US Politics: Don't Panic - Organize

[DMC]

6 hours ago, lokisnow said:

Nah, he's the one least likely to get cast as Hillary 2.0 because Biden is actually likable to virtually everyone, except by the left. hah.

No.  Absolutely no.  He's the one that is MOST likely to get cast as Hillary 2.0.  Anyone that doesn't understand that doesn't understand politics.

[lokisnow]

I think a vast amount of people who have voted for democrats would have no problem voting for Biden, (but did have various problems voting for Clinton), actual self-identified democrats probably similar, actual leftists that also identify as democrats, much smaller. 

Democrats need a couple cycles cleaning up their congressional bench by replacing the do nothings, do littles and octogenarians before they can enact any policy wins. Biden not cocking it up would be good, and hey, he's a year or two older than Trump, the life expectancy of rich white men who are alive at 75 is a bit over ten years, so there's a quite reasonable chance either septagenarian will be dead by 2024 anyway, opening the door earlier what the left wants, particularly if they get mollified with a less moderate fella in the veep slot who sweeps in Teddy bear roosevelt style.

But democrats are having an extraordinarily severe classic game theory problem: In their respective states, O Rourke, Abrams, Hickenlooper and Bulluck would all have much better than ordinary shots to flip republican senate seats to democrat senate seats in 2020, giving democrats 51 seats if they got them all, but all are running for president and all are polling between 2% and 0%. The people who could actually flip the senate are directly saying "fuck the country, fuck my state, I'm out to get me mine, suckas!" and that attitude almost certainly means democrats have already lost the 2020 senate battle and also probably means they are nearly equally certain to lose the presidential race as well.

 

 

 

[lokisnow]

Just now, DMC said:

No.  Absolutely no.  He's the one that is MOST likely to get cast as Hillary 2.0.  Anyone that doesn't understand that doesn't understand politics.

I think I understand your convoluted and complicated reasoning here, which is basically, both have long records and the long record is what people hated about Hillary therefore Trump recognizes that what people hated was the long record, which is why Trump will brand Biden as Hillary because he knows his base gets super duper emotional about long records.

Right?

I think Hillary 2.0 is a misguided fear. People hated Hillary because they already always hated her. Whether it was misogyny, or Hillary care, or ordering secret service people to guillatine aides (or any other insane chain email from the 90s), Or Lewinsky, or the grotesque carpetbagging clinging to power in her first senate run, or Benghazi! or butteremails, it was never about having a long record making her unelectable, it was that for a long period of time, people found her unlikeable.

Presidential Politics fundamentally has extremely little to do with policy, and almost entirely is about likability. Whatever anyone thinks of Biden, and he's way down on my list from the 2020 clown show, he has always been extremely likable. Trump can't brand Biden as having always been unlikeable without an extremely complicit media, so far the left is definitely collaborating hard with Trump to create this fake news of Biden being unlikeable, but I don't think it is working because making Biden unlikeable is contingent on retrograde views on race/busing and gender/AnitaHill. And for all that this seems to agitate some vapor-prone leftists, looking at Biden's numbers with African Americans and women, it seems like it is utterly meaningless, because they already like him and they've always liked him and one thing we can be sure of its that people don't change their minds.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

I think I understand your convoluted and complicated reasoning here,

LOL, my two-line response is "convoluted and complicated?"  Good luck with your day job.  

....The quote function is not working for me right now, dunno why and sorry.  Anyway, first, Trump can indeed brand Biden - as in Biden is most vulnerable to Trump's attack.  That's clear to any political professional.  Second, his favorability is all name recognition right now.  As an example, remember Trump didn't even announce his candidacy until what would be the equivalent of this June.

9 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

But democrats are having an extraordinarily severe classic game theory problem: In their respective states, O Rourke, Abrams, Hickenlooper and Bulluck 

No, you're wrong again.  Hickenlooper would be fine with Colorado because it's pretty blue anyway.  But Beto isn't gonna shift Texas,  nor Abrams with Georgia nor Bullock with Montana.  Those states are red.  It's nice to think the former two are trending blue, but not in the next year.  

[Zorral]

Listening to a live feed from Howard University of a political rally of Bernie and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez.

Naomi Klein is speaking now.

I'll be at Howard tomorrow myself (nothing to do with this rally, well, not exactly, anyway).

 

[ThinkerX]

To me, Biden seems like the easiest democratic candidate for Trump to demonize, with that gay mayor coming in a close second.  Sanders has the left mobilized, but he's too damn old, and Warren is kind of 'meh.'  Pence would stand a fair shot of beating any of them.  

 

To me, the most promising democratic candidate by far is Harris because she might be able to walk the centrist tightrope (prosecutor, tough on crime) while appeasing the more left types.  Given her performances thus far, Trump would be in serious jeopardy going against her in the debates.  She's the best shot against Pence. 

