Varys and Illyrio under the Red Keep

[Clegane'sPup]

49 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

 But that is much later. 

Later than what? 

Edit: Arghhhhhhhhhhh, page two. I have such problems flippin' back and forth.

In hindsight, it is my opine that when Arya, over hears the V & I conversation they are speaking about JonCon.

[weirwoodface]

6 hours ago, Syl of Syl said:

At this point in the story at least, we're led to believe that Varys and Illyrio are trying to time the inevitable civil war so that Dany can arrive as a savior rather than a conqueror. 

fAegon, not Dany, right?

 

[bent branch]

1 hour ago, weirwoodface said:

fAegon, not Dany, right?

 

Viserys with the Dothraki and Aegon with the Gold Company.

[Syl of Syl]

1 hour ago, weirwoodface said:

fAegon, not Dany, right?

At this point in the story, we haven't met Young Griff. We know about Dany and her connection to Illyrio, so when we see Illyrio talking to Varys and what they are talking about, we think it is about Dany. At least, I certainly remember thinking they must be talking about Dany at the time.

Regardless, Illyrio says that the war is coming too soon and that they are not ready. It is the first time we see that Illyrio and Varys are co-conspirators of some sort. Certainly now, we know that Young Griff is part of this not ready calculation, but I don't think it's wrong to say that Dany was part of the scheme as well, even now.

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, Syl of Syl said:

At this point in the story at least, we're led to believe that Varys and Illyrio are trying to time the inevitable civil war so that Dany can arrive as a savior rather than a conqueror. 

I disagree. We readers should realize that Illyrio is playing them right away. We meet Illyrio very early, in Daenerys I, Game 3, where we learn that Illyrio has been aiding the Targlings and showering them with gifts for the past six months. Viserys believes that Illyrio is doing this for profit, believing that Illyrio expects to be rewarded when he comes into his throne, but Daenerys’s misgivings, as well as the fact that they were left to run from city to city for several years before Illyrio began to succor them, suggests right away to the reader that Illyrio’s motives should be questioned.

Quote

Dany could smell the stench of Illyrio's pallid flesh through his heavy perfumes.

When Viserys talks about making good his claim to the Iron Throne, he declares that he will kill Robert Baratheon himself, to which Illyrio replies, “That would be most fitting," but Daenerys notices “the smallest hint of a smile playing around his full lips,” which Viserys fails to notice. And Illyrio appears to feed into Viserys’s paranoia about being pursued by assassins sent by Robert Baratheon, which we learn just nine chapters later is a false belief. 

Illyrio, of course, attends the wedding feast in Daenerys II, Game 11, and once again, we see a hint that Illyrio has some ulterior motive. When Viserys claims that he is “no lesser man,” but “the rightful Lord of the Seven Kingdoms,” and that “[t]he dragon does not beg," Daenerys notices...

Quote

Illyrio smiled enigmatically and tore a wing from the duck. Honey and grease ran over his fingers and dripped down into his beard as he nibbled at the tender meat.

 

[Syl of Syl]

1 minute ago, bent branch said:

Viserys with the Dothraki and Aegon with the Gold Company.

O right. I guess it would have been Viserys and not Dany at this point.

That plan also makes more sense if we think that they wanted to set up Viserys as the Mad King returned with an invading army of foreign Dothraki to do all the dirty work of conquering and then the Aegon arrives with the Golden Company to unite everyone behind him as a savior.

 

[Syl of Syl]

11 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I disagree. We readers should realize that Illyrio is playing them right away.

Whatever Illyrio's true motivation, I was just making the point that when Illyrio says that they are not ready, he is talking about Dany or perhaps Viserys or as we learn later perhaps Aegon/Young Griff. Those are the elements of their scheme that are not ready yet, which is why he wants to delay the war that would likely ensue from Ned revealing the truth. And that's why Varys's counterpoint about killing Ned is that that too would lead to war.

The point is that they are talking about delaying the inevitable civil war that they've been working to stir up for years. Jon Arryn's death was the earlier tactic they used to delay this war. That's the Hand's death that they are talking about.

[chrisdaw]

22 minutes ago, Syl of Syl said:

O right. I guess it would have been Viserys and not Dany at this point.

