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US Politics: Don't Panic - Organize


Fragile Bird

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Decriminalized abortion -- no backlash; purely political (and anti-woman -- remember this war that has been going on since Nixon in particular, the War on Women?) politics.

https://twitter.com/HC_Richardson/status/1092882948465086465

When Roe V Wade became law, fewer Dems supported abortion than republicans.  Read the twitter feed link above to find out what happened . . . .

 

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Every time I see a lead line like “polling is just name recognition” I get more irritated. That rhetorical framing is naked motivated reasoning.

Reporters, wonks and analysts need a story so they take a conclusion that allows them to unilaterally invalidate the data so they can write their think pieces

maybe Biden’s enduring majorities and pluralities in literally every fucking poll taken since November 2016 is not actually reflective of what “insert issue article here” and rando journalist wants to write that day, but maybe just maybe that consistent trove of data in fact shows exactly what it proports to show: people really want Biden.

nothing more complicated, nothing less, if you think otherwise you’re just deluding yourself with what you already want to believe.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

People really want Biden?  Which people? 

Nobody's polled me.

I don't want him.

 

Honestly? Probably lower-information voters who like his association with Obama. And to be clear, while they might be low-information voters they vote just as often (if not moreso) than the high-information ones, and there are a whole lot of them. 

They probably aren't on twitter all that much, and probably aren't out there at massive rallies (though Biden's rallies have done well so far). But they exist, and ignoring their existence is going to result in a lot of uncomfortable reality checking in the future. 

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But why is my existence being ignored and not even polled hmmmmmmmmmm?

And I've actively disliked Biden and his policies and those who have owned him for years, long before he was Obama's vp.  And I'm far from the only one.

Beyond that, one of those so-called low info voters you mention: I heard a lengthy interview with one of them on an NPR program this week.  He hates Biden too, blames him -- and the Dems -- for his misfortunes from the crash in which he lost his job and his house and had to live in his truck.  He blames Biden for actively protecting the banks and corps that did this to him, and the Dems generally for not regulating and not stopping them.  And then not helping him in his time of need.

He's doing brilliantly now, with his own construction biz in a small community north of Detroit.  He voted for T***p and loves him.  Thinks he's the best thing to happen to this country in a long time.  Everything he does wrong is what is to be expected and he doesn't care -- especially business wise, because that's what a person does to get ahead.  He wouldn't do biz with T***p himself because he's too smart, known his record of burning everyone he's worked with.  And if what he's doing now hurts others, he doesn't care because he's suffered and it's time others feel what he's suffered, especially the farmers who are always getting bail outs and subsidies.  He hates everyone, really, and feels T***p does too, and he likes that.  He wants us all to burn.

Yet he thinks the tariffs aren't going to hurt him at all -- his nails and all that steel he uses?  So what if it comes from China.  We'll make 'em here.

 

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I don't care if Jesus or Satan wins the Dem primary; I'm pulling the lever for them regardless in November 2020, without even having to hold my nose, because either will be better than Trump.

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2 hours ago, lokisnow said:

Reporters, wonks and analysts need a story so they take a conclusion that allows them to unilaterally invalidate the data so they can write their think pieces

Or maybe they're just properly interpreting the recent history of the data:

Quote

CBS began polling among Democratic primary voters in September 2003 — shortly after retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark entered the race. Clark (12 percent) was the frontrunner in that poll, followed by Congressman Dick Gephardt (10 percent) in second place and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (9 percent) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (9 percent) tied for third. The eventual nominee — Sen. John Kerry — came in fifth (8 percent). [...]

In March 2007, 36 percent of Democratic primary voters preferred Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, ahead of Barack Obama (28 percent) and John Edwards (18 percent). Clinton would retain this frontrunner status right up until January 2008. [...]

In 2008, CBS News Republican primary polling began in May with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (36 percent) in the lead — a lead he held through the remainder of 2007. Sen. John McCain (22 percent) came in second – ahead of Mitt Romney (15 percent) — but as other candidates entered the fray, in December he found himself tying for fourth place with Fred Thompson at just 7 percent. [...]

CBS primary polling for the 2012 election began in September 2011 with Rick Perry (23 percent) in the lead and Mitt Romney (16 percent) in second place.

It's not deluding oneself to to be suspect of polls this early, and it's perfectly fine to point to name recognition.  I'd venture to say suggesting it points to "people really [wanting] Biden" is a far more delusional statement.

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looks like at least one Republican congressman thinks Trump is guilty of impeachable offenses:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-rep-president-trump-has-engaged-in-impeachable-conduct/ar-AABylVn?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR0d5wY1kBBXeFF6txiIDuZ7Qxqph_lgIwVUIvjGfEB8XdGrTX1muutD3OY

 

Congressman Justin Amash of Michigan penned a lengthy Twitter thread on Saturday afternoon, concluding that — after having read the full report from Special Counsel Robert Mueller — "President Trump has engaged in impeachable conduct," and "Attorney General [William] Barr has deliberately misrepresented Mueller’s report."