[DMC]

21 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

To me, the most promising democratic candidate by far is Harris because she might be able to walk the centrist tightrope

We'll see once primary season starts in earnest, but yes, I think I've been pretty clear that I favor Harris.

[lokisnow]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

To me, Biden seems like the easiest democratic candidate for Trump to demonize, with that gay mayor coming in a close second.  Sanders has the left mobilized, but he's too damn old, and Warren is kind of 'meh.'  Pence would stand a fair shot of beating any of them.  

 

To me, the most promising democratic candidate by far is Harris because she might be able to walk the centrist tightrope (prosecutor, tough on crime) while appeasing the more left types.  Given her performances thus far, Trump would be in serious jeopardy going against her in the debates.  She's the best shot against Pence. 

Sanders and Warren he's already demonized effectively He tried with some decrepit reference with Pete, but it was a swing and a miss, which shows Trump is not infallible when it comes to nicknames, he should just go with "Mayor Butt-gag" which would also educate the midwest about buttplugs, which would make the race more entertaining. 

I doubt Mr Birth Certificate have much trouble demonizing Booker or Harris.

[lokisnow]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

LOL, my two-line response is "convoluted and complicated?"  Good luck with your day job.  

....The quote function is not working for me right now, dunno why and sorry.  Anyway, first, Trump can indeed brand Biden - as in Biden is most vulnerable to Trump's attack.  That's clear to any political professional.  Second, his favorability is all name recognition right now.  As an example, remember Trump didn't even announce his candidacy until what would be the equivalent of this June.

No, you're wrong again.  Hickenlooper would be fine with Colorado because it's pretty blue anyway.  But Beto isn't gonna shift Texas,  nor Abrams with Georgia nor Bullock with Montana.  Those states are red.  It's nice to think the former two are trending blue, but not in the next year.  

uh, candidate quality matters, Colorado and Montana have one dem senator already, and these three candidates are uniquely well suited to their states. this isn't pulling a moth eaten democrat out of yesteryears cupboard like in 2018's Tennessee race, these four are contemporary that have already proven to be more popular and competitive than a replacement democrat in their respective states.  I agree about O Rourke, because I think if he ran again for the effectively the same office, it would be a poor look, Abrams running for Senate instead of Governor is not a bad look in the same way. 

unseating any incumbent is hard. having a generic colorado back bencher dem to perform as well as hickenlooper when you're trying to flip a seat is a much bigger lift, regardless of the tilt of the state. 

Unless democrats are going to break up the big states (please lets do eight californias! 4.5 million in each one!) they have to win senate seats in red states. Giving up years in advance and not contesting the elections with strong candidates is a recipe sure to ensure permanent minority status.

[Serious Callers Only]

Climate change 'in action' (this is a copy paste obviously but eh):

 

Quote

 

General

The Mississippi River Has Been Flooding For 41 Days Now

These 12 Photos Show the Mississippi River Flooding That's Decimating Small Towns

Midwestern Floods Pit Communities Against One Another as Levees Rise Ever Higher

Millions face flooding threat from Texas to Arkansas with more heavy rain on the way

Heavy rains, 'incredible' flooding blamed for 2 deaths across Southeast from storm system

Arkansas

Heavy rain and floods send a 9-foot alligator fleeing into Arkansas farmland

Illinois

Disaster Proclamation issued for flooding in 34 Illinois counties

Mississippi River Breaks 1993 Flood Record West of Chicago

Chicago Riverwalk Flooding Is a Climate Change Reminder

Iowa

A record we didn't want*

Kansas

When will the Turnpike reopen? It depends on the rain, and damage left by floodwaters

Kentucky

Trump issues disaster declaration for 57 Ky. counties affected by floods (April)

Louisiana

Baton Rouge, Louisiana, to break record for longest river flood event since 1927 on May 21

Pumps will never be enough in ‘A city that floods’*

Flooded homes, cars, businesses now just a part of life in New Orleans, residents say after latest storm

'Up to my kneecaps in water': New Orleans slammed with heavy rains, flooding streets

Michigan

Trapped residents rescued by boat as Detroit, suburbs hit hard by flooding (May 1)

Minnesota

Minnesota requests flood damage assessments as initial estimates exceed $32 million

Mississippi

Flooding causes train derailment in Mississippi

State of emergency declared in Jackson, Mississippi, as flood waters rise

Missouri

Another Missouri levee is in danger as seemingly endless flood continues

Evacuations ordered following levee breaches along Mississippi River north of St. Louis

North Dakota

Flooding From Above: Capturing the Red River at 1,600 Feet (April)

Ohio

Lake Erie expected to tie record May high water level, could break all-time high in June

High water hits Lima region (April)

Oklahoma

Tulsa County officials preparing for potential flooding in wake of Keystone Dam water release

Tennessee

Nashville, Middle Tennessee are drying out after record February rainfall and flooding (February)

President Trump declares major disaster in Tennessee after severe storms, flooding (April)

Texas

'Hope and pray' Drivers sleep in cars as intersection floods in north Houston

Deadly flooding is rocking Texas. Scientists say this is our future under climate change.

