percent approval rating despite presiding over strong economic growth.

Democrats have the upper hand, but they aren’t acting like it. Yes, they have taken action against the president — that’s why he has fought to stymie their investigations. But the logic of their arguments and accusations leads to impeachment, and there, they have flinched, worried that the public — or at least Republican voters — will rally to his side. Instead of a direct confrontation using everything at their disposal, Democrats want to maneuver around the president as if there’s another path to victory.

But there isn’t. The next election will be about Trump. His base, as well as most Republican voters, will almost certainly be with him. What Democrats need is the confidence of their position. At this stage, when most Americans say they won’t vote for Trump in 2020, they have the public. They have evidence of wrongdoing. They have all the tools they need to seize the initiative and center the next year of political conflict on the president’s contempt for the Constitution and the welfare of the American people

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

So the markets tried briefly to rally, but in the last hour dropped back again..

Off hand, I would suggest selling out of at least part of your portfolio if you can. I think there is a short window of opportunity before a correction, maybe a week. Eventually there will be a buying opportunity. Have some cash. There is an "in transit" exception for goods currently being shipped to the US, but everything else gets hit with tariffs. This round includes lots of consumer goods, so you will be seeing inflation.

Perhaps someone can address the issue of the bind the Fed will be in if inflation goes up while there are powerful demands for lower interest rates.

If you are really optimistic, cooler heads will prevail and a trade deal will be reached. However, the US is asking China to basically change their economy from a centrally controlled command economy to a more capitalistic economy. It's pretty hard to imagine China being able or willing to do so. Hell, imagine if China demanded Trump release 20 years of tax returns and that all states allow easy access to abortions in return. Maybe China should put 100% tariffs on goods from states that don't comply.

In the long run, the US has a stronger hand, because the US buys so much more from China than China buys from the US. I heard Cramer make a sarcastic comment about "it's all about almonds, folks". Trump has suggested money from the tariffs could be used to provide farmers with support payments, using the highest level of farm sales to China as the guiding payment point. You know, those funds that were going to pay off the debt? You the American consumer are going to pay $800 or more a year on consumer goods to prop up Trump's base on the farms.

I say 'in the long run' the US has a stronger hand, but that's sort of a short-term long run. In the extended term, the US does not have either the manufacturing plants or the cheap labor to to reproduce cheap Chinese goods. You don't make shoes and apparel. Or toys. or tvs. Those plants can be built, of course, but omg, are you ever going to pay through the nose for consumer goods. Our economies are driven by consumers, and when the consumer stops buying there's going to be a recession, and one would think, a big drop in the GDP for a decade or so. I expect the Chinese will just tell people to tighten their belts.

[Jace, Extat]

35 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

So the markets tried briefly to rally, but in the last hour dropped back again..

Off hand, I would suggest selling out of at least part of your portfolio if you can. I think there is a short window of opportunity before a correction, maybe a week. Eventually there will be a buying opportunity. Have some cash. There is an "in transit" exception for goods currently being shipped to the US, but everything else gets hit with tariffs. This round includes lots of consumer goods, so you will be seeing inflation.

Perhaps someone can address the issue of the bind the Fed will be in if inflation goes up while there are powerful demands for lower interest rates.

If you are really optimistic, cooler heads will prevail and a trade deal will be reached. However, the US is asking China to basically change their economy from a centrally controlled command economy to a more capitalistic economy. It's pretty hard to imagine China being able or willing to do so. Hell, imagine if China demanded Trump release 20 years of tax returns and that all states allow easy access to abortions in return. Maybe China should put 100% tariffs on goods from states that don't comply.

In the long run, the US has a stronger hand, because the US buys so much more from China than China buys from the US. I heard Cramer make a sarcastic comment about "it's all about almonds, folks". Trump has suggested money from the tariffs could be used to provide farmers with support payments, using the highest level of farm sales to China as the guiding payment point. You know, those funds that were going to pay off the debt? You the American consumer are going to pay $800 or more a year on consumer goods to prop up Trump's base on the farms.

I say 'in the long run' the US has a stronger hand, but that's sort of a short-term long run. In the extended term, the US does not have either the manufacturing plants or the cheap labor to to reproduce cheap Chinese goods. You don't make shoes and apparel. Or toys. or tvs. Those plants can be built, of course, but omg, are you ever going to pay through the nose for consumer goods. Our economies are driven by consumers, and when the consumer stops buying there's going to be a recession, and one would think, a big drop in the GDP for a decade or so. I expect the Chinese will just tell people to tighten their belts.

Americans already subsidize farms to fuck and back so that some libertarian sheep fucker in Montana can keep his lifestyle.

Been going on since like the 30's.

[A True Kaniggit]

I only counted 9 meows in this thread. And am not best pleased.

[The Anti-Targ]

5 hours ago, lokisnow said:

Nah, he's the one least likely to get cast as Hillary 2.0 because Biden is actually likable to virtually everyone, except by the left. hah.

I've said it a few times. The most effective thing the opposition party can do to try to unseat a 1st term president is not come out with a whole bunch of policy, but nominate someone with broad charismatic appeal, and preferably a war hero especially in this election. 

If Biden actually does appeal to the few 100,000 voters needed to change the 2016 electoral map to blue, then he's your man. If you are interested in getting Trump out via the ballot box then the policy alignment with personal views is secondary. If you are interested in bring about a second progressive wave hot on the heels of the 2018 intake of young progressives, then Biden is probably not your guy, but winning the White House might also be a good bit harder to achieve.