Bowen's next decision

[three-eyed monkey]

35 minutes ago, Travis said:

I agree with this, although I still believe Jon is doing/has done the right thing.

I agree Jon is doing the right thing. Marsh thinks he's saving the Watch but he's not looking at the big picture.

20 minutes ago, divica said:

The big problem with this is that there are less than 400 NW brothers in CB and some of them are wildlings and others are jon supporters. So at most bowen would have the suport of 250 to 300 NW brothers (and I think I am being nice).

Yeah I think about 250- 350 myself, give or take a few. But that doesn't mean the rest are willing to fight or die for Jon. I think Jon has a small circle of guys we know and that's about it aside from the wildlings.

 

24 minutes ago, divica said:

And finally, if they had a plan to kill jon they wouldn t act in front of a huge crowd. They just made themselves targets and alerted everybody of their actions. It would be much smarter to kill jon in his quarters or a similar place.

Bowen's action don t seem planed. They look desperate.

They had a plan to kill Jon, there is no doubt about that. It was a co-ordinated attack.

It would be smarter to kill Jon less visibly, but don't you think at least one of the conspirators would have considered that? Marsh is at least average intelligence. It wouldn't take much planning to kill Jon somewhere less visible. I agree there is an element of desperation here though. I feel they did plan to kill Jon less visibly but the Wun Wun commotion risked drawing the wildlings out of the hall so they had to go a little off script while he was still isolated.

I don't buy that a small group of conspirators just decided to kill Jon in plain sight out of desperation with no consideration towards what sort of mortal danger that might put them in. I don't think it was meant to be a suicide mission. They wanted to do this and survive, and that required a plan and a considerable amount of support.

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

52 minutes ago, divica said:

Bowen's action don t seem planed. They look desperate.

Pretty much. I think Marsh's number one objective is to stop Jon from riding to Winterfell. I think the plan to stop Jon came together when Marsh left the Shieldhall with his cronies. It's also very possible that he knew ahead of time about the pink letter and what was in it before Jon had even read it. 

[divica]

2 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Yeah I think about 250- 350 myself, give or take a few. But that doesn't mean the rest are willing to fight or die for Jon. I think Jon has a small circle of guys we know and that's about it aside from the wildlings.

We don t know how many NW men side with jon. It can easily be more than a few… And jon has been boosting the numbers of the NW with wildlings. 

6 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

They had a plan to kill Jon, there is no doubt about that. It was a co-ordinated attack.

It would be smarter to kill Jon less visibly, but don't you think at least one of the conspirators would have considered that? Marsh is at least average intelligence. It wouldn't take much planning to kill Jon somewhere less visible. I agree there is an element of desperation here though. I feel they did plan to kill Jon less visibly but the Wun Wun commotion risked drawing the wildlings out of the hall so they had to go a little off script while he was still isolated.

I don't buy that a small group of conspirators just decided to kill Jon in plain sight out of desperation with no consideration towards what sort of mortal danger that might put them in. I don't think it was meant to be a suicide mission. They wanted to do this and survive, and that required a plan and a considerable amount of support.

I think a small group of conspirators could have thought they were saving the NW and killing a traitor. Therefore when the NW brothers judge them they would end up agreeing with them that jon had to go.

I find this more likely than marsh being able to plan a coup with 200 people. He has no way to know if someone wouldn t betray him…. Don t Forget how hard it must be for 200 people in the NW to agree on something and actually plan it without somebody realising it… If one person simpathetic to jon heard about their plans they would be fucked...

Another problem with burning the hall is that there are plenty of wildlings outsider that could open the door and save their friends. Hell, there is a giant outside! 

On the whole I just think bowen and his friends would need to be some kind of super agents to pull this off.

[three-eyed monkey]

44 minutes ago, divica said:

I think a small group of conspirators could have thought they were saving the NW and killing a traitor. Therefore when the NW brothers judge them they would end up agreeing with them that jon had to go.

Maybe if there was only the Watch to consider. but the wildlings need to be considered too. No, I don't think these guys intended martyrdom.

