Why are they plotting a coup?

[Dragons dance with Wolves]

What’s astounding to me is for all of Dany’s charisma when her game face is “on”, she’s so quick to throw a temper tantrum when she doesn’t get her way. And when she doesn’t get her way immediately, she overreacts negatively into making poor decisions.  

She has zero proficiency in offensive military tactics other than hopping on Drogon and trying to provoke fear. She’s relied on her Dragons and large numbers to intimidate her opponents, and hasn’t seen a real battle against Westerosi. The only two Westerosi military minded commanders she had died between Selmy and Jorah. She also forgot Jorah’s famous words: “To win Westeros, you will need support from Westeros”.

I mean she didn’t even use common sense — army is tired, rest. She complains Cersei’s forces grow stronger the longer she waits, but the bulk of Cersei’s forces are sellswords. When the gold runs out, they go home. The longer the fight, the greater the advantage for her forces.

What’s worse is Jon and Dany split their forces and plan to meet up with Dany taking the Navy to White Harbor. Your most experienced naval troops in Yara and her IB retook the Iron Islands, so you’re sailing with minimal captains who are probably little more than ferrymen transporting Dany’s ground forces. You know Euron has the naval advantage and numbers. As Ramsey Bolton said, the Kraken in the water is mighty and powerful, but take him out of the sea and he’ll be crushed under his own weight.

The way I see it, if you want to attack sooner rather than later, two ways to go about it: 

1. The longer way: Work your way South by land, and rally troops to replenish your army from the houses who support you in the North, Eyrie, Riverlands.  At this point you can crush the Westerlands to cut off Lannister reserves or try to sway who is left at the Rock with Jaime and Tyrion’s support. Try to gain the support of the remaining lords in the Reach, Stormlands and Dorne that despise Cersei, and attack King’s landing by land with the significant larger force.

or...

2. March your entire offensive force South and create a siege as Jon suggested. Use Tyrion and Varys’ vast knowledge of the bowels of the Red Keep to take a silent strike force during nightfall  like Grey Worm and Daario did with Astapor, and kill the men on the main gate’s towers manning the scorpions. Have the Dragons swoop in from up high once they’re disarmed and destroy the scorpions and burn a couple of holes in the walls of the keep. Then pull back the Dragons, and charge your Dothraki and Vale cavalry first, followed by infantry through the gates to storm the city.

Either of these methods prevent a long siege that starves the common folk and prevents Euron’s naval advantage, forcing the ironborn to fight on foot. 

Dany lets her impatience and hubris put herself in a poor position, down Rhaegal, her best friend, and several ships.

She even marches on the gates of the Red Keep without Jon’s forces trying to make peace with a psychopath. 

Dany May be a capable ruler, but she sucks at War, and is uneducated on how politics in Westeros actually work.

 

 

 

[Ser Loras The Gay]

Just now, Ser Lepus said:

It could have worked if not for the magical ballistas...

The ballistas that can pierce through reinforced wood of ships and kill from 200 meters a dragon with ease. Going against that is going to be impossible really.

[Khal Lhevon]

17 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

So it’s become extremely apparent that the Starks and Tyrion are plotting to declare Jon King. This is clearly the main twist.

Iam truly lost for words. Sansa and Arya were genuinely all for not marching south to fight Cersei. After Dany lost Jorah and most of her army helping the living? Scum. Absolute scum. It’s beyond contempt. To have no empathy for somebody who has helped you and whose only condition was that you do something you wanted to do anyway.

 Why are they making a power play? They’ve won. Winterfell is theirs and they’ve avenged their family. Putting Jon on the throne is a risk. What if Dany finds out? What if she doesn’t drop her claim quietly? That risks another civil war. All because you just don’t like somebody? 

 

 

 

 

I don't think that Sansa's just doing this because she doesn't like Dany, she was raised by Eddard Stark, who strictly obeyed laws and traditions (especially to do with inheritance), it seems like one of the hardest things Ned ever did was lie just before being killed about Joffrey being legitimate. In the books Stannis isn't so ambitious for rule, he doesn't even seem to want to rule very badly, he just sees it as his lawful duty. I would say Sansa has a similar idea about Jon, she thinks it doesn't matter what he wants, by law he must be king, since his claim is ahead of Daenerys'.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

4 minutes ago, Dragons dance with Wolves said:

 

 

You should be her war counselor not Tyrion.

[Tyrion1991]

5 minutes ago, The_Spanish_Inquisition said:

Sansa shouldn’t need to provide a timetable to convince Dany, if Dany was anything like a capable commander of troops. All she had to say was “fine, have an answer to me by sundown and I’ll make a call from there”. 

