Bowen's next decision

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

6 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Ser Patrek was trying to steal Val to prove he was a manly man after Selyse decided that he would marry her (Val not Selyse). Jon explains to Ser Patrek and Selyse that wildling custom. Jon has Wun Wun sleeping at the entrance of Hardin's Tower to protect Val after she is moved there. So Ser Dumb-Dumb probably decided that going around the giant to get to the girl was a very intelligent idea. 

Right that's what I thought. 

6 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Anyway, I doubt Selyse had anything to do with Jon's stabbing. If she had then she's going against Melisandre and she'd be as good as gone.

I agree. Selyse doesn't have any motive & she isn't going to go against Mel anyway. 

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

For sure. You would think if she had the power & the willingness to do this though she would have done something to stop the assassination before it happened. But maybe her visions weren't showing her who exactly the culprits were. 

I think it is quite clear that if Mel wanted Jon to be killed - else she would have tried to prevent it. And she knew he would be killed as early as the start of ADwD, so whatever visions she had about that would have likely only gotten more clear as the date approached.

One can imagine she saw two futures - one where Jon comes to her after the Pink Letter, considering her talk implied there was a future where he did that, and another where he belongs to her by ways of becoming a fire wight when she resurrects him. If Jon owes his second life to Mel in any way he is going to be in her debt big time - and that's definitely the kind of thing she wants.

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I think it is quite clear that if Mel wanted Jon to be killed - else she would have tried to prevent it. And she knew he would be killed as early as the start of ADwD, so whatever visions she had about that would have likely only gotten more clear as the date approached.

One can imagine she saw two futures - one where Jon comes to her after the Pink Letter, considering her talk implied there was a future where he did that, and another where he belongs to her by ways of becoming a fire wight when she resurrects him. If Jon owes his second life to Mel in any way he is going to be in her debt big time - and that's definitely the kind of thing she wants.

Oh Yeah! I didn't think about that. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

17 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

For sure. You would think if she had the power & the willingness to do this though she would have done something to stop the assassination before it happened. But maybe her visions weren't showing her who exactly the culprits were. 

This is what she tells Jon as early as Jon I. This is bearing in mind that Jon has just been elected by the NW.

"This is my place as it is yours, and soon enough you may have grave need of me. Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side. You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?"
"I know their names."
"Do not be so certain." The ruby at Melisandre's throat gleamed red. "It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold." (Jon I, ADwD 3)

Jon tells her he knows their names and while we don't know his thoughts on this, I think he might have been thinking of the men who were the most vocal about their hatred of him, Slynt and Thorne. So maybe he thought the danger was gone with Slynt dead and Thorne off beyond the Wall.

And these are Mel's thoughts from her chapter;

The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen. (Melisandre I, ADwD 31)

Jon didn't want anything to do with Mel and even less after the grey girl on the dying horse debacle. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

16 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

This is what she tells Jon as early as Jon I. This is bearing in mind that Jon has just been elected by the NW.

"This is my place as it is yours, and soon enough you may have grave need of me. Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side. You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?"
"I know their names."
"Do not be so certain." The ruby at Melisandre's throat gleamed red. "It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold." (Jon I, ADwD 3)

Jon tells her he knows their names and while we don't know his thoughts on this, I think he might have been thinking of the men who were the most vocal about their hatred of him, Slynt and Thorne. So maybe he thought the danger was gone with Slynt dead and Thorne off beyond the Wall.

And these are Mel's thoughts from her chapter;

The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen. (Melisandre I, ADwD 31)

Jon didn't want anything to do with Mel and even less after the grey girl on the dying horse debacle. 

I know dang him! The stubborn fool could have at least kept Ghost with him if he didn't want to listen to anything else she said. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

7 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I know dang him! The stubborn fool could have at least kept Ghost with him if he didn't want to listen to anything else she said. 

Eh! It's all good. Some lessons are learned the hard way. And he'll have a fiery rebirth.

[kissdbyfire]

On 8/26/2019 at 1:52 PM, The Fattest Leech said:

I don't remember this happening. Could you provide the quotes for this please?

No. Duh.

[kissdbyfire]

9 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Has anyone ever considered that Selyse had a role in that? She didn't like Jon, she hates the Wildlings, she could have pushed Ser Patrick to attack Wun Wun… 

Nope. Ser Patrek wanted to prove himself worthy of Val, so he tried to steal her. As it turns out, he wasn’t worthy of her and got what he had coming. 

9 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I mean, she is clever, self confident and ruthless enough to manipulate people to get rid of Jon.

I disagree. For starters, religious zealots are never ever as smart as they think they are. And Selyse is nothing but a nutcase religious zealot. 