44 minutes ago, divica said:

I find this more likely than marsh being able to plan a coup with 200 people. He has no way to know if someone wouldn t betray him…. Don t Forget how hard it must be for 200 people in the NW to agree on something and actually plan it without somebody realising it… If one person simpathetic to jon heard about their plans they would be fucked...

I don't think there were 200 conspirators, I think it was just some key officers who could mobilise the rest when the time came. That's how coups usually work and we saw that with Ned and the goldcloaks in King's Landing. I don't think Bowen would have acted so openly if he wasn't sure he had the support.

44 minutes ago, divica said:

Another problem with burning the hall is that there are plenty of wildlings outsider that could open the door and save their friends. Hell, there is a giant outside! 

Yeah I don't see them burning the hall. It's stone and even if the roof was wooden it would be damp and covered in snow.

Like I said, if your going to kill Jon and risk an armed conflict with the wildlings then it's better to do it when their leaders and best warriors are confined in a stone building with limited access.

44 minutes ago, divica said:

On the whole I just think bowen and his friends would need to be some kind of super agents to pull this off.

I don't think so. It's an attempted coup. Relatively small scale compared to some of the stuff we've seen where a region or even the whole realm was at stake.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, divica said:

We don t know how many NW men side with jon. It can easily be more than a few… And jon has been boosting the numbers of the NW with wildlings. 

We don't know how it breaks down in the Watch. Jon has certainly being making tough decisions and each one seems to cost him support or at least create grounds for people to stop supporting him. He's become more isolated. He has added some wildings but only a few and that too might have even cost him some support as not everyone would easily accept wildlings in the Watch.

Bowen Marsh has a lot of legitimate reasons he can use to convince any potential conspirators that action is required. There are people unhappy with wildlings being taken in, with the strain on food resources from the extra mouths, and the potential of being branded traitors by the crown. I think the prospect of using their limited food to feed thousands of wildlings and then starving to death in winter would be enough to sway many.

[Ygrain]

4 hours ago, Travis said:

Thorne genuinely cares about the Nights Watch, and knows what damage such an act would cause to the Order.

That I believe, too.

4 hours ago, Travis said:

I think all the "animosity" that we've seen from Thorne is his desire (and his job) to make boys and criminals men of the Nights Watch. Then comes along the "bastard" of Ned Stark, who helped overthrow his king.

To a degree, I'd say. Some of it is definitely his bitterness over wasting his life at the Wall even though he had done nothing wrong, and I think he considers himself too good to consort with criminals (just like Jon originally did). 

 

4 hours ago, Travis said:

In a way, if there was another man in the Watch, besides Aemon, who would ask Jon to "Kill the boy and let the man be born (paraphrase)", it would be Thorne.

That's why he goaded Jon with insults, threats and smirks, until Jon gave the order to take Slynt's head.

 I don't think he was acting like that for Jon's benefit, but I definitely do see him coming to respect Jon, grudgingly.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 5/3/2019 at 5:56 PM, Mon ami said:

What needs to get accomplished within a short time:

1. Bring the Night's Watch to order.
2. Calm the feud between the Night's Watch and the House of Bolton.
3. Get the Wildlings under control.
4. Prepare for the Others.

#4 is not going to happen unless 1-3 have been addressed.

The brothers of the watch are not going to be a problem.  The watch will regroup quickly.  Bowen can't stop the Wildlings from going to war with the Boltons but he can send a raven to Winterfell with a warning.  The Wildlings are too wild to get in control.  Bowen doesn't have enough men to force them to stay and guard the wall.  

The only way he can calm the feud is send proof of Jon's death to the Boltons and tell the truth.  It was all Jon's doing.  He can send Jon's head to Ramsay.  But I don't know if the two bastards have met.  How would Ramsay know Jon's head?  How about sending Ghost's head with Jon's head.  That's strong proof it's Jon.  Is that enough?  I think so.  

 

Tarring the head is not a good idea, nor necessary in the north.  Dealing with the wildlings will be important.  He can let them ride out without hindrance and make them think he won't interfere.  He can send a raven when it's safe to do so.  

