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Tyrion1991

Is Young Griffs invasion filler?

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19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Tristan Rivers believes the Golden Company was supposed to join Viserys III and his Dothraki - just as they later believe they were supposed to join Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons (in addition to Aegon).

If the Golden Company were specifically for Aegon then one should have expected that Viserys III would have gone to Westeros only with his Dothraki whereas Aegon and the Golden Company would come later to restore order after the civil war and Viserys III's invasion had only created chaos.

But this was apparently never the plan.

Let me give my theory more details:

We know that Varys, Illyrio and mostly Jon hide the boy as safe as possible and only reveal his identity if it's necessary: There's a big fuss about that in both of Connington's chapters.

One the other side we have Viserys who  makes no big deal about his last name. 

Viserys is watched by Baratheon spies and is wished dead by most of Roberts loyalists. Meanwhile Aegon doesn't have that kind of pressure, he has never to fear for his life.

My idea is that Varys and Illyrio used Viserys as a red herring for Robert. They would  follow him and don't look out for other Targaryen/ Blackfyre claimants.

Of course they coudn't reveal Griffins true name to the golden company: Varys knows how easy people talk and how easy other people listen.

The solution is to write Viserys name instead of Aegon's and when the time comes replace Vis name with Aegons or don't pay the money

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I think Viserys needed to be kept alive to "vouch" for Aegon, that he is indeed real. After all, people of Westeros would be really suspicious if this Aegon is real since there would be no concrete way to prove it. But if Viserys, the last living child of King Aerys was to say that this Aegon is indeed son of Rheagar, then people would accept it as truth as well. I have no idea why would Viserys ever do that since he wanted to be the king.

Following that, there could be war between Viserys and Aegon - Viserys is the son of the former king, so he is the heir and rightful king but Rhaegar was the crown prince, so others would support Aegon as an heir.

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On 5/13/2019 at 8:59 PM, Dornish Mage said:

I think Viserys needed to be kept alive to "vouch" for Aegon, that he is indeed real. After all, people of Westeros would be really suspicious if this Aegon is real since there would be no concrete way to prove it. But if Viserys, the last living child of King Aerys was to say that this Aegon is indeed son of Rheagar, then people would accept it as truth as well. I have no idea why would Viserys ever do that since he wanted to be the king.

Following that, there could be war between Viserys and Aegon - Viserys is the son of the former king, so he is the heir and rightful king but Rhaegar was the crown prince, so others would support Aegon as an heir.

Something like that might have been the plan. Aegon would have indeed needed the blessing of another Targaryen to be seen as legitimate. It is quite clear that both Connington and the Golden Company are still very skeptical about going to Westeros without Dany and the dragons precisely for that reason. As things stand, it is likely going to go very fine for him without dragons or Dany, but to establish Aegon as a potentially future king he would have indeed needed the blessing of Viserys III while that guy was still alive.

Else they would have been forced work with a pretender of dubious origin later on, something that could have unmade all their careful planning.

I doubt, though, that anybody ever planned to have Aegon fight his uncle. One assumes they would have tried to present Aegon as the loyal and dutiful and reasonably nephew of Viserys III who would replace his uncle after his uncle suffered an accident or died after a sudden illness or choked to death at table.

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Aegon will be important, but he's a bit of a red herring for Connington to go back to Westeros and fulfill a more important role. Maybe a bit like how Oberyn seemed to be an important player, but his death eventually developed into Arianne entering the story. She's the PoV, not Doran or the snakes.

Spoiler for book 6 released chapters:

Spoiler

Arianne is on her way to meet Aegon and Griff and they have already taken a big chunk of the Stormlands. Arianne's more interested on meeting Jon than Aegon, so far and, as Halfmaester said, he's the one taking the decisions, not Aegon.

 

 

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On 5/6/2019 at 5:26 AM, Texas Hold Em said:

Aegon Targaryen is a major part of this story.  The hbo...

I reported to the moderators.

I think it is impossible to talk about the Sonf of Ice and Fire nowadays, there must be some genius spoiling about that GOT show...

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On 5/12/2019 at 8:27 PM, Crona said:

If Varys had no personal hatred towards him he would have used the crossbow instead of a blunt object to smash his head.

Also he killed and used Pycelle to lure Kevan.

