Bowen's next decision

[Capricious Crone]

On 5/6/2019 at 5:41 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Knife one was Wick.     Knife two was crying Marsh.    Who welded knife three and four? 

Who stabbed Jon Snow other than Marsh and Whittlestick? Let's look at the quotes below:

Shield Hall, before Jon announced he is riding south:

To his left he [Jon] saw Marsh and Yarwyck. Othell was surrounded by his builders, whilst Bowen had Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd beside him.
~ADWD, Chapter 69, Jon XIII

Shield Hall, after Jon announced he is riding south:

Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he [Jon] saw, and all their men behind them.
~ADWD, Chapter 69, Jon XIII

My guess is that...

If you reread chapter ADWD Jon XIII, you see Yarwyck, Marsh and their men slipped out BEFORE Jon left the Shield Hall giving them precious minutes to set up their ambush.

Othell Yarwyck and his men stirred up Wun Wun as a distraction and Bowen Marsh, Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew and Alf of Runnymudd stabbed Jon Snow. Because Wun Wun was stirred up, Jon didn't see the knives coming until it was too late.

Othell Yarwick and his men are part of the conspiracy.

Known builders at CB that are still alive at this point are: Othell Yarwyck, Albett, Alf of Runnymudd, Halder, Kegs and Spare Boot.

Known stewards at CB that are still alive at this point are: Bowen Marsh, Arron, Bass, Clydas, Cuger, Dannel, Donnel Hill, Hareth, Three-finger Hobb, Jeren, Mully, Owen the Oaf, Rudge, Satin, Tim Tangletongue, Ty and Wick Whittlestick.

Note: Edd Tollett is at Long Barrow and Sam Tarly is on his way to or arrived at the Citadel so they don't count.

“Three,” Jon told them. “Black Jack, Hairy Hal, and Garth.” Alf of Runnymudd let out a howl loud enough to wake sleepers in the Shadow Tower. “Put him to bed and get some mulled wine into him,” Jon told Three-Finger Hobb.
~ADWD, Chapter 31, Melisandre I -

This could have been the moment Alf turned against Jon. Alf considered Black Jack a good friend and his death, because Jon ordered him beyond the Wall, could have Alf blaming Jon for Jack's death and now he seeks vengeance. Besides this is the only other mention of Alf of Runnymudd I could find in ADWD outside the appendix so it is significant.

I have no idea what Left Hand Lew has against Jon as I didn't find any evidence in the text. He may just be someone willing to do as ordered or someone who just got caught up in the conspiracy (mob mentality).

Maybe a stretch...Septon Cellador could be a conspirator but not a knife wielder. He is anti-Jon Snow as well and not just because of the wildlings coming through the Wall but also because Jon worships the Old Gods and he too strongly objects to Satin as Jon's steward and Leathers as the master-at-arms. And he really doesn't like the corpses in the ice cells.

At Eastwatch is Ser Glendon Hewett, is/was a supporter of Janos Slynt and Alliser Thorne. Hewett was left in charge of Eastwatch when Cotter Pyke sailed for Hardhome. I'm not sure if he is a conspirator or not...likely not given the distance.

IF Ser Alliser Thorne had been at the Wall instead of out ranging, I'm sure he would have been a conspirator and likely a knife wielder.

[kissdbyfire]

I don't think Yarwyck stirred up Wun Wun in any way. Ser Patrek tried to steal Val to prove himself worthy of her, as he basically said he would. 

Also, Othell is a bit of a coward and he doesn't strike me as someone who would pick a side that early in the game. And of course there's the fact that he accepted Jon's hospitality in all the meetings they had, unlike Bowen Marsh. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don't think Yarwyck stirred up Wun Wun in any way. Ser Patrek tried to steal Val to prove himself worthy of her, as he basically said he would. 

Also, Othell is a bit of a coward and he doesn't strike me as someone who would pick a side that early in the game. And of course there's the fact that he accepted Jon's hospitality in all the meetings they had, unlike Bowen Marsh. 