[redriver]

2 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Tarring the head is not a good idea, nor necessary in the north.  Dealing with the wildlings will be important.  He can let them ride out without hindrance and make them think he won't interfere.  He can send a raven when it's safe to do so.  

Does Ramsay want Jon's head?

Not mentioned in the PL.He wants his bride back (whom Jon never had) and he wants his reek.Should the ask the Wildlings to bring Val ,Selyse and monster too?Perhaps they can send a fake Reek?

[Greywater-Watch]

On ‎11‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 5:55 PM, Lord Varys said:

Selyse has nothing to gain by attacking Jon, especially not after Stannis is allegedly dead and Jon just declared war to avenge him. Marsh is

This is the kind of nonsense people come up with who think unsympathetic characters must be responsible for everything.

The reason for me to consider Selyse is, that IF the attack of Wun Wun was part of the plan of the conspirators to create a diversion, then it must be asked who was able to command Ser Patrek to attack Wun Wun (or trigger a turmoil involving Wun Wun and/or Val). And there I can see either Mel or Selyse.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

The reason for me to consider Selyse is, that IF the attack of Wun Wun was part of the plan of the conspirators to create a diversion, then it must be asked who was able to command Ser Patrek to attack Wun Wun (or trigger a turmoil involving Wun Wun and/or Val). And there I can see either Mel or Selyse.

But there is no indication that a diversion was needed. Marsh controls the NW already, Jon is just a naive boy who left the actual administration in Marsh's hands. Jon doesn't even control the roster of his own bodyguard - which is something you should do if you have been warned that people you trust might murder you.

It seems Marsh and his people shadowed Jon after he left the hall and took the first good opportunity to take him out. If there hadn't been any commotion they would have likely lured him into some trap losing a bait - somebody asking him for advice or pretending to come to him with a message from Selyse or Melisandre.

In general:

The idea that Thorne would actually respect Jon is ludicrous. Nor is there any indication that he gives a damn about the NW. He was forced there, didn't want to go. He is unhappy with his position and his lot in life and rightfully so. And Jon is the son of one of the guy who brought him there. He has the same right to despise Jon than Jon has the right to hate the Lannisters.

[Greywater-Watch]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But there is no indication that a diversion was needed.

I see your theory. Personally it looks a bit too much like a coincidence, though.

Taking Jon unawares would have been much more difficult without Wun Wun's rage.

I have read from other posters too that the turmoil involving Wun Wun had been part of the plan as a diversion. And in that case the question must be asked, who could have ordered Ser Patrek to do what he did.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

56 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I see your theory. Personally it looks a bit too much like a coincidence, though.

Taking Jon unawares would have been much more difficult without Wun Wun's rage.

I have read from other posters too that the turmoil involving Wun Wun had been part of the plan as a diversion. And in that case the question must be asked, who could have ordered Ser Patrek to do what he did.

I'm with you. Those mutineers had some great luck if Wun Wun & Ser Patrek just happened to have their altercation right then, with no pressure from any outside source. 

I think someone would have a hard time talking Ser Patrek or anyone into purposefully enraging Wun Wun but the seed had already been planted for Ser Patrek to want to steal Val & the rest wouldn't be hard to work out. 

[Greywater-Watch]

Further, I think not getting his sword drawn from the sheath was no accident either. Jon's attackers were no good fighters and probably took every precaution to reduce Jon's awareness and fighting ability.

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Further, I think not getting his sword drawn from the sheath was no accident either. Jon's attackers were no good fighters and probably took every precaution to reduce Jon's awareness and fighting ability.

Except, going by your theory, then starting this 'distraction' with Wun Wun and Ser Patrek just put Jon into a position in which they had to kill him in front of dozens of witnesses, not all of whom will be on Marsh's side. If this 'distraction' doesn't happen, then they kill Jon a lot less publicly and blame the wildlings, which would get the NW united against them again instead of divided down the middle.

[three-eyed monkey]

I don't think the Wun Wun incident was a planned distraction. While it did distract Jon it also attracted a lot of wildlings from the towers and keeps. I think Marsh and company would have done it less publicly and Wun Wun alerting the castle was not ideal from their point of view.