[divica]

44 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I disagree. For starters, religious zealots are never ever as smart as they think they are. And Selyse is nothing but a nutcase religious zealot. 

Shouldn t selyse actually be interested in defending jon? He is the one that is keeping the NW from attacking her in order to satisfy ramsay's claims... There is no reason for selyse to plot against him at the moment.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think it is quite clear that if Mel wanted Jon to be killed - else she would have tried to prevent it. And she knew he would be killed as early as the start of ADwD, so whatever visions she had about that would have likely only gotten more clear as the date approached.

One can imagine she saw two futures - one where Jon comes to her after the Pink Letter, considering her talk implied there was a future where he did that, and another where he belongs to her by ways of becoming a fire wight when she resurrects him. If Jon owes his second life to Mel in any way he is going to be in her debt big time - and that's definitely the kind of thing she wants.

If she wanted jon in her debt and knew he was going to be attacked (nobody knows if he died) she could have said to him to be aware of his attackers (naming them). When they attacked and he survived because of her warning he would be in her debt.

Letting him die seems too risky just to gain his favor. If she did let him die then it is because she thinks it is important to defeat the others and for some vision she had. 

4 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold."

Interesting quote. Technically this is exactly what happens to jon and it gives evidence to jon not being dead because the blood froze.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Nope. Ser Patrek wanted to prove himself worthy of Val, so he tried to steal her. As it turns out, he wasn’t worthy of her and got what he had coming.

One could also say that some vile giant just killed a man he had not right to kill.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

I disagree. For starters, religious zealots are never ever as smart as they think they are. And Selyse is nothing but a nutcase religious zealot. 

That's actually a wrong statement. Religious zealots are not less smart or intelligent as non-religious zealots. And Selyse is more like some kind of cult-leader victim, who looked for recognition and support in Melisandre in light of the fact that she is married to as fucked-up a man as Stannis Baratheon.

20 minutes ago, divica said:

Shouldn t selyse actually be interested in defending jon? He is the one that is keeping the NW from attacking her in order to satisfy ramsay's claims... There is no reason for selyse to plot against him at the moment.

Selyse has indeed no reason whatsoever to make common cause with Marsh. He is favoring Tommen, not Stannis, and to turn against Jon after Stannis was allegedly killed is basically suicide.

20 minutes ago, divica said:

If she wanted jon in her debt and knew he was going to be attacked (nobody knows if he died) she could have said to him to be aware of his attackers (naming them). When they attacked and he survived because of her warning he would be in her debt.

I assume he is dead until proven otherwise.

That would depend on what kind of vision she had exactly. Say, if there is a future that benefits her and agenda much better if Jon is a fire wight there then, well, she would go with that version of the future. Especially if Jon becomes sort of her thrall or dependent on her on an altogether different level in such a future.

We know from her chapter she is playing a game with Jon to win his trust - if she is the one who gives him his life back he will be very much in her debt. Even more so if the whole thing is actually reversible. We know the fire resurrection spell thingy is not all that stable (Beric could pass it on to Cat) so - who knows? Perhaps Melisandre can as much breathe life into Jon's corpse as suck it out of him?

Even if she only gave Jon the impression that his new life is dependent on Melisandre's continuous magic he would be in a very awkward position.

And make no mistake - while Jon's spirit might be sort of 'protected' in Ghost from being summoned back from beyond, his body is dead and will be resurrected. It will be driven by magic in the future, like Beric and Cat's body, although likely with much less rotting on smelling (due to ice cells preserving his flesh in pretty good condition).

20 minutes ago, divica said:

Letting him die seems too risky just to gain his favor. If she did let him die then it is because she thinks it is important to defeat the others and for some vision she had.

Sure, it would likely be some sort of vision or a combination of visions which would lead her to point that this possible future is the one which suits her ultimate agenda best. The core of that certainly is to save mankind from evil, etc.

[Aline de Gavrillac]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think it is quite clear that if Mel wanted Jon to be killed - else she would have tried to prevent it. And she knew he would be killed as early as the start of ADwD, so whatever visions she had about that would have likely only gotten more clear as the date approached.

One can imagine she saw two futures - one where Jon comes to her after the Pink Letter, considering her talk implied there was a future where he did that, and another where he belongs to her by ways of becoming a fire wight when she resurrects him. If Jon owes his second life to Mel in any way he is going to be in her debt big time - and that's definitely the kind of thing she wants.

 

Ice wight is the most likely future for Jon. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, divica said:

Letting him die seems too risky just to gain his favor. If she did let him die then it is because she thinks it is important to defeat the others and for some vision she had. 

