Heresy 221 and the Children of Winterfell

[LynnS]

2 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

I think Aegon will prove   important for the story after Tyrion's comment about him being everything. Is it possible Jon has nothing special about him? Apart from theorized resurrection. Melisandre thinks Stannis is Azor Ahai, in Essos we have Daenerys to continue this role, Aegon is PTWP, Bran is new Dreamer, Rickon is Lord of WF and Winged Wolf. What about Jon? I can see him as new King of Winter and King Beyond the Wall but that's all. I do believe he could be a Dayne but SOTM role is given to Gerold Dayne now... The fact he seems to be jobless is the reason I want him to stay dead. 

About the mummer's version it is possible in the books for Aegon to declare Edric "Baratheon" as Lord of Storm's End. 

I don't see Jon, Bran, Arya or Rickon surviving except in their second lives as direwolves, IF the direwolves survive.   I think Arya's death is foreshadowed in GoT:

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Arya I

Jon watched them leave, and Arya watched Jon. His face had grown as still as the pool at the heart of the godswood. Finally he climbed down off the window. "The show is done," he said. He bent to scratch Ghost behind the ears. The white wolf rose and rubbed against him. "You had best run back to your room, little sister. Septa Mordane will surely be lurking. The longer you hide, the sterner the penance. You'll be sewing all through winter. When the spring thaw comes, they will find your body with a needle still locked tight between your frozen fingers."

Also guessing that it will be Arya who has to give the gift of mercy to Jon in the end. 

I'm betting that Sansa will survive along with Aegon and it won't be Jon and Dany who hook up, but those two.

Tyrion will survive and write the true history of the song of ice and fire and act as advisor to Sansa and Aegon in rebuilding/scouring the shire. 

I think Jaime will end up with Jon and Sam; that these three are the Sword, Shield and Horn of the NW oath.

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A Storm of Swords - Jaime VIII

The table itself was old weirwood, pale as bone, carved in the shape of a huge shield supported by three white stallions. By tradition the Lord Commander sat at the top of the shield, and the brothers three to a side, on the rare occasions when all seven were assembled. The book that rested by his elbow was massive; two feet tall and a foot and a half wide, a thousand pages thick, fine white vellum bound between covers of bleached white leather with gold hinges and fastenings. The Book of the Brothers was its formal name, but more often it was simply called the White Book.

I think Brienne will survive and be the one to write Jaime's deeds in the White Book.

Cersei is done for and her end will be particularly gruesome if she hooks up with Euron which I think is likely.

Those are the beats that I'll be looking for in the story. 

[Brad Stark]

Is Cersei hooking up with Euron a thing in the books?  He really isn't her type. 

[LynnS]

6 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

Is Cersei hooking up with Euron a thing in the books?  He really isn't her type. 

I think he will offer to join forces with her and she will take him up on it thinking she can play him.  But I doubt she'll have the upper hand and there is Aeron's vision of the mad woman standing beneath the iron throne.   I'm guessing that's Cersei his Casterly 'rock' wife. 

[JNR]

14 hours ago, Matthew. said:

In the books, we might expect many of these ideas to be explored through conflict with Young Griff.

I not only agree, but consider it overwhelmingly likely GRRM originally had this concept in mind in naming A Dance with Dragons.  That title is meant to evoke, and echo, the historical dance with dragons.

Unfortunately, as GRRM often does, he then blew far too much of his available wordcount on the chapters leading up to the main event, so... there was no actual dance with dragons in the book and the title was nonsensical.

But there will probably be such a conflict, if TWOW comes out... which in turn may not include any winds of winter.  Those would turn up in ADOS, which presumably would not include any dreams of spring because it wouldn't be the last book.

13 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

GRRM told us something magical happened which threw off the seasons.   I might be mixing SSMs, but didn't he also say something in Ashai?

I don't recall such an SSM but would be glad to read it if you can find it. 

Asshai has primarily come up in the context of whether it will ever appear in the series, and if so, how.