I find it hard to believe Selyse was part of the plot, or that she sacrificed one of her few remaining knights for the sake of a distraction, or that she thought having her knight ripped apart was the best way to distract Jon.

There is a far more plausible explanation. Mel wasted no time in slipping away from the shieldhall once she heard the news. Selyse must have feared for her life and the life of her daughter. I think it is reasonable to assume a quick exit was the best move given Stannis death and Ramsay's demands. That meant Ser Patrek had to act quickly if he was to get his prize. With his king allegedly dead and the cause seemingly lost, he might have been planning on going his own way or perhaps he would have stayed loyal to the queen, a moot question at this stage, but regardless, I think the timing of Patrek's move makes sense without it being part of the plot against Jon.

 

[Greywater-Watch]

6 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Selyse wasted no time in slipping away from the shieldhall once she heard the news.

Are you sure? As far as I remember, Queen Selyse was not present at the Shieldhall and Jon was on his way to her chambers to inform her.

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Are you sure? As far as I remember, Queen Selyse was not present at the Shieldhall and Jon was on his way to her chambers to inform her.

Sorry, you're right it was Mel and the queen's knights in the shieldhall. Jon looked for them at the end but they had already left. I think the point stands though. Mel and the knights presumably would have gone straight to Selyse, which is why Jon regrets not having gone to her first.

[three-eyed monkey]

One of the aspects I find interesting about this is how Mel reacted, internally. We don't have her pov in the shieldhall but with Mel and Ghost the only potential pov witnesses to the aftermath, I suspect we will get her internal reaction in retrospect early in the next book.

The very first lines of the letter surely struck a cord with her.

Melisandre was robed all in scarlet satin and blood velvet, her eyes as red as the great ruby that glistened at her throat as if it too were afire. "In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him."

*

Queen Selyse was adamant. "None of these was the chosen of R'hllor. No red comet blazed across the heavens to herald their coming. None wielded Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes. And none of them paid the price. Lady Melisandre will tell you, my lord. Only death can pay for life."

*

He ground his teeth. "We do not choose our destinies. Yet we must . . . we must do our duty, no? Great or small, we must do our duty. Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!" Stannis gave a derisive snort.

*

"Would you know if the king was dead?" Jon asked the red priestess.

"He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord's chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt."

*

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

We have to consider what Mel would have made of this. The line is directed towards her. She had seen visions of Azor Ahai wielding Lightbringer so she now faces a dilemma, was she wrong about her interpretation of the vision? It would not be the first time. Or is she confident of her interpretation that Stannis is indeed the man and therefore the letter is false?

Personally, I think the line strongly indicates that Stannis is the architect of the letter, but let's not get into that here. If Stannis was the author, then I think he would hope that she remained confident in her interpretation and recognise her king's hidden signature.

But we have seen that Mel is not as inwardly confident with her interpretation as she sometimes outwardly seems. I think there is a very good chance that the letter makes her change her mind about Stannis and move towards Jon as Azor Ahai. 

 

 

[Greywater-Watch]

24 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

But we have seen that Mel is not as inwardly confident with her interpretation as she sometimes outwardly seems. I think there is a very good chance that the letter makes her change her mind about Stannis and move towards Jon as Azor Ahai. 

What about "Born again amidst smoke and salt"? How does that fit to Jon?

[three-eyed monkey]

10 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

What about "Born again amidst smoke and salt"? How does that fit to Jon?

It didn't really fit Stannis. As Jon pointed out to Mel, Stannis was not born on Dragonstone. Mel will make it fit if she wants it to fit.

I doubt Mel is confident in her ability to raise the dead at this stage but if she does give Jon the kiss of life and she gets the same result as Thoros did with Beric then I think she'll be sold. If it's done on a funeral pyre or something like that, she'll find something that fits. She's processing it already. She asks for a glimpse of Azor Ahai and all she sees is Snow. As I said, I find it hard to judge whether she will stay with Stannis and consider the letter false or consider the letter true and change to Jon. I think she'll go for the latter as I suspect she will be the one to resurrect Jon... although I would prefer if Jon's eyes were blue the next time he opens them.