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Predicting and Gambling


Pontius Pilate

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Many bold predictions are written on these message boards regularly.  I find something new every time I visit.  A lot have little to go on.  That's because there is no cost to be wrong.  Gambling is different.  There is a real economic cost.  Which one of your theories are you willing to bet a week's earnings on?  

 

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Sansa spends most of the Long Night asleep / comatose / dreaming / sort of dead.

(It's really hard to define a bet in a way that's clear enough to ever get paid out.)

The Long Night actually occurs over three nights. Three sleeps, that is, because the last day never sees the sun. Or maybe that is the Long Night. And there'll be some sort of time slip.

(See?)

The Others, or someone else who lives in the far north, have a society based on insects. There will be hives, and hive-minds.

(I should really bet on this one.)

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I would bet that the Tyrells had nothing to do with Joffrey's poisoning. LF, Dontos and Sansa were the only people involved with Sansa being the one who put the poison in the chalice. I really can't express enough how convinced I am of this.

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17 hours ago, Centurion Piso said:

Many bold predictions are written on these message boards regularly.  I find something new every time I visit.  A lot have little to go on.  That's because there is no cost to be wrong.  Gambling is different.  There is a real economic cost.  Which one of your theories are you willing to bet a week's earnings on?  

 

Jon’s name is aegon. Gambled my username on it at least. 

Mance wrote the pink letter would be another.

lastly, I’ll go with rhaegar was a good guy

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I would bet that the 3EC, the Last Green-Seer, Coldhands, Ash, Leaf, Scales, Black Knife, Snowylocks, Coals and Craster are ALL bad guys who are allies with the Others.

 

And all the TWOW readers' genuine reactions would be "THANK GOD!! Its already different!" lol

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Why in heaven's name would anybody who isn't a millionaire take such a bet.  GRRM spends hours of each day thinking up ways to surprise us.  Most of what we think we know will be proven wrong.  I'll bet $25 max.  Walder Frey will outlive Arya Stark.

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On ‎5‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 1:59 AM, Centurion Piso said:

Many bold predictions are written on these message boards regularly.  I find something new every time I visit.  A lot have little to go on.  That's because there is no cost to be wrong.  Gambling is different.  There is a real economic cost.  Which one of your theories are you willing to bet a week's earnings on?  

In an online context?  I'll promise to pay nothing to no-one.  Because who is going to pay me, if I am right?  Why, then, would I promise to pay if I'm wrong?  Unless it's a false promise I don't intend to keep (-- and why would an honest person make such a promise? -- ) it is just a lose-lose situation.

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48 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Westeros.org needs its own currency.  How about it Ran?  Some kind of fake crypto currency so we can all bet on theories.

Isn't that illegal (unlicensed gambling), and can cause this forum to be shot down? Maybe not. But better to be safe than sorry.

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