Is Young Griffs invasion filler?

[Tyrion1991]

In Crows and Dragons there is a definite shift towards the coming Targaryen invasion. Two of the great houses conspire to ally with Dany. Indeed if you read these chapters they act as if Dany is already a part of the Westeros storyline.

However Dany is clearly not setup to move towards Westeros. She’s locked in the struggles of Slavers Bay and has her whole deal with the Dothraki. She’s not getting to Westeros anytime soon. I would be amazed if she was there before mid ADOS. Even if Dany doesn’t conquer Essos and just rides off into the sunset towards Westeros. Too many plot lines, too many characters and too many meetings. GRRM can’t have failed to notice this issue. He clearly wants to pivot the plot towards Danys invasion; but can’t. Perhaps he simply wishes to add gravitas to it.

So, he creates another Targaryen claimant who gets there before Dany. This prevents Cersei tapping her foot waiting for Daenerys to show up for a whole book in TWOW. GRRM could have just done Eurons invasion or a Tyrell war but he wants to pivot the story so he had to make it about the Targaryens. 

I don’t think Aegon has been set up to take Kings Landing and displace the Lannister’s in the south. Not that you couldn’t make a story out of that. But he won’t for the same reason Stannis didn’t win the Blackwater. He would want to keep the Stark vs Lannister dimension and that goes away if Aegon wins.

[chrisdaw]

No. Aegon takes KL and is the dominant power in Westeros when Dany arrives and the second dance is between him and Dany and that was always GRRM's intention.

[Plain, Simple Tailor]

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

In Crows and Dragons there is a definite shift towards the coming Targaryen invasion. Two of the great houses conspire to ally with Dany. Indeed if you read these chapters they act as if Dany is already a part of the Westeros storyline.

However Dany is clearly not setup to move towards Westeros. She’s locked in the struggles of Slavers Bay and has her whole deal with the Dothraki. She’s not getting to Westeros anytime soon. I would be amazed if she was there before mid ADOS. Even if Dany doesn’t conquer Essos and just rides off into the sunset towards Westeros. Too many plot lines, too many characters and too many meetings. GRRM can’t have failed to notice this issue. He clearly wants to pivot the plot towards Danys invasion; but can’t. Perhaps he simply wishes to add gravitas to it.

So, he creates another Targaryen claimant who gets there before Dany. This prevents Cersei tapping her foot waiting for Daenerys to show up for a whole book in TWOW. GRRM could have just done Eurons invasion or a Tyrell war but he wants to pivot the story so he had to make it about the Targaryens. 

I don’t think Aegon has been set up to take Kings Landing and displace the Lannister’s in the south. Not that you couldn’t make a story out of that. But he won’t for the same reason Stannis didn’t win the Blackwater. He would want to keep the Stark vs Lannister dimension and that goes away if Aegon wins.

Possibly? 

Aegon's plot is just so massive, I don't know how it will be dealt with before the Long Night. 

A Dream of Spring is most likely going to end up being two books, one about Daenerys coming to Westeros and going against Aegon, and then one about the Long Night and then a Scouring of the Shire-esque wrap up where Cersei is dealt with and the Game of Thrones is concluded. 

I wonder what Part 1 will be called? Something about the Blackfyres, probably. 

[The Sleeper]

Nope, he has been set up since Clash to steal Dany's thunder. Remember the mummer's dragon. After all, Dance was supposed to have been the second volume in a trilogy. 

Martin has been setting up controversy of Dany's raison d' etre of invading Westeros. Finding a Targaryen with his ass on the Throne and with a better claim than her, strips her of any legitimacy. So, Aegon is supposed to do at least that. 

[Pontius Pilate]

2 hours ago, Texas Hold Em said:

He will fill the void that opened with the death of Jon Snow. 

There it is.  We may never get another chapter from Jon's view.  

[Lord Vance II]

No, Aegon VI is for real.

When he was first introduced, I could see how he could've turned into a filler or a plot device, but his actions since Volantis are too big. I don't remember who in the book said it (maybe Connington?), but capturing Storms End will make his invasion a full-blown situation, and the preview gives every indication he succeeds. Cersei doesn't even know what's really happening. 

I 100% agree that Aegon will change his mind about paving the way for Dany and resist her. I think tales of her Targ Madness (which I think will fully manifest before long) will reach Westeros and he's going to look around and realize he rather likes being king. I have no idea how he would polish off the Lannisters, but I think houses that are sick of their BS will support Aegon just to have an alternative. Nor do I know how he would stop Dany and 3 dragons. 