I don't think Yarwyck had anything to do with Wun Wun either. But Yarwyck is a bit of a sheep. For the election of the lord commander Marsh and Thorne managed to talk him into getting out the race and encouraging his followers to vote for Slynt instead. He even goes as far as to say that he doesn't remember the reasoning for it when he announces that he's dropping out.

I think with Yarwyck and his involvement or non involvement may depend on whether he's had the time to consider Marsh's plan or not. I think that for him to be involved, the plan would have had to come together right after the pink letter was read by Jon because at the end of the day, Othell Yarwyck isn't much of a thinker. 

[kissdbyfire]

42 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I don't think Yarwyck had anything to do with Wun Wun either. But Yarwyck is a bit of a sheep. For the election of the lord commander Marsh and Thorne managed to talk him into getting out the race and encouraging his followers to vote for Slynt instead. He even goes as far as to say that he doesn't remember the reasoning for it when he announces that he's dropping out.

I think with Yarwyck and his involvement or non involvement may depend on whether he's had the time to consider Marsh's plan or not. I think that for him to be involved, the plan would have had to come together right after the pink letter was read by Jon because at the end of the day, Othell Yarwyck isn't much of a thinker. 

I agree, Yarwyck is a follower, not a leader, and definitely not the sharpest tool in the box. But I think there's a difference - especially for him, from his PoV- between backing out of the election and backing Slynt and assassinating his LC. That's why I believe he would be a lot more cautious with the latter decision than the former. 

[The Fattest Leech]

Well, I also don't see Othell Yarwyck as a plot leader. There is no doubt that he was part of the four Jon discovered in the hot tub when Jon heard them plotting and trying to manipulate the Night's Watch with southron politics, but as mentioned already, Yarwyck has (or was given) a change of heart about the situation. It is actually Bowen that certain elements seem to be playing with. We see Wun Wun was being attacked, or threatened at minimum, by Ser Patrek- the "cowboy"- as Ser Patrek wanted to prove something by stealing Val. Except, you can't steal a she-bear away from the mate without getting your ass handed back to yourself

This scene in ADWD- Jon 8 seems very telling to me. Who accepts guest right (rites?) and who doesn't? Who is red and who isn't? By the end of the conversation, Yarwyck is rather informal and non-stressed about the situations happening around him, he is actually more concerned with building Nightfort and the arrival of Selyse (as he should be). Yarwyck doesn't want a giant, but he does accept free folk to help build... because history is repeating and the trees have eyes again. This whole time it is Marsh who is the one to keep an eye on. 

Jon tried a bite of sausage. He was washing the taste from his mouth with a sip of ale when Edd returned to tell him Bowen Marsh was without. “Othell’s with him, and Septon Cellador.”

• A Song for Lya reference meaning Jon won't be swayed by the red element.

That was quick. He wondered who was telling tales and if there was more than one. “Send them in.”

“Aye, m’lord. You’ll want to watch your sausages with this lot, though. They have a hungry look about them.”

Hungry was not the word Jon would have used. Septon Cellador appeared confused and groggy and in dire need of some scales from the dragon that had flamed him, whilst First Builder Othell Yarwyck looked as if he had swallowed something he could not quite digest. Bowen Marsh was angry. Jon could see it in his eyes, the tightness around his mouth, the flush to those round cheeks. That red is not from cold. “Please sit,” he said. “May I offer you food or drink?”

“We broke our fast in the commons,” said Marsh.

“I could do with more.” Yarwyck eased himself down onto a chair. “Good of you to offer.”

• Jon offers guest rights and Yarwyck accepts, but Marsh declines.

“Perhaps some wine?” said Septon Cellador.

“Corn,” screamed the raven from the lintel. “Corn, corn.”

• This is a Fevre Dream "king" Josh York reference- whiskey! Uisce beatha.