I think that this what could have happened (why Varys killed Pycelle like that):

It's possible that, as a maester of Targaryens, Pycelle had medical records about little Aegon (whether the baby had any distinctive features, such as birthmark, or mole, or something like that). So to find out, whether Pycelle had records like that, Varys had approached him confidentially tet-a-tet in Pycelle's chambers, and told him that, according to information from Varys' spy-Network, in Stormlands appeared some guy, who claims, that he is son of Prince Rhaegar, so is there any way to prove that he is a fake, or to confirm whether he is legit? And Pycelle told him, that there is a way to confirm that guy's identity (if he is the real Aegon), and showed to Varys those diaries/journals with medical records of Targaryen family, including Aegon's. And he found in those records, that Aegon did had that something, that could be used as an indification feature. And because fAegon doesn't have that mark, Varys' plan was going to fall apart. So Varys took nearest heavy object, and used it to smash Pycelle's head. Then he went out of Pycelle's chamber, took a crossbow, ordered to one of his Little Birds to bring Kevan to Pycelle's chamber, and went there to wait for him.

And he didn't killed Pycelle with a crossbow, because where was he supposed to hide it, when he came into Pycelle's chamber? Maybe, they even went to that chamber together, from wherever Varys found Pycelle, when he requested to talk to him in private about important and confidential matters. It's not like he could have approached Pycelle, while carrying a crossbow with him, and asked Pycelle to just ignore, that for some reason he is carrying a weapon with him.

Furthermore, when Varys approached Pycelle, he had no idea, whether Pycelle really knows or may know something. So Varys wasn't sure, whether there will be a need to kill Pycelle. Thus, he didn't took any weapon with him, when he went to Pycelle. Pycelle's murder happened in a spur of a moment, with whatever was available, any heavy blunt object will do.

Varys killed Pycelle by smashing his head, and killed Kevan by using crossbow, because there was time and means to prepare for Kevan's assassination, while the necessity of Pycelle's death was questionable until the very last moment. The thing is, is that after Varys talked to Pycelle about fAegon, he couldn't have let him go, he had to prevent Pycelle from giving that information (Aegon's medical records) to anyone else. So Pycelle had to die, though it was a last moment decision. And thus to kill him, Varys had to use whatever was available. So there was noting personal for Varys in Pycelle's murder. He used different methods to kill Pycelle and Kevan, out of practicality, not because of some personal reasons.

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On 5/5/2019 at 8:24 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

In Crows and Dragons there is a definite shift towards the coming Targaryen invasion. Two of the great houses conspire to ally with Dany. Indeed if you read these chapters they act as if Dany is already a part of the Westeros storyline.

However Dany is clearly not setup to move towards Westeros. She’s locked in the struggles of Slavers Bay and has her whole deal with the Dothraki. She’s not getting to Westeros anytime soon. I would be amazed if she was there before mid ADOS. Even if Dany doesn’t conquer Essos and just rides off into the sunset towards Westeros. Too many plot lines, too many characters and too many meetings. GRRM can’t have failed to notice this issue. He clearly wants to pivot the plot towards Danys invasion; but can’t. Perhaps he simply wishes to add gravitas to it.

So, he creates another Targaryen claimant who gets there before Dany. This prevents Cersei tapping her foot waiting for Daenerys to show up for a whole book in TWOW. GRRM could have just done Eurons invasion or a Tyrell war but he wants to pivot the story so he had to make it about the Targaryens. 

I don’t think Aegon has been set up to take Kings Landing and displace the Lannister’s in the south. Not that you couldn’t make a story out of that. But he won’t for the same reason Stannis didn’t win the Blackwater. He would want to keep the Stark vs Lannister dimension and that goes away if Aegon wins.

No, I think he has probably planned since at least ACOK for someone to come in claiming to be Aegon son of Rhaegar. And I think AeGriff is definitely going to capture King's Landing, whether that means capturing Cersei and executing her or holding her hostage, or whether that means Cersei escaping to the West before King's Landing is captured.

I think this is the conflict Daenerys is going to be faced with when she finally invades Westeros. It is not going to be a very much hated Cersei Lannister standing between her and the Iron Throne, but a recently victorious and popular King Aegon VI Targaryen.

As for Dany and Meereen, based on her last ADWD chapter, I don't expect Dany to spend much more time in Meereen and Essos. In fact, I think there is a chance that she is going to bring fire and blood to the  city upon her return before moving on to Westeros. Dany believes she is a dragon, and dragons plant no trees.

