Is GRRM As Complex As You Believe He Is?

[Megorova]

@The Weirwoods Eyes

My conclusions in that theory (about Jaquen) are based on circumstantial information, not on direct text.

For example, it’s a common knowledge, that there are dungeons and secret tunnels in Red Keep. Even though Maegor executed workers, that build Targaryen castle, people still know about existence of those tunnels. That castle was there for nearly 300 years. And it’s not like all entries into those tunnels are guarded. So it’s likely, that over the years, at least someone, outsiders, had found several of those tunnels. Arya accidentally found one of them. Besides that exit, there’s the one that Varys has used to take Tyrion out of Red Keep (and prior 278 AC Varys also was an outsider, but now he knows all of them); another one in Chataya’s brothel; the one that Littlefinger used to take Ned to where Cat was. I remember those four, but, maybe, in the books some others were also mentioned or used by characters. I think that Faceless Men know about at least some of those tunnels. It’s a logical conclusion. Explanation:

Faceless Men are a secret organization, members of which are professional assassins. It’s obvious, that they are somehow connected to Iron Bank of Braavos (for example – that iron coin). The history of those two organizations is too alike for them not to have the same origin. Based on information about Braavos from The World Book, I think that they are the same organization, most likely, even ruled by the same person. Maybe I’m wrong about this part. Though it was implied in The World Book, that those people, that refuse to pay their debts to Iron Bank, will be offed by Faceless Men. They kill even kings and princes. And several Targaryens did died under suspicious circumstances. So, maybe, they were killed by Faceless Men. Or not.

Though it’s logical, that someone like Faceless Men would have wanted to be prepared, just in case, if they will ever need to get inside Red Keep. So it’s likely, that in those 300 years, they did at least some research.

Many people have used those tunnels. Varys’ little birds. Dozens of them. Shae. Obviously that Chataya and Alayaya also know about them (one of them is in their closet). Aegon IV used those tunnels to visit whores in the city. It’s fairly possible, that he was even bringing some of them into the castle (like Tyrion did). And whores are not a loyal kind of people. They would have gladly sold information about those tunnels, to whoever was willing to pay. Little birds also could be used as a way into the castle. Just kill one of them, take its face, impersonate it, mingle with other birds, and eventually they will go into the tunnels. Done. Or, based on Arya’s experience with FM in Braavos, what they are teaching to her, it’s possible for one of them to pretend to be a street urchin, and to get recruited by Varys’ people, as one of his new little birds.

Based on what Jaquen did, it seems that Faceless Men knew, that there is a tunnel in Red Keep, that leads from Black Cells into the Hand’s Tower, but they didn’t knew where exactly the entry point is. So to get access there, and time to do the search, Jaquen got himself imprisoned and sent into Black Cells. Deliberately.

The other two people, who were also kept in Black Cells, were afraid of Jaquen. Why?

Based on their behavior, and because Jaquen didn’t took them with him, when he left Harrenhal, it seems, that they were not buddies, or acquaintances, or even knew each other, prior the three of them ended up in Black Cells. Based on Ned’s and Tyrion’s experience, it seems that all cells in those dungeons are solo-cells, i.e. all prisoners are kept separately, one per cell. While Arya and Co were traveling towards The Wall, and Jaquen with his buddies were kept chained in the wagon, he wasn’t doing anything. Nothing at all. Not something, that could have scared his “roommates”. He was chained, and there were people near him all the time. So if he tried to get free (and I’m sure that he could have freed himself even while he was in chains), someone would have seen it. But he had to keep his cover, so he wasn’t behaving out of his current character, and kept pretending that he’s just a mere prisoner. Though when they were attacked, and the wagon was burning, he needed time to free himself, but there was no time, so he asked for Arya’s help. If he wasn’t pressed for time, he could have freed himself even without her help.

So, if Jaquen and those two didn’t knew each other prior Black Cells, and if he haven’t done anything scary, while they were traveling together, then it’s a logical conclusion, that he did something that scared those two, while they were in Black Cells. Though how exactly could he have scared them, if all of them were kept in separate cells?

I think that they saw him going out of his cell. He was wandering all over those dungeons, looking for the entry into the secret passage. Could be that he even entered into their cells, to look there too. Just imagine their reaction, when their fellow-prisoner got out of his cell, broke into their cells, and started to feel up walls (looking for a stone that could be pushed into the wall, or feeling for a draft coming out of a hidden tunnel). Especially impressive that would have looked in the middle of the night, when one of the prisoners woke up, and saw that the door into his cell is open, and that there’s someone else near him in his cell, in the darkness, soundlessly crawling all over the cell’s walls.

They got scared of him, because, based on his behavior, him being able to leave his cell, they realized, that even though he can leave whenever he wants, he doesn’t leave, because he wants to be there. He’s exactly where he wants to be. And who does insane stuff like that? – Deliberately lets himself to be locked in Black Cells? Only someone very dangerous. That’s a logical conclusion.

Why did he wanted to be locked in Black Cells? What’s in there, except prisoners and rats? In one of further books, GRRM gave to the readers information, that there’s a tunnel in Red Keep, which leads from the Black Cells to the Hand’s Tower. And what’s in common between the Hand’s Tower and Jaquen’s next destination? – Tywin Lannister. And because Tywin was the King’s Hand, and because GRRM didn’t gave any other information related to what could be in Black Cells, except that tunnel, it’s a logical assumption, that something that Tywin Lannister should have had, was the reason why Jaquen got into Black Cells, and then went to Riverlands. One of possible options.

Now, the evidence that he could have left whenever he wanted. Locks of those cells are easy to pick. Easy for someone like Faceless Man. After he got out of his cell, he could have either quietly killed one of the guards, took his face, impersonated him and went out, or he could have killed all the guards, and then left. Based on massacre that he caused at Harrenhal, he could have killed all the guards at Black Cells. Even old Barristan Selmy managed to get out of Red Keep, even though he was originally unarmed, and those that were sent to kill him, knew how he looked like. For someone who is a super ninja-fighter, that can instantly change his looks, it would have been even easier to get out. But he didn’t. Why? The only logical explanation is that he wanted to be there.

And because he didn’t stayed in Black Cells permanently, even though he could have if he wanted (by impersonating long-term one of the guards), it means that he left because he has already accomplished what he wanted. And because he didn’t left on his own, but instead let people from Night’s Watch to take him along with them, it means, that, most likely, they were going in the same direction as he needed to go. So either whatever he was looking at the Hand’s Tower wasn’t there, or whatever he found there was only part of what he was looking for, and the second part of his mission was supposed to take place somewhere in Riverlands.

I’m not claiming, that that’s exactly what and how happened, I’m just saying, that it’s one of possible options.     

18 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

What evidence is there that he let himself be captured?

Arya saw him naked. You may wonder, why is that relevant, just keep reading.