“Wine for the septon and a plate for our First Builder,” Jon told Dolorous Edd. “Nothing for the bird.” He turned back to his visitors. “You’re here about Val.”

“And other matters,” said Bowen Marsh. “The men have concerns, my lord.”

And who is it who appointed you to speak for them? “As do I. Othell, how goes the work at the Nightfort? I have had a letter from Ser Axell Florent, who styles himself the Queen’s Hand. He tells me that Queen Selyse is not pleased with her quarters at Eastwatch-by-the-Sea and wishes to move into her husband’s new seat at once. Will that be possible?”

Yarwyck shrugged. “We’ve got most of the keep restored and put a roof back on the kitchens. She’d need food and furnishings and firewood, mind you, but it might serve. Not so many comforts as Eastwatch, to be sure. And a long way from the ships, should Her Grace wish to leave us, but … aye, she could live there, though it will be years before the place looks a proper castle. Sooner if I had more builders.”

...

Septon Cellador drank some wine. Othell Yarwyck stabbed a sausage with his dagger. Bowen Marsh sat red-faced. The raven flapped its wings and said, “Corn, corn, kill.”

Finally the Lord Steward cleared his throat. “Your lordship knows best, I am sure. Might I ask about these corpses in the ice cells? They make the men uneasy. And to keep them under guard? Surely that is a waste of two good men, unless you fear that they …”

“… will rise? I pray they do.”

Septon Cellador paled. “Seven save us.” Wine dribbled down his chin in a red line. “Lord Commander, wights are monstrous, unnatural creatures. Abominations before the eyes of the gods. You … you cannot mean to try to talk with them?”

“Can they talk?” asked Jon Snow. “I think not, but I cannot claim to know. Monsters they may be, but they were men before they died. How much remains? The one I slew was intent on killing Lord Commander Mormont. Plainly it remembered who he was and where to find him.” Maester Aemon would have grasped his purpose, Jon did not doubt; Sam Tarly would have been terrified, but he would have understood as well. “My lord father used to tell me that a man must know his enemies. We understand little of the wights and less about the Others. We need to learn.”

• Again a Josh York Fevre Dream reference, practically word for word. Josh is the one trying to bring enlightenment to all by merging the old ways with the new in order to learn. Marsh is stuck in his old ways and will get left behind because of his closed mind (and a bunch of other stuff). Marsh isn't long for this Westerosi world. One more chapter, maybe two, unless he is held on to for Jon to judge when Jon recovers.

[Moiraine Sedai]

13 hours ago, RavenousReader said:

Who stabbed Jon Snow other than Marsh and Whittlestick? Let's look at the quotes below:

Shield Hall, before Jon announced he is riding south:

To his left he [Jon] saw Marsh and Yarwyck. Othell was surrounded by his builders, whilst Bowen had Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd beside him.
~ADWD, Chapter 69, Jon XIII

Shield Hall, after Jon announced he is riding south:

Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he [Jon] saw, and all their men behind them.
~ADWD, Chapter 69, Jon XIII

My guess is that...

If you reread chapter ADWD Jon XIII, you see Yarwyck, Marsh and their men slipped out BEFORE Jon left the Shield Hall giving them precious minutes to set up their ambush.

Othell Yarwyck and his men stirred up Wun Wun as a distraction and Bowen Marsh, Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew and Alf of Runnymudd stabbed Jon Snow. Because Wun Wun was stirred up, Jon didn't see the knives coming until it was too late.

Othell Yarwick and his men are part of the conspiracy.

Known builders at CB that are still alive at this point are: Othell Yarwyck, Albett, Alf of Runnymudd, Halder, Kegs and Spare Boot.

Known stewards at CB that are still alive at this point are: Bowen Marsh, Arron, Bass, Clydas, Cuger, Dannel, Donnel Hill, Hareth, Three-finger Hobb, Jeren, Mully, Owen the Oaf, Rudge, Satin, Tim Tangletongue, Ty and Wick Whittlestick.