Instead, she loses her temper at Sansa for no good reason, and further drives home the point that she has no one truly willing to stop her from making crap decisions. 

It makes no sense to move your ragged troops hundreds of miles to fight a battle against a foe that’s likely already as imposing as it’s going to get. 

 

Because she’s just lost Jorah, all her Dothraki, is contemplating that she will be a footnote in another mans story and this sour passive aggressive ginger is continuing to snipe at her? Sansa is being out of line and irreverent not Dany. Her response was measured.

I don’t for a second believe Sansa was sincere. She all but gloated when she learned that Rhaegal had died. She wants Dany to lose. 

[MinscS2]

Just now, Ser Loras The Gay said:

The ballistas that can pierce through reinforced wood of ships and kill from 200 meters a dragon with ease. Going against that is going to be impossible really.

Qyburn has redefined Westerosi warfare, both on land and at sea.
Fuck the dragons, give me a handfull of ballistae.

Just one of the many stupid writing decisions this episode.
They didn't know how to re-balance the scales between Team Daenerys and Team Cersei, so they gave Cersei a weapon stronger than anything ever seen before in Westeros: a Ballistae with remarkable rate of fire and remarkable punch, being able to penetrate both dragons and massive wooden ships.

The Last Jedi gave us cruisers crashing into dreadnaughts at lightspeed.
S8E4 GoT gave us magical ballistae.

[House Cambodia]

2 minutes ago, Hodor's Dragon said:

Dany sees herself as an "Aryan goddess" who despises the brown-skinned.

Ah no, you're conflating 2 very separate points I divided into 2 paragraphs.

I'm not saying Dany or the Targaryans are racist, but they do see themselves as a pure-blooded superior race to all others.

Separate to that, it is unfortunate that in the way GRRM portrays his various tribal and ethnic groups, she finds herself ruling over savages and ex-slaves.

Then to compound the issue, D&D chose to avoid fleshing out the non-white characters, with only Greyworm and Missendai having any depth and even then not much.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

2 minutes ago, Khal Lhevon said:

I don't think that Sansa's just doing this because she doesn't like Dany, she was raised by Eddard Stark, who strictly obeyed laws and traditions (especially to do with inheritance), it seems like one of the hardest things Ned ever did was lie just before being killed about Joffrey being legitimate. In the books Stannis isn't so ambitious for rule, he doesn't even seem to want to rule very badly, he just sees it as his lawful duty. I would say Sansa has a similar idea about Jon, she thinks it doesn't matter what he wants, by law he must be king, since his claim is ahead of Daenerys'

She's doing that because she wants the North independent so she can rule something with real power. She's not stupid, she knows that Dany would never give up any of the Kingdoms if shes makes to the Throne, and at the same time she knows that Cersei would never leave the North at peace if they declare independency. She needs to put dany on the Throne and then put Jon as the rightful king and heir or simply outstand the Lannister forces without invading the south but rather, making them invade the north which is impossible because of Moat cailin.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

2 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

Qyburn has redefined Westerosi warfare, both on land and at sea.
Fuck the dragons, give me a handfull of ballistae.

What's even the point of having dragons right now? Tha ballistas are so more powerful, they are easy to produce, easy to use (they shoot a fucking dragon 200 meters away  3 times and hit him 3 times). I really don't know how they're going to rebalance the scales.. Maybe the'yre going to nerf the ballista next episode so it can fit the script.

[Khal Lhevon]

1 minute ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

She's doing that because she wants the North independent so she can rule something with real power. She's not stupid, she knows that Dany would never give up any of the Kingdoms if shes makes to the Throne, and at the same time she knows that Cersei would never leave the North at peace if they declare independency. She needs to put dany on the Throne and then put Jon as the rightful king and heir or simply outstand the Lannister forces without invading the south but rather, making them invade the north which is impossible because of Moat cailin.

Yes, she does want to take power in the north, all I'm saying is I think a significant part of her motivations are the strict legal standards that Eddard tried to uphold with his children, which is demonstrated with the beheading of the NW deserter in episode 1, and what Jon tells Bran.

[Dragons dance with Wolves]

11 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

You should be her war counselor not Tyrion.

One can dream..... I know production cost is high, and we have limited “real estate” to finish the story for the show version, but the writing and character decision-making just seems so rushed and sloppy. They took characters that they spent 7 seasons developing, only to have quite a few of them do an about face 180 with impulsive responses.

Jon has historically show himself to be a capable military commander and yet he decides to let Dany “do it her way”. You told your commanding officer of the Nights Watch to let the Wildlings through the wall... hard but correct truth. You won’t sack up and tell Dany to settle down and use her brain for a second?