That plan also makes more sense if we think that they wanted to set up Viserys as the Mad King returned with an invading army of foreign Dothraki to do all the dirty work of conquering and then the Aegon arrives with the Golden Company to unite everyone behind him as a savior.

No it doesn't. It's an annoyingly oft repeated theory that runs counter to the text and not grounded in it anywhere.

Quote

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

The GC were to join with the dothraki.

And people make the incorrect assumption based on the above passage that there was once a plan to sit Viserys on the throne. Just because they intended to join with Viserys and 'his' dothraki doesn't mean they ever intended to crown him. That's just what they told Viserys at that point to get him to play along, but he's not particularly important, he can be mislead and redirected as they need and if he sticks in and becomes a problem then he can be easily offed.

They needed swords and the trick was to get a motivated dothraki horde across the narrow sea.

[Syl of Syl]

18 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

No it doesn't. It's an annoyingly oft repeated theory that runs counter to the text and not grounded in it anywhere.

Quote

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

 The GC were to join with the dothraki.

Ok. It's also possible that Illyrio is not divulging every detail of his plans to Tristan Rivers and his buddies given that part of the plan requires secrecy.

We know that he had Aegon and Jon Connington simmering away in his back pocket all this time. What was his idea for that piece of the puzzle, if the original plan was truly to send Viserys across the Narrow Sea with both the Dothraki and Golden Company at his back?

[chrisdaw]

38 minutes ago, Syl of Syl said:

Ok. It's also possible that Illyrio is not divulging every detail of his plans to Tristan Rivers and his buddies given that part of the plan requires secrecy.

We know that he had Aegon and Jon Connington simmering away in his back pocket all this time. What was his idea for that piece of the puzzle, if the original plan was truly to send Viserys across the Narrow Sea with both the Dothraki and Golden Company at his back?

They don't need a plan when it comes to Viserys because he is inconsequential, they can make it up as they need to. The dothraki coming to Westeros to crown him is just what he needed to hear at that time to keep things moving. Illyrio and Varys need swords, the trick is in getting a dothraki horde motivated to cross the narrow sea. That's the real hard part, the crux of the matter. Once they're there they just need to point Drogo in the direction of their enemies and he'll do what he does. If Viserys dies, if which silver haired purple eyed prince they are going to crown changes, it's not going to matter to him. He's not going to stop the rape and pillaging and fighting. If Viserys lives long enough for him to become a problem for Aegon and won't step aside for the better claimant then Illyrio and Varys can deal with that problem then.

The GC always knew about Aegon. They were always intending to invade Westeros to sit Aegon on the throne.

[Syl of Syl]

30 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

The GC always knew about Aegon. They were always intending to invade Westeros to sit Aegon on the throne.

I don't really get what you're saying. Before you said:

1 hour ago, chrisdaw said:

The GC were to join with the dothraki.

How could it have been both?

[chrisdaw]

57 minutes ago, Syl of Syl said:

I don't really get what you're saying. Before you said:

How could it have been both?

Why can't it be? And that's not just what I'm saying and more what is said in the text. The GC knew about Aegon, JC was going for the big reveal and then he realised by their reaction they already knew.

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, Syl of Syl said:

Whatever Illyrio's true motivation, I was just making the point that when Illyrio says that they are not ready, he is talking about Dany or perhaps Viserys or as we learn later perhaps Aegon/Young Griff. Those are the elements of their scheme that are not ready yet, which is why he wants to delay the war that would likely ensue from Ned revealing the truth. And that's why Varys's counterpoint about killing Ned is that that too would lead to war.

The point is that they are talking about delaying the inevitable civil war that they've been working to stir up for years. Jon Arryn's death was the earlier tactic they used to delay this war. That's the Hand's death that they are talking about.

Yes, there is no doubt that in the absence of hindsight and withou knowing of Jon Connington, there is no way for the reader to conclude that Illyrio is referring to Jon Connington (if he actually is), and I am sure we all assumed that he was referring to Jon Arryn. But the reader should realize, even early in Game, that Aegon being being rendered unrecognizable by Gregor, the author has set up the return of the prince, real or an imposter, backed by Varys and Illyrio. 