He wasn't wounded. A fighter with his level of abilities, if he didn't wanted to be captured, wouldn't have let himself be captured without a fight. And to overpower someone like him, his opponents would have had to severely wound him. But he was unharmed. Thus, it's a logical conclusion, that he was captured without a fight. And, based on what he did during escape from Harrenhal, he can fight, like a super-ninja. So his unwounded state is an evidence, that there was no fight.

There's another option, that could be logically dismissed - he was wounded, but then spent a lot of time imprisoned in Black Cells, and thus was already healed by the time, he was taken out of there.

This option is nearly impossible. Based on Ned's case, we see what happens to a wounded person in those dungeons - he dies from sepsis. But even if Jaquen's wounds didn't get infected, still, Black Cells is not a place, where someone can recover. When he was taken out of there, he wasn't malnourished, or too pale. Which means, that he didn't spent there a lot of time, not months and months. The food there is bad and scarse. And he was in a great physical shape (<- Arya saw him naked), when he was taken out. Which in itself is an evidence, that he wasn't wounded, when he was placed there, and that he didn't spent there a lot of time, prior his release.

An evidence, that it's nearly impossible, that someone managed to catch him without a fight, by unexpectedly seizing him - he's too smart for someone to get a drop on him. Just think about how he killed Pate, and that second guy at Harrenhal. He made a plan, how to kill Pate, and to take over his identity. Afterwards he infiltated Citadel. And no one managed to notice, that fPate is not Pate. Even though those people knew Pate for months. So "Jaquen" is very good at what he does. He's a top notch professional. He even managed to kill that guy at Hurrenhal, by making that guy's dog to attack him. How did he managed to do something like that? I have no idea. But something like that requires SKILLS. He's not just a professional assassin, he's very good at what he does. He's very smart, and he meticulously plans what he does.

So, there's no way in hell, that he got captured. By whom? By Superman and what army? There's no one at King's Landing able to be a match for Faceless Man. None.

Thus, it's obvious that he let himself be captured.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Or that he knew of the tunnels

Would be weird, if smallfolk of King's Landing knew about existence of those tunnels, and Faceless Men didn't.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

or that Tywin would have what he was after or have left it in the tower? Tywin has not been hand of the King in over 15 years!

Maybe he wasn't after something that specifically Tywin could have had. Maybe it was something that the Hand should have had. Jon Arryn died, and that something could have been left amongst his belongings, because Lysa left KL in a hurry, so she left Jon's things wherever they were.

Maybe it was something unrelated to the King's Hand. Maybe Jaquen was searching thru the Hand's Tower and Harrenhal looking for a dragon eggs.

It could have been anything. Certain document, or a text of a prophecy, or a dragon egg, or certain magical artifact, or something else entirely.

Though Tywin is a common factor between KL and Harrenhal, so it's likely, that whatever Jaquen was after, was in Tywin's posession. Possibly.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

What evidence is there that he deliberately placed himself with the NW

He could have left, whenever he wanted. But he didn't. Because they were going in the same direction, that he needed to go. Otherwise he would have escaped.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Or that he went through Tywin's belongings in Harrenhall.

There's no evidence of this. Which doesn't mean, that it couldn't have happened.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Especially as by the time he gets there, again, Tywin is not in residence there. Roose Bolton is. 

Maybe he wasn't after Tywin. Or he was hoping that, same as with Jon Arryn, when Tywin left, some of his things were left behind.

Though another common factor between the Hand's Tower and Harrenhal, except Tywin, is dragons. Viserys II, prior he became King, used to be King's Hand. So maybe he eventually brought his dragon egg back from Dragonstone to KL, and was keeping it in his chambers. And there was a Targaryen princess, that was living at Harrenhal for many years with her dragon. So it's possible, that there was a hidden clutch of dragon eggs.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

What evidence is there that this thing he thought Tywin had(no evidence points to him thinking Tywin has anything) is now in the citadel?

We don't know, what he was looking for. But he did knew, what's his after. So he knew in what places should he look for that something. The Hand's Tower in King's Landing, Harrenhal, and Citadel. What's in common between those places, is the reason of Jaquen's journey.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Or that his superiors sent him to the RK?

I think that it's obvious, that he's in Westeros on a mission, not on vacation, or just wandering around. The time of FM is too expensive, to waste it on aimless gallivanting.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

There are a few theories as to what he is after in Old Town. What evidence is there that your own idea is the most plausible? 

I didn't said, that my idea is the most plausible.

19 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

You can not just present a theory as fact and provide zero text support.

That theory (that Jaquen was willingly staying at Black Cells; that he was there, because he was looking there for something yet unknown to readers; that his trip to Harrenhal and to the Citadel was pre-planned) is based not on direct text, but on circumstantial information. So there's no text, that could be just quoted as an evidence in support of this theory. The evidence is "between the lines", not in the text.

Just because it's not there in the text, doesn't mean, that it's something, that never happened. Same thing, with what is in the text, but nevertheless never did happened. For example, based on this quote, Eddard Stark has betrayed his King - " "I betrayed the faith of my king and the trust of my friend, Robert," he shouted. "I swore to defend and protect his children, yet before his blood was cold, I plotted to depose and murder his son and seize the throne for myself. Let the High Septon and Baelor the Beloved and the Seven bear witness to the truth of what I say: Joffrey Baratheon is the one true heir to the Iron Throne, and by the grace of all the gods, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm." ", but we know, that he didn't.

So what are we supposed to believe - only in what is directly written in the books, or also additionally use logic and common sense, and read what is written between the lines? Personally I prefer out-of-the-box approach.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

29 minutes ago, Megorova said:

For example, it’s a common knowledge, that there are dungeons and secret tunnels in Red Keep. Even though Maegor executed workers, that build Targaryen castle, people still know about existence of those tunnels. That castle was there for nearly 300 years. And it’s not like all entries into those tunnels are guarded. So it’s likely, that over the years, at least someone, outsiders, had found several of those tunnels. Arya accidentally found one of them. Besides that exit, there’s the one that Varys has used to take Tyrion out of Red Keep (and prior 278 AC Varys also was an outsider, but now he knows all of them); another one in Chataya’s brothel; the one that Littlefinger used to take Ned to where Cat was. I remember those four, but, maybe, in the books some others were also mentioned or used by characters. I think that Faceless Men know about at least some of those tunnels. It’s a logical conclusion. Explanation:

It is not common knowledge. 

We know it is known at the Citadel because it is in the World book, which is written as an in world book. But at the time of AGOT that book has never been published in world and is in fact a gift for the King and not something which is being created for mass publication.  Besides that we know that the Rat catcher known as Blood and Cheese knew of them as he uses one in TP&TQ to kill Aegon II's son.  Arya stumbles upon one by pure accident. LF does not use one to take Ned to the Brothel to meet Cat because the brothel he takes her too is in fact a cheap establishment and not Chataya's. 

AGOT Eddard IV

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He crossed the outer yard, passed under a portcullis into the inner bailey, and was walking toward what he thought was the Tower of the Hand when Littlefinger appeared in front of him. "You're going the wrong way, Stark. Come with me."