Note: Edd Tollett is at Long Barrow and Sam Tarly is on his way to or arrived at the Citadel so they don't count.

“Three,” Jon told them. “Black Jack, Hairy Hal, and Garth.” Alf of Runnymudd let out a howl loud enough to wake sleepers in the Shadow Tower. “Put him to bed and get some mulled wine into him,” Jon told Three-Finger Hobb.
~ADWD, Chapter 31, Melisandre I -

This could have been the moment Alf turned against Jon. Alf considered Black Jack a good friend and his death, because Jon ordered him beyond the Wall, could have Alf blaming Jon for Jack's death and now he seeks vengeance. Besides this is the only other mention of Alf of Runnymudd I could find in ADWD outside the appendix so it is significant.

I have no idea what Left Hand Lew has against Jon as I didn't find any evidence in the text. He may just be someone willing to do as ordered or someone who just got caught up in the conspiracy (mob mentality).

Maybe a stretch...Septon Cellador could be a conspirator but not a knife wielder. He is anti-Jon Snow as well and not just because of the wildlings coming through the Wall but also because Jon worships the Old Gods and he too strongly objects to Satin as Jon's steward and Leathers as the master-at-arms. And he really doesn't like the corpses in the ice cells.

At Eastwatch is Ser Glendon Hewett, is/was a supporter of Janos Slynt and Alliser Thorne. Hewett was left in charge of Eastwatch when Cotter Pyke sailed for Hardhome. I'm not sure if he is a conspirator or not...likely not given the distance.

IF Ser Alliser Thorne had been at the Wall instead of out ranging, I'm sure he would have been a conspirator and likely a knife wielder.

Bowen and whoever else heard that speech would do the deed.  

 

[kissdbyfire]

9 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Bowen and whoever else heard that speech would do the deed.  

 

If that were true Jon would have been stabbed by several dozen people, if not a couple hundred. And we know that didn't happen.

[The Fattest Leech]

14 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Bowen and whoever else heard that speech would do the deed.  

 

I don't remember this happening. Could you provide the quotes for this please?

[Annalee]

Bowen doesn't know fake Arya.  He might send out riders to search for the girl and waste time.  Bowen's men in a race through the snows with the wildlings to find the Stark bride who doesn't exist.  

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 hour ago, Annalee said:

Bowen doesn't know fake Arya.  He might send out riders to search for the girl and waste time.  Bowen's men in a race through the snows with the wildlings to find the Stark bride who doesn't exist.  

Well if he does I suppose all the Bowen supporters that scream to the high heavens that Jon got what he deserved will be ok with Bowen getting stabbed to death as well right? 

Because if Melisandre sending people to look for fArya is Jon meddling in matters of the realm certainly Bowen looking for her himself would be. 

[TheThreeEyedCow]

Bowens next move is to promptly crap his pants as a group of hostile and very confused FreeFolk begin to ask, "and why should we follow you?" Cus.... they're like that. 

If by some miracle the FreeFolk don't instantly respond aggressively, then Bowen is going to have to either put on another election or assume command. Neither seem possible. The latter due in no small part to the aforementioned scenario where-by the freefolk question the worth of their newly, self appointed leader. The former due to enormous task of physically bringing men back to CB. 

As for the Boltons... if that pink letter is real then he hasn't a hope in seven hells of fulfilling his side of the bargain. He's not in possession of half the people mentioned. And the Queens men aren't going to hand over the heir to SE. 

Bowen has blundered. I hope Ghost eats him.
 

[Tagganaro]

23 hours ago, TheThreeEyedCow said:

Bowens next move is to promptly crap his pants as a group of hostile and very confused FreeFolk begin to ask, "and why should we follow you?" Cus.... they're like that. 

If by some miracle the FreeFolk don't instantly respond aggressively, then Bowen is going to have to either put on another election or assume command. Neither seem possible. The latter due in no small part to the aforementioned scenario where-by the freefolk question the worth of their newly, self appointed leader. The former due to enormous task of physically bringing men back to CB. 