[Ser Leftwich]

"Perhaps so," the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. "Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages."

Illyrio says this. They clearly currently only want to delay until Drogo is ready to go for THIS version of the plan.

We know roughly how long Varys and Illyrio have been nursing the plan for fAegon, but they can't just send him over by himself and tell Robert to piss off, they can at best, nudge the situation a little here and there to get a good opportunity for fAegon to arrive. Varys is not a wizard.

Why did they not add Viserys and Dany until later? We can only speculate. A distraction to set the stage for fAegon? Perhaps it was only convenient story timing? They have to keep changing the plan because circumstances keep changing. As all powerful some like to suggest Varys and/or Littlefinger are, they most decidedly are not. They have to work with what they have.

[The Commentator]

22 hours ago, Megorova said:

They were talking about death of Jon Arryn, not Jon Connington. Basically they admitted, that they were involved in Arryn's death. And what they were saying, is that, if they had already offed one King's Hand, then why not to do the same thing again - why not to kill Ned Stark.

Jon Arryn was killed by Lysa and Littlefinger. Though, most likely, LF used to be working for Varys. So Varys was aware, that LF is going to kill Arryn, but didn't prevented it. Because, removing from Small Council someone as capable as Jon Arryn, made it easier for Varys and Illyrio to prepare what they needed to support fAegon. Illyrio was asking Varys to slow down some things, because fAegon and Golden Company were not ready yet. First they needed to resolve that situation with Dany, Viserys, and Dothraki, that were supposed to aid fAegon during his invasion of 7K.

Jon Arryn was poisoned by two women.  Lysa and Varys.  Lysa thought it was her poison.  Varys did to Jon Arryn what he later did again to Kevan and Pycelle.  It’s what Illyrio wanted to do to Ned.  Ned was a good man serving a bad cause.  

A world with Westeros and the Dothraki people ruled by the Targaryens has a great deal of potential for good.  The Targaryens have judged and settled disputes in the East before.  There are leaders in the Free Cities who wanted the Targaryens restored to power.  The world will be a much better place.  It’s been proven that the Baratheon, Starks, Lannisters, and Greyjoys cannot police themselves.  It didn’t take long for the realm to fall apart as soon as they had control.

I don’t completely agree with Varys killing Kevan but you have to break eggs to make a tasty omelette.  The road to power is full of casualties.  Sometimes what the bad guy (Roose) does is more beneficial to the people than what the good guy (Robb) wants to do.  This may be the case with Varys.  They should have killed Ned quickly.

[John Suburbs]

On 5/7/2019 at 12:43 PM, Ser Leftwich said:

snip

 

Has consensus built that Illyrio and Varys here are talking about Jon Connington and faking his death? And is at least Illyrio proposing they do the same with Ned?

 

If so, what did Illyrio want to do with Ned?

I don't see how they could be referring to Arryn here. JA's death was what set all the war forces in motion, so why would they do that if they are still not ready for war months later? At the same time, JonCon makes only slightly more sense because they are talking about a Hand dying and 1) JC was not Hand at the time of his "death", 2) JC did not die, and 3) Varys would not have had to "dance a dance" in order to spread the rumor that he did die.

So my guess is that they are referring to Chelsted. Varys may have been the one to arouse Chelsted's suspicions over the comings and goings of the pyromancers, which led to his death. In the same way, Varys may be able to tip Ned off about the royal children, which would cause him to bring it to Robert, which, with no proof, would result in a TBC that would get Ned killed by the Mountain. Varys rejects this idea with "Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other" -- basically, that Ned is not fool enough to make this accusation without proof.

 

[BlackLightning]

18 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I disagree. We readers should realize that Illyrio is playing them right away. We meet Illyrio very early, in Daenerys I, Game 3, where we learn that Illyrio has been aiding the Targlings and showering them with gifts for the past six months. Viserys believes that Illyrio is doing this for profit, believing that Illyrio expects to be rewarded when he comes into his throne, but Daenerys’s misgivings, as well as the fact that they were left to run from city to city for several years before Illyrio began to succor them, suggests right away to the reader that Illyrio’s motives should be questioned.