Hesitantly, Ned followed. Littlefinger led him into a tower, down a stair, across a small sunken courtyard, and along a deserted corridor where empty suits of armor stood sentinel along the walls. They were relics of the Targaryens, black steel with dragon scales cresting their helms, now dusty and forgotten. "This is not the way to my chambers," Ned said.

"Did I say it was? I'm leading you to the dungeons to slit your throat and seal your corpse up behind a wall," Littlefinger replied, his voice dripping with sarcasm. "We have no time for this, Stark. Your wife awaits."

From there he takes him down some more steps and through a door and down the cliff ladder Sansa later uses to escape. This is not a secret tunnel it is just a little used exit from the castle in which there are old forgotten Targaryen suits of armour. But I can see why you might have misremembered it as a tunnel because we do see Targaryen relics in the RK is via these tunnels.

Varys is the one who introduces us via Tyrion to the tunnels. He shows Tyrion the one in the tower of the hand which leads to Chataya's and was almost certainly a recent addition for Tywin to access the brothel.  But one which likely utilised a pre existing tunnel. And we know he is using the older tunnels because Arya spots him and Illyrio there. And later he shows Tyrion the tunnel which he uses to sneak to see Shae. and then later still to access the tower of the hand and kill Tywin.  

Now the logical conclusion from all of this is not that those tunnels are common knowledge therefore the FM must know of them an entire continent away.

But rather why does Varys have such knowledge? Varys is set up as an outsider but subtle clues within the text indicate he is in fact a Targaryen of some description. Bastard?, forgotten son?, Blackfyre descendant?  The best explanation by far which I have seen in all the years I have been in the fandom is Veltigar's Brightfyre theory in which he proposes that Varys is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame Targaryen who was exiled to Lys in The Hedge Knight.  This theory is connected to the fAegon storyline. But certainly being a Targaryen descendant might have enabled him to retain some family knowledge of the tunnels and therefore set about exploring the RK upon infiltrating Aerys' court in order to find and exploit said tunnels.  Also though the Brightfyre theory proposes Illyrio is descended from House Blackfyre via a daughter of that house and this again gives him the possibility of knowing such tunnels exist which he can pass on to Varys for that purpose. 

The alternative that both men are unconnected to the Targaryens and are altruistically promoting the son of Rhaegar as King of Westeros is preposterous and ignores a wealth of evidence to the contrary.  

So no I do not think logically the FM must know about said tunnels nor that they are common knowledge. No other character's  ever mentions them or use them. The knowledge of them is restricted to Varys, who tells Tyrion, and Arya who only knows about one through self discovery. And  Maesters in the Citadel who write of them in a book which is yet to be published in world and will never be widely distributed. How does that Maester know? well because GRRM wanted to tell us about them a bit more and to use them in TP&TQ. Because he's probably going to have Varys use them again in TWOW just as he uses them to kill Kevan and Pycelle in ADWD, to assassinate someone; Myrcella. That's foreshadowed in TP&TQ when he has Blood and Cheese use the one into the royal nurseries to kill a Prince. 

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Though it’s logical, that someone like Faceless Men would have wanted to be prepared, just in case, if they will ever need to get inside Red Keep. So it’s likely, that in those 300 years, they did at least some research.

There is no evidence that the FM have any such knowledge or that they have been preparing for three hundred years to infiltrate the RK. Why is it logical that they would be researching the castle of a dynasty in a kingdom on another continent?  

Yes the IB may be linked to the FM. But equally don't assume they are. It may just be that the IB as the richest organisation in the known world can afford to hire a FM when and if someone reneges on a contract with them. They might just like supporting other local businesses. The Iron Coin instills wariness in the sailors on the ship Arya takes to Braavos. They each introduce themselves as a protective measure. The coin is clearly associated with the FM. And not the IB; or else they would assume she was an envoy of theirs like Tycho. Yes the fact it is Iron implies a possible link between the tow but don't jump to conclusions on one tiny piece of suggested evidence. Everything which we have seen on the FM via Arya suggests that they are a highly skilled organisation which delivers death for a price, though not necessarily a price in material wealth. Lets wait and see before we start using such words as obvious. Often in ASOIAF GRRM sets us up with a first impression which he later tears down.  

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Many people have used those tunnels. Varys’ little birds. Dozens of them. Shae. Obviously that Chataya and Alayaya also know about them (one of them is in their closet). Aegon IV used those tunnels to visit whores in the city. It’s fairly possible, that he was even bringing some of them into the castle (like Tyrion did). And whores are not a loyal kind of people. They would have gladly sold information about those tunnels, to whoever was willing to pay. Little birds also could be used as a way into the castle. Just kill one of them, take its face, impersonate it, mingle with other birds, and eventually they will go into the tunnels. Done. Or, based on Arya’s experience with FM in Braavos, what they are teaching to her, it’s possible for one of them to pretend to be a street urchin, and to get recruited by Varys’ people, as one of his new little birds.

Based on what Jaquen did, it seems that Faceless Men knew, that there is a tunnel in Red Keep, that leads from Black Cells into the Hand’s Tower, but they didn’t knew where exactly the entry point is. So to get access there, and time to do the search, Jaquen got himself imprisoned and sent into Black Cells. Deliberately.

Little birds whom he makes mute and then kills when they get to a certain size/age. Shae who was kept under strict control in the RK working as a maid and watched by Varys the whole time she was there. Who is also now dead.  Chataya knows about one tunnel which was built within her lifetime; probably, and which she knows was used by the Hand of the King. and later Varys presumably contacts her to arrange to use it to facilitate Tyrion's trysts. Chataya knows that that hand; probably Tywin, had it built in order to use her brothel. She does not automatically know that this tunnel is part of a larger network which runs through the entire of the RK and Maegor's Holdfast. Why on earth would anyone tell a whore such valuable information?   Where does it tell us that Aegon IV used them to sneak whores into the Red Keep ? You will have to provide a quote for that one. 

All those things are possible but they are nothing more than your own imagination. There is no evidence in the text to back any of it up. 

Based on what Jaquen did? and what was that? what has he done to evidence that they know of the tunnels and have decided to use them? Again this is just your imagination and is not evidenced by the text.

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

The other two people, who were also kept in Black Cells, were afraid of Jaquen. Why?

 We don't know why but it is probable that Jaquen had to remove his skin magic for some reason and they saw his face change. The author wants to convey to us that Jaquen is a mystical dude who has special abilities. so he tells us that he scares the crap out of two pyschopaths. Later when Arya begins her FM training we learn their ultimate skill the skin magic and it is unlike anything we have seen so it seems logical that this was what Rorge & Biter saw. Because to scare them two it had to be creepy as fuck. 

There is even logic behind why a FM might remove his skin magic face in the Black cells. To try to persuade the guard that you are in there by mistake. If you don't look like the guy that was brought in then why are you in there? 