[The_Spanish_Inquisition]

3 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Because she’s just lost Jorah, all her Dothraki, is contemplating that she will be a footnote in another mans story and this sour passive aggressive ginger is continuing to snipe at her? Sansa is being out of line and irreverent not Dany. Her response was measured.

I don’t for a second believe Sansa was sincere. She all but gloated when she learned that Rhaegal had died. She wants Dany to lose. 

I totally agree that Sansa has been unnecessarily snotty to Dany from the start, but dealing with snottiness is part of learning to rule. So is learning how to rule effectively despite your personal feelings. 

Regardless of whether Sansa was being sincere or not, it’s unwise of Dany to refuse to allow the army even a small break. She’s just lost her primary advisor and the majority of her army, and instead of taking a moment to step back and consider she’s hellbent on pushing forward immediately.

She doesn’t need to be a footnote in anyone’s story, and if she’d take some time to actually absorb the lessons of leadership she’d be in a much better place. 

[Ser Loras The Gay]

1 minute ago, Dragons dance with Wolves said:

Jon has historically show himself to be a capable military commander and yet he decides to let Dany “do it her way”. You told your commanding officer of three Nights Watch to let three Wildlings through the wall... hard but correct truth. You won’t sack up and tell Dany to settle down and use her brain for a second?

Not only that. On the 4th season he and the night's watch had made pretty good decisions regarding the strategy to defend the wall against the widlings. They used, a lot of arrows, oil, barrels with oil, barricades, decoys etc. But on the last episode none of that was used to try and delay the Wights to pass the walls and breach into the castle. I don't undeerstand this need to dumb down every character so the script can work.

[Tyrion1991]

3 minutes ago, The_Spanish_Inquisition said:

I totally agree that Sansa has been unnecessarily snotty to Dany from the start, but dealing with snottiness is part of learning to rule. So is learning how to rule effectively despite your personal feelings. 

Regardless of whether Sansa was being sincere or not, it’s unwise of Dany to refuse to allow the army even a small break. She’s just lost her primary advisor and the majority of her army, and instead of taking a moment to step back and consider she’s hellbent on pushing forward immediately.

She doesn’t need to be a footnote in anyone’s story, and if she’d take some time to actually absorb the lessons of leadership she’d be in a much better place. 

 

Daenerys tried to make peace with Sansa in episode 2 I believe. Dany had been nothing but courteous to Sansa up until that point. So bad that Jon has at least twice had to tell her to stop being a brat. 

You are underselling how dark a state of mind Dany is in. The episode begins with her burning Jorah, has her lose a dragon and ends with Missandeis head being chopped off. Those are not normal circumstances. A bit of stiff upper lip isn’t what’s called for.

Did we forget the massive party they had? How is that not rest? Never mind the months it would take to move the armies south. They can’t rest on the Kings Road? 

Jon becomes King she could maybe return to Essos. But her entire arc will have been to put Jon on the throne. All the sacrifices and losses Dany has made will have been in vain. Thousands of people have willingly died to get her on that chair. It would be a betrayal of them if she turned aside so easily.

But yes, Dany could just leave Westeros with her armies tomorrow. Leave the Starks to their fate. But she won’t because she loves Jon.

[Ser Lepus]

28 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Not only that. On the 4th season he and the night's watch had made pretty good decisions regarding the strategy to defend the wall against the widlings. They used, a lot of arrows, oil, barrels with oil, barricades, decoys etc. But on the last episode none of that was used to try and delay the Wights to pass the walls and breach into the castle. I don't undeerstand this need to dumb down every character so the script can work.

It would have been nice to watch them trying to use the oil, but that would probably have not worked; the zombies would just pile at the feet of the walls even while burning, building a rampart the same way they built a bridge to cross the fire pit...

What I don't like is, why didn't they shoot against the zombies while they were sitting ducks in front of the fire pits? And, why did they try to even fight the zombies in the open field instead of waiting for them on the walls?

It would have been nice if they had dig several lines of fire pits, but I guess they lacked enough time.

I would also have put a layer of wood and straw on the floor of the bailey, so they could set it on fire if the zombies managed to pass the walls...

[Ser Lepus]

2 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

But yes, Dany could just leave Westeros with her armies tomorrow. Leave the Starks to their fate. But she won’t because she loves Jon.

I bet she regrets not staying at Slaver's Bay, with the freedmen who called her mother and loved her...

[Ser Loras The Gay]

4 minutes ago, Ser Lepus said:

It would have been nice if they had dig several lines of fire pits, but I guess they lacked enough time.

They know about the possible invasion for at least 5 months. When Jon wins the Battle of bastards they're already making improviments to their defenses. In that stage they should've started to make a batter preparation. They simply didn't.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

I don't think that's it.