I agree. I don't think she wants to let him die or wants him to be hurt. She wants him to trust her as you say.

But she also tells him that soon he will have grave need of her, so maybe she's letting destiny take its course rather than trying to force things this time.

She did that with Renly. She killed him because of her vision and it came back to bite her in the ass in the form of Garlan Tyrell as Renly's ghost during the Battle of the Blackwater. Renly died and Stannis still lost the battle. 

[Ygrain]

On 5/4/2019 at 10:40 PM, Eddard Waters said:

This got me thinking, if he's even alive by that point, how will Bowen react to Jon's inevitable resurrection/recovery?

I'd gladly pay in gold to see his face

[Ygrain]

On 8/26/2019 at 5:36 AM, Capricious Crone said:

IF Ser Alliser Thorne had been at the Wall instead of out ranging, I'm sure he would have been a conspirator and likely a knife wielder.

For some reason, I like to think that Thorne still has some remnants of honour in him and wouldn't have resorted to backstabbing.

[Back in Black-Snow]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

For some reason, I like to think that Thorne still has some remnants of honour in him and wouldn't have resorted to backstabbing.

I so want for Thorne to be a part of this so I can hate him even more, but I agree with this.

Thorne genuinely cares about the Nights Watch, and knows what damage such an act would cause to the Order.

I think all the "animosity" that we've seen from Thorne is his desire (and his job) to make boys and criminals men of the Nights Watch. Then comes along the "bastard" of Ned Stark, who helped overthrow his king.

In a way, if there was another man in the Watch, besides Aemon, who would ask Jon to "Kill the boy and let the man be born (paraphrase)", it would be Thorne.

That's why he goaded Jon with insults, threats and smirks, until Jon gave the order to take Slynt's head.

[three-eyed monkey]

Bowen Marsh had two main gripes. He was not happy about the wildlings, an attitude that only stiffened after his injury on the bridge of skulls, and he did not want the Watch to be seen as treacherous to the crown by aiding the rebel Stannis. He warned Jon that he was appearing too sympathetic towards Stannis' cause, which Marsh viewed as hopeless, and that it was important the Watch choose the right side in the war for the iron throne. 

Marsh could do very little with Stannis present, but once the king took his army south, the plotting began. It would have started with a small group of people he trusted and spread from there. I believe Mance unknowingly had an encounter with the plotters while disguised as Rattleshirt.

Cersei's small council discussed Jon Snow in King's Landing. It was decided that he was a traitor. Swyft, who was Hand at the time, and Pycelle both suggested that they write to the Watch demanding the removal of Jon Snow or else they would be considered traitors. Qyburn suggested sending the Watch some men with some hidden daggers amongst them. Cersei preferred that plan but took it on herself to attend to the matter. She planned having Kettleblack murder the old High Septon, for which she would send him to the Wall, have him kill Jon and then she would pardon him. This plot failed miserably and Cersei was imprisoned. Qyburn tells her that he has been removed from the council and that Swyft and Pycelle are running the realm until Kevan arrives from the West. I think we can take it that with Cersei out of the picture and the Jon Snow issue still unresolved, the letter Swyft and Pycelle proposed was finally written and sent. And with Slynt out of the picture, Marsh was the most likely recipient.

Once Marsh received the letter the pressure intensified. He really had to act or risk been taken as a traitor by the side he considered the right side in the war for the crown.

Stannis had gone south, Selyse remained with a small retinue of knights, some who were lamed or crippled, and Jon's hold on the watch was far from secure, but the arrival of Tormund's army was far from ideal from the conspirator's point of view. The wildlings would have posed the biggest problem for the plotters and it is hard to see how they might account for that without some luck, which they duly received.

Clydas was an important part of the conspiracy given that he tends to the ravens. I think the smear of pink wax is a clear hint that the pink letter was opened and resealed as the conspirators read the letter first. They would have learned that Stannis was dead, which meant the Lannisters and Boltons were indeed the right side in the war. The Lord of Winterfell was demanding the rest of Stannis' court to be delivered. Jon had lied and somehow kept Mance alive and sent him to steal Ramsay's bride. Jon was already considered a rebel but there was no way back after that. The longer the conspirators wait to act against Jon the more likely they are to be seen as complicit in the actions of their Lord Commander. They had to do it and do it soon, for the watch. But again, the wildling army was still a problem.