[Melifeather]

5 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

I do believe he could be a Dayne but SOTM role is given to Gerold Dayne now...

Why do you believe Darkstar is the Sword of the Morning? I got the impression he was the black sheep of the Dayne's.

[asongofheresy]

15 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Why do you believe Darkstar is the Sword of the Morning? I got the impression he was the black sheep of the Dayne's.

No, Darkstar is actually bitter people only know Arthur when his house goes back to Dawn age and I believe his father was a sibling to Ashara and Arthur thus he can be heir to Starfall and a legimate SOTM without the five year gap. 

[Brad Stark]

Gerold is from the cadet branch of High Hermitage, not so closely related to Arthur and Ashara.  He still could be Sword of the Morning, as we don't know exactly how they are chosen, but a Dayne having skill with a sword seems to be main requirement. 

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Jova Snow said:

No, Darkstar is actually bitter people only know Arthur when his house goes back to Dawn age and I believe his father was a sibling to Ashara and Arthur thus he can be heir to Starfall and a legimate SOTM without the five year gap. 

Gerold is Arthur and Ashara's cousin, so his father and Arthur's father were brothers. Gerold's father must have been a younger brother to Arthur's father since he didn't inherit Starfall and had High Hermitage as his seat.

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

Gerold is from the cadet branch of High Hermitage, not so closely related to Arthur and Ashara.  He still could be Sword of the Morning, as we don't know exactly how they are chosen, but a Dayne having skill with a sword seems to be main requirement. 

Arthur has an unnamed older brother that was the heir to Starfall. Edric Dayne is the son of an also unnamed sibling of Arthur, but whether or not his father is the same elder brother remains to be confirmed. It's weird that GRRM hasn't named Arthur's male sibling(s) and only named his two sisters. Why all the secrecy? If Arthur only had the one unnamed older brother, then Edric is the heir of Starfall and presumably the next Sword of the Morning. 

[Brad Stark]

If Gerold is Arthur's first cousin, their father's were brothers.   But the way I read, they are distant cousins - only a little closer than Starks and Karnstarks.  Do we know for certain?

We know Robert called Rhaegar his cousin, even though they are second cousins. 

The Daynes are intriguing, with their Dragonlord looks and sword which could be Lightbringer, but they may not be that important to the current story.   Omission of details might not be secrecy, just a rare case of GRRM passing up the chance to write about another minor character that isn't important. 

[Matthew.]

18 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I never thought she could hold it, but it might take dragons to get rid of Cersei.

I meant it in the literal sense that I'm not sure Dany will ever physically sit the Iron Throne or occupy KL, even briefly. More specifically, I'm not sure that she sits the IT if GRRM aspires to finish within two books, or even three books.

To do any justice to the Others invasion as a plot line, I believe it already has to have been formally kicked off (eg, the Wall has failed) by the beginning of a hypothetical final book--for now, lets say that's book 7.

At the same time, Dany's hypothetical unfinished business includes the Dothraki, Meereen, obtaining passage across the Narrow Sea, the Euron plot line, having some kind of homecoming arc where we find out how various regions will react to her, and a second Dance of the Dragons with Young Griff. In the midst of all of that, there's also whatever it is that Littlefinger is planning.

IMO, GRRM either has to check off Dany's list of plot points at a pace he has never achieved up to this point (and, consequently, have many of them play out in a rushed and unsatisfying fashion), has to expand the book count, or he's going to have some of Dany's invasion arc running concurrently with the Others invading the north--and, consequently, she may be brought into the fray against the Others without all of her other issues cleanly resolved.