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Based on their behavior, and because Jaquen didn’t took them with him, when he left Harrenhal, it seems, that they were not buddies, or acquaintances, or even knew each other, prior the three of them ended up in Black Cells. Based on Ned’s and Tyrion’s experience, it seems that all cells in those dungeons are solo-cells, i.e. all prisoners are kept separately, one per cell. While Arya and Co were traveling towards The Wall, and Jaquen with his buddies were kept chained in the wagon, he wasn’t doing anything. Nothing at all. Not something, that could have scared his “roommates”. He was chained, and there were people near him all the time. So if he tried to get free (and I’m sure that he could have freed himself even while he was in chains), someone would have seen it. But he had to keep his cover, so he wasn’t behaving out of his current character, and kept pretending that he’s just a mere prisoner. Though when they were attacked, and the wagon was burning, he needed time to free himself, but there was no time, so he asked for Arya’s help. If he wasn’t pressed for time, he could have freed himself even without her help.

So, if Jaquen and those two didn’t knew each other prior Black Cells, and if he haven’t done anything scary, while they were traveling together, then it’s a logical conclusion, that he did something that scared those two, while they were in Black Cells. Though how exactly could he have scared them, if all of them were kept in separate cells?

Nope non of them knew oneanother they were just cellmates. That happens in prisons. especially crowded ones. Nope Ned & Tyrion are nobility, and not just any nobility both are of the highest and most ancient Houses in the land and both have held the esteemed office of Hand of the King. They get their own cell. 

How could he have freed himself from chains? because he is a FM he can do literally anything? Have you been paying attention to the books? GRRM makes a firm point that everyone has bad luck sometimes, everyone is fallible, everyone can make mistakes. FM are not some super beings capable of achieving any feat put before them.  They're good, the best in the world but they are only human.

we are told the three of them were in the Black cells which are reserved for the most dangerous prisoners. They are low born and dangerous.

ACOK Arya I

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Yoren had taken grown men from the dungeons as well, thieves and poachers and rapers and the like. The worst were the three he'd found in the black cells who must have scared even him, because he kept them fettered hand and foot in the back of a wagon, and vowed they'd stay in irons all the way to the Wall.

ACOK Arya II

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The bald one opened his mouth and hissed like some immense white lizard. When Arya flinched back, startled, he opened his mouth wide and waggled his tongue at her, only it was more a stump than a tongue. "Stop that," she blurted.

"A man does not choose his companions in the black cells," the handsome one with the red-and-white hair said. Something about the way he talked reminded her of Syrio; it was the same, yet different too. "These two, they have no courtesy. A man must ask forgiveness. You are called Arry, is that not so?"

"Lumpyhead," said the noseless one. "Lumpyhead Lumpyface Stickboy. Have a care, Lorath, he'll hit you with his stick."

ACOK Arya IX

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Yoren found Jaqen in a black cell, the same as Rorge and Biter, she remembered. Jaqen did something horrible and Yoren knew, that's why he kept him in chains. If the Lorathi was a wizard, Rorge and Biter could be demons he called up from some hell, not men at all.

Here we have confirmation that the three of them came from the Black cells together Jaquen says it himself. Also Rorge thinks Jaquen is from Lorath so he has obviously told them a fake back story at some point. Arya believes he is Lorathi too And Lorath is very near to Braavos.

ACOK Arya II

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"A man must be ashamed of the company he keeps, Arry," the handsome one said. "This man has the honor to be Jaqen H'ghar, once of the Free City of Lorath. Would that he were home. This man's ill-bred companions in captivity are named Rorge"—he waved his tankard at the noseless man—"and Biter." Biter hissed at her again, displaying a mouthful of yellowed teeth filed into points. "A man must have some name, is that not so? Biter cannot speak and Biter cannot write, yet his teeth are very sharp, so a man calls him Biter and he smiles. Are you charmed?"

Arya backed away from the wagon. "No." They can't hurt me, she told herself, they're all chained up.

 Here he has introduced himself as Jaquen H'ghar of Lorath. And he has foreknowledge of Rorge's name and that Biter smiles at the name Biter, indicating that Jaquen has guessed correctly. The three of them have been in oneanothers company some time and Jaquen refers to them as his companions in the Black cells as well as in the wagon.  Yoren knows the men he takes from the Black cells are the most dangerous criminals which is why he keeps them chained and confined. He doesn't automatically know what each has done but can assume these are murderers and psychopaths given their placement in the black cells. Arya assumes he knows what each has done but she is an unreliable narrator.  She is both a child and has no knowledge of what Yoren might or might not be told of each man he takes for the watch. Never forget that all our POV's are sometimes unreliable and always consider who they have come to their own thoughts what knowledge they have etc. 

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

I think that they saw him going out of his cell. He was wandering all over those dungeons, looking for the entry into the secret passage. Could be that he even entered into their cells, to look there too. Just imagine their reaction, when their fellow-prisoner got out of his cell, broke into their cells, and started to feel up walls (looking for a stone that could be pushed into the wall, or feeling for a draft coming out of a hidden tunnel). Especially impressive that would have looked in the middle of the night, when one of the prisoners woke up, and saw that the door into his cell is open, and that there’s someone else near him in his cell, in the darkness, soundlessly crawling all over the cell’s walls.

They got scared of him, because, based on his behavior, him being able to leave his cell, they realized, that even though he can leave whenever he wants, he doesn’t leave, because he wants to be there. He’s exactly where he wants to be. And who does insane stuff like that? – Deliberately lets himself to be locked in Black Cells? Only someone very dangerous. That’s a logical conclusion.

OK here you have contradicted yourself. First you say that they were alone in their cells and did not have prior knowledge of one another. They you say that Rorge & Biter saw Jaquen leave his cell. And frankly what you have written here is your own fan fiction. Again there is zero evidence that any of this happened and it is about as far away from logical as you can get. Seriously you just made all that up. Based on nothing but your own illogical assumptions and ideas. 

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Why did he wanted to be locked in Black Cells? What’s in there, except prisoners and rats? In one of further books, GRRM gave to the readers information, that there’s a tunnel in Red Keep, which leads from the Black Cells to the Hand’s Tower. And what’s in common between the Hand’s Tower and Jaquen’s next destination? – Tywin Lannister. And because Tywin was the King’s Hand, and because GRRM didn’t gave any other information related to what could be in Black Cells, except that tunnel, it’s a logical assumption, that something that Tywin Lannister should have had, was the reason why Jaquen got into Black Cells, and then went to Riverlands. One of possible options.

Now, the evidence that he could have left whenever he wanted. Locks of those cells are easy to pick. Easy for someone like Faceless Man. After he got out of his cell, he could have either quietly killed one of the guards, took his face, impersonated him and went out, or he could have killed all the guards, and then left. Based on massacre that he caused at Harrenhal, he could have killed all the guards at Black Cells. Even old Barristan Selmy managed to get out of Red Keep, even though he was originally unarmed, and those that were sent to kill him, knew how he looked like. For someone who is a super ninja-fighter, that can instantly change his looks, it would have been even easier to get out. But he didn’t. Why? The only logical explanation is that he wanted to be there.