Honestly, I don't think GRRM has time for filler. Even if Aegon VI isn't what he could be, I'm sure it's not pointless filler. And yes, I think Aegon is legitimate mainly just because I want him to be, plus him being fake is too easy. 

[Skahaz mo Kandaq]

Aegon will deliver what Illyrio Mopatis wanted all along.  Essos and Westeros under Targaryen rule.  Which is what would have happened had the children of Khal Drogo and Queen Daenerys lived.  I don't think Daenerys has that much interest in going to Westeros now or she would have done it already before she loses more men to the slave masters.  Aegon will rule the pitiful wreckage of Westeros while Daenerys continues her fight to free the slaves in Essos.  A new Empire of the Dawn will rise in the east as soon as the darkness gives way to the dawn.  I don't think there's room for Jon in the south.  He will stay in the north even if R+L turns out true.  He's the stone beast in the prophecy and like Lady Stoneheart he will take the road to revenge against the people who hurt his pack.  It's a tragic ending for him but the pack will be together in the end.  Fire brings the light but shadow fire is darkness.  Jon will come back very dark from death like Catelyn.  He will become Lord Stoneheart and lusts for revenge.  The kingdom will be broken. 

[chrisdaw]

It is very plainly flagged in the text out how Aegon takes KL. The Tyrell host in the field gets run over by Aegon's elephants. In KL Mace attacks the Faith over Marge and they fight back, city delves into chaos, the gutters run red as the two factions fight door to door. Some friends in the reach happens somewhere. Varys paves the way, Aegon shows up in KL to save the day, his force subdues the Tyrells and the Faith throw all in with him, cloth dragon cheering crowd, the city is his.

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

It is very plainly flagged in the text out how Aegon takes KL. The Tyrell host in the field gets run over by Aegon's elephants. In KL Mace attacks the Faith over Marge and they fight back, city delves into chaos, the gutters run red as the two factions fight door to door. Some friends in the reach happens somewhere. Varys paves the way, Aegon shows up in KL to save the day, his force subdues the Tyrells and the Faith throw all in with him, cloth dragon cheering crowd, the city is his.

If there is this much violence in the city, then rather few people will cheer Aegon.

It is much more likely that basically everybody defects to his side. Him actually taking Storm's End and declaring himself will look like a miracle to pretty much everybody in Westeros. There are many Targaryen loyalists left and many more people loathing the Lannisters and the continuous war who will see this basically a sign of gods that peace and prosperity will now come back to the Seven Kingdoms.

The deciding factor will be the Tyrell army fighting against the Golden Company, of course, but considering that most Targaryen loyalists seem to live in the Reach and Mathis Rowan is likely already fighting in team Aegon by that point, it is not that far of a stretch that half or more of the Tyrell army will refuse to fight against their rightful king or defect to his side.

The situation in KL is far too complex to predict the details, but Varys will most definitely have a plan to ensure that the gates will be opened and the city fall to Aegon bloodlessly.

The easiest way to end all that would be to finally publicly declare Cersei's children bastards born of adultery. If that were done by the Faith Mace and his allies would have simply no king or queen left in whose names they could fight.

[chrisdaw]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If there is this much violence in the city, then rather few people will cheer Aegon.

No the fighting in the street will be between the Tyrells and Faith as GRRM has Kevan bluntly think and stay Mace's hand. Kevan dead, no-one to stop Mace from being Mace (or worse Cersei to encourage him), Tyrells and the Faith make the gutters run red, Aegon's force arrives and ends it. He becomes the hero who ended the bloodshed. It is what Varys is intending, and he will succeed.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

No the fighting in the street will be between the Tyrells and Faith as GRRM has Kevan bluntly think and stay Mace's hand. Kevan dead, no-one to stop Mace from being Mace (or worse Cersei to encourage him), Tyrells and the Faith make the gutters run red, Aegon's force arrives and ends it. He becomes the hero who ended the bloodshed. It is what Varys is intending, and he will succeed.

That depends on a lot of factors. Margaery is no longer in the Faith's claws. Mace can refuse to return her for the trial and have King Tommen declare her innocence - as Tarly and Mace suggested. The Faith is likely going to fret about that but they cannot really do anything about that considering the amount of men Mace has in the city.