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14 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

As for Dany and Meereen, based on her last ADWD chapter, I don't expect Dany to spend much more time in Meereen and Essos. In fact, I think there is a chance that she is going to bring fire and blood to the  city upon her return before moving on to Westeros. Dany believes she is a dragon, and dragons plant no trees.

You think, she will kill her own people, all those slaves that she freed? The problem with Meereen, is not all those, who came to seize it, including Ironborn. It's the slaves - Dany can't just leave them be on their own. She stayed at Meereen, because she didn't wanted with those people to happen the same thing, as with ex-slaves/citizens at Astapor. So Dany may burn Yunkaii and Ironborn, but there's no quick way to deal with her "children"/ex-slaves.

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2 minutes ago, Megorova said:

You think, she will kill her own people, all those slaves that she freed? The problem with Meereen, is not all those, who came to seize it, including Ironborn. It's the slaves - Dany can't just leave them be on their own. She stayed at Meereen, because she didn't wanted with those people to happen the same thing, as with ex-slaves/citizens at Astapor. So Dany may burn Yunkaii and Ironborn, but there's no quick way to deal with her "children"/ex-slaves.

I don't necessarily see her targeting Meereenese indiscriminately, but I think she is pretty much done with Meereen. She did everything she could to bring peace, including wed a man she had no desire to wed who promised it would bring peace. In the end, they still tried to kill her and her dragons. So I think she will be bringing death and destruction. Perhaps she will leave it up to those she has freed to follow her to Westeros or remain, but she isn't staying.

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No, fAegon is probably going to unseat the Lannisters and cause another series of military conflicts in Westeros. There's going to be a huge shift in power dynomics as he and Euron weaken the Tyrells and destabilizes the Westerlands. With all of this going on, it'll be easier for LF to invests upon his claim to the Riverlands and invades the North. It'll help Stannis gain traction in the North, depending on how long that he survives. After that, we're likely to get a second Dance against Dany.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Megorova said:

I think that this what could have happened (why Varys killed Pycelle like that):

It's possible that, as a maester of Targaryens, Pycelle had medical records about little Aegon (whether the baby had any distinctive features, such as birthmark, or mole, or something like that). So to find out, whether Pycelle had records like that, Varys had approached him confidentially tet-a-tet in Pycelle's chambers, and told him that, according to information from Varys' spy-Network, in Stormlands appeared some guy, who claims, that he is son of Prince Rhaegar, so is there any way to prove that he is a fake, or to confirm whether he is legit? And Pycelle told him, that there is a way to confirm that guy's identity (if he is the real Aegon), and showed to Varys those diaries/journals with medical records of Targaryen family, including Aegon's. And he found in those records, that Aegon did had that something, that could be used as an indification feature. And because fAegon doesn't have that mark, Varys' plan was going to fall apart. So Varys took nearest heavy object, and used it to smash Pycelle's head. Then he went out of Pycelle's chamber, took a crossbow, ordered to one of his Little Birds to bring Kevan to Pycelle's chamber, and went there to wait for him.

And he didn't killed Pycelle with a crossbow, because where was he supposed to hide it, when he came into Pycelle's chamber? Maybe, they even went to that chamber together, from wherever Varys found Pycelle, when he requested to talk to him in private about important and confidential matters. It's not like he could have approached Pycelle, while carrying a crossbow with him, and asked Pycelle to just ignore, that for some reason he is carrying a weapon with him.

Furthermore, when Varys approached Pycelle, he had no idea, whether Pycelle really knows or may know something. So Varys wasn't sure, whether there will be a need to kill Pycelle. Thus, he didn't took any weapon with him, when he went to Pycelle. Pycelle's murder happened in a spur of a moment, with whatever was available, any heavy blunt object will do.

Varys killed Pycelle by smashing his head, and killed Kevan by using crossbow, because there was time and means to prepare for Kevan's assassination, while the necessity of Pycelle's death was questionable until the very last moment. The thing is, is that after Varys talked to Pycelle about fAegon, he couldn't have let him go, he had to prevent Pycelle from giving that information (Aegon's medical records) to anyone else. So Pycelle had to die, though it was a last moment decision. And thus to kill him, Varys had to use whatever was available. So there was noting personal for Varys in Pycelle's murder. He used different methods to kill Pycelle and Kevan, out of practicality, not because of some personal reasons.