I think it has more to do with the fact that Jon -- while he still loves her -- is very uncomfortable with the fact he is a trueborn Targaryen in love with his Targaryen aunt.

He doesn't want her the way he used to anymore. That's deeply distressing...Dany wants it to go back to like it was before but neither she nor Jon can do that.

It's sad. I feel bad for her.

That's only in your head. There is not the slightest hint that Jon no longer desires Dany if you watch their scenes together. It is Dany who is shocked about 'the revelation', not he, and it is she who pushes him back last episode, not he. 

Dany doesn't care at all about what this does to their relationship - they don't even discuss their aunt-nephew relationship (which shouldn't be a thing considering the two avuncular marriages in the Stark family tree as well as the many cousin marriages they had). All they talk about is Jon's superior claim and what that's going to do to Dany/them if it gets out.

Also, if you look at book Dany she is never a tyrant. She allows Hizdahr to lead her around by the nose. She even grants him the title of 'king', she has a lot of advisers she actually listens to, etc. Chances are about zero that she would not want a strong and opinionated prince/king consort at her side if she ever took another spouse after Hizdahr.

3 hours ago, Ser Gareth said:

She's flowered.  In Westeros terms that's a woman grown surely?  By the time she reaches the North in the books she'll be the same as age, or even older, than when we were introduced to Margaery (who is definitely a player).

No, you are an adult in Westeros when you are sixteen, not earlier. When you are flowered you can consummate a marriage, but that's a different thing.

Margaery is never a real player in the books. To the degree she is she acts in an informal capacity. Sansa can certainly do that, too, but this wouldn't exactly reach very far. The fact that the show has an adult Sophie Turner completely changes what the characters can and would do.

3 hours ago, Ser Gareth said:

Jon doesn't need Targaryen loyalists in the North.  All he needs are Northerners willing to follow him, irrespective of whether he is a Targ or a Stark.

And how many are those in the books right now? 10,000, perhaps, half of them Boltons. How many of them are going to die in the battle at Winterfell? How many in the later fighting, including the War for the Dawn?

3 hours ago, Ser Gareth said:

As for the solution, yes I agree.  Marriage.  But Dany doesn't want an equal partnership.  She wants to be defacto ruler.

Does she? That's what the people around her say. Has she ever said that? No. And for the record: The book Dany does share her power and actually seems to be looking forward to find those other two dragon heads she can trust.

[The_Spanish_Inquisition]

2 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Daenerys tried to make peace with Sansa in episode 2 I believe. Dany had been nothing but courteous to Sansa up until that point. So bad that Jon has at least twice had to tell her to stop being a brat. 

You are underselling how dark a state of mind Dany is in. The episode begins with her burning Jorah, has her lose a dragon and ends with Missandeis head being chopped off. Those are not normal circumstances. A bit of stiff upper lip isn’t what’s called for.

Did we forget the massive party they had? How is that not rest? Never mind the months it would take to move the armies south. They can’t rest on the Kings Road? 

Jon becomes King she could maybe return to Essos. But her entire arc will have been to put Jon on the throne. All the sacrifices and losses Dany has made will have been in vain. Thousands of people have willingly died to get her on that chair. It would be a betrayal of them if she turned aside so easily.

But yes, Dany could just leave Westeros with her armies tomorrow. Leave the Starks to their fate. But she won’t because she loves Jon.

I get that she’s in a seriously dark place right now. Even more reason that she should be willing to take a few days to wrap her head around it before she goes marching off to war with her tiny and exhausted army. That’s not good strategy, and it’s not good rulership. 

That’s the whole point. She refuses to allow anyone to give her real, hard advice about ruling, which is why she’s a good conqueror but a terrible queen.  

Sansa did an awful job of conveying it to her, but Sansa wasn’t wrong. Dany just isn’t willing to look beyond it to the actual advice. She doesn’t need to leave Westeros, or abandon her goal, or dump Jon, or defer to his leadership. 

One night of getting trashed and walking for miles a day is not resting your army. Marching a fatigued army south is exactly the strategy that lost Harold the Battle of Hastings and led to the Norman Conquest.  

[Tyrion1991]

6 minutes ago, Ser Lepus said:

I bet she regrets not staying at Slaver's Bay, with the freedmen who called her mother and loved her...

 

Perhaps she does. But then Dany isn’t doing this for herself. If happiness had been her object then she would have stayed with Drogo in the Dothraki Sea. She believes this is her destiny, and it is. I am not sure how else you can rationalise her getting dragons and her fortuitously arriving in time for the Battle of Winter. Plus freeing all of Essos.

Although, assuming they don’t burn the whole city down, they have set it up so there’s an appropriately large body of people in the Red Keep. So they might be setting that up as a twist that the people of Westeros have a change of heart.