[Black Crow]

19 hours ago, Tucu said:

I really want GRRM to go the Varamyr route for Jon's resurrection. First because it will cause a great commotion in the R+L camp. Second because it should allow a deeper exploration of the hiveminds that seem to exist in books (Varamyr&Co, the Undying and the Weirwoods)

Well this of course is the really big omission from the Mummers version and where the greatest differences will lie in GRRM's one true text yet to come. Bran is or will be a powerful greenseer although it remains to be seen how closely his development [and fate?] will mirror that in the show, but what the Mummers have chosen to omit from their version is the fact that all the children of Winterfell are wargs and that Jon is a particularly powerful one already. How this develops will be a very big and very important part of the story yet to come. I like to think the "Varamyr route" with the Stark variation is how Jon's resurrection will go, but whatever the detail I do think that the warging [which viewers know nothing of] will be crucial and accomplished without the intervention of Our Mel

[Melifeather]

Edric himself confirmed his father was Arthur's elder brother:

Quote

Jon has a mother. Wylla, her name is Wylla. She would need to remember so she could tell him, the next time she saw him. She wondered if he would still call her "little sister." I'm not so little anymore. He'd have to call me something else. Maybe once she got to Riverrun she could write Jon a letter and tell him what Ned Dayne had said. "There was an Arthur Dayne," she remembered. "The one they called the Sword of the Morning."

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born."

Darkstar called Arthur his cousin:

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As she led the princess to the fire, Arianne found Ser Gerold behind her. "My House goes back ten thousand years, unto the dawn of days," he complained. "Why is it that my cousin is the only Dayne that anyone remembers?"

Darkstar explained who he is to Myrcella (and gives us Matthew's favorite line):

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"There was an Arthur Dayne," Myrcella said. "He was a knight of the Kingsguard in the days of Mad King Aerys."

"He was the Sword of the Morning. He is dead."

"Are you the Sword of the Morning now?"

"No. Men call me Darkstar, and I am of the night."

After Darkstar complained that all anyone ever remembers is his cousin, there's this exchange:

Quote

"He was a great knight," Ser Arys Oakheart put in.

"He had a great sword," Darkstar said.

"And a great heart." Ser Arys took Arianne by the arm. 

Why did Ser Arys say Arthur had a great heart? He was a Kingsguard same as Gerold Hightower, but while Jaime has great respect and admiration for Arthur Dayne, his feelings for Gerold are "not so much". His recollections of Gerold are sneering and you get the sense Jaime didn't like him because of his unflinching loyalty to King Aerys.

Here's something interesting and it goes along with what I have said in the past about Ned not being able to reach Starfall by way of the Prince's Pass:

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"It is all true," said the prince, with a wince of pain. Is it his gout that hurts him, or the lie? "And now Ser Gerold has fled back to High Hermitage, beyond our reach."

If High Hermitage is beyond Doran's reach, then how in the hell did Ned reach Starfall? Doran's words imply that you cannot get to High Hermitage easily.

House Dayne was founded upon the spot where a magical star had fallen:

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At the mouth of the Torrentine, House Dayne raised its castle on an island where that roaring, tumultuous river broadens to meet the sea. Legend says the first Dayne was led to the site when he followed the track of a falling star and there found a stone of magical powers. His descendants ruled over the western mountains for centuries thereafter as Kings of the Torrentine and Lords of Starfall.

Back to the Sword of the Morning, it's not a title that is automatically inherited. The position must be earned:

Quote

Though many houses have their heirloom swords, they mostly pass the blades down from lord to lord. Some, such as the Corbrays have done, may lend the blade to a son or brother for his lifetime, only to have it return to the lord. But that is not the way of House Dayne. The wielder of Dawn is always given the title of Sword of the Morning, and only a knight of House Dayne who is deemed worthy can carry it.

The description of the sword, Dawn:

Quote

The Daynes of Starfall are one of the most ancient houses in the Seven Kingdoms, though their fame largely rests on their ancestral sword, called Dawn, and the men who wielded it. Its origins are lost to legend, but it seems likely that the Daynes have carried it for thousands of years. Those who have had the honor of examining it say it looks like no Valyrian steel they know, being pale as milkglass but in all other respects it seems to share the properties of Valyrian blades, being incredibly strong and sharp.