And with things moving as fast as they do Cersei trial-by-combat is long before Margaery's trial. We don't know what's going to happen there.

Varys intended to drive a wedge between the Tyrells and the Lannister and, more importantly, to prevent any lasting reconciliation between the Faith and King Tommen. That's the more severe issue. Kevan and the High Septon had a working relationship. They jointly pushed Cersei into the walk of shame to destroy her. That was as much Kevan's doing as the High Septon's. With Kevan around the Faith may have stuck with Tommen. With him gone, the Faith is likely going to espouse Aegon as the rightful king long before Aegon even gets to KL.

This could certainly lead to violence, of course, but I don't think the Faith is going to start it. 

[Lord Vance II]

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The situation in KL is far too complex to predict the details, but Varys will most definitely have a plan to ensure that the gates will be opened and the city fall to Aegon bloodlessly.

 

7 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

He becomes the hero who ended the bloodshed. It is what Varys is intending, and he will succeed.

If Varys has the ability to make either of these outcomes happen, why would he want more violence? He loves to talk about how he's a friend of the little people. If Aegon wants to show he is different and offering something worthwhile to the people lords of Westeros, using the same old playbook probably isn't the way to go. I agree that more supporters would be drawn to the fact he's not a Lannister than out of any loyalty to the Targaryans. 

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Lord Vance II said:

If Varys has the ability to make either of these outcomes happen, why would he want more violence? He loves to talk about how he's a friend of the little people. If Aegon wants to show he is different and offering something worthwhile to the people lords of Westeros, using the same old playbook probably isn't the way to go. I agree that more supporters would be drawn to the fact he's not a Lannister than out of any loyalty to the Targaryans. 

But there are tons of Targaryen loyalists basically everywhere. George has build them up since AGoT and ACoK. And they are strongest in the Reach and the Riverlands and, of course, in Dorne. Add all the people who are despised about the Red Wedding and Lannister ambition in general - which are much more - and you get an inclination how quickly Aegon is going to succeed.

Motives why to back him will differ, of course, but he will basically become the hope for pretty much everyone. Some will use him as a rallying point to bring down Cersei and the Lannisters, others will declare for him to have legitimacy and backing for their brutal cleansing of the Riverlands (many of the anti-Frey lords in the Riverlands will likely take that route), others still will honestly believe he is the rightful king, others, who were always secret Targaryen loyalists will back him because it is the right thing to do. But the largest percentage of people will simply see him as a sign that the good old times are coming back. The Targaryens are the true kings of Westeros, the kings who made the Seven Kingdoms one, the kings who built the streets, curbed the arbitrary powers of the lords, the kings who protected the smallfolk, etc. That is going to be the ticket that carries Aegon up the Iron Throne. We see this in ACoK with the old Riverlander idealizing Aerys II, we see it with the tale about the dragon from the egg devouring the presumptuous lions, we see it with the whores of White Harbor discussing Targaryen children and wanting to believe little Aegon did not die, etc,

[Karneol]

11 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

This prevents Cersei tapping her foot waiting for Daenerys to show up for a whole book in TWOW.

I don't see Cersei preparing for Dany even if she rules the Seven Kingdoms and there is clear wird of a big army coming from Essos. She basically ignores everything  three miles east from the Westerosi coast

Quote

He smiled sympathetically. "As you wish. There is talk that the Archon of Tyrosh has offered terms to Lys, to end their present trade war. It had been rumored that Myr was about to enter the war on the Tyroshi side, but without the Golden Company the Myrish did not believe they . . ."

"What the Myrish believe does not concern me." The Free Cities were always fighting one another. Their endless betrayals and alliances meant little and less to Westeros. "Do you have any news of more import?"

 

Quote

Your Grace," Pycelle said in a quavering voice, "this will cause more trouble than you know, I fear. The Iron Bank . . ."

". . . remains on Braavos, far across the sea. They shall have their gold, maester. A Lannister pays his debts."

She won't take Aegon seriously like the Tyrells. Because in opposite to the Tyrells she doesn't take anything serious save for her prophecy.

12 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

GRRM could have just done Eurons invasion or a Tyrell war but he wants to pivot the story so he had to make it about the Targaryens. 

GRRM will do these events but to distract the Tyrells because Cersei can distract herself.