And because he didn’t stayed in Black Cells permanently, even though he could have if he wanted (by impersonating long-term one of the guards), it means that he left because he has already accomplished what he wanted. And because he didn’t left on his own, but instead let people from Night’s Watch to take him along with them, it means, that, most likely, they were going in the same direction as he needed to go. So either whatever he was looking at the Hand’s Tower wasn’t there, or whatever he found there was only part of what he was looking for, and the second part of his mission was supposed to take place somewhere in Riverlands.

I’m not claiming, that that’s exactly what and how happened, I’m just saying, that it’s one of possible options.     

There is a tunnel which runs to a central chamber from both the tower of the hand, many other places and the 4th level of the dungeons below the black cells. 

ASOS Tyion XI

Quote

"What part of the dungeons are these?" he asked.

"Maegor the Cruel decreed four levels of dungeons for his castle," Varys replied. "On the upper level, there are large cells where common criminals may be confined together. They have narrow windows set high in the walls. The second level has the smaller cells where highborn captives are held. They have no windows, but torches in the halls cast light through the bars. On the third level the cells are smaller and the doors are wood. The black cells, men call them. That was where you were kept, and Eddard Stark before you. But there is a level lower still. Once a man is taken down to the fourth level, he never sees the sun again, nor hears a human voice, nor breathes a breath free of agonizing pain. Maegor had the cells on the fourth level built for torment." They had reached the bottom of the steps. An unlighted door opened before them. "This is the fourth level. Give me your hand, my lord. It is safer to walk in darkness here. There are things you would not wish to see."

Tyrion hung back a moment. Varys had already betrayed him once. Who knew what game the eunuch was playing? And what better place to murder a man than down in the darkness, in a place that no one knew existed? His body might never be found.

Here the cells are even described and they are described in such a way that we know the three men must have shared one as the doors are wooden and therefore in order to have been companions in them as Jaquen tells Arya, they had to be in together. Tyrion and Ned whilst both deemed traitors at least get a solo cell due to their high born status.  So the tunnel is not in the black cells at all but in fact is in the fourth level below there. A place built for torture where Qyburn will later carry out his experiments. 

ASOS Tyrion XI

Quote

Jaime would not be afraid, he thought, before he remembered what Jaime had done to him. He took the eunuch by the hand and let himself be led through the black, following the soft scrape of leather on stone. Varys walked quickly, from time to time whispering, "Careful, there are three steps ahead," or, "The tunnel slopes downward here, my lord." I arrived here a King's Hand, riding through the gates at the head of my own sworn men, Tyrion reflected, and I leave like a rat scuttling through the dark, holding hands with a spider

A light appeared ahead of them, too dim to be daylight, and grew as they hurried toward it. After a while he could see it was an arched doorway, closed off by another iron gate. Varys produced a key. They stepped through into a small round chamber. Five other doors opened off the room, each barred in iron. There was an opening in the ceiling as well, and a series of rungs set in the wall below, leading upward. An ornate brazier stood to one side, fashioned in the shape of a dragon's head. The coals in the beast's yawning mouth had burnt down to embers, but they still glowed with a sullen orange light. Dim as it was, the light was welcome after the blackness of the tunnel.

The juncture was otherwise empty, but on the floor was a mosaic of a three-headed dragon wrought in red and black tiles. Something niggled at Tyrion for a moment. Then it came to him. This is the place Shae told me of, when Varys first led her to my bed. "We are below the Tower of the Hand."

 

Here they traverse the pathway from the dungeon through the tunnels and into the chamber. Note that there is a security door between this tunnel and the main chamber for which Varys has the key.  And it is from here that Tyrion accesses the Tower of the Hand. The Black cells is likely not the only way to access the tunnel into the tower of the hand. There is the tunnel Arya discovered in AGOT  from outside the castle without the need to be arrested and locked in a dungeon, that tunnel leads into the chamber with the dragon skulls which we know is connected to the other tunnels because it is where Arya spots Varys & Illyrio, coming up steps carved in a well in a pitch black room leading off the Dragon Skull cellar. 

There is no reason at all to conclude from the fact there is a tunnel from the dungeons that intercepts the chamber where it seems many tunnels interconnect that Jaquan deliberately got arrested to access the Tower of the Hand.  Especially not when we know of another tunnel directly from outside the castle which leads into the tunnel system.  Nothing at all indicates this is Jaquen's goal. And Tywin has not been hand for over a decade and a half.  

I'll come back to this as I have some stuff to do and your post is enormous and so there is a lot to address. 

[Megorova]

19 hours ago, Seams said:

Can't see at all how Ned Stark would be a hidden Targ

This first part is slightly irrelevant, but it shows a pattern -> In 132 AC Cregan Stark (born in 108, died between 157 and 209) has married with Alysanne Blackwood (born in 113, died in or after 136). They had four daughters. It's possible, that one of those daughters married back into Blackwood family, to her Blackwood cousin (Starks several times married with their cousins), so Melissa Blackwood (born in 156-160) possibly was Cregan's granddaughter. This explains the cause of the duel between Cregan Stark and Aegon's brother, Kingsguard Aemon the Dragonknight - Cregan wasn't pleased with King Aegon making his dranddaughter a mistress.

 

Melissa Blackwood was Aegon IV's mistress in 172-177. In those five years she gave birth to three of his children - Bloodraven, Mya and Gwenys.

Three generations after Cregan, his great-grandson (descendant from his third marriage, with his cousin, Lynarra Stark), Willam Stark (died in 226), has married with Melantha Blackwood.

If Mya or Gwenys married back into Blackwood family, then, based on the timing, one of them was mother of Melantha Blackwood.

Melantha was Ned's paternal great-grandmother.

If Melantha was granddaughter of Aegon IV (thru Mya or Gwenys), then Ned was 1/32 Targaryen.

If my theory is correct, then Ned had about the same amount of Targaryen blood as Brown Ben Plumm.

Ben is described as an aging man, but still fit. So he's approximately same age as Aerys II, or between Aerys' and Rhaegar's age. Between Aegon IV and Aerys II there was four generations (five to Rhaegar). So between Elaena Targaryen and Ben Plumm is also four-five generations.

If between Elaena and Ben there was four generations, in case if he is closer in age to Aerys than Rhaegar, then Ben is 1/16 Targaryen. But if he is closer in age to Rhaegar, and between him and his Targaryen ancestors was five generations, then he is 1/32 Targaryen. Same as Ned.

Brown Ben has enough Targaryen blood, to be recognized by dragons, as their kin. So Ned was also somewhere in that category - hidden Targ

 

I think that GRRM is using "patterns", that could be used by readers as clues. For example: mothers and daughters - Bellegere Otherys - Bellenora - Bellonara - Bellegere. So maybe there was this - Mariah Stark - Melissa Blackwood - Mya Rivers - Melantha Blackwood.

[anubis]

Well, he might not be as complex, but take a look around, you ingenuously posed the question "aren´t we thinking about the little details/supposed foreshadowing too much?" and what you got as an answer was more people thinking about the little details/supposed foreshadowing.

Conclusion: Martin´s got us by the balls.