Well this is all based on speculation, there is no textual to any of this. I don’t see why Pycelle would share any medical knowledge with Varys. Because Varys holds no position in KL, he has been missing and Cersei named Qyburn as Master of Whispers. And he doesn’t even like Varys.

Varys could have waited and hid for Pycelle to come to his chambers because Pycelle had just gone to the council meeting. Once Pycelle was sitting Varys hit him with the blunt part of his crossbow. That’s all he had to do. There’s been no mention of any type of medical knowledge of Aegon nor was Aegon mentioned to have any marks at birth. We can only base Varys’ motivation on what was presented to us, and this means he has his crossbow with him during the whole time and was planning to cause further hysteria with Cersei thinking it’s Tyrion, but the real meat is that he had a crossbow but still decided to kill Pycelle with blunt force which is a more personal way to kill someone, not to mention the death is similar to Aegon’s own death. 

Also, Varys mentions that he had to kill Kevan and this is a premeditated murder that he planned out. For him not to have a weapon already when he plans to commit murder doesn’t sound likely. 

Edited by Crona

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Posted (edited)

Actually, since I think Aegon is the valonqar, I'm thinking he defeats Cersei and takes the throne. Chances are Cersei manages to exercise her revenge on the high sparrow and his followers, and Aegon is said to have been raised by a septon, so he can come as a defender of the faith. Cersei has a monster as a body guard, who killed Aegon's mother and sister, which gives him another good story to support him in the mind of the people if he defeats it too. Bran's vision mentions someone in a golden armor along with one who appears to be the Hound when he sees what might be Robert the Strong. Could be Aegon, rather than Jaime.

But if he sits on the throne and has the people's support, Dany would be conflicted in taking the throne from him, especially since he is a Targaryen. And if he marries Arianne, it totally screws Dany.

I can imagine that either she or Aegon or both will be called on to help in the north as the Others' threat massively increases, but at some point Dany has to find out or believe that Aegon is a fake. She would be faced with a difficult personal choice to make: let the supposed fake rule what belongs to her, or take him out. Doing the later would draw the hire of the people against her, especially if Aegon is said to have saved the people from the Others. Or, maybe Aegon never goes north, Dany does, but because she actually manages to stop the threat, the people never believe there WAS a threat from the Others. So she is just seen as a conqueror trying to take the throne from their beloved king. Imagine if she teams up with Euron out of desperation...

In any case I think the Aegon plot is the most promising. I hope we don't spend time in the Dothraki sea, GRRM can just have her return to Mereen with an army of Dothrakis. She has a big dragon, it doesn't take much to understand how she would get them to follow her!

Edited by NonoNono

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On 5/5/2019 at 11:22 PM, Plain, Simple Tailor said:

Possibly? 

Aegon's plot is just so massive, I don't know how it will be dealt with before the Long Night. 

A Dream of Spring is most likely going to end up being two books, one about Daenerys coming to Westeros and going against Aegon, and then one about the Long Night and then a Scouring of the Shire-esque wrap up where Cersei is dealt with and the Game of Thrones is concluded. 

I wonder what Part 1 will be called? Something about the Blackfyres, probably. 

Why make ADoS part I and part II instead of just dividing it into two different books?

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I only just started with Adwd, but what confused me is how (f?)aegon states his mother is a Tyroshi and that he dies his hair blue in memory of her.

Is he lying or was he not involved in the scheming of JonCon?

Also, if Lyanna meant for Jon Snow to be named Aegon as well, wouldn't he be Aegon VII, since his older brother would've been Aegon VI? Yet I constantly see people referring to Jon as Aegon the VI.

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7 hours ago, LadyOfCastamere said:

I only just started with Adwd, but what confused me is how (f?)aegon states his mother is a Tyroshi and that he dies his hair blue in memory of her.

Is he lying or was he not involved in the scheming of JonCon?

Also, if Lyanna meant for Jon Snow to be named Aegon as well, wouldn't he be Aegon VII, since his older brother would've been Aegon VI? Yet I constantly see people referring to Jon as Aegon the VI.

Yes, he was lying about the tyroshi mother. It was just a excuse to explain the blue hair

Jon would be only Aegon, because he isn't a king. That's why Daenerys is called "the first of her name", even though there was a previous Daenerys Targeryen.

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