When Viserys talks about making good his claim to the Iron Throne, he declares that he will kill Robert Baratheon himself, to which Illyrio replies, “That would be most fitting," but Daenerys notices “the smallest hint of a smile playing around his full lips,” which Viserys fails to notice. And Illyrio appears to feed into Viserys’s paranoia about being pursued by assassins sent by Robert Baratheon, which we learn just nine chapters later is a false belief. 

Illyrio, of course, attends the wedding feast in Daenerys II, Game 11, and once again, we see a hint that Illyrio has some ulterior motive. When Viserys claims that he is “no lesser man,” but “the rightful Lord of the Seven Kingdoms,” and that “[t]he dragon does not beg," Daenerys notices...

Illyrio smiled enigmatically and tore a wing from the duck. Honey and grease ran over his fingers and dripped down into his beard as he nibbled at the tender meat.

OMG

Daenerys never trusted nor liked Illyrio.

When she returns to Pentos and finds out the truth (I use that word lightly because the whole truth of the situation is unlikely to be revealed before the first half of A Dream of Spring) from Tyrion and/or Marwyn, she is going to be outraged. Daenerys wasn't particularly fond of Viserys for obvious reason but he was still her brother and her primary caretaker.

I'm afraid for Illyrio and I don't even like him.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

I don't see how they could be referring to Arryn here. JA's death was what set all the war forces in motion, so why would they do that if they are still not ready for war months later?

Because they didn't account for the sloppy, random cruelty of the Lannisters towards Bran.

I'm sorry but having adulterous sex and scheming in the home of your husband's best friend who already doesn't like or trust you is beyond risky. And to do so in an insecure location. At a time when your absence would be questioned?

It's both rank stupidity and arrogance.

Surely, Varys understood that Bran had a special place in Catelyn's heart. He should have worked to prevent the second assassination attempt because that's what set Catelyn off. He also should have made it an effort to be the first one to approach Catelyn in King's Landing not Littlefinger.

But Littlefinger will Littlefinger. And Varys is not a wizard.

On 5/7/2019 at 3:13 PM, Syl of Syl said:

Very little happens in King's Landing that Varys isn't at least aware of. Varys likely would have been aware that Jon Arryn and Stannis had uncovered the truth about Cersei's kids. Varys would have had the information and Cersei would have had the motive, while Littlefinger had the means. Dancing the dance doesn't have to mean that Varys was the ringleader, simply that he was involved in orchestrating the pieces. The right word in the right place would trigger a series of events ending in Jon Arryn's death. That's the Spider's modus operandi.

It just doesn't make sense to me to connect Jon Connington with Ned. The two situations have very little in common. Varys and Illyrio wanted Connington believed dead so that they could use him for their purposes, while Ned is a problem for what he knows - the same information that got Jon Arryn killed. That's the thread that connects Arryn and Ned Stark in this conversation.

Meanwhile, Jon Connington's fake death was years in the past at this point and took place when he was several years removed from serving as Hand. Furthermore, since Connington, there have been three Hands, all of whom died while serving. If they are talking about the death of a Hand other than the most recent one, why not one of the other two predecessors who were actually Hand when they were killed?

I think the point is that Jon Arryn died to keep a secret buried so that they can maintain the status quo. Illyrio wants to know why Ned can't die for the same reason. Varys rightly concludes that while Ned's death might keep that secret buried, the state of the realm would not maintain as it did in the previous case. They wanted to delay the start of the civil war until they were ready to capitalize on it, but Ned's death exacerbated the situation.

Don't forget that Lysa Arryn was living in King's Landing at the time as well

[Lost Melnibonean]

11 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

OMG

Daenerys never trusted nor liked Illyrio.

No, that's not quite right, I think. The signals the author was sending in those first two Daenerys chapters were meant for the reader. Daenerys surely had misgivings.  But she appears to have resolved her misgivings in Illyrio's favor. 

[BlackLightning]

2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

No, that's not quite right, I think. The signals the author was sending in those first two Daenerys chapters were meant for the reader. Daenerys surely had misgivings.  But she appears to have resolved her misgivings in Illyrio's favor. 

But for how long?

[BlackLightning]

snip