[Megorova]

30 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

It is not common knowledge. 

"There had always been talk of secret passages within the Red Keep." - AFFC, Cersei I.

 

40 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

No other character's  ever mentions them or use them.

39 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Besides that we know that the Rat catcher known as Blood and Cheese knew of them as he uses one in TP&TQ to kill Aegon II's son.

"So as not to pass through any of the city gates, where they might be seen and remembered, Lord Larys led them out through some secret passage of Maegor the Cruel, of which only he had knowledge." - The Pincess and the Queen, written by maester Gyldayn.

" "How is it a brothel happens to have a secret entrance?" "The tunnel was dug for another King's Hand, whose honor would not allow him to enter such a house openly. Chataya has closely guarded the knowledge of its existence." "And yet you knew of it." "Little birds fly through many a dark tunnel." " - ACOK, Tyrion III.

Blood&Cheese, Larys Strong, Varys, Illyrio, Chataya, Littlefinger, Cersei, little birds.

That's a lot of no one.

51 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Why is it logical that they would be researching the castle of a dynasty in a kingdom on another continent?

As long as Targaryens had dragons, they remained a threat. Thus, in case if they ever tried to conquer and enslave people of Essos, Braavos included, Faceless Men were going to be prepared to deal with Targaryens on their own territory, while they were thinking, that they are safe behind the walls of the Red Keep.

[TheThreeEyedCow]

On 5/5/2019 at 3:54 PM, Megorova said:

I think that GRRM's writing is so complex, that majority of readers don't get even half of what is actually going on. Though, when he will give more information in next books, they will be able to go back, and with addition of that new information, will understand more.

 

Shiera Seastar is the 3EC. And GRRM will reveal why and how thru Bran's and Dany's chapters (because Shiera is also Quaithe, and eventually she will show her face to Dany, and will explain to her all whats and whys, though in typical for her roundabout manner).

Because Ned had to be brought to a weak and fevered condition, to have that dream about Lyanna. And because he had to be dying from that infected leg wound, for readers not to complain, that someone somehow didn't tried to save Ned from execution. The point is, is that he was going to die either way, from beheading or from sepsis. And his death was not only unavoidable, it was necessary. And to agree to Varys' conditions, Ned was supposed to be out of his mind. So that's why GRRM made Ned fight against KG and Jaime - to bring him into a needed state (weakened, fevered, dying).

We will get the full story either from Howland, or from his wife Jyanna, who could be Ashara Dayne, so both of them were near Lyanna, when she was dying, thus they know what exactly was promised.

Shiera, most likely, was there. She knew, what didn't worked last time, so this time she instructed Dany, what should be done, to hatch dragon eggs (she was smiling and whispering stars, great wings, ghosts in faded raiment of kings in AGOT, Dany IX. She saved Rhaego, and told Dany, what needs to be done, to hatch dragon eggs). She will eventully reveal to Dany, who she is, and how did she became Quaithe, what happened at Summerhall, etc.

The Children will tell it to Bran, after he will wake up next time, only to realise, that the weirwood seedpaste has grown out from his stomach thru his muscles and bones, and the tree is binding him to that cave, same as was done to Bloodraven. Maybe, that's when GRRM will share with readers, that it was Shiera who binded Bloodraven to the Weirwood. They are GRRM's parallels to wizard Merlin and water fairy Nimue.

He is GRRM's parallel to The Beast out of the earth, from the Book of Revelation. His endgame is to serve as fAegon's false prophet (with those Targaryen banners, that he was secretly gathering. Image of the Beast - "A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd." - ACOK, Dany IV).

Varys is the dragon/Satan, fAegon and Golden Company is Antichrist, or The Beast out of the sea (with one mortally wounded head that healed itself), Littlefinger is fAegon's false prophet, or The Beast out of the earth. He has dragon's voice, because his ancestor is Aegon IV, and he has lamb's horns, because his other ancestor is Falena Stokeworth (there's a lamb on their banner). In the end of the book he will burn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beast_(Revelation)

"The first beast comes "out of the sea" and is given authority and power by the dragon. This first beast is initially mentioned in Revelation 11:7 as coming out of the abyss. His appearance is described in detail in Revelation 13:1-10, and some of the mystery behind his appearance is revealed in Revelation 17:7-18.

The second beast comes "out of the earth" and directs all peoples of the earth to worship the first beast. The second beast is described in Revelation 13:11-18 and is also referred to as the false prophet.

The two beasts are aligned with the dragon in opposition to God. They persecute the "saints" and those who do "not worship the image of the beast [of the sea]" and influence the kings of the earth to gather for the battle of Armageddon.^[1] The two beasts are defeated by Christ and are thrown into the lake of fire mentioned in Revelation 19:18-20."

Three heads of the dragon is GRRM's parallel to the Holy Trinity.

• The Mother - Dany (The Woman clothed in the Sun);
• The Son - Rhaego. He's not dead. The Stallion that mounts the world, Khal of khals, that will unite all Dothraki, and all people will be his herd. Like Jesus in Revelation is King of kings and Lord of lords, and will guide an army of horsemen on white horses, and will unite all people of the world, and will become their great shepherd. Sword coming out of Jesus' mouth - fire (R'hllor's weapon) coming out of Rhaego's mouth. Rhaego is a crusader;
• The Holy Ghost - Jon (Agnus Dei, Lamb of God, slain but standing; the real Messiah, who will oppose Antichrist - mummer's dragon, fAegon).

In some of his other, Bible-themed books, GRRM's writing was simpler and more straightforward. Like in "Call him Moses", or "The Way of Cross and Dragon".

"a mind needs books as a sword needs a whetstone" - AGOT, Tyrion II.

Wow. Ok that's a lot to mull over. I'm acutely aware of something more biblical going on but I'd be a liar if I said I understood it. I'm eager to get my head around it though. 

So, do you think that his story will follow the same paths to the same conclusions; Is it all simply playing out the way it's meant to or do you think GRRM has some more modern twists on these themes?  

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

OK change of plan I have more time than I thought I was gonna have so I'll try and answer a bit more. 

So your assumption that Jaquen deliberately got himself arrested to access the black cells as the only way into the TotH is based on your assumption that the ToTH is the only place accessible via the Black cells. But that is not true. The Black cells tunnel goes to a multi door chamber. He could be seeking access to any part of the RK. And in addition the Tunnels as a whole are accessible from outside the RK with no need to be arrested.  There is additionally no evidence in the text that Jaquen was deliberately arrested at all and this seems to be entirely your own assumption based on your personal esteem for the FM. Who as I pointed out are as human and as fallible as anyone else.  So lets address the assumption that he thinks Tywin had something of interest. 

Firstly as I have said before Tywin vacated the TotH over 15 years earlier. So even if you are right and he was trying to access the Hands chambers it would be something of either Ned's or Jon Arryn's he was after. You are also assuming that he can snap his fingers and leave his cell. He can't. He has to have something with which to pick a lock. and if he was arrested and thrown into the black cells one can assume his captors searched his person and removed any such items. After all, this is logical prison guard practice. Especially for such dangerous prisoners as those kept in the black cells. 

right I really do need to go now. I'm off to watch tonights ep of GOt to see what abomination D&D have for us. 