[Lord Varys]

23 minutes ago, Karneol said:

I don't see Cersei preparing for Dany even if she rules the Seven Kingdoms and there is clear wird of a big army coming from Essos. She basically ignores everything  three miles east from the Westerosi coast

She won't take Aegon seriously like the Tyrells. Because in opposite to the Tyrells she doesn't take anything serious save for her prophecy.

GRRM will do these events but to distract the Tyrells because Cersei can distract herself.

Cersei and Euron will hook up in the books eventually and they might become a really great threat late in the game, but they are never going to become an enemy at KL Dany has to deal with when she arrives. This will be Aegon.

On Aegon and his people Dany can likely eventually count during the war against the Others (assuming she doesn't crush them before that starts). There might be bad blood between them but they should be able to work together for the common good (i.e. defeating the Others). But Euron and Cersei will never see beyond their own petty needs. They could become a real issue sort of in the wake of the Others, building up their strength while everybody else focuses on the Others. 

[The Commentator]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei and Euron will hook up in the books eventually and they might become a really great threat late in the game, but they are never going to become an enemy at KL Dany has to deal with when she arrives. This will be Aegon.

On Aegon and his people Dany can likely eventually count during the war against the Others (assuming she doesn't crush them before that starts). There might be bad blood between them but they should be able to work together for the common good (i.e. defeating the Others). But Euron and Cersei will never see beyond their own petty needs. They could become a real issue sort of in the wake of the Others, building up their strength while everybody else focuses on the Others. 

I don’t think it plays out this way, Lord Eunuch.  The troublemakers like the Lannister’s and Greyjoy’s will need to be the resolved before the war with the Others can begin.  The show wanted to keep NCW and Lena Headey on the payroll and thus created stories to keep them alive.  

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

I don’t think it plays out this way, Lord Eunuch.  The troublemakers like the Lannister’s and Greyjoy’s will need to be the resolved before the war with the Others can begin.  The show wanted to keep NCW and Lena Headey on the payroll and thus created stories to keep them alive.  

Oh, sure, I expect Euron to get more than just a bloody nose, so to speak. He has to put into his place, the power he will have acquired up to this point has to be broken. But there is no reason to assume that this has to result in his and Cersei's demise. They could get away - after all, Euron has a lot of ships - to lick their wounds and rebuild some of their strength while the good guys actually deal with the true enemy.

And I certainly could see Littlefinger doing something similar. I expect Sansa or events around his plans for Sansa to get him into a position where his mask slips and his power starts to crumble. But he is such a smart guy that I cannot see him having not some sort of exit strategy when things turn from bad to worse.

And he is basically the embodiment of the character who would actually the threat of the Others to strengthen his own position and continue to exploit and mess with others. He couldn't stop.

But, sure, there is also a chance that the some of the core players die before or during the War for the Dawn. 

[LyaTarg]

9 hours ago, Centurion Piso said:

There it is.  We may never get another chapter from Jon's view.  

You reckon Jon's death was permanent? So what of his parentage? It'll be unanswered forever? 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Aegon is not filler. I think he is the real deal to begin with. And I know people are set on this fight between him and Dany, but I don't see it. If he was so hellbent on dragons, he would not have been as easily swayed to go to Westeros.

GRRM has written Tyrion has being the person who has met Jon Snow, has met Aegon and now he is outside the walls of Meereen and the time will come when he meets Dany as well. He will be the only person alive (as far as we know) who will have met the two boys who are allegedly Rhaegar's sons and the girl who is his sister. 

That's something that seems to be wholly disregarded/dismissed for some reason, that the writer has placed Tyrion in a position where he will be able to start connecting all these dots. And he will have the right people around to be able to that.

I'm fairly certain Aegon dies, but I think he dies fighting during the Long Night.  

15 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

So, he creates another Targaryen claimant who gets there before Dany. This prevents Cersei tapping her foot waiting for Daenerys to show up for a whole book in TWOW. GRRM could have just done Eurons invasion or a Tyrell war but he wants to pivot the story so he had to make it about the Targaryens. 

I think he had plans for Aegon very early on. Varys even hints at it in Tyrion's first clash chapter when he talks about the comet. 

"In the streets, they call it the Red Messenger," Varys said. "They say it comes as a herald before a king, to warn of fire and blood to follow." (Tyrion I, ACoK 3)

[Tyrion1991]

That could also be referring to Dany.