Schools close in water-soaked Houston as serious flooding continues for 20 million

 

Eh.

And ofc:

 

https://techcrunch.com/2019/05/12/co2-in-the-atmosphere-just-exceeded-415-parts-per-million-for-the-first-time-in-human-history/

[lokisnow]

Even when democrats have a vast majority they always capitulate to republican demands and temper tantrums:

Remember when democrats tried to deny Republicans a quorum in TX and WI? Republicans threw a temper tantrum and the democrats gave up and the republicans got everything they wanted and democrats got nothing.

Well the exact reverse just happen. Republicans denied a quorum to democrats in Oregon and democrats immediately struck a bargain to give up their legislative agenda if republicans would come back and promise to be nicer.

https://www.opb.org/news/article/oregon-senate-democrats-give-up-gun-control-vaccine-bills-gop-walkout-return/

[lokisnow]

3 minutes ago, Serious Callers Only said:

snip

Fake News! if the mainstream media reported on any of this, it would imply that both sides are not equally to blame, ergo it is auotmatically already always fake.

[Jace, Extat]

Would it be unreasonable to hope that a factor in these ridiculously early campaigns is the opportunity for certain bottom feeding losers who aren't worth the broken seal on their mothers' defective morning after pills to bow out into Senate/Governor races with a fattened war chest and in-place campaign infrastructure? And indeed is it prohibited to begin a race for such a lower office concurrently with a "suspended" presidential bid as a workaround for any "laws" against such activity?

My stupid Fed and State Gov professor was unable to communicate clearly whether or not it is illegal to apportion funds accrued for a Presidential bid in service of pursuing a lower office and vise versa.

I've been given the impression (indirectly) that this should be illegal, but have failed to secure definition.

[Jace, Extat]

11 minutes ago, Serious Callers Only said:

Climate change 'in action' (this is a copy paste obviously but eh):

 

Eh.

And ofc:

 

https://techcrunch.com/2019/05/12/co2-in-the-atmosphere-just-exceeded-415-parts-per-million-for-the-first-time-in-human-history/

Thank you for linking that.

I had to stop after just the third from the top. I don't think my neighbors appreciate my insane gleeful laughter and I can't move again.

[Serious Callers Only]

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/los-angeles-fire-season-will-never-end.html

 

It's not all good news obviously. Global warming is global.

[Jace, Extat]

13 minutes ago, Serious Callers Only said:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/los-angeles-fire-season-will-never-end.html

 

It's not all good news obviously. Global warming is global.

Well shit, when you link stuff that's happening in MY America it's not fun anymore!

What's wrong with you!?! Bringing information I don't like to my attention is a hateful attack that proves your bigotry! If I had a vaccine I wouldn't stab you with it because if you're going to develop an intense enthusiasm for a limited number of interests I will be neither the cause nor the subject of such specified engrossment.

[ThinkerX]

3 hours ago, lokisnow said:

Sanders and Warren he's already demonized effectively He tried with some decrepit reference with Pete, but it was a swing and a miss, which shows Trump is not infallible when it comes to nicknames, he should just go with "Mayor Butt-gag" which would also educate the midwest about buttplugs, which would make the race more entertaining. 

I doubt Mr Birth Certificate have much trouble demonizing Booker or Harris.

With Harris, it is not about Trumps ability to demonize her (no doubt he'd try) but how hard she would hit back.  Former prosecutor.  Imagine her cross examining Trump at a debate, effectively publicly humiliating him so severely that even his followers have to acknowledge he lost.  Works for adds, too.

[A True Kaniggit]

8 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

humiliating him so severely that even his followers have to acknowledge he lost.

"chokes in middle of drink"

Wait what? You actually think they'd ever do that?

 

[ThinkerX]

1 hour ago, A True Kaniggit said:

"chokes in middle of drink"

Wait what? You actually think they'd ever do that?

 

It has happened.  that is when Trump supporters start whining about how 'libatards are unjustly attacking the greatest president in history' along with 'attempted coup,' and 'why can't these people show the man some respect?  why do they keep dragging him down?'  I see this in comments all the time - and get the occasional earful from people at work as well.  It is the stock reaction of Trump followers when they cannot defend Trumps actual actions or words.

 

  Harris, because of her background, has the potential to ramp this up another couple of notches - to Trump directly.  Mentally, Trump probably could not handle such a direct rebuke.  Full meltdown / mental collapse on national television, far more severe than anything so far.  

 

Additionally, in online comments and at work, I note a slight but steady increase in Trump supporters who nonetheless have grave doubts about many Trump policies - that Helsinki mess *really* rattled a lot of them, to cite but one example.  

 

 

[A True Kaniggit]

30 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

*snip*

I got halfway through typing a reply, and then got too bummed out while describing why the people in my state vote how they vote. I'll finish it up and tell you in a bit.