 

18 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

To do any justice to the Others invasion as a plot line, I believe it already has to have been formally kicked off (eg, the Wall has failed) by the beginning of a hypothetical final book--for now, lets say that's book 7.

I believe it has. The wildlings are the Others and are responsible for manufacturing the white walker/wight threat in order to gain passage through the Wall. They succeeded in making Jon and Stannis believe that they are separate from the white walkers, but if that is true then why were they prevented from passing before? I recall Black Crow saying that they were simply people that were caught up when the Wall went up, but if they aren't guilty of past transgressions then they should have been able to pass back and forth through the Wall as needed or as they pleased.

18 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

At the same time, Dany's hypothetical unfinished business includes the Dothraki, Meereen, obtaining passage across the Narrow Sea, the Euron plot line, having some kind of homecoming arc where we find out how various regions will react to her, and a second Dance of the Dragons with Young Griff. In the midst of all of that, there's also whatever it is that Littlefinger is planning.

I agree Dany is a long way from crossing the Narrow Sea to Westeros. Her strength is caught up in a battle in Meereen and she just came face to face with Khal Jhaqo with fifty mounted Dothraki warriors. He's not her friend, but he wasn't around to see her dragons hatch. Maybe the sight of Drogon will change his opinion of Dany?

Maybe Dany's arrival will come after the white walkers and wights have already reached Kings Landing?

[Matthew.]

4 hours ago, JNR said:

I not only agree, but consider it overwhelmingly likely GRRM originally had this concept in mind in naming A Dance with Dragons.  That title is meant to evoke, and echo, the historical dance with dragons.

Absolutely, and in one of his more straightforward SSMs, he has even promised us a second Dance:

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Concerning_the_Dance_of_the_Dragons

Quote

Hi, short question. Will we find out more about the Dance of the Dragons in future books?

The first dance or the second?

The second will be the subject of a book. The first will be mentioned from time to time, I'm sure.

Between that, and SSMs where people ask about whether Aegon VI was really dead, what will eventually happen has felt somewhat inevitable, even before Young Griff had been introduced--which makes the pace of ADWD all the more frustrating, especially for those that waited 11 years for it.

[asongofheresy]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Edric himself confirmed his father was Arthur's elder brother:

Darkstar called Arthur his cousin:

Darkstar explained who he is to Myrcella (and gives us Matthew's favorite line):

After Darkstar complained that all anyone ever remembers is his cousin, there's this exchange:

Why did Ser Arys say Arthur had a great heart? He was a Kingsguard same as Gerold Hightower, but while Jaime has great respect and admiration for Arthur Dayne, his feelings for Gerold are "not so much". His recollections of Gerold are sneering and you get the sense Jaime didn't like him because of his unflinching loyalty to King Aerys.

Here's something interesting and it goes along with what I have said in the past about Ned not being able to reach Starfall by way of the Prince's Pass:

If High Hermitage is beyond Doran's reach, then how in the hell did Ned reach Starfall? Doran's words imply that you cannot get to High Hermitage easily.

House Dayne was founded upon the spot where a magical star had fallen:

Back to the Sword of the Morning, it's not a title that is automatically inherited. The position must be earned:

The description of the sword, Dawn:

 

I believe it has. The wildlings are the Others and are responsible for manufacturing the white walker/wight threat in order to gain passage through the Wall. They succeeded in making Jon and Stannis believe that they are separate from the white walkers, but if that is true then why were they prevented from passing before? I recall Black Crow saying that they were simply people that were caught up when the Wall went up, but if they aren't guilty of past transgressions then they should have been able to pass back and forth through the Wall as needed or as they pleased.

I agree Dany is a long way from crossing the Narrow Sea to Westeros. Her strength is caught up in a battle in Meereen and she just came face to face with Khal Jhaqo with fifty mounted Dothraki warriors. He's not her friend, but he wasn't around to see her dragons hatch. Maybe the sight of Drogon will change his opinion of Dany?