These were the top two of of four "principal conclusions" listed by Amash after what he described as a careful and compete reading of the full, but redacted 448-page Mueller report on the special counsel's investigation into Russian election interference and allegations the president obstructed justice.

Amash's two other topline conclusions were that "Partisanship has eroded our system of checks and balances," and "Few members of Congress have read the report."

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The senate etc. may not be reading Mueller's report, redacted or not, but somebody is, as Mueller's report is #1, #2 and #3, on the NYT best seller lists; it's also #1 on amazilla.  There's a loooooooooooong wait list for it on the NYPL ebook programs, and all the hard / soft cover print editions too.

https://www.vox.com/culture/2019/5/18/18629326/mueller-report-top-three-slots-new-york-times-best-seller

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8 hours ago, Zorral said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/opinion/joe-biden-president.html?

"The Democratic Party of 2019 does not look much like Joe Biden. Women, African-American, Latino and Asian voters are all much more likely to say they support Democratic candidates than Republican ones. White voters, male voters and especially white male voters generally support Republicans. 

Statistics on who votes Democratic also suggest that the Democratic Party is more diverse than the experts deciding who is electable."

Any time I read something like this I have to ask myself; is the author stupid or just dishonest?  In this case I think she's probably dishonest.  She couldn't be so stupid as to read statistics that badly, she's being way to selective.  White males cast as many votes for Democrats as black females and males did combined in the last election.  Blacks cast the most votes for Democrats of any minority.  Democrats biggest voting block is white women. Unless the argument is that only white women should be the nominee than this silly "doesn't look like the party" idea should be discarded.

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Quote

 

Even though Republicans claim they care about babies, they don’t do anything to leave them a better world by supporting the Green New Deal or any similar legislation. “The GOP doesn’t care about babies at all—especially brown, black, or poor ones,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote.
If they did, Republicans would “at LEAST have a real climate plan,” support healthcare, and “not stand for the death+caging of babies on our border.”

 To the GOP extremists trying to invoke “the unborn” to jail people for abortion: Where are you on climate change? OH right, you want to burn fossil fuels til there’s hell on Earth. If they were truthful about their motives, they’d be consistent in their principles. They’re not.


The GOP doesn’t care about babies at all - especially brown, black, or poor ones. If they did, they’d:
- cosponsor the Green New Deal or at LEAST have a real climate plan
- guarantee healthcare so ALL can get prenatal care
- not stand for the death+caging of babies on our border

This hypocrisy though is part of a pattern, Ocasio-Cortez said, adding that what “angers” her most about  “the GOP’s attempts to turn the United States into a far-right Christian theocracy is how dishonest they are about it.” At the very least, she noted, Republicans should be “forthright” about their “desire to subvert and dismantle our democracy into a creepy theological order led by a mad king.”

 

Ocasio-Cortez: Republicans Are Trying to Turn U.S. Into “Far-Right Christian Theocracy”

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/ocasio-cortez-republicans-republicans-far-right-christian-theocracy.html

 

Yeah, AOC looked like a real extremist. Until the Republicans decided that women need to carry the babies of their rapist for reasons.  This was such an insane radical idea that even the Republican House minority leader has disavowed it. Every Republican needs to be constantly asked if they support this medieval idea. 

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1 hour ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

Democrats biggest voting block is white women.

Link that proves this?

I've looked but haven't found that stated anywhere except from you.

Instead this is what I find:

https://www.vox.com/first-person/2018/11/9/18075390/election-2018-midterms-white-women-voters

 

Quote

 

The majority of white women have not been part of a Democratic voting bloc throughout the 2000s.

While many white women and the majority of voters of color tend to vote more progressively, disaggregating these polls by race and gender reveals some hard truths about the potential for building a progressive coalition. White women and even Latinx voters of all genders continue to lag behind black voters — in particular black female voters — when it comes to showing up for Democrats.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Link that proves this?

I've looked but haven't found that stated anywhere except from you.

Instead this is what I find:

https://www.vox.com/first-person/2018/11/9/18075390/election-2018-midterms-white-women-voters

 

 

 

It's from the CNN exit polls of the 2018 midterm elections that were linked in the editorial: Exit Polls. 35% of voters were white males.  39% of those males voted Democrat (13.65% of voters overall). 11% of voters were black. 90% of them voted Democrat (9.90% of the electorate),   Overall 60% of voters who cast a ballot for Democrats were white.

 

Black women may be great at voting for Democrats but there isn't that many of them.

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57 minutes ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

It's from the CNN exit polls of the 2018 midterm elections

Why are you linking 2018 poll for the general election to argue a point about the 2020 Democratic primary electorate?

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Just now, DMC said:

Why are you linking 2018 poll for the general election to argue a point about the 2020 Democratic primary electorate?

Why are you so cold and distant? Don't you see the boy just wants your love!?! Dammit, DMC, be a father for once in your life!!!

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1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Why are you so cold and distant? Don't you see the boy just wants your love!?! Dammit, DMC, be a father for once in your life!!!

Venture around other threads.  Was just at a gathering in which I had to explain to way too many people why I don't want to be a father.

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