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US Politics: Don't Panic - Organize


Fragile Bird

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44 minutes ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

Because it was linked to in the op-ed that we were discussing.

Well then it seems an entirely farcical way to present evidence then, or at best just wholly incompetent.

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Who saw the Leslie Jones brilliant "Dracarys!" rant aimed at the old white guys in Alabama passing laws to control her body?  Whew -- she and her writers got a frackin' lot of productive, energetic momentum from the last scenes of both eps. 4 and 5 of Got.  Black woman about to be beheaded by a white force shouting to another white woman, burn the mf down all the way down and the white woman's dragon by gawd did it.

 

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6 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

You'll remember that my first comment was questioning whether the op-ed writer was stupid or just dishonest.

Perhaps the same question could be asked of you, based on your responses, particularly the incredibly racist and lame bit about there aren't that many black women who vote.  You know nothing about this country and who is getting things done everywhere to say such a stupid thing.

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30 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Perhaps the same question could be asked of you, based on your responses, particularly the incredibly racist and lame bit about there aren't that many black women who vote.  You know nothing about this country and who is getting things done everywhere to say such a stupid thing.

Or here’s a radical thought: black women can be really kickass at getting things done and be the most dependable Democratic voters, but not have the sheer numbers to decide a national presidential election. (What with African Americans making up roughly 12% of the population and, y’know not being a monolith, plus some who either don’t vote at all or are being disenfranchised from voting, etc.)

Not being needlessly insulting and rude is also an idea that might be worth embracing.

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6 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

You'll remember that my first comment was questioning whether the op-ed writer was stupid or just dishonest.

..K.  Your first comment concerning the op-ed you didn't like did indeed mention the midterm electorate in her piece, but that's not evident in the original issue you raised:

13 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

White males cast as many votes for Democrats as black females and males did combined in the last election.  Blacks cast the most votes for Democrats of any minority.  Democrats biggest voting block is white women. Unless the argument is that only white women should be the nominee than this silly "doesn't look like the party" idea should be discarded.

This strongly suggests your contention is about her interpretation of the primary electorate - which she did also mention quite a bit (and was clear about bringing up the contrast between the 2018 midterm electorate, btw).  In terms of attacking that op-ed because she's saying the Democratic electorate is getting more diverse?  That's actually reading the statistics perfectly fine, and there's no legitimate reason to criticize that point.  Again (I posted this links earlier in the week), In terms of trends, the Dem primary electorate IS becoming more diverse and educated, especially when you just focus on the early states:

Quote

The Democratic primary electorate is tilting more heavily toward minorities and well-educated whites, solidifying the dominance of women and experiencing reduced participation from blue-collar whites. (Though many political professionals believe that exit polls, before a recent shift in methodology, traditionally underestimated the share of whites without college degrees in the general election, some private analyses of primary trends by potential 2020 candidates show the same pattern.) [...]

African-American voters rose from 19% of the cumulative vote in the 2008 analysis to 24% in 2016, while Latinos fell from 12% to 9% (a result likely influenced by the omission of California). Black voters increased their share from 2008 to 2016 in four of the states CNN examined, while Latinos grew in six of them, most dramatically in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia.

 

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24 minutes ago, DMC said:

especially when you just focus on the early states:

Sorry for the double post.  I started ETA'ing this put I think it deserves it's own post:  

To clarify what I mean by "early states," I was referring to the data that CNN article provided.  They included Nevada and South Carolina - no one is arguing that Iowa and NH aren't still almost entirely white - at the top to emphasize why the increasing diversity is important.  And from 2008 to 2016, the nonwhite vote went from 35 to 41 in Nevada and 57 to 65 in South Carolina.  So clearly it's becoming increasingly important to appeal to diversity.  Then, in the states they provided data on, there are three states that will (at this time) be a part of Super Tuesday in 2020 after the first four contests:  North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.  Texas had a 57% nonwhite vote in 2016.  North Carolina and Virginia had 38 and 37, respectively. 

That's without mentioning Alabama (which almost certainly has a minority-majority nonwhite Dem primary electorate as well), Arkansas, Tennessee, and California.  That's a huge ass chunk of Super Tuesday when you put all 7 states together.  And combined with Nevada and South Carolina, it makes it perfectly clear how important the nonwhite vote is.

So just as a general rule here, when people say the primary electorate is growing more diverse and that needs to be emphasized, it's not about "identity politics" or ignoring the unrelenting importance of "low information whites."  It's about properly reading statistics.  

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19 hours ago, DMC said:

It's not deluding oneself to to be suspect of polls this early, and it's perfectly fine to point to name recognition.  I'd venture to say suggesting it points to "people really [wanting] Biden" is a far more delusional statement.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to frame that people  DO really want Biden right now. They really wanted Clinton in 2008 as well. Then Obama showed he could actually, ya know, win, and all of a sudden people changed their views.

Both things can be true - Biden can be wanted by almost a majority of voters right now, and Biden may not be the eventual nominee. 

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28 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I think it's perfectly reasonable to frame that people  DO really want Biden right now. They really wanted Clinton in 2008 as well. Then Obama showed he could actually, ya know, win, and all of a sudden people changed their views.

Both things can be true - Biden can be wanted by almost a majority of voters right now, and Biden may not be the eventual nominee. 

I just woulda thunk (not really, but this is the part where I pretend I'm a good guy) that after '16 our political prognosticators might factor a twinge of humility into their formulas. 

The American people are Grade A Stupid and Republicans sadly dont have a monopoly on idiocy. Biden is gonna win exactly because he's the white bread just-creepy-enough-to-lose option. 

He's the perfect avatar of the Democratic party. Old as fuck, vaguely rapey, formerly racist, only likes the gays 'cause they might vote for him, isn't Trump. What's not to like? 

Biden represents all of the ways the Democrats are ripping themselves to pieces while Republicans prance away with... basically everything. I know indulging in even the barest hint of hyperbole is a sin here because I'm supposed to act like the court packing and overturning of Roe v Wade isn't a settled issue already. But imma do it anyway. Republicans won. Everything. They've gotten everything they could have hoped for out of Trump including small scale mock ups of the concentration camps their children will administer.

Meanwhile Democrats are splintered and leaderless with Joe Biden as the only man who could reclaim the Throne of Gondor. And really, what's he gonna do? It's only gonna get worse. As the Republicans become increasingly solidified in their fascistic ideologies Democrats will keep expanding into and over each coalition's policy concerns, weakening the party.

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1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

Both things can be true - Biden can be wanted by almost a majority of voters right now, and Biden may not be the eventual nominee. 

Sure if you wanna frame it like that I got no problem.  That's not how it was framed. 

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