Maybe Dany's arrival will come after the white walkers and wights have already reached Kings Landing?

Darkstar is refered as Knight  Starfall so founding of HH might be recent one. 

[JNR]

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

in one of his more straightforward SSMs, he has even promised us a second Dance

He did indeed, and he also spelled out the origin of the title of ADWD in the 1993 summary:

Quote

a great invasion of the Seven Kingdoms, led by the fierce and beautiful Daenerys Stormborn, the last of the Targaryen dragonlords. The Dothraki invasion will be the central story of my second volume, A Dance with Dragons.

However, in both cases he does not spell out that it represents a conflict between two true Targs (like the first one was). 

So, technically, it's possible it just means Dany with her literal dragons invading Westeros.

But I doubt it; for me, it's all but inevitable that Aegon will turn out to be exactly who he claims to be. 

Among other things, Varys had zero reason to lie to a dying Ser Kevan, in flatly stating so... and Aegon's reality and future political prospects were Varys' primary motive to kill Kevan at all.

More subtly, Jon Connington sure seems confident Aegon will soon be winning the support of Dorne, going not just by ADWD but the TWOW sample chapters.  He's got mighty solid reasons to feel that way.

[Brad Stark]

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

Well this of course is the really big omission from the Mummers version and where the greatest differences will lie in GRRM's one true text yet to come. Bran is or will be a powerful greenseer although it remains to be seen how closely his development [and fate?] will mirror that in the show, but what the Mummers have chosen to omit from their version is the fact that all the children of Winterfell are wargs and that Jon is a particularly powerful one already. How this develops will be a very big and very important part of the story yet to come. I like to think the "Varamyr route" with the Stark variation is how Jon's resurrection will go, but whatever the detail I do think that the warging [which viewers know nothing of] will be crucial and accomplished without the intervention of Our Mel

Bran himself is almost irrelevant in the mummers version.  He had a few good lines like with Littlefinger, and was necessary to explain the Night's King's motivation, but could have entirely been left off the show like Stoneheart.   

I have to believe a Greenseer's power goes beyond staring weirdly and talking about dead Targaryens.  The Warg powers might only involve the wolves, which being beyond the nondragon effects budget,  is a more understandable omission. 

[Black Crow]

And of course, while the Mummers left out the all-important Stark warging [and totally ignored the significance of Ghost] , on the political front they missed out Aegon - unless of course that's the reason for re-naming Jon as Aegon Targaryen !

While prophecy can be a dodgy business so far as Westeros is concerned I can confidently predict that in GRRM's version we are on the one hand going to find the Stark warging powers being very important, not just for Bran but for Jon and his sisters and Winterfell itself. While on the political front there will be a Dance of the Dragons featuring Danaerys Targaryen on the one hand and an Aegon Targaryen [?] - who isn't R+L=Jon Targaryen on the other.

There's an awful lot still to come from GRRM which will owe nothing to the Mummers

[asongofheresy]

@LynnS I hope Rickon will survive! 

I know this may not be the right time to ask questions about rebellion timeline but - is it possible Elia visited Dorne after birth of Elia because Prince of Dorne died at that time? And is there any significance for Rhaegar to hide during most of the rebellion until Trident? Is it possible for third child to born before the Trident? Or is it possible Rhaegar leaved once he was sure the mother was pregnant and won't have a miscarriage? 

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

Bran himself is almost irrelevant in the mummers version.  

Yep. At best, what Bran has chosen to reveal (and not reveal) to other characters might be read as some kind of long-term plan to help manufacture the crisis at KL - the end result of which will likely be that any remaining threats to House Stark will neutralize one another - but even that seems an underwhelming end result for his powers.

[Black Crow]

I also have to wonder, going forward. about this bittersweet ending; whether GRRM has in mind the death [or worse] of a beloved character, say Bran for example [without making predictions] or whether he something grander in view.