As for the Boltons... if that pink letter is real then he hasn't a hope in seven hells of fulfilling his side of the bargain. He's not in possession of half the people mentioned. And the Queens men aren't going to hand over the heir to SE. 

Bowen has blundered. I hope Ghost eats him.
 

I'm not sure if Bowen has blundered from his point of view.  While we may find out there was some longer-standing conspiracy to kill Jon and this was the result of it, I've always viewed the assassination as a desperate reaction to Jon's Shieldhall speech.  Essentially, Jon taking wildlings to go attack the Warden in the North/the Lannister allies confirms Bowen's worst fears and Bowen sees his only option as killing Jon to prevent that from happening.  From that perspective, I'm not sure Bowen really has any sort of plan past taking out Jon, and we can take his words/tears at face value that he believes what he is doing is for the good of the Watch.

I see one possible way to prevent immediate bloodshed and that's a mix of confusion about what happened and possibly Tormund's "blood price"- the hostages the NW took from the wildlings to prevent bad behavior.  It's possible that Bowen moved quickly upon exiting the shieldhall speech to put in motion plans to secure these hostages.  I think it's unlikely he could do it so quickly but possible. 

I also think that from Bowen's perspective killing Jon keeps him cool with the Boltons despite the fact that he won't be able to deliver the hostages the PL demands.  He can then respond to Ramsay by saying  "I killed the guy who took your wife, we don't have her here but if/when she does show up we will return her immediately."  It's obviously not ideal but for Bowen gives him some kind of ground to stand on to stay in the Boltons and Lannister's good graces.  

[The Fattest Leech]

Some of ya'll need to remember that Jon did not read the pink letter aloud (ya know, the one where Ramsay threatened the life of a LC by cutting his heart out and eating it) and then just ride out of the Castle Black with an 'army' to (potentially) head off and preemptive strike the Bastard of Bolton before Ramsay could attack CB first and cause more ruin. As far as Jon knows, Mance went to Long Lake because fArya is NOT at Winterfell, per what Mance tells Melisandre who then tells Jon this (Incorrect) info. Jon was on his way to Selyse, and while Selyse is not well loved, she is an acting queen and voice who could have (theoretically) talked Jon out of it, created another idea, sent her own men in Jon's place, etc. Bowen and co did not wait for reason. They overreacted at very minimum without any sort of due process. No, in reality we readers know that the likelihood of Selyse actually helping anyone but her or Melisandre is slim to none, but Bowen doesn't know that.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

What do you think would happen if Ramsay should show up at Castle Black with his list of unfulfilled demands and Bowen still cannot give him what he wants? Tickle fight then popcorn and a movie? 

I know there are theories out there that say Bowen and co are going to lock everyone in Shieldhall and burn it, but I am not so sure that it will 1) happen, or 2) happen in the great of scale that the theory predicts. Bowen and friends are just too outnumbered. There are also far too many 'magic' elements at play to think this is also just a Bowen idea.

Bowen's next decision will be sword or noose, but he ain't going free.

[Greywater-Watch]

Has anyone ever considered that Selyse had a role in that? She didn't like Jon, she hates the Wildlings, she could have pushed Ser Patrick to attack Wun Wun… I mean, she is clever, self confident and ruthless enough to manipulate people to get rid of Jon.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

3 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Has anyone ever considered that Selyse had a role in that? She didn't like Jon, she hates the Wildlings, she could have pushed Ser Patrick to attack Wun Wun… I mean, she is clever, self confident and ruthless enough to manipulate people to get rid of Jon.

Did he attack Wun Wun? I haven't read them in a while but I thought he was trying to steal Val. Maybe I'm just not remembering right. 