They delivered the letter to see how Jon would react and after some time Jon called an assembly in the shieldhall. The shieldhall can seat 300 men at best but standing room would swell that number. It's still hard to see it containing all the wildlings, which number over 3000. But it seems that most of the wildling leaders were present and a lot more besides, outnumbering watch by five to one Jon thinks. He also observes very little black so it seems most of the watch were not present. Regardless, Jon read the letter, announced his intentions, got his swords, and then left the wildlings drinking in the hall.

If Jon rode south as promised then Marsh and the Watch would be seen to have stood by and done nothing or else seen as complicit. They had to act immediately. Marsh left the shieldhall as soon as Jon got the swords to ride against Ramsay. That was go.

The Wun wun incident left Jon isolated and distracted which is the perfect time for the knives to strike.

Several hundred wildlings, including their leaders, were also vulnerable. It would only make sense to lock them in, barricade the place, or contained in some way. Burning them alive might be a stretch due to it being a stone hall. Poisoning their ale might be an option but the short notice might be a problem.  But it is certainly advantageous to have the wildling leadership group isolated and contained.

There would still be a large number of wildlings that were not at the shieldhall but leaderless against armoured and mounted foe striking with surprise then I can only see them routed despite their numerical advantage. I think the watch might fancy their chances in that battle, given how Stannis had routed the wildlings with a smaller force.

Selyse and her company would also have to be contained, given that Marsh considers her a rebel to the crown. He'd see her capture and delivery to the Lord of Winterfell as further proof of the Watch's loyalty to the crown. And in terms of justifying his actions as lawful he would have the paper shield from Swyft and Pycell.

I believe Marsh would want a clear majority of the Watch behind him for something like this and probably wouldn't have moved so openly if he didn't have it This would account for the low numbers in the shieldhall. I also think that the pink letter pushed the plan into operation. There were a few hours between the letter being delivered to Jon and Jon leaving the shieldhall. Enough time to get organised, armed, mounted etc.

[Back in Black-Snow]

13 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Bowen Marsh had two main gripes. He was not happy about the wildlings, an attitude that only stiffened after his injury on the bridge of skulls, and he did not want the Watch to be seen as treacherous to the crown by aiding the rebel Stannis. He warned Jon that he was appearing too sympathetic towards Stannis' cause, which Marsh viewed as hopeless, and that it was important the Watch choose the right side in the war for the iron throne. 

Marsh could do very little with Stannis present, but once the king took his army south, the plotting began. It would have started with a small group of people he trusted and spread from there. I believe Mance unknowingly had an encounter with the plotters while disguised as Rattleshirt.

Cersei's small council discussed Jon Snow in King's Landing. It was decided that he was a traitor. Swyft, who was Hand at the time, and Pycelle both suggested that they write to the Watch demanding the removal of Jon Snow or else they would be considered traitors. Qyburn suggested sending the Watch some men with some hidden daggers amongst them. Cersei preferred that plan but took it on herself to attend to the matter. She planned having Kettleblack murder the old High Septon, for which she would send him to the Wall, have him kill Jon and then she would pardon him. This plot failed miserably and Cersei was imprisoned. Qyburn tells her that he has been removed from the council and that Swyft and Pycelle are running the realm until Kevan arrives from the West. I think we can take it that with Cersei out of the picture and the Jon Snow issue still unresolved, the letter Swyft and Pycelle proposed was finally written and sent. And with Slynt out of the picture, Marsh was the most likely recipient.

Once Marsh received the letter the pressure intensified. He really had to act or risk been taken as a traitor by the side he considered the right side in the war for the crown.

Stannis had gone south, Selyse remained with a small retinue of knights, some who were lamed or crippled, and Jon's hold on the watch was far from secure, but the arrival of Tormund's army was far from ideal from the conspirator's point of view. The wildlings would have posed the biggest problem for the plotters and it is hard to see how they might account for that without some luck, which they duly received.

Clydas was an important part of the conspiracy given that he tends to the ravens. I think the smear of pink wax is a clear hint that the pink letter was opened and resealed as the conspirators read the letter first. They would have learned that Stannis was dead, which meant the Lannisters and Boltons were indeed the right side in the war. The Lord of Winterfell was demanding the rest of Stannis' court to be delivered. Jon had lied and somehow kept Mance alive and sent him to steal Ramsay's bride. Jon was already considered a rebel but there was no way back after that. The longer the conspirators wait to act against Jon the more likely they are to be seen as complicit in the actions of their Lord Commander. They had to do it and do it soon, for the watch. But again, the wildling army was still a problem.