[Clegane'sPup]

2 hours ago, anubis said:

Conclusion: Martin´s got us by the balls.

oye, dunna be sexist --- political correctness --- balls and tits.

[Megorova]

17 hours ago, TheThreeEyedCow said:

So, do you think that his story will follow the same paths to the same conclusions; Is it all simply playing out the way it's meant to or do you think GRRM has some more modern twists on these themes?  

Just because he is using certain Biblical elements, doesn't mean, that he will write everything exactly how it happened in the Bible.

For example, seems that Meereen is GRRM's parallel to Exodus. Pharaoh refused to free Jewish slaves, so thru Moses God sent on Egypt 10 plagues, including locusts, frogs, various diseases, and death of every firstborn Egyptian son; and then for 40 years they were wandering in the wilderness, eating quail and manna.

Instead of all that, what we have in ADWD is - pale mare, poisoned locusts, Quentyn Martell aka Frog, Sons of the Harpy, etc. But it's unlikely, that Dany will waste 40 years of her time on aimless exploration of Slavers Bay.

17 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

He has to have something with which to pick a lock. and if he was arrested and thrown into the black cells one can assume his captors searched his person and removed any such items.

He had fake hair, and even fake face. While something as small as a picklock could be hidden even in a mouth.

Many years ago I was reading series of books about Doc Savage, and there was a scene, in which he took of his hair, which turned out to be some sort of cap, and not a real hair, and under that cap he was hiding picklocks and other items. Before that in that book, and in all previous books about him, there was zero indications, that his hair is fake, and that he has some sort of cache on his head.

And Jaqen had long hair - a lot of place to hide things. And it's not like his captors were smart enough to search thru his hair.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 5/4/2019 at 5:23 PM, bazookahead said:

First of all I love this forum and do not meant to insult or piss anyone off. This forum was the source that made me take the books more seriously than the show (how I was introduced to the story) and sent me down a spiraling rabbit hole. I have been extremely impressed with the creativity and critical thinking users on this site have exercised on ASolaF. I preface my question because again, my aim is not to insult or belittle anyone, it is sincerely from a point of admiration of your knowledge for the story.

My question is how much faith, or how much evidence, do you have that GRRM is writing a story as complex as this site gives it credit for? I for one do not believe he is participating in the same excruciatingly complex story that this forum gives him credit for. Taking nothing away from GRRM, I still love the characters, the world-building, and most of all realism he inserted into the fantasy genre, but my fear is that he never expected to explain the story and characters to the level that this forum expects.

The best example I can use is the introduction of Jaqen. I have read numerous theories on this site about the true explanation of his origin, being locked up in the cells of king's landing. The theories are amazing and tie in a complex web or foresight and planning by the author. There are a number of these theories on characters and their motivations, and my question is simply how confident are you that GRMM has planned out his story to explain this level of detail? 

Unfortunately, I am of the opinion that GRRM simply placed Jaqen in the cells as a means to bridge Arya to the faceless men. I don't believe he had an elaborate scheme why he was there (which a discerning reader would ask, if probing into the story far enough - how is a faceless man caught up in the King's Landing justice system), yet, I've rarely come across a serious book reader who did not have a position on what the backstory and motivation is.

I'm also of the opinion that GRRM is aware of this complex explanation for his story and that is what has stymied him over the past years. I believe his eagerness and ability to write "backwards" is an attempt to plant the evidence for what he is trying to accomplish, that being a story with a volume of webs that many readers are expecting to tie-in together and make sense.

Any ways, I hope I am wrong but it just doesn't seem possible for him to tie everything together in 2 books and I, not as intelligent a reader as most on this site, haven't been able to identify the evidence that GRRM not only planted the seeds, but has the ability to grow the garden as beautiful as this site has anticipated.

GREAT question. I wish I knew the answer. As for the faceless man who paid Arya's debt to Red Rhaloo, here's what I think. 

And although I was convinced that the George has the Blackfyre subplot worked out before Game was published, @Ran has presented convincing evidence that it was not worked out until at least sometime after Game was published. My gues is that the George developed it as he wrote Clash. But here, you can see how the reader can interpret certain imagery as unintended foreshadowing. 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 5/4/2019 at 6:59 PM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

George followed the rules and entered military service when some young men escaped the draft.

He didn't enter military service. He recounts that his local draft board decided that being labelled a coward would be sufficient punishment for him.

[TheThreeEyedCow]

4 hours ago, Megorova said:

Just because he is using certain Biblical elements, doesn't mean, that he will write everything exactly how it happened in the Bible.

For example, seems that Meereen is GRRM's parallel to Exodus. Pharaoh refused to free Jewish slaves, so thru Moses God sent on Egypt 10 plagues, including locusts, frogs, various diseases, and death of every firstborn Egyptian son; and then for 40 years they were wandering in the wilderness, eating quail and manna.

Instead of all that, what we have in ADWD is - pale mare, poisoned locusts, Quentyn Martell aka Frog, Sons of the Harpy, etc. But it's unlikely, that Dany will waste 40 years of her time on aimless exploration of Slavers Bay.

 

Ah ok. I get it. It does make a lot of sense. I suppose by this point in time, story tellers have revisited those themes over and over in different ways with different backdrops. Why would George be any different. Thanks for sharing that.

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

GRRM said that he came up with a 'twist' involving a long-time character that he had never considered. is When Winds of Winter comes out, there will be people on this board swearing up and down that whatever the twist happens to be was actually foreshadowed all the way back in A Game of Thrones and will pull out quote after quote to 'prove' it.

[Lost Melnibonean]

58 minutes ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:

GRRM said that he came up with a 'twist' involving a long-time character that he had never considered. is When Winds of Winter comes out, there will be people on this board swearing up and down that whatever the twist happens to be was actually foreshadowed all the way back in A Game of Thrones and will pull out quote after quote to 'prove' it.

Unless he tells us whom the twist involved, how will we know? 

[Lady Anna]

I agree with OP. This is a nice thread. I think this is also relative to the readers. Casual readers - who probably only read each book once and don't have a strong investment in the series - would have their minds blown by some of the things we take on this forum as basic info (but that are, without a doubt, a sign of this series' complexity). On the other hand, to die-hard fans and this forum, there's always that need to search for more things, construct more complex theories, and connect unrelated things, not helped by the fact there's long gaps between the books. But this kind of thing is just putting a huge amount of unrealistic expectations on the author. Maybe the most ''obvious'' things to us here is already the extent of this series' complexity, which is already /huge/.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:

said that he came up with a 'twist'

that he had never considered.

there will be people on this board swearing up and down that whatever the twist happens to be was actually foreshadowed all the way back in A Game of Thrones and will pull out quote after quote to 'prove' it.