[Lord Varys]

Selyse has nothing to gain by attacking Jon, especially not after Stannis is allegedly dead and Jon just declared war to avenge him. Marsh is

This is the kind of nonsense people come up with who think unsympathetic characters must be responsible for everything.

Yarwyck is also very unlikely to be involved in anything. He is a follower, not a leader, and actually was not convinced by the Slynt cabal to support him back during the choosing.

The idea that the giant - who doesn't seem to be that intelligent - is going to act in a systematic manner also seems as stretch to me. He is already running amok for his own reason, and one assumes some guys with bows and crossbows should bring him down in the near future.

One has to keep in mind that the Wun Wun commotion may have prevented anyone from seeing what happened to Jon, anyway. People would have looked at the giant, not the Lord Commander surrounded by the people who killed him.

If Marsh had a plan he knows he has sufficient supporters in the Watch - both at CB and the other castles that count (Shadow Tower/Eastwatch) - to take it over, either because they were told about the impending assassination or Bowen knows they see things his way once Jon is dead (sort of like people certainly were happy that Caesar were dead, even if they weren't involved in the murder).

[SeanF]

On 5/4/2019 at 12:43 AM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Bowen's choice: Swinging at the end of a rope or being relieved of his head.

More likely, he'll be receiving an appointment with a stake and a pile of logs, as Melisandre dedicates him to the Red God.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

More likely, he'll be receiving an appointment with a stake and a pile of logs, as Melisandre dedicates him to the Red God.

That would be strange, but a rather interesting image.

In fact, if there are going to be sacrifices soon Jon's murderers definitely would be at the top of the list (assuming they lose somehow).

But does Mel have the chance to seize power at the Wall? Stannis left her very few people and while some free folk and black brothers attend her services they are not many yet.

If she delivered on the 'the Wall greatly strengthens my powers' front she could really pull something.

Ond could expect her to suck Axell or some other man dry and sent out a couple of shadows to deal with her enemies - she explicitly stated that those would be much more powerful at the Wall than elsewhere. If CB woke a couple of days later to find Marsh and his cronies brutally murdered in their closed apartments that certainly should put his movement to rest for good - even if he had many followers.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That would be strange, but a rather interesting image.

In fact, if there are going to be sacrifices soon Jon's murderers definitely would be at the top of the list (assuming they lose somehow).

But does Mel have the chance to seize power at the Wall? Stannis left her very few people and while some free folk and black brothers attend her services they are not many yet.

If she delivered on the 'the Wall greatly strengthens my powers' front she could really pull something.

Ond could expect her to suck Axell or some other man dry and sent out a couple of shadows to deal with her enemies - she explicitly stated that those would be much more powerful at the Wall than elsewhere. If CB woke a couple of days later to find Marsh and his cronies brutally murdered in their closed apartments that certainly should put his movement to rest for good - even if he had many followers.

For sure. You would think if she had the power & the willingness to do this though she would have done something to stop the assassination before it happened. But maybe her visions weren't showing her who exactly the culprits were. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

9 minutes ago, SeanF said:

More likely, he'll be receiving an appointment with a stake and a pile of logs, as Melisandre dedicates him to the Red God.

Certainly. There's no shortage of people at the Wall that Mel can/will burn. I'd say seven in total. 

4 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Has anyone ever considered that Selyse had a role in that? She didn't like Jon, she hates the Wildlings, she could have pushed Ser Patrick to attack Wun Wun… I mean, she is clever, self confident and ruthless enough to manipulate people to get rid of Jon.

Ser Patrek was trying to steal Val to prove he was a manly man after Selyse decided that he would marry her (Val not Selyse). Jon explains to Ser Patrek and Selyse that wildling custom. Jon has Wun Wun sleeping at the entrance of Hardin's Tower to protect Val after she is moved there. So Ser Dumb-Dumb probably decided that going around the giant to get to the girl was a very intelligent idea. 

Anyway, I doubt Selyse had anything to do with Jon's stabbing. If she had then she's going against Melisandre and she'd be as good as gone.