They delivered the letter to see how Jon would react and after some time Jon called an assembly in the shieldhall. The shieldhall can seat 300 men at best but standing room would swell that number. It's still hard to see it containing all the wildlings, which number over 3000. But it seems that most of the wildling leaders were present and a lot more besides, outnumbering watch by five to one Jon thinks. He also observes very little black so it seems most of the watch were not present. Regardless, Jon read the letter, announced his intentions, got his swords, and then left the wildlings drinking in the hall.

If Jon rode south as promised then Marsh and the Watch would be seen to have stood by and done nothing or else seen as complicit. They had to act immediately. Marsh left the shieldhall as soon as Jon got the swords to ride against Ramsay. That was go.

The Wun wun incident left Jon isolated and distracted which is the perfect time for the knives to strike.

Several hundred wildlings, including their leaders, were also vulnerable. It would only make sense to lock them in, barricade the place, or contained in some way. Burning them alive might be a stretch due to it being a stone hall. Poisoning their ale might be an option but the short notice might be a problem.  But it is certainly advantageous to have the wildling leadership group isolated and contained.

There would still be a large number of wildlings that were not at the shieldhall but leaderless against armoured and mounted foe striking with surprise then I can only see them routed despite their numerical advantage. I think the watch might fancy their chances in that battle, given how Stannis had routed the wildlings with a smaller force.

Selyse and her company would also have to be contained, given that Marsh considers her a rebel to the crown. He'd see her capture and delivery to the Lord of Winterfell as further proof of the Watch's loyalty to the crown. And in terms of justifying his actions as lawful he would have the paper shield from Swyft and Pycell.

I believe Marsh would want a clear majority of the Watch behind him for something like this and probably wouldn't have moved so openly if he didn't have it This would account for the low numbers in the shieldhall. I also think that the pink letter pushed the plan into operation. There were a few hours between the letter being delivered to Jon and Jon leaving the shieldhall. Enough time to get organised, armed, mounted etc.

I agree with this, although I still believe Jon is doing/has done the right thing.

But all the pieces that Marsh needs are not in place. Not in my opinion.

I agree with your logic, though (as far as Marsh is concerned).

[Back in Black-Snow]

Which is why Jon will be resurrected and Bowen Marsh will die.

[divica]

25 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Several hundred wildlings, including their leaders, were also vulnerable. It would only make sense to lock them in, barricade the place, or contained in some way. Burning them alive might be a stretch due to it being a stone hall. Poisoning their ale might be an option but the short notice might be a problem.  But it is certainly advantageous to have the wildling leadership group isolated and contained.

There would still be a large number of wildlings that were not at the shieldhall but leaderless against armoured and mounted foe striking with surprise then I can only see them routed despite their numerical advantage. I think the watch might fancy their chances in that battle, given how Stannis had routed the wildlings with a smaller force.

Selyse and her company would also have to be contained, given that Marsh considers her a rebel to the crown. He'd see her capture and delivery to the Lord of Winterfell as further proof of the Watch's loyalty to the crown. And in terms of justifying his actions as lawful he would have the paper shield from Swyft and Pycell.

I believe Marsh would want a clear majority of the Watch behind him for something like this and probably wouldn't have moved so openly if he didn't have it This would account for the low numbers in the shieldhall. I also think that the pink letter pushed the plan into operation. There were a few hours between the letter being delivered to Jon and Jon leaving the shieldhall. Enough time to get organised, armed, mounted etc.

The big problem with this is that there are less than 400 NW brothers in CB and some of them are wildlings and others are jon supporters. So at most bowen would have the suport of 250 to 300 NW brothers (and I think I am being nice).

Then the stewards and builders aren t brave nor are they fighters. I really can t see them deciding to fight a much bigger force than them. I have no idea how many wildlings are present at the moment, but even if they win this initial fight they dont  stand a chance once reinforcements arrive.

And finally, if they had a plan to kill jon they wouldn t act in front of a huge crowd. They just made themselves targets and alerted everybody of their actions. It would be much smarter to kill jon in his quarters or a similar place.

Bowen's action don t seem planed. They look desperate.

[Back in Black-Snow]

37 minutes ago, divica said:

The big problem with this is that there are less than 400 NW brothers in CB and some of them are wildlings and others are jon supporters. So at most bowen would have the suport of 250 to 300 NW brothers (and I think I am being nice).

Then the stewards and builders aren t brave nor are they fighters. I really can t see them deciding to fight a much bigger force than them. I have no idea how many wildlings are present at the moment, but even if they win this initial fight they dont  stand a chance once reinforcements arrive.

And finally, if they had a plan to kill jon they wouldn t act in front of a huge crowd. They just made themselves targets and alerted everybody of their actions. It would be much smarter to kill jon in his quarters or a similar place.

Bowen's action don t seem planed. They look desperate.

This.