The thing is, maybe, he think, that he came up with this twist just now, and have never even thought about something like that before, but actually that idea was in his head all along. He wasn't consciously aware of it, but his subconsciousness made him, unknowingly to him, to add in the books all those elements, that readers will later see as an evidence of earlier existence of that idea. Human mind is complicated. People are not always aware of their exact motives and reasons, of why they are doing something this or that way.

[White Ravens]

On 5/4/2019 at 2:23 PM, bazookahead said:

First of all I love this forum and do not meant to insult or piss anyone off. This forum was the source that made me take the books more seriously than the show (how I was introduced to the story) and sent me down a spiraling rabbit hole. I have been extremely impressed with the creativity and critical thinking users on this site have exercised on ASolaF. I preface my question because again, my aim is not to insult or belittle anyone, it is sincerely from a point of admiration of your knowledge for the story.

My question is how much faith, or how much evidence, do you have that GRRM is writing a story as complex as this site gives it credit for? I for one do not believe he is participating in the same excruciatingly complex story that this forum gives him credit for. Taking nothing away from GRRM, I still love the characters, the world-building, and most of all realism he inserted into the fantasy genre, but my fear is that he never expected to explain the story and characters to the level that this forum expects.

The best example I can use is the introduction of Jaqen. I have read numerous theories on this site about the true explanation of his origin, being locked up in the cells of king's landing. The theories are amazing and tie in a complex web or foresight and planning by the author. There are a number of these theories on characters and their motivations, and my question is simply how confident are you that GRMM has planned out his story to explain this level of detail? 

Unfortunately, I am of the opinion that GRRM simply placed Jaqen in the cells as a means to bridge Arya to the faceless men. I don't believe he had an elaborate scheme why he was there (which a discerning reader would ask, if probing into the story far enough - how is a faceless man caught up in the King's Landing justice system), yet, I've rarely come across a serious book reader who did not have a position on what the backstory and motivation is.

I'm also of the opinion that GRRM is aware of this complex explanation for his story and that is what has stymied him over the past years. I believe his eagerness and ability to write "backwards" is an attempt to plant the evidence for what he is trying to accomplish, that being a story with a volume of webs that many readers are expecting to tie-in together and make sense.

Any ways, I hope I am wrong but it just doesn't seem possible for him to tie everything together in 2 books and I, not as intelligent a reader as most on this site, haven't been able to identify the evidence that GRRM not only planted the seeds, but has the ability to grow the garden as beautiful as this site has anticipated.

I agree with the bolded bit above.

His approach to writing is quite organic and he freely allows himself to listen to the story and the characters as they evolve.  He explains it in this well-known quote:

Quote

“I think there are two types of writers, the architects and the gardeners. The architects plan everything ahead of time, like an architect building a house. They know how many rooms are going to be in the house, what kind of roof they're going to have, where the wires are going to run, what kind of plumbing there's going to be. They have the whole thing designed and blueprinted out before they even nail the first board up. The gardeners dig a hole, drop in a seed and water it. They kind of know what seed it is, they know if planted a fantasy seed or mystery seed or whatever. But as the plant comes up and they water it, they don't know how many branches it's going to have, they find out as it grows. And I'm much more a gardener than an architect.”

To me this implies that the further along in the story that the reader gets the less likely they will find clues and foreshadowing in the earlier volumes because when George was writing those earlier chapters he hadn't even conceived of the much of the plot and characters that exist later on.

Observe this quote where GRRM was talking about the delays caused by the "Meereenese Knot":

Quote

Now I can explain things. It was a confluence of many, many factors: lets start with the offer from Xaro to give Dany ships, the refusal of which then leads to Qarth's declaration of war. Then there's the marriage of Daenerys to pacify the city. Then there's the arrival of the Yunkish army at the gates of Meereen, there's the order of arrival of various people going her way (Tyrion, Quentyn, Victarion, Aegon, Marwyn, etc.), and then there's Daario, this dangerous sellsword and the question of whether Dany really wants him or not, there's hte plague, there's Drogon's return to Meereen...

All of these things were balls I had thrown up into the air, and they're all linked and chronologically entwined. The return of Drogon to the city was something I explored as happening at different times. For example, I wrote three different versions of Quentyn's arrival at Meereen: one where he arrived long before Dany's marriage, one where he arrived much later, and one where he arrived just the day before the marriage (which is how it ended up being in the novel). And I had to write all three versions to be able to compare and see how these different arrival points affected the stories of the other characters. Including the story of a character who actually hasn't arrived yet.

The story has become quite complex as it has evolved and it covers characters that are spread out over two continents.  GRRM can't change the books that have been published but it looks like part of why it takes so long to write each of the later books is that his organic approach causes him to realize that as he adds new material in the manuscript he is currently working on it often changes things in the other POV chapters and then he has to labour at making everything match up again.  It sounds like a process that is both rewarding and frustrating but I'm  glad that he puts in the time.  Somewhere I read that he said that the story will begin to converge on fewer locations in the upcoming volumes and that as he needs fewer POVs to tell the story we will begin to see more major characters killed off. 

I can't wait!

[Seams]

1 hour ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:

GRRM said that he came up with a 'twist' involving a long-time character that he had never considered. is When Winds of Winter comes out, there will be people on this board swearing up and down that whatever the twist happens to be was actually foreshadowed all the way back in A Game of Thrones and will pull out quote after quote to 'prove' it.

You can pick something such as Renly's Rainbow Guard and say, "This was not mentioned until Clash, therefore GRRM didn't think of it until he had finished the first book." Maybe that's a fair statement. Or I could point out that rainbows were an important symbol in the first book (particularly in discussions of Catelyn's religious faith) and the Kingsguard had been described earlier. Maybe the author planned it in advance, or maybe the author thought of a twist - combining the rainbow symbolism with a new Kingsguard. He didn't change the meaning of rainbows, he built on a symbol for which the groundwork had already been put in place.

I suspect there may be something similar underpinning the (Bittersteel) Blackfyre / (Bloodraven) Targaryen enmity. GRRM has said that the ending of the series will be bittersweet. I didn't think much of it when I heard that quote in an interview: I assumed he was just telling readers / viewers to prepare for some upbeat developments and some hard losses as the series comes to a close. On my next re-read, however, I started noticing the lemon and sour references as well as the honey and sweet references. Even though he had not worked out the details of the Bittersteel character, I suspect he chose that name for the legendary wizard because he was already working out the bitter / sweet motif in a hundred small ways throughout the book.

So you are right: people on this board may very well find foreshadowing in quote after quote, even for a "new" twist. That's the way the author constructed the books.

[Platypus Rex]

In my humble opinion, GRRM is as complex as I think he is.  No more.  No less.  I could be wrong, though.  But why second-guess myself?

[Lion of the West]

I think that GRRM is very good, perhaps and possibly the best living fantasy author of this day, but I don't think that even he can, as a real person, take on the hype that's building. No living person can. In a way I think that our forum, myself included, is like Robert Baratheon and Lyanna. The real deal can never really win over an imagined perfect, and I should know since I've got my cold shower already.